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#962 From: DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tue Aug 25, 2009 4:04 pm
Subject: DRSG Teleconference, 9/1/2009, 12:00 pm
DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Send Email Send Email
 
Reminder from:   DRSG Yahoo! Group
 
Title:   DRSG Teleconference
 
Date:   Tuesday September 1, 2009
Time:   12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Repeats:   This event repeats every month on the first Tuesday.
Next reminder:   The next reminder for this event will be sent in 5 days, 23 hours, 55 minutes.
Notes:   Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on the first Tuesday of the month. We have 25 lines available for the call.

CALL IN NUMBER: 513-569-7897
CONFEREE CODE: 7217 plus the # sign.
For problem resolution during the call, contact the Help Desk at 513-569-7754.
 
Copyright © 2009  Yahoo! Inc. All Rights Reserved | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy

#963 From: "Feder, Paul I" <feder@...>
Date: Wed Aug 26, 2009 10:01 pm
Subject: SRA DRSG September 1 Teleseminar Announcement
feder@...
Send Email Send Email
 

Society for Risk Analysis

Dose Response Specialty Group

 

September 2009 Teleconference
Tuesday, September 1, 2009 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm edt

Jeff Gift, Moderator
USEPA, National Center for Environmental Assessment

Introduction: Jeff Gift

 

Presentation: Paul Price, The Dow Chemical Company

“Using Empirical Data on Toxicity Pathways in the Prediction of Responses at Low Doses”

 

Discussion: Led by Dr. Richard Sedman, California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment

 

Call in Number: 513-569-7897 Conference Code: 7217 plus the # sign.
For problem resolution during the call, contact the Help Desk at 513-569-7754

 

Link to access the slides:

           

Power-point version:

http://www.sra.org/drsg/docs/Empir-low-dose_PPrice.ppt

 

PDF version:

http://www.sra.org/drsg/docs/Empir-low-dose_PPrice.pdf

 

Submit questions and issues for discussion prior to and after the teleseminar to:
NAS08report@yahoogroups.com

 

Biosketches:

 

Paul Price has a BA in chemistry and MS in Civil Engineering form the University of Maryland.  His career has included seven years at the USEPA, five years at the American Petroleum Institute, ten years as a consultant, and six years running a nonprofit research organization. Mr. Price has been with Dow since 2006.   During this career he has published 30 papers and book chapters in the area of exposure and risk assessment and has made more than 100 presentations at professional meetings.  Areas if research include use of probabilistic models to characterize uncertainty and variation, software development, safety factors, and the integration of exposure, PBPK, and Biologically Based Dose Response Models.

 

Richard Sedman received a B.S in cell biology and microbiology from the University of Michigan and a Ph.D. in Pharmacology/Toxicology from the University of Iowa.  Experience includes 5 years in drug development and toxicological evaluation and 20+ years in regulatory toxicology with the states of Oregon and California where he currently is employed with OEHHA, The Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment.

 

Abstract/Summary:

 

Toxicologists have argued that statisticians who model dose response do not understand biology and are too quick to reject the possibility of thresholds. Statisticians have, in turn, pointed out that toxicologists do not understand the statistical limitations of animal testing.

 

Statisticians look at the frequency of the occurrence of apical effects at various doses and predict responses at other doses by fitting dose response functions. Since toxicity studies use finite numbers of animals, the shape of dose response curves at low doses cannot be derived from the response data and must be based on data on the mechanism of action (MOA) or on policy. Where the available MOA data do not support arguments for a threshold, the precautionary principle has required the use of a linear low dose model. Under these circumstances, the goal of dose response modeler is to efficiently predict the point of departure in a transparent and consistent manner and to assume linearity in response at lower doses. The results are predictions of low levels of the apical effect at doses orders of magnitude below the NOAEL. These predictions suggest that cases of the apical effect would occur if sufficient animals (1,000 - 100,000) were tested.

 

In contrast, toxicologists look at animal data and at high doses see apical effect, at lower doses see the precursors to the apical effect, and at still lower doses see no dose-related effects. Based on the assumption that unless the precursor effects occur, there is no chance for the apical effect to occur, toxicologists have asserted that there is no chance of apical effect at lowest doses even if unlimited numbers of animals were tested (e.g. a threshold exists).

 

This talk will attempt to reconcile these two views by performing a “gedanken” experiment that applies the concepts of toxicity pathways and multistage dose response modeling to the issue of low dose extrapolation.  The results of the exercise suggest that:

1)      Where a chemical affects multiple stages in a toxicity pathway and where the background occurrence rates of animals for interim stages in a pathway are zero, the precautionary principle can be satisfied by a power function rather than a linear model.

2)      Such power functions can behave very much like thresholds. 

3)      Toxicological studies need to include measurements of precursor events (including toxicokinetic data) in addition to apical effects and such data should be considered by statisticians in modeling responses at low doses.

4)      MOA data will be most useful when it includes quantitative dose-response information for multiple steps in the toxicity pathway.

 

 

 


1 of 1 File(s)


#964 From: "Feder, Paul I" <feder@...>
Date: Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:10 pm
Subject: SRA DRSG September 1 Teleseminar Announcement CORRECTION FOR CALL IN NUMBER
feder@...
Send Email Send Email
 

Society for Risk Analysis

Dose Response Specialty Group

 

September 2009 Teleconference
Tuesday, September 1, 2009 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm edt   CORRECTION FOR CALL IN NUMBER

Jeff Gift, Moderator
USEPA, National Center for Environmental Assessment

Introduction: Jeff Gift

 

Presentation: Paul Price, The Dow Chemical Company

“Using Empirical Data on Toxicity Pathways in the Prediction of Responses at Low Doses”

 

Discussion: Led by Dr. Richard Sedman, California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment

 

Call in Number: 1-866-299-3188 Conference Code 9195414155#

(Phone lines will be open 5 minutes before the start of the meeting. We have added extra lines for this call, but encourage you to join with nearby colleagues and use speaker-phones to assure as many participants as possible.)

 

Link to access the slides:

           

Power-point version:

http://www.sra.org/drsg/docs/Empir-low-dose_PPrice.ppt

 

PDF version:

http://www.sra.org/drsg/docs/Empir-low-dose_PPrice.pdf

 

Submit questions and issues for discussion prior to and after the teleseminar to:
NAS08report@yahoogroups.com

 

Biosketches:

 

Paul Price has a BA in chemistry and MS in Civil Engineering form the University of Maryland.  His career has included seven years at the USEPA, five years at the American Petroleum Institute, ten years as a consultant, and six years running a nonprofit research organization. Mr. Price has been with Dow since 2006.   During this career he has published 30 papers and book chapters in the area of exposure and risk assessment and has made more than 100 presentations at professional meetings.  Areas if research include use of probabilistic models to characterize uncertainty and variation, software development, safety factors, and the integration of exposure, PBPK, and Biologically Based Dose Response Models.

 

Richard Sedman received a B.S in cell biology and microbiology from the University of Michigan and a Ph.D. in Pharmacology/Toxicology from the University of Iowa.  Experience includes 5 years in drug development and toxicological evaluation and 20+ years in regulatory toxicology with the states of Oregon and California where he currently is employed with OEHHA, The Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment.

 

Abstract/Summary:

 

Toxicologists have argued that statisticians who model dose response do not understand biology and are too quick to reject the possibility of thresholds. Statisticians have, in turn, pointed out that toxicologists do not understand the statistical limitations of animal testing.

 

Statisticians look at the frequency of the occurrence of apical effects at various doses and predict responses at other doses by fitting dose response functions. Since toxicity studies use finite numbers of animals, the shape of dose response curves at low doses cannot be derived from the response data and must be based on data on the mechanism of action (MOA) or on policy. Where the available MOA data do not support arguments for a threshold, the precautionary principle has required the use of a linear low dose model. Under these circumstances, the goal of dose response modeler is to efficiently predict the point of departure in a transparent and consistent manner and to assume linearity in response at lower doses. The results are predictions of low levels of the apical effect at doses orders of magnitude below the NOAEL. These predictions suggest that cases of the apical effect would occur if sufficient animals (1,000 - 100,000) were tested.

 

In contrast, toxicologists look at animal data and at high doses see apical effect, at lower doses see the precursors to the apical effect, and at still lower doses see no dose-related effects. Based on the assumption that unless the precursor effects occur, there is no chance for the apical effect to occur, toxicologists have asserted that there is no chance of apical effect at lowest doses even if unlimited numbers of animals were tested (e.g. a threshold exists).

 

This talk will attempt to reconcile these two views by performing a “gedanken” experiment that applies the concepts of toxicity pathways and multistage dose response modeling to the issue of low dose extrapolation.  The results of the exercise suggest that:

1)      Where a chemical affects multiple stages in a toxicity pathway and where the background occurrence rates of animals for interim stages in a pathway are zero, the precautionary principle can be satisfied by a power function rather than a linear model.

2)      Such power functions can behave very much like thresholds. 

3)      Toxicological studies need to include measurements of precursor events (including toxicokinetic data) in addition to apical effects and such data should be considered by statisticians in modeling responses at low doses.

4)      MOA data will be most useful when it includes quantitative dose-response information for multiple steps in the toxicity pathway.

 

 

 


1 of 1 File(s)


#965 From: DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Date: Mon Aug 31, 2009 4:04 pm
Subject: DRSG Teleconference, 9/1/2009, 12:00 pm
DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Send Email Send Email
 
Reminder from:   DRSG Yahoo! Group
 
Title:   DRSG Teleconference
 
Date:   Tuesday September 1, 2009
Time:   12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Repeats:   This event repeats every month on the first Tuesday.
Notes:   Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on the first Tuesday of the month. We have 25 lines available for the call.

