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-----Original Message-----
From: Peter Moulton [mailto:Peter@climatesolutions.org]
Sent: Wednesday, November 29, 2006 5:01 PM
To: biofuels4oregon@lists.onenw.org
Subject: [biofuels4oregon] A Bright Future for Biofuels Pt 2

A Bright Future for Biofuels by Mason H. Somerville, Ph.D., P.E. (cont’d) 

Sustainability supported by biofuels

The developing biofuels industry offers opportunities to address both the finite nature of our fossil resources and the sustainability issues of CO2 production and climate change. Biofuels include biodiesel made from lipid oils derived from oil seed bearing plants such as Soybeans, Canola, Palm and Algae.  Other important biofuels include the production of ethanol from plant-produced cellulose.  The production of ethanol from grains is well established.  However, energy analyses indicate that it may be one of the least efficient processes to produce ethanol.  No matter which biofuels emerge, it is clear that a wide variety will be necessary as we transition over the next two to three decades to biofuels.

The Market Opportunity

The magnitude of the opportunity and difficulty of displacing existing fossil fuels (especially the liquid ones) with sustainable biofuels cannot be understated.  The world has learned from the U.S. experience that access to inexpensive energy is an important key to continuing economic development.  There are many data sources for the world's consumption of energy; for the purposes of the following general discussion, BP's data are used.

Figures 1 and 2 summarize primary energy (oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and hydroelectric) consumption over time for the world and some key nations. Several important conclusions can be drawn from these data when combined with other information:  

• For over four decades, the world's consumption of energy has been growing at a rate substantially faster than the United States'
• World energy use is growing at a rate faster than the population (world population doubled from 1965 to 2005 - energy use increased by a factor of about 2.7)
• China and India's energy usages are accelerating (on both a total and a per capita basis) faster than the world's consumption rate
• Between 2004 and 2005, China, India and the U.S. increases were 9.1%, 3.1 % and -0.1% respectively, while the world's use changed by 2.4% (the minimum change was -10% and the maximum was 16%)
• The U.S. remains the largest single user of energy at 22.2% of the world's consumption; China and India consumption fractions are 14.7% and 3.7% respectively
• In 2005, fossil energy resources accounted for about 88% of the primary energy consumption in the world: oil (36.4%), natural gas (23.5%) and coal (27.8%)
• The 2005 fractional splits for the U.S. are similar to the world's: oil (40.4%), natural gas (24.4%) and coal (24.6 %)

Conclusion

It now appears that the costs to manufacture biofuels (both ethanol and biodiesel) are close to those of the fossil fuel market.  The price uncertainty in the market is, in large part, driven by politics as much as it is by economics.  In spite of politics and economics, the following points seem to be pertinent in considering the future choices for developing biofuels:   

• Today, biofuels offer a realistic and sustainable substitute for a transportation based fuel: they meet the sustainability test, they are currently competitive with fossil fuels, they possess the energy storage density required and they can be distributed using much of the existing fossil fuel distribution infrastructure
• There is limited time to accomplish the transition because the fossil resource is finite and, in the case of oil reserves, may be near to or past its Hubbert peak.
• The world's fossil energy resources will peak, followed by price increases and attendant production decreases. Oil is likely to be the first such fossil resource to experience this decline
• Hubbert's reservoir work and its applicability to global finite energy resources (oil and all other finite resources) remains intact even though economics and technology will affect reserve data
• Countries that develop technologies to create sustainable fuels from biological resources will be assured a strong place in the world economy
• Central to finding acceptable alternatives are the issues related to sustainability including: growth cycles, land use, solar collection efficiency, energy storage density, economics and environmental impacts of different technologies

The use of energy resources by the world's developing nations is growing at a rate several times that of the developed nations and this trend can be expected to continue.  Finding sustainable food and energy supplies in a finite world with a growing population will clearly challenge us and the next generation.  We have unlimited opportunities as we try to meet these challenges. It is an enormous undertaking but one that certainly bodes well for the future of biofuels.

 Figure 1: Primary Energy Consumption 1965 through 2005, Million Tonnes Oil

 Figure 2: USA, China and India - Primary Energy Consumption, 1965 - 2005, Million Tonnes Oil

References: 

World consumption of energy: www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=91&contentId=7017990

Oil reserves:  www.peakoil.net, www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net, www.hubbertpeak.com, http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/

(Source: Biographic Notes on Dr Somerville:  Dr. Somerville is currently employed as a Professor at the State University of New York Institute of Technology (SUNYIT) and is assigned to Morrisville State College where he is working on sustainable energy system technologies.  He served as President of SUNYIT from 2002 through 2004.  He held the position of Interim Provost at Northern Arizona University (NAU) during the academic year 2000 -'01 and served as Dean of Engineering at NAU from 1994 through 2002.  He was Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Dean of Engineering at Texas Tech University from 1984 through 1994 and was Professor and Chairman of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Arkansas from 1980 through 1984.  He started his career at the University of North Dakota (UND) in 1973 where he held the positions of Assistant and then Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering until joining the University of Arkansas in 1980.  In 1975, he was appointed Manager of the UND Engineering Experiment Station and was promoted to Director in 1977.  From 1971 through 1973, he was a Senior Engineer at the Bettis Atomic Power Laboratory where he worked in thermal and hydraulic design and testing programs of nuclear reactors.  Dr. Somerville has worked in the energy field since he was an undergraduate student in 1962 and remained technically active through 1984.  In 2004, following his administrative assignments, he reinitiated his active work in the energy field.   He has over 30 publications and has conducted over 30 projects as the principal investigator.   He has worked as a consultant to utility companies, heat pump manufacturers and other energy related enterprises.  He has formed two not-for-profit corporations, both dealing with sustainable energy, and one for-profit company.  Dr. Somerville holds three degrees in Mechanical Engineering: Worcester Polytechnic Institute (B.S.), Northeastern University (M.S.) and The Pennsylvania State University (Ph.D.). He resides in Marcy, N.Y.)

Contact:  Mason H. Somerville, (315) 793-9984, mason1221@gmail.com

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