>-----Original Message-----
>From: fmo-bounce@...
>[mailto:fmo-bounce@...] On Behalf Of Marco Langbroek
>Sent: Monday, October 06, 2008 1:13 PM
>To: FMO lijst
>Subject: [FMO] [Fwd: NEO News (10/06/08) Bolide impact
>predicted tonight]
>
>
>
>-------- Originele bericht --------
>Onderwerp: NEO News (10/06/08) Bolide impact predicted tonight
>Datum: Mon, 6 Oct 2008 12:57:05 -0700
>Van: David Morrison <david.morrison@...>
>Aan: David Morrison <david.morrison@...>
>
>
>NEO News (10/06/08) Bolide impact predicted tonight!
>
>This is a first: a very small asteroid (or rock) has been
>discovered that is on course for an impact tonight in Sudan.
>This information is from various reports to posted to MPML
>(the Minor Planet Mailing List at
>groups.yahoo.com/group/mpml/). The impactor is only about 2 m
>across and will break up in the atmosphere, with no risk to
>those on the ground. (If something this size hit in the
>daytime, it would probably not be noticed, but at night it
>should put on quite show).
>
>Alan Harris writes that this object, with the survey-assigned
>designation 8TA9D69, was discovered by the University of Arizona Mt.
>Lemmon survey and will almost certainly, tonight, become the
>first impacting bolide discovered before entry into the
>Earth's atmosphere.
>Steve Chesley (JPL) reports that atmospheric entry will occur
>on 2008 Oct 07 0246 UTC over northern Sudan.
>
>Andrea Milani of the University of Pisa wrote the following:
>Today the object with the provisional designation 8TA9D69 was
>submitted to impact monitoring by using the normal software of
>the NEODyS system, by using the observations as reported by
>the MPC on the NEO Confirmation Page. Based on 26 optical
>observations from
>2008/10/06.278 to 2008/10/06, the probability of impact is
>between 99.8% and 100%; in practice the impact can be
>considered sure and is for tonight. Our computation has
>already been confirmed independently by others, including the
>JPL NEO Program Office (with which we consult in all relevant
>cases of possible impact). The effect of this atmospheric
>impact will be the release, in either a single shot or maybe a
>sequence of explosions, of about 1 kiloton of energy. This
>means that the damage on the ground is expected to be zero.
>The location of these explosions is not easy to predict due to
>the atmospheric braking effects. The only concern is that they
>might be interpreted as something else, that is man-made
>explosions. Thus in this case, the earlier the public
>worldwide is aware that this is a natural phenomenon, which
>involves no risk, the better.
>
>This is the first time an asteroid impact has been predicted,
>and it reflects the increasing capability of the Spaceguard
>Survey. There was one previous false alarm when, for a few
>hours around Christmas 2004, it appeared that an impact by a
>30-m asteroid was possible, but this was ruled out by
>additional observations. The current case, however, seems much
>more solid.
>
>David Morrison
>--
>+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
>
>NEO News (now in its fourteenth year of distribution) is an
>informal compilation of news and opinion dealing with Near
>Earth Objects
>(NEOs) and their impacts. These opinions are the
>responsibility of the individual authors and do not represent
>the positions of NASA, Ames Research Center, the International
>Astronomical Union, or any other organization. To subscribe
>(or unsubscribe) contact dmorrison@.... For
>additional information, please see the website
>http://impact.arc.nasa.gov. If anyone wishes to copy or
>redistribute original material from these notes, fully or in
>part, please include this disclaimer.
>
>
>
>
>
>
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