CALL IN NUMBER: 513-569-7897
CONFEREE CODE: 7217 plus the # sign.
For problem resolution during the call, contact the Help Desk at 513-569-7754.
 
Copyright © 2009  Yahoo! Inc. All Rights Reserved | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy

#966 From: "Feder, Paul I" <feder@...>
Date: Mon Aug 31, 2009 4:14 pm
Subject: RE: DRSG Teleconference, 9/1/2009, 12:00 pm CORRECTION OF CALL IN NUMBER
feder@...
Send Email Send Email
 

The call in number given in the automated Yahoo Groups announcement below is incorrect.  The correct call in number is the one directly below.  I also include the link to download the slides.

Sorry for the confusion.

Paul Feder

Call in Number: 1-866-299-3188 Conference Code 9195414155#

(Phone lines will be open 5 minutes before the start of the meeting. We have added extra lines for this call, but encourage you to join with nearby colleagues and use speaker-phones to assure as many participants as possible.)

 

Link to access the slides:

           

Power-point version:

http://www.sra.org/drsg/docs/Empir-low-dose_PPrice.ppt

 

PDF version:

http://www.sra.org/drsg/docs/Empir-low-dose_PPrice.pdf

 

 

Paul Feder

 

Paul Feder, PhD

Battelle

Statistics and Information Analysis

505 King Avenue  Room 11-7060

Columbus, OH 43201

Phone: 614 424-4525

Fax:      614 458-4525

email:   feder@...

 

 


From: DRSG@yahoogroups.com [mailto:DRSG@yahoogroups.com]
Sent: Monday, August 31, 2009 12:04 PM
To: DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [DRSG] DRSG Teleconference, 9/1/2009, 12:00 pm

 




Reminder from:

 

DRSG Yahoo! Group

 

Title:

 

DRSG Teleconference

 

Date:

 

Tuesday September 1, 2009

Time:

 

12:00 pm - 1:00 pm

Repeats:

 

This event repeats every month on the first Tuesday.

Notes:

 

Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on the first Tuesday of the month. We have 25 lines available for the call.

CALL IN NUMBER: 513-569-7897
CONFEREE CODE: 7217 plus the # sign.
For problem resolution during the call, contact the Help Desk at 513-569-7754.

 

Copyright © 2009  Yahoo! Inc. All Rights Reserved | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy



#967 From: DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tue Sep 29, 2009 4:06 pm
Subject: DRSG Teleconference, 10/6/2009, 12:00 pm
DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Send Email Send Email
 
Reminder from:   DRSG Yahoo! Group
 
Title:   DRSG Teleconference
 
Date:   Tuesday October 6, 2009
Time:   12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Next reminder:   The next reminder for this event will be sent in 5 days, 23 hours, 54 minutes.
Notes:   Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on October 6, 2009 (first Tuesday of the month). We have a high-capacity line available for the call, but callers in a particular are still encouraged to gather and use a speaker-phone.

Call in Number: 1-866-299-3188
Conference Code: 919 541 4155 #

 
Copyright © 2009  Yahoo! Inc. All Rights Reserved | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy

#968 From: "Julie Fitzpatrick" <juliefitzpatrick@...>
Date: Mon Oct 5, 2009 1:04 pm
Subject: Re: DRSG Teleconference, 10/6/2009, 12:00 pm
juliewkeller
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All,
 
Please see the attached minutes from the 9/1/09 Meeting.
 
Regards,
Julie Fitzpatrick
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, September 29, 2009 12:06 PM
Subject: [DRSG] DRSG Teleconference, 10/6/2009, 12:00 pm

Reminder from:   DRSG Yahoo! Group
 
Title:   DRSG Teleconference
 
Date:   Tuesday October 6, 2009
Time:   12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Next reminder:   The next reminder for this event will be sent in 5 days, 23 hours, 54 minutes.
Notes:   Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on October 6, 2009 (first Tuesday of the month). We have a high-capacity line available for the call, but callers in a particular are still encouraged to gather and use a speaker-phone.

Call in Number: 1-866-299-3188
Conference Code: 919 541 4155 #

 
Copyright 2009  Yahoo! Inc. All Rights Reserved | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy

1 of 1 File(s)


#969 From: cynthia.m.davin@...
Date: Mon Oct 5, 2009 1:39 pm
Subject: Davin, Cynthia M is out of the office.
cynthia.m.davin@...
Send Email Send Email
 
I will be out of the office starting  10/03/2009 and will not return until
10/12/2009.

I am out of the office on vacation.

#970 From: DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Date: Mon Oct 5, 2009 4:04 pm
Subject: DRSG Teleconference, 10/6/2009, 12:00 pm
DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Send Email Send Email
 
Reminder from:   DRSG Yahoo! Group
 
Title:   DRSG Teleconference
 
Date:   Tuesday October 6, 2009
Time:   12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Notes:   Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on October 6, 2009 (first Tuesday of the month). We have a high-capacity line available for the call, but callers in a particular are still encouraged to gather and use a speaker-phone.

Call in Number: 1-866-299-3188
Conference Code: 919 541 4155 #

 
Copyright © 2009  Yahoo! Inc. All Rights Reserved | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy

#971 From: gift.jeff@...
Date: Mon Oct 5, 2009 4:19 pm
Subject: SRA DRSG Teleseminar Presentation by David Dix of NCCT Tomorrow, October 6, 2009
jsgift
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Society for Risk Analysis
Dose Response Specialty Group

October 2009 Teleconference
Tuesday, October 6, 2009 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm edt

Jeff Gift, Moderator
USEPA, National Center for Environmental Assessment

Presentation: David J. Dix, National Center for Computational
Toxicology, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
“High Throughput Screening for Hazard and Risk of Environmental
Contaminants”

Call in Number: 1-866-299-3188 Conference Code 9195414155#
(Phone lines will be open 5 minutes before the start of the meeting. We
have added extra lines for this call, but encourage you to join with
nearby colleagues and use speaker-phones to assure as many participants
as possible.)

    Link to access the slides:

PDF version:
    http://www.sra.org/drsg/docs/Dix_6Oct09.pdf

Submit questions and issues for discussion prior to and after the
teleseminar to:
NAS08report@yahoogroups.com


David Dix is the Acting Deputy Director of the National Center for
Computational Toxicology, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Abstract:

High throughput toxicity testing provides detailed mechanistic
information on the concentration response of environmental contaminants
in numerous potential toxicity pathways. High throughput screening (HTS)
has several key advantages: (1) expense orders of magnitude less than
animal testing; (2) direct study of human gene, protein and cell targets
is possible; and (3) hundreds to thousands of contaminants can be
studied simultaneously. Quantitative HTS hazard assessment can thus
identify potential mechanisms and pathways by which a contaminant can
lead to specific adverse outcomes. EPA’s ToxCast project is evaluating
the use of HTS for understanding the types of molecular and pathway
perturbations caused by environmental chemicals, and building initial
predictive models of in vivo toxicity for prioritization and hazard
assessment. To date we have tested 309 pesticide active and industrial
chemicals in 467 assays across 9 HTS technologies. These include
cell-free assays, as well as cell-based assays in a variety of human and
rodent primary cells and cell lines. Individual assays and composite
assays for effects on genes and pathways demonstrated a broad spectrum
of chemical activity at the molecular and pathway levels. Many expected
interactions were seen in the data, including endocrine and xenobiotic
metabolism enzyme activity. Chemicals show widely varying promiscuity
across pathways, from no activity to activity in dozens of pathways.
This diversity of behavior is seen even within well-defined chemical
classes. This approach promises to provide meaningful data on thousands
of untested environmental chemicals, and to guide more intelligent,
targeted testing of environmental contaminants in the future. This
abstract may not necessarily reflect Agency policy.



  (See attached file: October 6 2009 Teleseminar.doc)

1 of 1 File(s)


#972 From: "Feder, Paul I" <feder@...>
Date: Mon Oct 5, 2009 6:15 pm
Subject: SRA DRSG October 6, 2009 Teleseminar Announcement
feder@...
Send Email Send Email
 

Society for Risk Analysis

Dose Response Specialty Group

 

October 2009 Teleconference
Tuesday, October 6, 2009 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm edt

Jeff Gift, Moderator
USEPA, National Center for Environmental Assessment

 

Presentation: David J. Dix, National Center for Computational Toxicology, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

“High Throughput Screening for Hazard and Risk of Environmental Contaminants”

 

Call in Number: 1-866-299-3188 Conference Code 9195414155#

(Phone lines will be open 5 minutes before the start of the meeting. We have added extra lines for this call, but encourage you to join with nearby colleagues and use speaker-phones to assure as many participants as possible.)

