MiamiSkywarn : Messages : 1767-1796 of 3165

WUUS52 KMFL 011022
SVRMFL
FLC086-011100-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0120.071001T1020Z-071001T1100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
620 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
   EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 700 AM EDT

* AT 617 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
   LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
   EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
   FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORTH BAY VILLAGE TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
   PRINCETON...AND MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...

   KEY BISCAYNE...
   NORTH BAY VILLAGE...
   NORTH MIAMI...
   LITTLE HAITI...
   ALLAPATTAH...
   CORAL GABLES...
   KENDALL...
   PERRINE...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES AND
AVOID WATER. MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE IF POSSIBLE. AVOID
USING THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 2591 8048 2589 8013 2566 8016 2559 8025
       2556 8020 2552 8020 2550 8028 2537 8026
       2536 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1020Z 089DEG 20KT 2581 8006 2544 8029

$$

STRASSBERG

#1768

From: "Brittany" <k9wolfz@...>
Date: Mon Oct 1, 2007 11:11 am
Subject: CANCELED SEVERE TSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

k9gretchen

The Severe T-storm warning was canceled.

Brittany
-------------- Original message ----------------------
From: "Brittany" <k9wolfz@...>
>
> WUUS52 KMFL 011022
> SVRMFL
> FLC086-011100-
> /O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0120.071001T1020Z-071001T1100Z/
>
> BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
> SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
> 620 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007
>
> THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
>
> * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
>   EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
>
> * UNTIL 700 AM EDT
>
> * AT 617 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
>   LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
>   EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
>   FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORTH BAY VILLAGE TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
>   PRINCETON...AND MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
>
> * THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
>
>   KEY BISCAYNE...
>   NORTH BAY VILLAGE...
>   NORTH MIAMI...
>   LITTLE HAITI...
>   ALLAPATTAH...
>   CORAL GABLES...
>   KENDALL...
>   PERRINE...
>
> AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
>
> FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF
> OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES AND
> AVOID WATER. MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE IF POSSIBLE. AVOID
> USING THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
> UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.
>
> LAT...LON 2591 8048 2589 8013 2566 8016 2559 8025
>       2556 8020 2552 8020 2550 8028 2537 8026
>       2536 8068
> TIME...MOT...LOC 1020Z 089DEG 20KT 2581 8006 2544 8029
>
> $$
>
> STRASSBERG

#1769

From: "Quesada, David" <dquesada@...>
Date: Mon Oct 1, 2007 3:58 pm
Subject: Rain accumulations today

polaron_2000

Name	Time	Temp �F	Rel Humid %	Dew Point �F	Wet Bulb �F	Wind Dir	Wind Speed mph	Bar. Press "Hg	Max Temp �F	Min Temp �F	Wind Gust mph	WChill/ HIndex �F	Rain (day) in	Rain/ Month in	Light %
Archbishop McCarthy HS Fort Lauderdale, FL	11:45 AM	80.40	59.10	64.81	69.91	E	14.25	29.95	80.59	73.21	25.21	82.19	0.03	0.03	31.76
BSO Cooper City Cooper City, FL	11:46 AM	81.16	67.80	69.50	73.02	NNE	3.95	29.92	81.16	72.72	34.86	84.52	0.00	0.00	15.97
BSO Pembroke Park Pembroke Park, FL	11:46 AM	79.88	79.22	72.86	75.02	ENE	12.50	29.95	80.16	72.62	25.21	83.87	0.00	0.00	2.90
Carol City ES Opa Locka, FL	11:46 AM	79.79	73.74	70.66	71.60	NNE	8.11	29.90	80.86	72.65	26.31	83.05	0.54	0.54	3.61
Henry D. Perry MS Miramar, FL	11:46 AM	80.41	70.92	70.10	73.20	NNE	11.18	29.91	80.69	72.81	30.25	83.75	0.66	0.66	9.89
St. Thomas University Miami Gardens, FL	11:46 AM	80.07	72.54	70.44	73.33	NE	8.33	29.95	80.17	71.63	27.84	83.39	1.61	1.61	6.95
Leewood ES Kendall, FL	11:47 AM	72.64	96.55	71.60	71.92	ENE	2.85	29.92	77.26	70.34	27.62	68.01	0.00	0.00	0.05
Miami Children`s Hospital Miami, FL	11:47 AM	73.89	87.00	69.78	71.04	N	6.58	29.95	76.09	69.11	28.06	72.80	2.19	2.19	0.95
Avocado ES Leisure City, FL	11:47 AM	73.82	97.36	73.03	73.27	NE	11.62	29.95	76.52	70.67	27.62	70.10	0.00	0.00	0.00
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Miami, FL	11:47 AM	71.78	100.00	71.77	71.76	NE	5.48	29.90	75.98	69.85	27.84	65.04	1.62	1.62	2.54
City of Miami Beach Police HQ Miami Beach, FL	11:47 AM	74.78	88.95	71.30	72.50	NE	12.28	29.95	78.66	70.79	45.82	73.86	1.84	1.84	27.74
Howard A. Doolin MS Kendall, FL	11:50 AM	74.87	100.00	74.87	75.02	N	3.07	29.94	77.46	70.98	30.47	71.85	0.58	0.57	0.00
Lincoln-Marti School Miami, FL	11:47 AM	72.20	88.47	68.60	69.75	NNE	9.43	29.96	78.44	69.33	32.66	70.02	0.00	0.00	11.44
Miami Dade College Miami, FL	11:48 AM	72.18	95.95	70.96	71.35	NE	3.95	29.92	76.00	69.09	29.59	67.40	0.10	0.10	0.00
North Twin Lakes ES Hialeah, FL	11:50 AM	77.93	74.72	69.25	71.92	N	7.89	29.94	78.95	69.78	24.11	80.06	0.03	0.03	5.03
Ruben Dario MS Miami, FL	11:47 AM	78.26	83.03	72.68	74.28	NNE	6.36	29.96	79.10	71.95	29.16	80.89	0.00	0.00	0.05

