You might find this of interest. But last I heard, William Gray thinks global
warming's influence on tropical storm activity is minimal to say the least.
Thus his credibility on this issue may be suspect as well, as usual, - though
he's "now giving more of [his] efforts to the global warming issue and in
synthesizing [his] projects' many years of hurricane and typhoon studies."
Tim

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE
ACTIVITY AND U.S. LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2008
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2008/april2008/apr2008.pdf

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE
LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for
last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average
for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean


ABSTRACT

Information obtained through March 2008 indicates that the 2008 Atlantic
hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000
season. We
estimate that 2008 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 15
named storms
(average is 9.6), 80 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane
days (average is
24.5), 4 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 9
intense hurricane days
(average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall
is estimated to be about
135 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net
Tropical Cyclone
(NTC) activity in 2008 to be approximately 160 percent of the
long-term average. We
have increased our seasonal forecast from early December.
[...]
The current early April forecast consists of a new set of two
predictors along with
an adjustment based on our early December forecast. This new
forecast approach has
shown appreciable hindcast skill (r2 = 0.64) over the last 58 years
(1950-2007). It is
surprising that the global atmosphere-ocean system has such a strong
extended-range
predictive signal. This scheme also shows appreciable hindcast skill
over the more recent
13-year period from 1995-2007 (r2 = 0.57) for which our previous
early April schemes
have not been able to show real-time forecast skill over climatology.

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