 

Link to access the slides:

           

PDF version:

http://www.sra.org/drsg/docs/Dix_6Oct09.pdf

 

Submit questions and issues for discussion prior to and after the teleseminar to:
NAS08report@yahoogroups.com

 

 

David Dix is the Acting Deputy Director of the National Center for Computational Toxicology, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

 

Abstract:

 

High throughput toxicity testing provides detailed mechanistic information on the concentration response of environmental contaminants in numerous potential toxicity pathways. High throughput screening (HTS) has several key advantages: (1) expense orders of magnitude less than animal testing; (2) direct study of human gene, protein and cell targets is possible; and (3) hundreds to thousands of contaminants can be studied simultaneously. Quantitative HTS hazard assessment can thus identify potential mechanisms and pathways by which a contaminant can lead to specific adverse outcomes. EPA’s ToxCast project is evaluating the use of HTS for understanding the types of molecular and pathway perturbations caused by environmental chemicals, and building initial predictive models of in vivo toxicity for prioritization and hazard assessment. To date we have tested 309 pesticide active and industrial chemicals in 467 assays across 9 HTS technologies. These include cell-free assays, as well as cell-based assays in a variety of human and rodent primary cells and cell lines. Individual assays and composite assays for effects on genes and pathways demonstrated a broad spectrum of chemical activity at the molecular and pathway levels. Many expected interactions were seen in the data, including endocrine and xenobiotic metabolism enzyme activity. Chemicals show widely varying promiscuity across pathways, from no activity to activity in dozens of pathways. This diversity of behavior is seen even within well-defined chemical classes. This approach promises to provide meaningful data on thousands of untested environmental chemicals, and to guide more intelligent, targeted testing of environmental contaminants in the future. This abstract may not necessarily reflect Agency policy.

 

 

 

 


1 of 1 File(s)


#973 From: "Feder, Paul I" <feder@...>
Date: Mon Oct 5, 2009 3:38 pm
Subject: SRA DRSG October 6, 2009 Teleseminar Announcement
feder@...
Send Email Send Email
 

Society for Risk Analysis

Dose Response Specialty Group

 

October 2009 Teleconference
Tuesday, October 6, 2009 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm edt

Jeff Gift, Moderator
USEPA, National Center for Environmental Assessment

 

Presentation: David J. Dix, National Center for Computational Toxicology, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

“High Throughput Screening for Hazard and Risk of Environmental Contaminants”

 

Call in Number: 1-866-299-3188 Conference Code 9195414155#

(Phone lines will be open 5 minutes before the start of the meeting. We have added extra lines for this call, but encourage you to join with nearby colleagues and use speaker-phones to assure as many participants as possible.)

 

Link to access the slides:

           

PDF version:

http://www.sra.org/drsg/docs/Dix_6Oct09.pdf

 

Submit questions and issues for discussion prior to and after the teleseminar to:
NAS08report@yahoogroups.com

 

 

David Dix is the Acting Deputy Director of the National Center for Computational Toxicology, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

 

Abstract:

 

High throughput toxicity testing provides detailed mechanistic information on the concentration response of environmental contaminants in numerous potential toxicity pathways. High throughput screening (HTS) has several key advantages: (1) expense orders of magnitude less than animal testing; (2) direct study of human gene, protein and cell targets is possible; and (3) hundreds to thousands of contaminants can be studied simultaneously. Quantitative HTS hazard assessment can thus identify potential mechanisms and pathways by which a contaminant can lead to specific adverse outcomes. EPA’s ToxCast project is evaluating the use of HTS for understanding the types of molecular and pathway perturbations caused by environmental chemicals, and building initial predictive models of in vivo toxicity for prioritization and hazard assessment. To date we have tested 309 pesticide active and industrial chemicals in 467 assays across 9 HTS technologies. These include cell-free assays, as well as cell-based assays in a variety of human and rodent primary cells and cell lines. Individual assays and composite assays for effects on genes and pathways demonstrated a broad spectrum of chemical activity at the molecular and pathway levels. Many expected interactions were seen in the data, including endocrine and xenobiotic metabolism enzyme activity. Chemicals show widely varying promiscuity across pathways, from no activity to activity in dozens of pathways. This diversity of behavior is seen even within well-defined chemical classes. This approach promises to provide meaningful data on thousands of untested environmental chemicals, and to guide more intelligent, targeted testing of environmental contaminants in the future. This abstract may not necessarily reflect Agency policy.

 

 

 

 


1 of 1 File(s)


#974 From: Michael Dourson <dourson@...>
Date: Wed Oct 7, 2009 8:54 pm
Subject: Threshold for Adverse Effect
dourson@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Dear Colleagues

I thoroughly enjoyed our email discussion of "threshold" for adverse effect last spring and wish for us to continue.  However, let's perhaps restart this email stream with some existing definitions of "threshold."   This will allow our deliberations and conclusions to perhaps be more understandable to our colleagues who have not taken as much time to study this issue.  

One of definition of threshold from Wikipedia is:
The point where one mentally or physically is vulnerable in response to provocation or to particular things in general, as in emotions, stress, or pain.

Another one from the dictionary on my word software is:
Level at which effect starts

Casarett & Doull (2008—page 23) define it as:
...some dose below which the probability of an individual responding is zero.

Other definitions as starting points are of course welcome.  Based on these definitions, and probably ones that we could get elsewhere, one immediately recognizes that all chemicals have a threshold for adverse effect, since at least one molecule of a chemical is needed to evoke the adverse effect.  It is not correct to say that some chemicals do not have a threshold for an adverse effect.

The question before many of us, thus, is not whether a chemical has a threshold---since all chemicals do---but rather can it be that this threshold is one molecule of a chemical.  Another way to state the question is whether a chemical can have a subthreshold dose, that is one molecule or greater.  I am sure that many of us, and perhaps all of us would agree, the answer to this question lies more with a better understanding of the underlying biology, and less with a better understanding of mathematics.

In order to illustrate this potential agreement, let’s start with some examples.

Does water have a threshold of adverse effect?  

Hah!  Trick question, of course it does.  Here is the real question: Can one molecule of water cause an adverse effect?   

All of the biologists are going to answer this question along the following line: Of course not, we exhale a zillion (definition: an indeterminately large number) water molecules each minute.  Adding 1 more to your body is of no biological consequence.   In fact, water is an essential macro-nutrient, although consumption of enough water will do harm, and has caused death on numerous occasions.  Thus, water has a subthreshold dose for adverse effect, the maximum amount which can be, or perhaps has been, estimated.

Next question: Can one molecule of vitamin A cause an adverse effect?   

All of the biologists are going to answer this question along the following line: Of course not, we need zillions of vitamin A molecules to survive (note to my mathematical colleagues---sorry folks, this is just about as quantitative as some of us get).  Adding 1 more to your body is of no biological consequence.  In fact, vitamin A is an essential micro-nutrient, although eating polar bear liver may cause adverse effects in humans, because of its overabundance of vitamin A.  So at some point, vitamin A, like water, is toxic, and like water, vitamin A has a subthreshold dose for adverse effect the upper limit of which has been estimated by the Institute of Medicine as Upper Limits to variously aged humans.

Next question: Can one molecule of lead cause an adverse effect?   

Well, lets scratch our heads on this one.  (Hmm... Just by doing this we just lost about a zillion lead molecules found in the skin cells in our scalp.)  All of the biologists are going to answer this question along the following line: Well, in order to answer this question we need to know the molecular basis of lead’s toxicity, or at least its likely mode of action.  However, if this mechanism or mode does not result in self replicating damage, it is hard to imagine that 1 molecule of lead can cause an adverse effect either since it will likely get excreted or sequestered and the body has repair capabilities.*  

I could go on with other examples.  In fact, you will find some toxicologists able (and some even willing) to make such an argument with any chemical.  In fact, some, and perhaps many of us biologists, would argue that the estimation of subthreshold doses, such as Reference Dose (RfD) is exactly this exercise.  Whether or not one agrees with the last sentence, however, the important points from this email are:
  • all chemicals have thresholds for adverse effect; the question on which we should focus is whether chemicals have subthreshold doses;
  • some chemical’s are hypothesized to have a threshold for adverse effect of only one molecule; these chemicals are likely those where only one molecule can cause self-replicating damage;
  • an understanding of the underlying mechanism or mode of action is helpful in determining whether subthreshold doses exist, or whether a chemical can cause self-replicating damage from one molecule.

This email would not be complete without reference to a lot of good thoughts by others, including, but not limited to, the postings by Kenny Crump, Kevin Brand, Jim Wilson, Clark Carrington, Paul Schlosser, John Frangos, Harlee Strauss, Rory Conolly, Janus Byczkowski, John Lipscomb and Wout Slob, and Wout’s letter to the editor (see email dated 5-6-09), and internal discussions with Andy Maier and Lynne Haber.  How we collectively approach the area of subthreshold dose needs first and foremost a biological underpinning, but also mathematical prowess based on such understanding, a prowess, unfortunately, that most of the biologists (including me) lack.   Paul Price’s recent telecon sponsored by the DSRG on September 1st was a nice foray into this joint area.  I look forward to other efforts as well.

Cheers!

Michael

Toxicology Excellence for Risk Assessment (TERA),
improving the practice of risk assessment through independent and objective guidance and advice. See www.tera.org

P.s.  I apologize if I missed anyone on the email postings.  They made excellent reading.


  • One often hears that lead does not have a threshold for adverse effects, but this is usually followed up by a supporting statement that existing exposures already put sensitive humans in the range of adverse effect.  This supporting sentence is illogical.  One can hypothesize a threshold of 1 molecule for the adverse effects for lead and then all of us are lead intoxicated, or one can hypothesize a threshold of 10,000,000 molecules for the adverse effect for lead and still be in a range of exposures that exceed this threshold and thereby evoke the adverse effect in sensitive humans.  My judgment is that since the critical effect of lead is unlikely to be self-replicating damage, then more than one molecule of lead is needed to evoke its critical effect.  If this is true, then it is reasonable to task expert groups to estimate a subthreshold dose for lead in sensitive populations, which of course is what government groups have done.