Dr. David Quesada, Ph.D.

Assistant Professor

Dept. of Natural Sciences, Mathematics, and Computer Sciences

Weather Laboratory

Saint Thomas University

E-mail: dquesada@...

Office: (305) 474-6910

FAX: (305) 628-6575

#1770

From: Donald Morris <4morris@...>
Date: Wed Oct 3, 2007 5:35 am
Subject: UV Alert for 33165: VERY HIGH - 9 for Oct 3

Clear day, so watch the UV

Don wx0wx
...........

The UV Index Query for ZIP Code: 33165

The UV Index forecast for Wednesday, October 3, 2007 is: 9

Look for Ultraviolet (UV) Index descriptions on:
http://www.epa.gov/sunwise/uvindex.html

-------------------------------------------------------
                 UV ALERT
EPA has issued a UV Alert for your area today

Ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun is expected to be
unusually intense. EPA strongly recommends that you take
the following steps to reduce risk of overexposure:
� Be mindful that UV radiation is highest from 10:00 a.m.
   to 4:00 p.m. and protect yourself accordingly.
� Cover up by wearing a wide-brimmed hat, UV-protective
   sunglasses, and long sleeves.
� Generously apply a broad spectrum sunscreen with UVA
   and UVB protection and an SPF of at least 15 to exposed
   skin. Reapply every 2 hours.
� Use extra caution near water, snow and sand as they
   reflect damaging UV rays.
� Whenever possible seek shade in the midday hours.

While UV intensity is unusually high today and you will
need extra protection, it is important to pay attention to
the daily UV Index and practice sun safety EVERY DAY to
protect yourself from the negative health effects of
overexposure to the sun, including skin cancer, cataracts,
and premature aging.

---------------------------------------------------------


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-------------

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If your mail system does not allow you to click on a link, please cut and paste
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Do not reply directly to this email. If you want more information on UV Alerts
and the UV Index, please visit EPA's SunWise Site at
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you need assistance with managing your notification options please contact EPA's
Central Data Exchange help desk at 1-888-890-1995 or send an email to
epacdx@....

#1771

From: Donald Morris <4morris@...>
Date: Wed Oct 3, 2007 5:43 am
Subject: Re: UV Alert for 33165: VERY HIGH - 9 for Oct 3

Clear day part of the day ... take the sunscreen but also the umbrella.

Don

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=FLZ074

Wednesday...Partly sunny. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. South winds 5 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 80. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Donald Morris wrote:

Clear day, so watch the UV
Don wx0wx
...........
The UV Index Query for ZIP Code: 33165 The UV Index forecast for Wednesday, October 3, 2007 is: 9
Look for Ultraviolet (UV) Index descriptions on:
http://www.epa.gov/sunwise/uvindex.html
-------------------------------------------------------
UV ALERT
EPA has issued a UV Alert for your area today
Ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun is expected to be
unusually intense. EPA strongly recommends that you take
the following steps to reduce risk of overexposure:
� Be mindful that UV radiation is highest from 10:00 a.m.
to 4:00 p.m. and protect yourself accordingly.
� Cover up by wearing a wide-brimmed hat, UV-protective
sunglasses, and long sleeves.
� Generously apply a broad spectrum sunscreen with UVA
and UVB protection and an SPF of at least 15 to exposed
skin. Reapply every 2 hours.
� Use extra caution near water, snow and sand as they
reflect damaging UV rays.
� Whenever possible seek shade in the midday hours.
While UV intensity is unusually high today and you will
need extra protection, it is important to pay attention to
the daily UV Index and practice sun safety EVERY DAY to
protect yourself from the negative health effects of
overexposure to the sun, including skin cancer, cataracts,
and premature aging.
---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This information is provided via the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
This email is being sent to this account at the request of the account user. If you want to change your notification options, or stop receiving notifications, please click on the following link:
https://enviroflash.epa.gov/uv
If your mail system does not allow you to click on a link, please cut and paste the link into your browser window.
Do not reply directly to this email. If you want more information on UV Alerts and the UV Index, please visit EPA's SunWise Site at http://www.epa.gov/sunwise/uvindex.html or send an email to sunwise@.... If you need assistance with managing your notification options please contact EPA's Central Data Exchange help desk at 1-888-890-1995 or send an email to epacdx@....
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#1772

From: "Paul \(Skywarn PB6027\)" <wxwatch@...>
Date: Thu Oct 4, 2007 11:44 pm
Subject: Fw: General Weather Discussion for this Friday and weekend

wxwatcher_007

Sent: Thursday, October 04, 2007 7:44 PM

Subject: General Weather Discussion for this Friday and weekend

Tropical Weather Discussion
Palm Beach County
730 P.M. EDT Thursday October 4, 2007

Use my discussion as supplemental input or information....

Based on NAM WRF GFS forecast upper air charts..satellite Analysis..

Latest NAM WRF model shows area of convection clouds just east of Bahamas
will move Westward and the leading impact area by Friday evening rush hour.
This area of convection and clouds could develop into a weak low and what
is different from the last weak system that passed across Florida has less
shearing with it. The steering pattern for this system will make it a slow mover
through the straits this weekend thereby prolonging rain event from Friday
through into early next week.Therefore closer scrutiny should be made as far as
monitoring this system east of the Bahamas. The development of tropical like low

is more of a potential than last disturbance that moved through Florida early this

week (Monday) .

In any case we can use the rain and Lake Okeechobee will hopefully get
more needed rain this weekend and Monday too.

#1773

From: "Paul \(Skywarn PB6027\)" <wxwatch@...>
Date: Fri Oct 5, 2007 11:01 pm
Subject: Brief Weather Discussion for tonite and this weekend issued 7pm Friday 10/5/2007.

wxwatcher_007

Tropical Weather Discussion
Palm Beach County
700 P.M. EDT Friday October 5, 2007

Use my discussion as supplemental input or information....

Latest RUC Model with CAPE chart shows heaviest storms tonight and
early early Saturday morning for Palm Beach County. This max area
of more stronger heavier storms are effecting our area now and will
do so tonight. Rotations are possible in a few of these storms as helicity

is somewhat there with high capes. The rest of the weekend we will see

inverted trough extension move across Florida Saturday and into the Gulf Sunday.

Daytime heating will be enhanced by this trough for higher than the
normal storm coverage for Central and South Florida. The activity
will persist along Southeast Coastal Florida into this weekend but
become lesser intensity Saturday night into Sunday.

We should see a persistent onshore moist flow into the new work week.
This should keep scattered showers and a few isolated thundershowers
to effect our coast.

Pressure gradient between high to the north of us and low pressure trough
area that will move slowly into the Yucatan into the weekend.

#1774

From: "Paul \(Skywarn PB6027\)" <wxwatch@...>
Date: Sat Oct 6, 2007 3:13 pm
Subject: Updated Tropical Weather Discussion prepared Sat 10/6/2007 1100am

wxwatcher_007

Updated Tropical Weather Discussion
Palm Beach County
1100 A.M. EDT Saturday October 6, 2007

Use my discussion as supplemental input or information....

Activity with rain showers and a few storms will prevail this weekend
but the amount and intensity will not be as much as last night.

Next chance for rain is for a persistent toughness and weak low pressure
area that will prevail in the lower Western Caribbean it will linger there
this upcoming work week and by mid week we may see some of the rain from
that feature being indicated by NAM ETA model to effect Florida. This system
looks to be sandwiched between two highs one in the Southwest Atlantic and the
other in the Western Gulf of Mexico.

It is that time of year that we need to watch for any system to our south
that could move toward our general direction and these typical tropical
like systems originating from the same area like Irene and others could

give us a good dumping of rain.

Will keep monitoring this situation. The upper trough will be already
dug into the Gulf so this also has the potential to eventually lift this
potential system later this work week. Other than that the atmospheric
conditions for major storms has been lacking. Shearing and more

tropospheric low pressure persistence has minimized this.

#1775

From: "Paul \(Skywarn PB6027\)" <wxwatch@...>
Date: Sat Oct 13, 2007 1:57 pm
Subject: Weather Discussion and Climate Outlook preapred 10am Saturday 10/13/2007

wxwatcher_007

General Weather Discussion
Palm Beach County
1000 A.M. EDT Saturday October 13, 2007

Use my discussion as supplemental input or information....

Currently for our area coastal showers will prevail and transition to more
moisture likely. No tropical systems to really see at this time but the latter

part of October especially the last week or so we can still see some possibility

but for now everything seems rather quiet now.

The weekend is here now and looking at this weekend and into this week
and beyond the general consensus is that there will be more moisture
around for shower activity with some storms scattered in as we are now
well into the middle of October. The polar westerlies are more vigorous with
more stronger lows moving across the U.S. this will help to channel in
more moisture from the South and Southeast and Gulf of Mexico for Florida
and this looks to be the trend for the rest of this month. I had anticipated
from climate outlook model for about 6 to 7 inches of rain and as far as
seeing more than that it seems unlikely. We will be just a tad lower in
amounts of rain with errors of a Plus a few inches, range of 6 to 7 inches

seems sensible for our area. I am not seeing the 10 inches or more likely as what
we had last month especially for Palm Beach.