#975 From: "Price, Paul (S)" <pprice@...>
Date: Thu Oct 8, 2009 2:11 am
Subject: RE: Threshold for Adverse Effect
psprice.drsg
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Send Email Send Email
 

Mike and the group:

 

I have been thinking about one of the counter arguments to the existence of thresholds. This argument is the idea that in any population where some small fraction displays an adverse effect that any dose of an agent that causes the adverse effect will push a small but finite number of individuals from the category of "unaffected" to the category of "affected". This model is quite attractive for continuous variables (IQ, liver functions, height, lung function, etc.).

 

The conceptual problem with this model is that it relies on the arbitrary nature of crossing a bright line criterion as the only the only definition of what is an effect.  At large doses a large fraction of the population will be moved across the criterion value.  But in addition many will be pushed well past the criterion. This will not occur at low doses.

 

Consider a chemical that reduces the height of children. Assume that a dose A of a chemical that causes loss of height of 6 inches and assume that the criterion for an adverse effect is having a height of less than 4 ft. (My apologies to those who are below 4 ft in height.) This reduction in height will cause X% of the population to move from "unaffected" (height > 4 ft) to "affected" (height < than 4 ft). But it also will cause the affected population (those who would have been above 4 ft but are now less than 4 ft) to have heights that range from just below 4 ft to a height of 3 ft 6 in. Thus some of the affected individuals will be well below the criterion.

 

Now assume that at a lower dose B, the loss of height is 0.06 inches. The fraction that crosses the 4 ft is reduced but is still non zero. If we make the assumption that the distribution of heights in the population between 4 and 4.5 ft is uniform (this is incorrect but let’s ignore this fact) then the response will be X/100%, or a 100 fold change in response.  If X were 10-1 then dose B would be 10-3 or still quite significant.

 

But the difference between the two scenarios is not fully captured but just saying that the response is X% at dose A and X/100% at the dose B.  At B the affected individuals who would have been above 4 ft will have heights ranging from just less than 4 ft to a height of 3 ft 11.94 in. Thus none of the affected individuals will be significantly below the criterion of 4 ft. This clearly is a different effect than the first case. 

 

To put it another way, if my child were ill and I was given the choice of a drug that as a side effect would reduce his/her height by six inches versus one that would reduces it by 0.06 inches, I would not consider the side effects posed by the drugs equivalent. But by only counting the number pushed over the criterion of 4 ft the model ignores this difference.    

 

This suggests that on top of the measure of the fraction of the population pushed across a bright line criterion that their also needs to be some measure of how far they are pushed passed the criterion. So if we were to give a larger weight to the importance of the effects that occur at the first dose and lower weight to the second dose, the difference between the dose A and B would be X*(Weight 1) and X/100*(Weight 2).

 

I would argue that in this case the weight that should be given to the second dose would be zero. Thus even though the number who responded would be non-zero, a threshold would have occurred.

 

I have glossed over a number of additional issues in this analysis (such as multiple stressors that could add up to some significant risk or if the impact on health of the continuous variable were non linear) but the basic point of the argument I think remains valid.

 

 
Paul Price
 

From: DRSG@yahoogroups.com [mailto:DRSG@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Michael Dourson
Sent: Wednesday, October 07, 2009 4:55 PM
To: DRSG@yahoogroups.com; John Doull
Subject: [DRSG] Threshold for Adverse Effect

 

Dear Colleagues

I thoroughly enjoyed our email discussion of "threshold" for adverse effect last spring and wish for us to continue.  However, let's perhaps restart this email stream with some existing definitions of "threshold."   This will allow our deliberations and conclusions to perhaps be more understandable to our colleagues who have not taken as much time to study this issue.  

One of definition of threshold from Wikipedia is:

The point where one mentally or physically is vulnerable in response to provocation or to particular things in general, as in emotions, stress, or pain.

Another one from the dictionary on my word software is:
Level at which effect starts

Casarett & Doull (2008—page 23) define it as:
...some dose below which the probability of an individual responding is zero.

Other definitions as starting points are of course welcome.  Based on these definitions, and probably ones that we could get elsewhere, one immediately recognizes that all chemicals have a threshold for adverse effect, since at least one molecule of a chemical is needed to evoke the adverse effect.  It is not correct to say that some chemicals do not have a threshold for an adverse effect.

The question before many of us, thus, is not whether a chemical has a threshold---since all chemicals do---but rather can it be that this threshold is one molecule of a chemical.  Another way to state the question is whether a chemical can have a subthreshold dose, that is one molecule or greater.  I am sure that many of us, and perhaps all of us would agree, the answer to this question lies more with a better understanding of the underlying biology, and less with a better understanding of mathematics.

In order to illustrate this potential agreement, let’s start with some examples.

Does water have a threshold of adverse effect?  

Hah!  Trick question, of course it does.  Here is the real question: Can one molecule of water cause an adverse effect?   

All of the biologists are going to answer this question along the following line: Of course not, we exhale a zillion (definition: an indeterminately large number) water molecules each minute.  Adding 1 more to your body is of no biological consequence.   In fact, water is an essential macro-nutrient, although consumption of enough water will do harm, and has caused death on numerous occasions.  Thus, water has a subthreshold dose for adverse effect, the maximum amount which can be, or perhaps has been, estimated.

Next question: Can one molecule of vitamin A cause an adverse effect?   

All of the biologists are going to answer this question along the following line: Of course not, we need zillions of vitamin A molecules to survive (note to my mathematical colleagues---sorry folks, this is just about as quantitative as some of us get).  Adding 1 more to your body is of no biological consequence.  In fact, vitamin A is an essential micro-nutrient, although eating polar bear liver may cause adverse effects in humans, because of its overabundance of vitamin A.  So at some point, vitamin A, like water, is toxic, and like water, vitamin A has a subthreshold dose for adverse effect the upper limit of which has been estimated by the Institute of Medicine as Upper Limits to variously aged humans.

Next question: Can one molecule of lead cause an adverse effect?   

Well, lets scratch our heads on this one.  (Hmm... Just by doing this we just lost about a zillion lead molecules found in the skin cells in our scalp.)  All of the biologists are going to answer this question along the following line: Well, in order to answer this question we need to know the molecular basis of lead’s toxicity, or at least its likely mode of action.  However, if this mechanism or mode does not result in self replicating damage, it is hard to imagine that 1 molecule of lead can cause an adverse effect either since it will likely get excreted or sequestered and the body has repair capabilities.*  

I could go on with other examples.  In fact, you will find some toxicologists able (and some even willing) to make such an argument with any chemical.  In fact, some, and perhaps many of us biologists, would argue that the estimation of subthreshold doses, such as Reference Dose (RfD) is exactly this exercise.  Whether or not one agrees with the last sentence, however, the important points from this email are:
  • all chemicals have thresholds for adverse effect; the question on which we should focus is whether chemicals have subthreshold doses;
  • some chemical’s are hypothesized to have a threshold for adverse effect of only one molecule; these chemicals are likely those where only one molecule can cause self-replicating damage;
  • an understanding of the underlying mechanism or mode of action is helpful in determining whether subthreshold doses exist, or whether a chemical can cause self-replicating damage from one molecule.

This email would not be complete without reference to a lot of good thoughts by others, including, but not limited to, the postings by Kenny Crump, Kevin Brand, Jim Wilson, Clark Carrington, Paul Schlosser, John Frangos, Harlee Strauss, Rory Conolly, Janus Byczkowski, John Lipscomb and Wout Slob, and Wout’s letter to the editor (see email dated 5-6-09), and internal discussions with Andy Maier and Lynne Haber.  How we collectively approach the area of subthreshold dose needs first and foremost a biological underpinning, but also mathematical prowess based on such understanding, a prowess, unfortunately, that most of the biologists (including me) lack.   Paul Price’s recent telecon sponsored by the DSRG on September 1st was a nice foray into this joint area.  I look forward to other efforts as well.

Cheers!

Michael

Toxicology Excellence for Risk Assessment (TERA),
improving the practice of risk assessment through independent and objective guidance and advice. See www.tera.org

P.s.  I apologize if I missed anyone on the email postings.  They made excellent reading.


  • One often hears that lead does not have a threshold for adverse effects, but this is usually followed up by a supporting statement that existing exposures already put sensitive humans in the range of adverse effect.  This supporting sentence is illogical.  One can hypothesize a threshold of 1 molecule for the adverse effects for lead and then all of us are lead intoxicated, or one can hypothesize a threshold of 10,000,000 molecules for the adverse effect for lead and still be in a range of exposures that exceed this threshold and thereby evoke the adverse effect in sensitive humans.  My judgment is that since the critical effect of lead is unlikely to be self-replicating damage, then more than one molecule of lead is needed to evoke its critical effect.  If this is true, then it is reasonable to task expert groups to estimate a subthreshold dose for lead in sensitive populations, which of course is what government groups have done.


#976 From: Schlosser.Paul@...
Date: Thu Oct 8, 2009 3:11 pm
Subject: Re: Threshold for Adverse Effect
Paul_Odyseus
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
When the point came up during the teleseminar on Tuesday, it was
reference to specific, in vitro dose-response data, one figure of which
is copied below.  That there is an *apparent* threshold in these data is
in high probability an artifact of the use of a log scale on the x axis:
that was Dale Hattis' point.  When examining the biochemical mechanisms
in well-defined, fairly uniform cell culture system, the arguments about
population variability are really irrelevant.

** There are known cellular/biochemical processes which are at least
highly non-linear: a Hill model with a coefficient of 2 or greater is
the best representation of the data.  In those cases (if the coefficient
is a good bit greater than 2) referring to the response in that defined
system as having a "threshold" strikes me as appropriate.