My climate outlook

October
            Monthly Average Temperatures
Tampa       77.2 +2.0 above normal
Palm Beach 79.1 +1.1 above normal
Miami       80.7 +2.1 above normal

            Monthly Rainfall
Tampa       2.60 +0.17 near normal
Palm Beach 7.20 +0.42 slightly above
Miami       6.29 -0.87 below normal

November
            Monthly Average Temperatures
Tampa       64.8 -3.0 below normal
Palm Beach 70.0 -2.4 below normal
Miami       72.9 -0.7 below normal

            Monthly Rainfall
Tampa       3.93 +1.69 above normal
Palm Beach 4.13 +0.05 normal
Miami       1.28 -1.68 below normal

With the jet stream well north of us rather warm weather conditions to continue
no cool down likely but November preliminary numbers show a cool down.
In any case moisture from the lower Western Caribbean and Bahamas will
play a more role in our weather persistence more as we get into the
last half of October with a pretty good cool down for November.

#1776

From: "Paul \(Skywarn PB6027\)" <wxwatch@...>
Date: Sat Oct 20, 2007 1:54 am
Subject: Weather Discussion prepared 10/19/2007 945 pm

wxwatcher_007

General Weather Discussion
Palm Beach County
945 P.M. EDT Friday October 19, 2007

Use my discussion as supplemental input or information....

Latest model from GFS and NAM supports the consensus here
that there will be plenty of moisture for our area as
cold front stalls near Lake O. The activity of storms have
fired up now for this time of night and that shows how
unstable our atmosphere is. We should see more of the same
Saturday and the front will be stationary and become diffuse
Sunday and early next week. The westerlies have been become
more vigorous with troughs beginning to become more sharper
and playing more of a role to give our area rain. The next
trough will move toward our area by later in the week
next week.

Interesting to see as we get into the last few days of the
month of October and beginning period of November GFS
has climatologically shown still the possibility of a
tropical system moving out of the western Caribbean.

So the hurricane season although we saw weak storms and
not as much activity as compared to 2004 and 2005 we still
have that window of opportunity for at least a tropical
storm intensity or outside possibility of Cat 1 potential
for the Western Caribbean and Florida.

#1777

From: "Paul \(Skywarn PB6027\)" <wxwatch@...>
Date: Sat Oct 20, 2007 11:44 am
Subject: Climate Update for October 2007

wxwatcher_007

General Weather Discussion
Palm Beach County
730 A.M. EDT Saturday October 20, 2007

Use my discussion as supplemental input or information....

My climate outlook based on 1944-2007 climate data.

October
            Monthly Average Temperatures
Tampa       77.2 +2.0 above normal
Updated     76.7 +1.5 above normal
So far      81.2 +6.0 above normal

Palm Beach 79.1 +1.1 above normal
Updated 78.8 +0.8 above normal

So Far 81.3 +3.3 above normal

Miami       80.7 +2.1 above normal
Updated     80.4 +1.8 above normal
So Far      82.1 +3.5 above normal

            Monthly Rainfall
Tampa       2.60 +0.17 near normal
Updated     4.10 +1.67 above normal
So Far      0.78 -3.35 below normal

Palm Beach 7.20 +0.42 slightly above
Updated 8.75 +1.97 above normal
So Far 10.32 +3.54 above normal

Miami       6.29 -0.87 below normal
Updated     5.94 -1.22 below normal
So Far      5.56 -1.60 below normal

Latest run I made using conservative .03-.04 training error of
neural network model we see that for Palm Beach we have
close to 9 inches. We are running above that so it looks
like we did reach 10 inches or more. This goes a little more
than average error of 1-2 inches rain..Palm Beach and
Tampa rainfall being higher now is the result of more moisture
and rain being brought up by approaching cold front and more
vigorous troughs in the U.S. and Gulf coast. Also average temperatures
running higher than anticipated. We still can see those number lower
a bit average wise as we get the last half of October done.

Tampa will catch up with the rain as frontal boundary moves back

north also more emphasis of rain North and Central Florida.

#1778

From: "Brittany" <k9wolfz@...>
Date: Sun Oct 28, 2007 6:11 am
Subject: Tropical depression SIXTEEN

k9gretchen

URL: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5day#contents

TNT31 KNHC 280554
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR ABOUT
185 MILES...295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...
11 KM/HR.  A MOTION TOWARD NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...16.0 N...71.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

#1779

From: "Paul \(Skywarn PB6027\)" <wxwatch@...>
Date: Tue Oct 30, 2007 2:00 am
Subject: Tropical Discussion...prepared 10/29/2007 945pm MOnday

wxwatcher_007

Tropical Weather Discussion
Palm Beach County
945 P.M. EDT Monday October 29, 2007

Use my discussion as supplemental input or information....