The problem is, you cannot distinguish a process with a hill coefficient
equal to 1 from one in which it is, say 4, by visual examination of data
plotted with a log-x-axis.

The discussion of what happens in the variable human population is also
important, and I can believe that a "threshold" observed in a cellular
system does not necessarily mean there's effectively zero risk below a
finite exposure level in that population.  That's a critical
consideration when one is translating mechanistic data and models to
population-based risk assessment.  But let's please not mix up that
population-risk-assessment activity with attempts to understand and
incorporate mechanistic data, where you really have to start by
understanding the individual.

When we are talking about methods for elucidating and incorporating
cellular and biochemical mechanisms into our analysis of dose-response,
being accurate in our discussion of the characteristics of the mechanism
is important.  And looking at a plot like this and saying that it shows
a "threshold" because of the *apparent* non-linearity represents a
simple failure to recognize what happens when you plot linear functions
on semi-log plots.  It is inaccurate.

-Paul


(Embedded image moved to file: pic21543.jpg)

1 of 1 Photo(s)

#977 From: "Price, Paul (S)" <pprice@...>
Date: Fri Oct 9, 2009 1:35 pm
Subject: RE: Threshold for Adverse Effect
psprice.drsg
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Kenny:
 
Your comment is right on the mark in terms of the gulf of understanding between biostatisticians and toxicologists on thresholds.
 
Borrowing from Dr. Seuss the biostatistician cries "An effect is an effect no matter how small" . The toxicologist stealing a line from the lawyers thunders back "The body does not concern itself with trifles". 
 
The point, I think, is that the word threshold can be defined in terms of many different frameworks reflecting different levels of organization.  A dose-related biological change that can be measured in the lab and extrapolated to low doses in a way that has a biological underpinning, can form the basis of an argument for or against a threshold at low doses. 
 
But so can arguments in terms of a higher levels of organization.  
 
In this case, on the level of the organism the a change in height of either 6 or 0.06 inches is a real biological effect. On the level of the person as a functioning human being, (surviving birth, finding a job, reproducing, etc.) a 6 inch change is an effect a 0.06 inch change in height is not an effect.   
 
Again, I am setting aside other arguments about why such an effect of 0.06 inches might cause a concern (a non-meaningful change in height may indicate other more meaningful effects, cumulative impact of multiple effects, etc.).
 
What has happened in the past is the fixation on the presence or absence of a threshold at one level and ignored questions of the relevance to higher levels.   
 
The challenge in the discussion is to develop transparent approaches to evaluate the impact of changes on multiple levels of organization. Ultimately the goal of government/regulators/risk managers is to improve the lives of humans so risk assessment and dose response ultimately needs to be tied to these very high levels of organization. 
 
Best wishes
Paul Price

From: Kenny Crump [mailto:KennyCrump@...]
Sent: Thursday, October 08, 2009 9:16 AM
To: Price, Paul (S); 'Michael Dourson'; DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [DRSG] Threshold for Adverse Effect

Paul,

 

That is a very nice example.  But not of a threshold.  If we are going to define doses that cause small but positive consequences thresholds then “threshold” becomes a vacuous concept.

 

Regards,

 

Kenny

 

  

 

 

Kenny S. Crump

Louisiana Tech

P.O. Box 10348

Ruston, LA 71272-0046

Direct Dial: 318-257-4051

Cell: 318-278-9426

FAX: 318-257-2182

KennyCrump@...

Web Page:  http://www2.latech.edu/~kcrump/

 

Home:

Kenny and Shirley Crump

2220 S. Vienna

Ruston, LA 71270

318-255-7058

 

From: DRSG@yahoogroups.com [mailto:DRSG@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Price, Paul (S)
Sent: Wednesday, October 07, 2009 9:11 PM
To: Michael Dourson; DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [DRSG] Threshold for Adverse Effect

 

 

Mike and the group:

 

I have been thinking about one of the counter arguments to the existence of thresholds. This argument is the idea that in any population where some small fraction displays an adverse effect that any dose of an agent that causes the adverse effect will push a small but finite number of individuals from the category of "unaffected" to the category of "affected". This model is quite attractive for continuous variables (IQ, liver functions, height, lung function, etc.).

 

The conceptual problem with this model is that it relies on the arbitrary nature of crossing a bright line criterion as the only the only definition of what is an effect.  At large doses a large fraction of the population will be moved across the criterion value.  But in addition many will be pushed well past the criterion. This will not occur at low doses.

 

Consider a chemical that reduces the height of children. Assume that a dose A of a chemical that causes loss of height of 6 inches and assume that the criterion for an adverse effect is having a height of less than 4 ft. (My apologies to those who are below 4 ft in height.) This reduction in height will cause X% of the population to move from "unaffected" (height > 4 ft) to "affected" (height < than 4 ft). But it also will cause the affected population (those who would have been above 4 ft but are now less than 4 ft) to have heights that range from just below 4 ft to a height of 3 ft 6 in. Thus some of the affected individuals will be well below the criterion.

 

Now assume that at a lower dose B, the loss of height is 0.06 inches. The fraction that crosses the 4 ft is reduced but is still non zero. If we make the assumption that the distribution of heights in the population between 4 and 4.5 ft is uniform (this is incorrect but let’s ignore this fact) then the response will be X/100%, or a 100 fold change in response.  If X were 10-1 then dose B would be 10-3 or still quite significant.

 

But the difference between the two scenarios is not fully captured but just saying that the response is X% at dose A and X/100% at the dose B.  At B the affected individuals who would have been above 4 ft will have heights ranging from just less than 4 ft to a height of 3 ft 11.94 in. Thus none of the affected individuals will be significantly below the criterion of 4 ft. This clearly is a different effect than the first case. 

 

To put it another way, if my child were ill and I was given the choice of a drug that as a side effect would reduce his/her height by six inches versus one that would reduces it by 0.06 inches, I would not consider the side effects posed by the drugs equivalent. But by only counting the number pushed over the criterion of 4 ft the model ignores this difference.    

 

This suggests that on top of the measure of the fraction of the population pushed across a bright line criterion that their also needs to be some measure of how far they are pushed passed the criterion. So if we were to give a larger weight to the importance of the effects that occur at the first dose and lower weight to the second dose, the difference between the dose A and B would be X*(Weight 1) and X/100*(Weight 2).

 

I would argue that in this case the weight that should be given to the second dose would be zero. Thus even though the number who responded would be non-zero, a threshold would have occurred.

 

I have glossed over a number of additional issues in this analysis (such as multiple stressors that could add up to some significant risk or if the impact on health of the continuous variable were non linear) but the basic point of the argument I think remains valid.

 

 

Paul Price

 


#978 From: Michael Dourson <dourson@...>
Date: Fri Oct 9, 2009 2:06 pm
Subject: Re: Threshold for Adverse Effect
dourson@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Gentlemen

...and this is why the subject line of this series reads “threshold for adverse effect” and also why the risk assessment scientists with backgrounds in toxicology use the No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL), that is

An exposure level at which there are no statistically or biologically significant increases in the frequency or severity of adverse effect between the exposed population and its appropriate control; some effects may be produced at this level, but they are not considered adverse, nor precursors to adverse effects (EPA’s IRIS archived glossary),

rather than the No Observed Effect Level (NOEL) as the preferred point of departure for determining Reference Dose (RfD) or Reference Concentration (RfC) for noncancer health endpoints.  The definition of RfD or RfC can be viewed as a NOAEL for a sensitive subgroup, but this implies that some non-adverse effects might be occurring.

Cheers!

Michael

Toxicology Excellence for Risk Assessment (TERA),
Sponsoring the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE).  See www.allianceforrisk.org


From: "Price, Paul (S)" <PPrice@...>
Date: Fri, 9 Oct 2009 09:35:34 -0400
To: <KennyCrump@...>, Michael Dourson <dourson@...>, <DRSG@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: RE: [DRSG] Threshold for Adverse Effect

Kenny:

Your comment is right on the mark in terms of the gulf of understanding between biostatisticians and toxicologists on thresholds.

Borrowing from Dr. Seuss the biostatistician cries "An effect is an effect no matter how small" . The toxicologist stealing a line from the lawyers thunders back "The body does not concern itself with trifles".

The point, I think, is that the word threshold can be defined in terms of many different frameworks reflecting different levels of organization.  A dose-related biological change that can be measured in the lab and extrapolated to low doses in a way that has a biological underpinning, can form the basis of an argument for or against a threshold at low doses.

But so can arguments in terms of a higher levels of organization.  

In this case, on the level of the organism the a change in height of either 6 or 0.06 inches is a real biological effect. On the level of the person as a functioning human being, (surviving birth, finding a job, reproducing, etc.) a 6 inch change is an effect a 0.06 inch change in height is not an effect.   

Again, I am setting aside other arguments about why such an effect of 0.06 inches might cause a concern (a non-meaningful change in height may indicate other more meaningful effects, cumulative impact of multiple effects, etc.).

What has happened in the past is the fixation on the presence or absence of a threshold at one level and ignored questions of the relevance to higher levels.   

The challenge in the discussion is to develop transparent approaches to evaluate the impact of changes on multiple levels of organization. Ultimately the goal of government/regulators/risk managers is to improve the lives of humans so risk assessment and dose response ultimately needs to be tied to these very high levels of organization.
 