Tropical storm NOEL slowly moving Northwest next 36 to 48hrs.
Stationary front across Central Florida. Strong high pressure
is building north of this front and upper southwest winds
will not be able to lift NOEL away from Florida until after
midweek. More control is the mid level to low level steering
flow with both front and high pressure pushing down on NOEL.

SO for now increase in sustained winds as NOEL looks to move
between Andros and NW Bahamas next 36 to 48hrs.

We may see more brief rain squalls and winds will be more
sustained from 30-35 and higher gusts. Highest QPF and rainfall
looks to stay offshore of Southeast coastal Florida since mid to
upper level winds will be from the South to Southwest through the
period. However low level topped showers/thundershowers some with
heavy downpours are likely.

#1780

From: Dale <biscayne@...>
Date: Tue Oct 30, 2007 7:57 pm
Subject: Automated Report from KR4OR: wind speed at or above 30mph

biscayne@...

The following measured weather data was observed near SW 97 Ave and 72 St
(Sunset Dr) Miami FL 33173
030 mph from 96 deg (E  ) Temp 81F at 10/30/2007 3:57:28 PM
In 15 minutes another report will be sent briefly summarizing the subsequent
quarter hour.

Reply | Messages in this Topic (7)

#1781

From: Dale <biscayne@...>
Date: Tue Oct 30, 2007 8:11 pm
Subject: Summary Wind Gust Report from KR4OR

biscayne@...

Summary for the 15min following the preceding report observed near SW 97 Ave and
72 St (Sunset Dr) Miami FL 33173

Maximum wind speed for the period: 35 mph.


Average wind speed for the period: 13.9 mph.

030 mph from 96 deg (E  ) Temp 81F 10/30/2007 3:57:28 PM
021 mph from 77 deg (ENE) Temp 81F 10/30/2007 3:58:29 PM
014 mph from 69 deg (ENE) Temp 81F 10/30/2007 3:59:29 PM
014 mph from 69 deg (ENE) Temp 81F 10/30/2007 4:00:29 PM
008 mph from 65 deg (ENE) Temp 81F 10/30/2007 4:01:29 PM
016 mph from 38 deg (NE ) Temp 81F 10/30/2007 4:02:29 PM
011 mph from 21 deg (NNE) Temp 81F 10/30/2007 4:03:29 PM
014 mph from 26 deg (NNE) Temp 81F 10/30/2007 4:04:29 PM
019 mph from 82 deg (E  ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:05:29 PM
011 mph from 62 deg (ENE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:06:29 PM
011 mph from 86 deg (E  ) Temp 79F 10/30/2007 4:07:29 PM
008 mph from 118 deg (ESE) Temp 79F 10/30/2007 4:08:29 PM
017 mph from 64 deg (ENE) Temp 78F 10/30/2007 4:09:29 PM
008 mph from 78 deg (ENE) Temp 78F 10/30/2007 4:10:29 PM
008 mph from 106 deg (ESE) Temp 78F 10/30/2007 4:11:29 PM

Threshold for further automated reports is 30 mph.

#1782

From: Dale <biscayne@...>
Date: Tue Oct 30, 2007 8:21 pm
Subject: Automated Report from KR4OR: wind speed at or above 30mph

biscayne@...

The following measured weather data was observed near SW 97 Ave and 72 St
(Sunset Dr) Miami FL 33173
030 mph from 85 deg (E  ) Temp 80F at 10/30/2007 4:21:59 PM
In 15 minutes another report will be sent briefly summarizing the subsequent
quarter hour.

Reply | Messages in this Topic (7)

#1783

From: Dale <biscayne@...>
Date: Tue Oct 30, 2007 8:35 pm
Subject: Summary Wind Gust Report from KR4OR

biscayne@...

Summary for the 15min following the preceding report observed near SW 97 Ave and
72 St (Sunset Dr) Miami FL 33173

Maximum wind speed for the period: 35 mph.


Average wind speed for the period: 14.3 mph.

030 mph from 85 deg (E  ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:21:59 PM
020 mph from 65 deg (ENE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:22:59 PM
012 mph from 71 deg (ENE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:23:59 PM
013 mph from 44 deg (NE ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:24:59 PM
021 mph from 71 deg (ENE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:25:59 PM
016 mph from 84 deg (E  ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:26:59 PM
013 mph from 50 deg (NE ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:27:59 PM
010 mph from 51 deg (NE ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:28:59 PM
028 mph from 74 deg (ENE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:29:59 PM
017 mph from 55 deg (NE ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:30:59 PM
023 mph from 57 deg (ENE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:31:59 PM
016 mph from 55 deg (NE ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:32:59 PM
020 mph from 84 deg (E  ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:33:59 PM
013 mph from 1 deg (N  ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:34:59 PM
021 mph from 27 deg (NNE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:35:59 PM

Threshold for further automated reports is 30 mph.

#1784

From: Dale <biscayne@...>
Date: Tue Oct 30, 2007 8:40 pm
Subject: Automated Report from KR4OR: wind speed at or above 30mph

biscayne@...

The following measured weather data was observed near SW 97 Ave and 72 St
(Sunset Dr) Miami FL 33173
030 mph from 85 deg (E  ) Temp 80F at 10/30/2007 4:40:55 PM
In 15 minutes another report will be sent briefly summarizing the subsequent
quarter hour.

Reply | Messages in this Topic (7)

#1785

From: "Quesada, David" <dquesada@...>
Date: Tue Oct 30, 2007 8:38 pm
Subject: Weather conditions across Miami Dade and South Broward

polaron_2000

Name	Time	Rel Humid %	Dew Point �F	Wet Bulb �F	Wind Dir	Wind Speed mph	Bar. Press "Hg	Max Temp �F	Min Temp �F	Wind Gust mph	Rain (day) in	Rain/ Month in
BSO Pembroke Park Pembroke Park, FL	4:21 PM	75.55	71.56	74.03	ESE	6.14	29.93	82.07	75.99	30.25	0.00	0.34
Carol City ES Opa Locka, FL	4:21 PM	70.49	70.04	73.18	ENE	18.41	29.86	83.27	72.75	32.23	0.00	5.24
Henry D. Perry MS Miramar, FL	4:21 PM	69.21	69.01	72.37	NE	22.36	29.88	82.04	76.13	37.49	0.22	6.64
St. Thomas University Miami Gardens, FL	4:21 PM	72.26	70.11	73.02	NE	7.89	29.93	82.60	75.23	34.86	0.03	6.73
City of Miami Beach Police HQ Miami Beach, FL	4:21 PM	77.02	69.71	72.09	NE	18.41	29.91	79.84	72.98	35.29	0.01	6.55
Miami Children`s Hospital Miami, FL	4:21 PM	73.17	68.38	71.42	NNE	8.99	29.90	80.31	73.84	36.17	0.02	5.60
Avocado ES Leisure City, FL	4:25 PM	76.61	72.59	74.91	NE	6.14	29.91	84.17	76.80	32.66	0.00	0.11
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Miami, FL	4:25 PM	75.54	69.17	71.73	ENE	14.91	29.86	79.99	73.91	31.57	0.03	5.91
Hialeah SHS Hialeah, FL	4:25 PM	71.72	68.83	71.89	NE	9.43	29.92	81.38	73.62	32.23	0.35	0.36
Lincoln-Marti School Miami, FL	4:25 PM	70.45	68.19	71.60	NE	14.47	29.92	81.47	75.01	28.50	0.00	0.07
Miami Dade College Miami, FL	4:25 PM	76.55	69.51	71.94	E	12.71	29.88	81.12	73.58	38.36	0.00	2.90
North Twin Lakes ES Hialeah, FL	4:25 PM	67.56	68.80	72.39	ESE	4.60	29.91	84.46	75.01	34.20	0.03	1.23
Redland MS Redland, FL	4:25 PM	78.08	70.76	72.97	ENE	5.04	29.90	82.32	74.62	34.86	0.02	11.03
Cutler Ridge MS Miami, FL	4:25 PM	77.88	70.98	73.20	N	5.26	29.91	82.57	75.81	32.66	0.00	11.65
Citrus Grove ES Miami, FL	4:30 PM	71.16	69.97	73.02	E	10.96	29.91	83.61	75.91	33.98	0.00	6.01
Barry University Miami Shores, FL	4:30 PM	68.68	67.97	71.60	NE	7.45	29.92	81.75	73.60	30.03	0.00	2.66
BSO Dania Beach Dania, FL	4:30 PM	69.11	67.77	71.22	ENE	22.80	29.92	80.16	74.37	38.36	0.00	2.45

Dr. David Quesada, Ph.D.

Assistant Professor

Dept. of Natural Sciences, Mathematics, and Computer Sciences

Weather Laboratory

Saint Thomas University

E-mail: dquesada@...

Office: (305) 474-6910

FAX: (305) 628-6575

#1786

From: Dale <biscayne@...>
Date: Tue Oct 30, 2007 8:54 pm
Subject: Summary Wind Gust Report from KR4OR

biscayne@...

Summary for the 15min following the preceding report observed near SW 97 Ave and
72 St (Sunset Dr) Miami FL 33173

Maximum wind speed for the period: 35 mph.


Average wind speed for the period: 14.6 mph.

030 mph from 85 deg (E  ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:40:55 PM
013 mph from 41 deg (NE ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:41:55 PM
013 mph from 62 deg (ENE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:42:55 PM
011 mph from 54 deg (NE ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:43:55 PM
014 mph from 85 deg (E  ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:44:55 PM
011 mph from 52 deg (NE ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:45:55 PM
017 mph from 62 deg (ENE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:46:55 PM
017 mph from 71 deg (ENE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:47:55 PM
014 mph from 58 deg (ENE) Temp 81F 10/30/2007 4:48:55 PM
009 mph from 44 deg (NE ) Temp 81F 10/30/2007 4:49:55 PM
015 mph from 79 deg (E  ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:50:55 PM
011 mph from 64 deg (ENE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:51:55 PM
013 mph from 128 deg (SE ) Temp 81F 10/30/2007 4:52:55 PM
021 mph from 72 deg (ENE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:53:55 PM
022 mph from 50 deg (NE ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 4:54:55 PM

Threshold for further automated reports is 35 mph.