Best wishes
Paul Price

 

From: Kenny Crump  [mailto:KennyCrump@...]
Sent: Thursday, October 08, 2009 9:16  AM
To: Price, Paul (S); 'Michael Dourson';  DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [DRSG] Threshold for Adverse  Effect

 
 
 

Paul,



That  is a very nice example.  But not of a threshold.  If we are going to  define doses that cause small but positive consequences thresholds then  “threshold” becomes a vacuous concept.



Regards,



Kenny



   





 

Kenny S.  Crump

Louisiana  Tech

P.O. Box  10348

Ruston, LA  71272-0046

Direct Dial:  318-257-4051

Cell:  318-278-9426

FAX:  318-257-2182

KennyCrump@... <mailto:KennyCrump@...>

Web  Page:  http://www2.latech.edu/~kcrump/



Home:  

Kenny and  Shirley Crump

2220 S.  Vienna

Ruston, LA  71270

318-255-7058



 
 

From:  DRSG@yahoogroups.com [mailto:DRSG@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Price,  Paul (S)
Sent: Wednesday, October 07, 2009 9:11 PM
To:  Michael Dourson; DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [DRSG] Threshold  for Adverse Effect
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 

Mike  and the group:



I have  been thinking about one of the counter arguments to the existence of  thresholds. This argument is the idea that in any population where some small  fraction displays an adverse effect that any dose of an agent that causes the  adverse effect will push a small but finite number of individuals from the  category of "unaffected" to the category of "affected". This model is quite  attractive for continuous variables (IQ, liver functions, height, lung  function, etc.).

 
 
The  conceptual problem with this model is that it relies on the arbitrary nature  of crossing a bright line criterion as the only the only definition  of what is an effect.  At large doses a large fraction of the  population will be moved across the criterion value.  But in  addition many will be pushed well past the criterion. This will not occur at  low doses.

 
 
Consider  a chemical that reduces the height of children. Assume that a dose A  of a chemical that causes loss of height of 6 inches and assume  that the criterion for an adverse effect is having a height of less than 4  ft. (My apologies to those who are below 4 ft in height.) This reduction  in height will cause X% of the population to move from "unaffected"  (height > 4 ft) to "affected" (height < than 4 ft). But  it also will cause the affected population (those who would have been  above 4 ft but are now less than 4 ft) to have heights that range  from just below 4 ft to a height of 3 ft 6 in. Thus some of the affected  individuals will be well below the criterion.

 
 
Now  assume that at a lower dose B, the loss of height is 0.06 inches. The fraction  that crosses the 4 ft is reduced but is still non zero. If we make the  assumption that the distribution of heights in the population between 4 and  4.5 ft is uniform (this is incorrect but let’s ignore this fact) then the  response will be X/100%, or a 100 fold change in response.  If X  were 10-1 then dose B would be 10-3 or still quite  significant.

 
 
But  the difference between the two scenarios is not fully captured but just saying  that the response is X% at dose A and X/100% at the dose B.   At B the affected individuals who would have been above 4 ft  will have heights ranging from just less than 4 ft to a height of 3 ft  11.94 in. Thus none of the affected individuals will be significantly below  the criterion of 4 ft. This clearly is a different effect than the  first case.

 
 
To put  it another way, if my child were ill and I was given the choice of a  drug that as a side effect would reduce his/her height by six inches  versus one that would reduces it by 0.06 inches, I would not consider the  side effects posed by the drugs equivalent. But by only counting the  number pushed over the criterion of 4 ft the model ignores this  difference.    

 
 
This  suggests that on top of the measure of the fraction of the population pushed  across a bright line criterion that their also needs to be some measure  of how far they are pushed passed the criterion. So if we were to  give a larger weight to the importance of the effects that occur at  the first dose and lower weight to the second dose, the difference  between the dose A and B would be X*(Weight 1) and X/100*(Weight 2).  

 
 
I  would argue that in this case the weight that should be given to the  second dose would be zero. Thus even though the number who responded  would be non-zero, a threshold would have occurred.

 
 
I have  glossed over a number of additional issues in this analysis (such as  multiple stressors that could add up to some significant risk or if the impact  on health of the continuous variable were non linear) but the basic point  of the argument I think remains valid.



 
 
Paul  Price

 


#979 From: januszb@...
Date: Fri Oct 9, 2009 3:22 pm
Subject: Re: Threshold for Adverse Effect
januszb@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Does glucose have or have not a threshold?
 
No matter whether we look at the cellular level or the whole organism, 1 molecule of glucose when metabolised will produce as many as 6 molecules of carbon dioxide (CO2) – that’s an effect!
So, now, the real question is - if this is an ADVERSE effect.
 
If, as risk assessors, we assume that the extra 6 molecules of CO2 will contribute to the greenhouse effect and by exacerbating global warming, will cause flooding, which in turn, will cause the organism (receptor) to drown – then, yes, that IS adverse.
div class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"> 
So, as regulators, we should regulate glucose as a hazardous, non-threshold chemical, detrimental not only to human health but also to the whole ecosystem.  For glucose, there is no dose below the threshold, no NOAEL, so the dose-response starts at zero – or does it?
Oh, give me a break!
 
Best wishes for Columbus Day.
Janusz Z. Byczkowski



-----Original Message-----
From: Price, Paul (S) <pprice@...>
To: KennyCrump@...; Michael Dourson <dourson@...>; DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Sent:20Fri, Oct 9, 2009 9:35 am
Subject: RE: [DRSG] Threshold for Adverse Effect

 
Kenny:
 
Your comment is right on the mark in terms of the gulf of understanding between biostatisticians and toxicologists on thresholds.
 
Borrowing from Dr. Seuss the biostatistician cries "An effect is an effect no matter how small" . The toxicologist stealing a line from the lawyers thunders back "The body does not concern itself with trifles". 
 
The point, I think, is that the word threshold can be defined in terms of many different frameworks reflecting different levels of organization.  A dose-related biological change that can be measured in the lab and extrapolated to low doses in a way that has a biological underpinning, can form the basis of an argument for or against a threshold at low doses. 
 
But so can arguments in terms of a higher levels of organization.  
 
In this case, on the level of the organism the a change in height of either 6 or 0.06 inches is a real biological effect. On the level of the person as a functioning human being, (surviving birth, finding a job, reproducing, etc.) a 6 inch change is an effect a 0.06 inch change in height is not an effect.   
 
Again, I am setting aside o ther arguments about why such an effect of 0.06 inches might cause a concern (a non-meaningful change in height may indicate other more meaningful effects, cumulative impact of multiple effects, etc.).
 
What has happened in the past is the fixation on the presence or absence of a threshold at one level and ignored questions of the relevance to higher levels.   
 
The challenge in the discussion is to develop transparent approaches to evaluate the impact of changes on multiple levels of organization. Ultimately the goal of government/regulators/risk managers is to improve the lives of humans so risk assessment and dose response ultimately needs to be tied to these very high levels of organization. 
 
Best wishes
Paul Price

From: Kenny Crump [mailto:KennyCrump@email.com]
Sent: Thursday, October 08, 2009 9:16 AM
To: Price, Paul (S); 'Michael Dourson'; DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [DRSG] Threshold for Adverse Effect

Paul,
 
That is a very nice example.  But not of a threshold.  If we are going to define doses that cause small but positive consequences thresholds then “threshold” becomes a vacuous concept.
 
Regards,
 
Kenny
 
  
 
 
Kenny S. Crump
Louisiana Tech
P.O. Box 10348
Ruston, LA 71272-0046
Direct Dial: 318-257-4051
Cell: 318-278-9426
FAX: 318-257-2182
Web Page:  http://www2.latech.edu/~kcrump/
 
Home:
Kenny and Shirley Cru mp
2220 S. Vienna
Ruston, LA 71270
318-255-7058
 
From: DRSG@yahoogroups.com [mailto:DRSG@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Price, Paul (S)
Sent: Wednesday, October 07, 2009 9:11 PM
To: Michael Dourson; DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [DRSG] Threshold for Adverse Effect
 
 
Mike and the group:
 
I have been thinking about one of the counter arguments to the existence of thresholds. This argument is the idea that in any population where some small fraction display s an adverse effect that any dose of an agent that causes the adverse effect will push a small but finite number of individuals from the category of "unaffected" to the category of "affected". This model is quite attractive for continuous variables (IQ, liver functions, height, lung function, etc.).
 
The conceptual problem with this model is that it relies on the arbitrary nature of crossing a bright line criterion as the only the only definition of what is an effect.  At large doses a large fraction of the population will be moved across the criterion value.  But in addition many will be pushed well past the criterion. This will not occur at low doses.
 
Consider a chemical that reduces the height of children. Assume that a dose A of a chemical that causes loss of height of 6 inches and assume that the criterion for an adverse effect is having a height of less than 4 ft. (My apologies to those who are below 4 ft in height.) This reduction in height will cause X% of the population to move from "unaffected" (height > 4 ft) to "affected" (height < than 4 ft ). But it also will cause the affected population (those who would have been above 4 ft but are now less than 4 ft) to have heights that range from just below 4 ft to a height of 3 ft 6 in. Thus some of the affected individuals will be well below the criterion.
 
Now assume that at a lower dose B, the loss of height is 0.06 inches. The fraction that crosses the 4 ft is reduced but is still non zero. If we make the assumption that the distribution of heights in the population between 4 and 4.5 ft is uniform (this is incorrect but let’s ignore this fact) then the response will be X/100%, or a 100 fold change in response.  If X were 10-1 then dose B would be 10-3 or still quite significant.
 