#1787

From: Dale <biscayne@...>
Date: Tue Oct 30, 2007 10:14 pm
Subject: Automated Report from KR4OR: wind speed at or above 35mph

biscayne@...

The following measured weather data was observed near SW 97 Ave and 72 St
(Sunset Dr) Miami FL 33173
035 mph from 68 deg (ENE) Temp 79F at 10/30/2007 6:14:49 PM
In 15 minutes another report will be sent briefly summarizing the subsequent
quarter hour.

Reply | Messages in this Topic (4)

#1788

From: Dale <biscayne@...>
Date: Tue Oct 30, 2007 10:28 pm
Subject: Summary Wind Gust Report from KR4OR

biscayne@...

Summary for the 15min following the preceding report observed near SW 97 Ave and
72 St (Sunset Dr) Miami FL 33173

Maximum wind speed for the period: 35 mph.


Average wind speed for the period: 14.6 mph.

035 mph from 68 deg (ENE) Temp 79F 10/30/2007 6:14:49 PM
011 mph from 78 deg (ENE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 6:15:50 PM
014 mph from 16 deg (NNE) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 6:16:50 PM
023 mph from 74 deg (ENE) Temp 79F 10/30/2007 6:17:50 PM
010 mph from 95 deg (E  ) Temp 78F 10/30/2007 6:18:50 PM
011 mph from 58 deg (ENE) Temp 79F 10/30/2007 6:19:50 PM
010 mph from 67 deg (ENE) Temp 79F 10/30/2007 6:20:50 PM
018 mph from 94 deg (E  ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 6:21:50 PM
019 mph from 54 deg (NE ) Temp 79F 10/30/2007 6:22:50 PM
015 mph from 54 deg (NE ) Temp 79F 10/30/2007 6:23:50 PM
014 mph from 40 deg (NE ) Temp 80F 10/30/2007 6:24:50 PM
021 mph from 72 deg (ENE) Temp 78F 10/30/2007 6:25:50 PM
018 mph from 102 deg (ESE) Temp 78F 10/30/2007 6:26:50 PM
008 mph from 86 deg (E  ) Temp 79F 10/30/2007 6:27:50 PM
015 mph from 60 deg (ENE) Temp 79F 10/30/2007 6:28:50 PM

Threshold for further automated reports is 35 mph.

#1789

From: Donald Morris <4morris@...>
Date: Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:57 pm
Subject: CRITERIA FOR WEATHER REPORTING DURING NOEL

Spotters are requested to report the following:

- Measured wind gusts over 40 mph.

- Any wind related damage

- Any tidal flooding including water over seawalls, overwash, etc.

- Excessive rainfalls or localized
  flooding if it completely covers the road or threatens buildings

There is an internet reporting form here ("click here to report severe
weather" )
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/severe.php

Spotters have an 800 number

In Dade County I will monitor 147.000 and 146.345 - Don WX0WX (cell
786-339-1993)

Criteria is per:

Robert Molleda
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service 11691 SW 17th ST
Miami, FL 33165
305-229-4520
Fax: 305-229-4553
Robert.Molleda@...

#1790

From: "Donald Morris" <donmia@...>
Date: Wed Oct 31, 2007 6:46 pm
Subject: Re: CRITERIA FOR WEATHER REPORTING DURING NOEL

I miswrote the secondary repeater frequency, this is a correction.

In Dade County I will monitor 147.000 and *147.345*
Don WX0WX (cell 786-339-1993)

On 10/31/07, Donald Morris <4morris@...> wrote:

Spotters are requested to report the following:

- Measured wind gusts over 40 mph.

- Any wind related damage

- Any tidal flooding including water over seawalls, overwash, etc.

- Excessive rainfalls or localized
flooding if it completely covers the road or threatens buildings

There is an internet reporting form here ("click here to report severe
weather" )
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/severe.php

Spotters have an 800 number

In Dade County I will monitor 147.000 and (X146.345X WRONG - It is 147.345)

Criteria is per:

Robert Molleda
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service 11691 SW 17th ST
Miami, FL 33165
305-229-4520
Fax: 305-229-4553
Robert.Molleda@...

#1791

From: "Quesada, David" <dquesada@...>
Date: Wed Oct 31, 2007 8:17 pm
Subject: Weather summary for today until 4.15 EDT (20:15Z)

polaron_2000

Name	Time	Temp �F	Wind Dir	Wind Speed mph	Bar. Press "Hg	Max Temp �F	Min Temp �F	Wind Gust mph	Rain (day) in	Rain/ Month in
Avocado ES Leisure City, FL	3:50 PM	80.46	ENE	16.22	29.77	83.05	74.33	33.98	0.00	0.11
City of Miami Beach Police HQ Miami Beach, FL	3:51 PM	74.22	E	12.50	29.78	78.38	72.42	37.71	0.35	7.08
Cutler Ridge MS Miami, FL	3:50 PM	77.62	NE	18.41	29.78	80.71	73.45	31.79	0.18	12.53
Redland MS Redland, FL	3:50 PM	78.22	ESE	3.73	29.77	80.58	73.32	34.64	0.27	11.79
Miami Dade College Miami, FL	3:56 PM	74.54	NNE	5.04	29.76	79.49	71.84	36.39	0.00	2.99
North Twin Lakes ES Hialeah, FL	3:55 PM	73.15	E	1.97	29.78	82.77	72.09	27.18	0.06	1.29
Carol City ES Opa Locka, FL	3:55 PM	76.48	ENE	16.44	29.80	81.47	74.33	31.57	0.57	5.91
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Miami, FL	3:55 PM	73.91	ENE	1.53	29.73	78.29	72.00	33.54	0.11	6.11
CBS4 WFOR TV Miami, FL	3:56 PM	72.22	NNE	7.45	29.78	79.82	71.89	37.27	0.61	12.04
Flamingo ES Hialeah, FL	3:55 PM	74.14	ENE	7.23	29.74	81.46	73.07	30.47	1.24	2.56
Hialeah SHS Hialeah, FL	3:55 PM	72.84	SE	4.17	29.79	81.39	72.27	32.01	1.88	2.77
Lincoln-Marti School Miami, FL	3:55 PM	73.94	ENE	1.97	29.79	79.35	71.92	33.54	0.00	0.08
North Twin Lakes ES Hialeah, FL	3:55 PM	73.15	E	1.97	29.78	82.77	72.09	27.18	0.06	1.29
Ruben Dario MS Miami, FL	3:55 PM	74.71	NNE	9.43	29.80	81.29	74.32	34.64	0.00	0.87
Lamar Louise Curry MS Miami, FL	4:01 PM	73.82	E	1.10	29.79	80.23	72.97	30.03	0.33	10.54
Miami Children`s Hospital Miami, FL	4:01 PM	72.71	N	8.33	29.78	78.34	71.64	30.69	0.46	6.33
Ronald W Reagan/Doral SHS Miami, FL	4:01 PM	72.21	E	6.14	29.80	78.96	71.20	46.04	1.44	10.61
Shenandoah MS Miami, FL	4:05 PM	75.94	NE	8.11	29.78	80.61	73.81	35.29	0.41	2.95
Barry University Miami Shores, FL	4:06 PM	73.25	N	1.53	29.79	79.79	71.17	28.50	1.38	4.07
BSO Dania Beach Dania, FL	4:06 PM	76.29	ENE	22.80	29.78	78.14	73.30	40.12	0.00	2.45
BSO Pembroke Park Pembroke Park, FL	4:06 PM	75.38	ENE	8.99	29.79	79.31	72.51	30.69	0.00	0.34
Henry D. Perry MS Miramar, FL	4:06 PM	77.03	ENE	12.06	29.74	79.73	72.97	36.17	0.04	6.70
St. Thomas University Miami Gardens, FL	4:06 PM	74.39	ENE	12.06	29.79	81.40	72.87	36.83	0.66	7.41

Dr. David Quesada, Ph.D.

Assistant Professor

Dept. of Natural Sciences, Mathematics, and Computer Sciences

Weather Laboratory

Saint Thomas University

E-mail: dquesada@...

Office: (305) 474-6910

FAX: (305) 628-6575

#1792

From: "Brittany" <k9wolfz@...>
Date: Wed Oct 31, 2007 10:48 pm
Subject: Live picture beach tropical storm noel

k9gretchen

From hollywood fl beach
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

#1793

From: "Brittany" <k9wolfz@...>
Date: Wed Oct 31, 2007 10:51 pm
Subject: Another live picture from tropical storm noel

k9gretchen

Another picture
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

#1794

From: "Brittany" <k9wolfz@...>
Date: Wed Oct 31, 2007 10:56 pm
Subject: More pics tropic storm noel

k9gretchen

Hollywood fl beach
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

#1795

From: "Brittany" <k9wolfz@...>
Date: Thu Nov 1, 2007 1:22 am
Subject: TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A

k9gretchen

URL: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TCPAT1

000
WTNT31 KNHC 312352
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
800 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO
JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 22.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND A
GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...78.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

#1796

From: "Paul \(Skywarn PB6027\)" <wxwatch@...>
Date: Thu Nov 1, 2007 3:02 am
Subject: Fw: Lightning counts long range 50-100 miles+

wxwatcher_007

http://bellsouthpwp.net/w/x/wxwatch/Lightning_Data/NWSPB6027.jpg

My lightning counts...stormwise antennas N-S and E-W direction......

http://bellsouthpwp.net/w/x/wxwatch/Lightning_Data/PB6027.txt

-----

Looks like not much lightning offshore..

My own detector was picking occasional hits earlier evening with the bands across treasure coast

bit more than the earlier daytime period where there were hardly any pulses..in these squalls..typical

low counts with the fringe circulation of tropical cyclones with the bands moving across our area.

Boltek lightning detectors..web server..

http://www.strikestarus.com/

Sfc pressure 29.84 here in PBG near mall holding steady now.

Paul