But the difference between the two scenarios is not fully captured but just saying that the response is X% at dose A and X/100% at the dose B.  At B the affected individuals who would have been above 4 ft will have heights ranging from just less than 4 ft to a height of 3 ft 11.94 in. Thus none of the affected individuals wi ll be significantly below the criterion of 4 ft. This clearly is a different effect than the first case. 
 
To put it another way, if my child were ill and I was given the choice of a drug that as a side effect would reduce his/her height by six inches versus one that would reduces it by 0.06 inches, I would not consider the side effects posed by the drugs equivalent. But by only counting the number pushed over the criterion of 4 ft the model ignores this difference.    
 
This suggests that on top of the measure of the fraction of the population pushed across a bright line criterion that their also needs to be some measure of how far they are pushed passed the criterion. So if we were to give a larger weight to the importance of the effects that occur at the first dose and lower weight to the second dose, the difference between the dose A and B would be X*(Weight 1) and X/100*(Weight 2).
 
I would argue that in this case the weight that should be given to the second dose would be zero. Thus even though the number who responded would be non-zero, a threshold would have occurred.
 
I have glossed over a number of additional issues in this analysis (such as multiple stressors that could add up to some significant risk or if the impact on health of the continuous variable were non linear) but the basic point of the argument I think remains valid.
 
 
Paul Price
 

#980 From: Michael Dourson <dourson@...>
Date: Fri Oct 9, 2009 3:40 pm
Subject: FW: Threshold for Adverse Effect
dourson@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Dear Colleagues,

From Clark Carrington of U.S. FDA:

Two of the main semantic issues associated with the term "threshold" have already been elucidated:

1. individual effects vs. population effects
2. a specific effect vs. any effect

But, the very large gorilla in the room is this: Defining what constitutes an adverse effect is NOT a technical exercise. If it is, it shouldn't be - biological or regulatory significance isn't the same as statistical significance.  (In fact, significance isn't a statistical concept at all).  It seems to me that the semantic issues often end up being a politically-reinforced smoke screen that hides the decision:

3. a statement of fact vs. a regulatory limit


#981 From: DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tue Oct 27, 2009 4:56 pm
Subject: DRSG Teleconference, 11/3/2009, 12:00 pm
DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Send Email Send Email
 
Reminder from:   DRSG Yahoo! Group
 
Title:   DRSG Teleconference
 
Date:   Tuesday November 3, 2009
Time:   12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Repeats:   This event repeats every month on the first Tuesday.
Next reminder:   The next reminder for this event will be sent in 6 days, 3 minutes.
Notes:   Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on the first Tuesday of the month. We have 25 lines available for the call.

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#982 From: "Feder, Paul I" <feder@...>
Date: Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:31 pm
Subject: SRA DRSG Agenda for meeting Tuesday, November 3, 2009
feder@...
Send Email Send Email
 

DRSG Teleconference

Tuesday November 3, 2009

12:00 pm – 1:00pm.

 

Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on the first Tuesday of the month. We have 25 lines available for the call.

 

CALL IN NUMBER: 513-569-7897
CONFEREE CODE: 7217 plus the # sign.
For problem resolution during the call, contact the Help Desk at 513-569-7754.

 

 

Agenda:

1.     Minutes from October meeting – teleseminar

 

2.     Status of Treasury

As of the end of July the DRSG treasury balance was $5,893.02. 

Our anticipated expenditures with respect to the annual meeting are:

Student Awards             $1,260.00

Peg’s symposium             $1,350.00  (six one day registrations @ $225 per registration)

Mixer                                    $2,000.00

Total                                      $4,610.00

 

Balance  $1,283.02

3.     SRA annual Meeting December 6 – 9, 2009

a.     Status of DRSG Symposia – Jeff, Michael

b.    Status of Student awards – Patty

c.     Mixer – Joint with Exposure Assessment Specialty Group

 

4.     Elections

a.     Positions to fill

Chair Elect (2 years)

Vice Chair  (2 years) (student awards)

At large – (2 years) (Nagu Keshava is finishing up the balance of Jeff gift’s term)

b.    Continuing Positions

Chair – Jeff Gift

Secretary/Treasurer – Julie Fitzpatrick

At large – 2nd year – Kenny Crump

Past-Chair – Paul Feder

 

I would appreciate receiving nominations for the chair-elect vice chair, and at large positions.  Please do not be bashful about nominating yourself if you are interested in a position.

 

Thank you.

 

Paul Feder

Chair, DRSG


#983 From: gift.jeff@...
Date: Mon Nov 2, 2009 4:42 pm
Subject: BMDS-News Announcement #10 - December 5, 2009 SRA Workshop for BMDS 2.1.1 - Preregister by November 6 and Save
jsgift
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Hello BMDS User:

You are receiving this BMDS News announcement because you are a
registered user of the EPA benchmark dose software (BMDS).  As a member
of the BMDS-News list you will periodically receive news and information
related to BMDS.

BMDS-News Announcement #10:    EPA will be conducting the following full
day BMDS workshop on December 5 in conjunction with the December 6-9,
2009 Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) conference.  The cost is $250 for
those who preregister by Friday, November 6, 2009 ($300 thereafter).  To
learn more about the SRA conference go to
http://www.sra.org/events_2009_meeting.php.  To register online for the
BMDS workshop go to
https://ssl4.westserver.net/birenheide.com/secure/sra/

   Introduction to the Benchmark Dose Methodology and Interactive
   Application of EPA’s Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS), Version 2.1.1


   SRA 2009 Annual Meeting (Baltimore MD, Dec 5, 2009)


   This daylong course is designed to provide participants with an
   interactive training workshop on the use of the U.S. EPA’s Benchmark
   Dose Software, BMDS 2.1.1 and its application to risk assessment. The
   course will provide instruction in changes that have been implemented
   in version 2.1.1, including a new user interface that allows multiple
   run processing, the ability to save model option choices, summary
   sheets for side-by-side comparison of model results, and enhanced
   export to spreadsheet functionality. The course will provide an
   overview of the BMD process, including determination of data adequacy,
   model fitting, model comparison, selection of a benchmark response
   level, and modeling linear verses nonlinear responses. Attendees will
   also work on examples from chemical assessments and learn how to take
   advantage of the new features offered by version 2.1.1 of BMDS to
   prepare summary reports for insertion in their assessments. This
   workshop will cover all the BMD models available in the current
   version of BMDS—including the recently added dichotomous hill,
   background dose, and continuous exponential models. This course is an
   interactive training workshop in the features of BMDS 2.1.1 and it is
   therefore recommended that prior to this training students who are not
   familiar with BMD modeling take the online BMD training course (
   http://www.epa.gov/ncea/bmds/training/index.html) in order to ensure
   that they receive the maximum benefit from participating in the
   workshop. Participants need to bring their own laptops to the workshop
   with the latest version of BMDS 2.1.1 installed (with necessary
   administrative rights). BMDS 2.1.1 should be available for download
   from http://epa.gov/ncea/bmds/ by Friday, November 6, 2009.

--------------------------------------------------------------
J. Allen Davis, MSPH
Biologist
National Center for Environmental Assessment
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
109 T.W. Alexander Dr, MC B243-01
RTP, NC 27711
phone: 919-541-3789
fax: 919-541-0245
email: davis.allen@...


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#984 From: DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Date: Mon Nov 2, 2009 4:56 pm
Subject: DRSG Teleconference, 11/3/2009, 12:00 pm
DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Send Email Send Email
 
Reminder from:   DRSG Yahoo! Group
 
Title:   DRSG Teleconference
 
Date:   Tuesday November 3, 2009
Time:   12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Repeats:   This event repeats every month on the first Tuesday.
Notes:   Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on the first Tuesday of the month. We have 25 lines available for the call.

CALL IN NUMBER: 513-569-7897
CONFEREE CODE: 7217 plus the # sign.
For problem resolution during the call, contact the Help Desk at 513-569-7754.
 
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#985 From: TEUSCHLER.LINDA@...
Date: Mon Nov 2, 2009 7:09 pm
Subject: Re: DRSG Teleconference, 11/3/2009, 12:00 pm
TEUSCHLER.LINDA@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Hi DRSG,
We are putting on 2 cumulative risk assessment workshops at SRA this
year on Sunday 12/6/09.  Please feel free to sign up and/or pass this
along to others who many be interested!  Information attached.
Thanks,
LT
(See attached file: SRA 09 Cume RA Part 1 Handbook for web.pdf)(See
attached file: SRA 09 Cume RA Part 2 Handbook for web.pdf)
Linda K. Teuschler
U.S. EPA/NCEA-Cin
26 W. ML King Dr. (MSA-110)
Cincinnati, OH 45268
513-569-7573
fax: 513-487-2539
teuschler.linda@...


|------------>
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|------------>
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-------------------------------------------------------|
   |DRSG@yahoogroups.com
|
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-------------------------------------------------------|
|------------>
| Date:      |
|------------>
  
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-------------------------------------------------------|
   |11/02/2009 11:57 AM
|
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
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|------------>
| Subject:   |
|------------>
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
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   |[DRSG] DRSG Teleconference, 11/3/2009, 12:00 pm
|
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-------------------------------------------------------|







               (Embedded image moved to file: pic19978.gif)
               (Embedded image moved to file: pic10748.gif)

  Reminder      DRSG Yahoo! Group
  from:



  Title:        DRSG Teleconference



  Date:         Tuesday November 3, 2009

  Time:         12:00 pm - 1:00 pm

  Repeats:      This event repeats every month on the first Tuesday.

  Notes:        Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on the first
Tuesday of the month. We have
                25 lines available for the call.

                CALL IN NUMBER: 513-569-7897
                CONFEREE CODE: 7217 plus the # sign.
                For problem resolution during the call, contact the Help Desk at
513-569-7754.



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3 of 3 Photo(s)

#986 From: "Julie Fitzpatrick" <juliefitzpatrick@...>
Date: Mon Nov 2, 2009 8:28 pm
Subject: Re: DRSG Teleconference, 11/3/2009, 12:00 pm
juliewkeller
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Please see the attached draft minutes from the 10/5/09 meeting.
 
Regards,
Julie Fitzpatrick
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, November 02, 2009 11:56 AM
Subject: [DRSG] DRSG Teleconference, 11/3/2009, 12:00 pm

Reminder from:   DRSG Yahoo! Group
 
Title:   DRSG Teleconference
 
Date:   Tuesday November 3, 2009
Time:   12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Repeats:   This event repeats every month on the first Tuesday.
Notes:   Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on the first Tuesday of the month. We have 25 lines available for the call.

CALL IN NUMBER: 513-569-7897
CONFEREE CODE: 7217 plus the # sign.
For problem resolution during the call, contact the Help Desk at 513-569-7754.
 
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1 of 1 File(s)


#987 From: gift.jeff@...
Date: Mon Nov 2, 2009 8:45 pm
Subject: Correction: BMDS-News Announcement #10 - December 6, 2009 SRA Workshop for BMDS 2.1.1 - Preregister by November 6 and Save
jsgift
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
The BMDS course at SRA will be offered on Sunday, December 6, not
December 5.

Jeff Gift, Ph.D.
National Center for Environmental Assessment
EPA (B243-01)
RTP, NC 27711
919-541-4828
919-541-0245 (fax)
gift.jeff@...

|------------>
| From:      |
|------------>
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-----------------------------------------------------------|
   |Jeff Gift/RTP/USEPA/US@EPA
|
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-----------------------------------------------------------|
|------------>
| To:        |
|------------>
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-----------------------------------------------------------|
   |"BMDS-news" <bmds-news@...>
|
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-----------------------------------------------------------|
|------------>
| Date:      |
|------------>
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-----------------------------------------------------------|
   |11/02/2009 12:04 PM
|
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-----------------------------------------------------------|
|------------>
| Subject:   |
|------------>
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-----------------------------------------------------------|
   |BMDS-News Announcement #10 - December 5, 2009 SRA Workshop for BMDS 2.1.1 -
Preregister by November 6 and Save                            |
  
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-----------------------------------------------------------|






Hello BMDS User:

You are receiving this BMDS News announcement because you are a
registered user of the EPA benchmark dose software (BMDS).  As a member
of the BMDS-News list you will periodically receive news and information
related to BMDS.

BMDS-News Announcement #10:    EPA will be conducting the following full
day BMDS workshop on December 5 in conjunction with the December 6-9,
2009 Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) conference.  The cost is $250 for
those who preregister by Friday, November 6, 2009 ($300 thereafter).  To
learn more about the SRA conference go to
http://www.sra.org/events_2009_meeting.php.  To register online for the
BMDS workshop go to
https://ssl4.westserver.net/birenheide.com/secure/sra/

   Introduction to the Benchmark Dose Methodology and Interactive
   Application of EPA’s Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS), Version 2.1.1


   SRA 2009 Annual Meeting (Baltimore MD, Dec 5, 2009)


   This daylong course is designed to provide participants with an
   interactive training workshop on the use of the U.S. EPA’s Benchmark
   Dose Software, BMDS 2.1.1 and its application to risk assessment. The
   course will provide instruction in changes that have been implemented
   in version 2.1.1, including a new user interface that allows multiple
   run processing, the ability to save model option choices, summary
   sheets for side-by-side comparison of model results, and enhanced
   export to spreadsheet functionality. The course will provide an
   overview of the BMD process, including determination of data adequacy,
   model fitting, model comparison, selection of a benchmark response
   level, and modeling linear verses nonlinear responses. Attendees will
   also work on examples from chemical assessments and learn how to take
   advantage of the new features offered by version 2.1.1 of BMDS to
   prepare summary reports for insertion in their assessments. This
   workshop will cover all the BMD models available in the current
   version of BMDS—including the recently added dichotomous hill,
   background dose, and continuous exponential models. This course is an
   interactive training workshop in the features of BMDS 2.1.1 and it is
   therefore recommended that prior to this training students who are not
   familiar with BMD modeling take the online BMD training course (
   http://www.epa.gov/ncea/bmds/training/index.html) in order to ensure
   that they receive the maximum benefit from participating in the
   workshop. Participants need to bring their own laptops to the workshop
   with the latest version of BMDS 2.1.1 installed (with necessary
   administrative rights). BMDS 2.1.1 should be available for download
   from http://epa.gov/ncea/bmds/ by Friday, November 6, 2009.

--------------------------------------------------------------
J. Allen Davis, MSPH
Biologist
National Center for Environmental Assessment
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
109 T.W. Alexander Dr, MC B243-01
RTP, NC 27711
phone: 919-541-3789
fax: 919-541-0245
email: davis.allen@...


Here are some useful addresses for managing your subscription:

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You can visit this address to change your subscription email address,
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your settings at any time.
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To unsubscribe send a blank email to
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#988 From: gift.jeff@...
Date: Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:32 pm
Subject: BMDS-News Announcement #11 - release of BMDS 2.1.1 with new Export to Excel feature, sample sessions and ten Berge model update!
jsgift
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Hello BMDS User:

You are receiving this BMDS News announcement because you are a
registered user of the EPA benchmark dose software (BMDS).  As a member
of the BMDS-News list you will periodically receive news and information
related to BMDS.

BMDS-News Announcement #11: EPA is now distributing Version 2.1.1 (Build
55) of the Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS). BMDS 2.1.1 (Build 55)
contains a flexible new feature that allows users to export select BMDS
summary report data and plots to Excel. It also contains a comprehensive
set of sample session and model option files to assist users in running
batch operations, and several improvements to the ten Berge model that
were not available in version 2.1. The Readme.rtf file distributed with
BMDS provides details on the improvements made in Version 2.1.1 (Build
55), installation requirements, and known problems.

IF YOU ALREADY HAVE BMDS 2.1 (BUILD 52) INSTALLED, you need only
download and unzip a SMALL PATCH FILE, which should allow you to upgrade
BMDS without the need for assistance from your local IT/computer support
department.

TO DOWNLOAD BMDS 2.1.1 go to the BMDS website at
http://www.epa.gov/ncea/bmds

Jeff Gift, Ph.D.
National Center for Environmental Assessment
EPA (B243-01)
RTP, NC 27711
919-541-4828
919-541-0245 (fax)
gift.jeff@...


Here are some useful addresses for managing your subscription:

UNSUBSCRIBE: Send a blank message to:
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You can visit this address to change your subscription email address,
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your settings at any time.


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#989 From: "Feder, Paul I" <feder@...>
Date: Tue Nov 10, 2009 8:48 pm
Subject: Last Call for Nominations for DRSG Officers for 2010
feder@...
Send Email Send Email
 

We will soon be sending out a ballot for election of Chair-Elect, Vice Chair, and Trustee at Large.

 

If anyone wants to nominate additional candidates (including yourself) for any of these positions this is the time.

 

Thank you.

 

Paul

Chair, DRSG


#990 From: DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tue Nov 24, 2009 4:56 pm
Subject: DRSG Teleconference, 12/1/2009, 12:00 pm
DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Send Email Send Email
 
Reminder from:   DRSG Yahoo! Group
 
Title:   DRSG Teleconference
 
Date:   Tuesday December 1, 2009
Time:   12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Repeats:   This event repeats every month on the first Tuesday.
Next reminder:   The next reminder for this event will be sent in 6 days, 4 minutes.
Notes:   Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on the first Tuesday of the month. We have 25 lines available for the call.

CALL IN NUMBER: 513-569-7897
CONFEREE CODE: 7217 plus the # sign.
For problem resolution during the call, contact the Help Desk at 513-569-7754.
 
Copyright © 2009  Yahoo! Inc. All Rights Reserved | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy

#991 From: "Feder, Paul I" <feder@...>
Date: Tue Nov 24, 2009 9:40 pm
Subject: RE: DRSG Teleconference, 12/1/2009, 12:00 pm Meeting is Cancelled
feder@...
Send Email Send Email
 

Please note that there will not be a DRSG teleconference on Tuesday December 1. 

 

The December meeting will be a noon meeting on Monday, December 7 as part of the SRA annual meeting.

 

Please let me know if you have any agenda items for the December 7 meeting.

 

Thank you. 

 

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving weekend.

 

Paul Feder

Chair, DRSG

 

From: DRSG@yahoogroups.com [mailto:DRSG@yahoogroups.com]
Sent: Tuesday, November 24, 2009 11:57 AM
To: DRSG@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [DRSG] DRSG Teleconference, 12/1/2009, 12:00 pm

 




Reminder from:

 

DRSG Yahoo! Group

 

Title:

 

DRSG Teleconference

 

Date:

 

Tuesday December 1, 2009

Time:

 

12:00 pm - 1:00 pm

Repeats:

 

This event repeats every month on the first Tuesday.

Next reminder:

 

The next reminder for this event will be sent in 6 days, 4 minutes.

Notes:

 

Our next teleconference will be noon to 1 pm EST, on the first Tuesday of the month. We have 25 lines available for the call.

CALL IN NUMBER: 513-569-7897
CONFEREE CODE: 7217 plus the # sign.
For problem resolution during the call, contact the Help Desk at 513-569-7754.

 

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