Issued Monday, February 09, 2009 at 9:12 PM CST.

Potentially Dangerous Weather Situation developing for Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas and Northeastern Texas Tue Feb 10 2009.

Good evening,

Late this evening conditions are calm after this morning’s round of showers and thunderstorms.  Several locations in Southwestern Missouri, Southeastern Kansas and Northwestern Arkansas reported wind gusts to near 60 MPH as the line passed through during the mid morning hours.  In Northeastern Oklahoma heavy rainfall and wind gusts to around 50 MPH were common as the dry-line and showers and thunderstorms associated with the dry-line passed through during the early morning hours before Sunrise.  No significant damage was reported from this activity. 

The system responsible for the showers and thunderstorms this morning has passed into the Midwestern, Ohio, and Tennessee valley area and has left the area. 

Behind this system winds have become southwesterly and conditions are much dryer producing high fire dangers across all of the area with the warming temperatures and strong winds through the afternoon.  Temperatures warned into the mid 60’s to mid 70’s across much of the area as relative humidity values fell into the mid 20% range late this afternoon across far Northwestern Oklahoma. 

As of 6 PM the boundary responsible for the showers and thunderstorms had become stationary and extended from West Central Missouri southwest to parallel I-44 through Joplin, Miami, Tulsa, to near Pregue south to near Ada Oklahoma to near the Gainsville Texas area and further south.  This boundary will rapidly evict northward during the early morning on Tuesday bringing a return to Gulf moisture to the area ahead of another potent upper-level storm system approaching the area from the northwest. 

As the upper-level storm moves through the area late afternoon on Tuesday deep sheering will begin to affect the area ahead of a frontal boundary that will move southeast through the area during that period.  Ahead of the front CAPE values will reach the 2,200 j / kg range and lifted index values will range from –4 to –8 over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas ahead of the front.  Along the front sheering and daytime heating will destabilize the atmosphere allowing for a squall-line to develop with the frontal passage.  Where the atmosphere becomes extremely unstable and CAPE values maximize in conjunction with the increased low-level surface winds isolated discrete super-cell development will be possible after 4 PM over far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas ahead of the squall-line.  These super-cells will then have the capability to become enhanced super-cells with the potential to produce large and destructive tornadoes over far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern and Western Arkansas generally south and east of a Mountain Home Arkansas to Fayetteville to Tahlequah Oklahoma to Shawnee to Ardmore Oklahoma to Gainsville Texas to Plaino Texas to Oakcliff to Texarkana line in the district. 

Large and destructive tornadoes are tornadoes that have the potential to cause EF-2 to EF-5 damage or damage that can be a minimum of lifting the rooftops from houses and more. 

If super-cells develop the best time would be after 4 PM with super-cells continuing to develop through Midnight when heating and increased sheering is expected to be greatest ahead of the front and upper-storm system.  These are expected to be high-precipitation producing storms with the potential for rain-wrapped tornadoes increasing as the night progresses.  In addition to the rain-wrapped tornado threat there is the possibility that super-cell generated tornadoes would occur at night while many are sleeping.  During the night time hours rain-wrapped tornadoes are hard to spot and seasoned storm-spotters are best suited for this kind of spotting duty. 

In the squall-line that develops the main threat will be from strong straight-line winds of between 55 and 70 MPH and hail f up to half-dollar sized any time after 1 PM.  In the larger super-cells that develop it is possible that hail of up to baseball sized, and winds of 80 MPH could affect those under any super-cells that pass through or develop. 

Another threat is the potential for heavy rainfall given the rapid and large amount of moisture returning to the area.  Some locations that see super-cells move through their area may later be affected by the squall-line adding to the already existent rainfall totals.  Flash flooding may be a threat for several areas especially over far Southeastern and Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern and Western Arkansas overnight on Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. 

Residents are urged to monitor for the latest severe weather information and if you have a National Service Weather or All Hazard Radio properly maintain it by insuring it is in good working order and has backup batteries during this potentially dangerous severe weather situation. 

Beginning at Noon I will be on the computer monitoring radars and all severe weather services to insure that the latest information can be passed on to you through the evening and overnight hours.  If you need specialized tracking of the severe weather please contact me by e-mail and give your best method of contact such as e-mail, chat, cell phone, etc, and information on how you can be best reached using the quickest method of contact.  I can be reached at (918) 961-1364 any time tomorrow by phone or by e-mail at BRCross2768@... - for speech readers that’s B R Cross at S B C Global dot net for my e-mail address.  Messenger services will be active and I can respond either by PC or by cell-phone if I loose my Internet connection. 

For as long as I have an Internet connection radar services will remain active.  Updates continue to work properly and you can have a sighted person view them if you need them at the following address on the web or those who have sight may download the images as they are updated from my terminal from the same. 

• Tulsa National Service Radar viewed from the digital high or super-resolution image with frontal boundary, temperature, severe weather outlook, and severe weather watch and weather station overlays – www.oklahomathunder.150m.com/kinx_level2.jpg - this is a temporary site and may exceed it’s bandwith limitations.  For speech reader purposes that’s w w w dot Oklahoma thunder as one word followed by a dot and the numbers 1 5 0 and the letter m ad in Mary dot com forward slash k I n x then the underline or shift of the dash key followed by the word level then the number 2 then dot then the letters j p g. 

In the event that the bandwith limitation or Internet connectivity is lost I will continue to update you by phone through multimidea services out of my cell phone through my owned group at the following web address.  Messages at that point would be posted to the group with a sound file attached to each message and photos if there are any storm photos from damage here should it occur.  The only owned group where this takes place is Oklahoma Weather at the following web address as a yahoo group on Yahoo Grups. 

• http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/okweatherboard/ - Oklahoma Weatherboard.  For speech reader purposes that’s h t t p followed by two forward slashes then the word tech dot groups dot yahoo dot com, then forward slash group, forward slash o k weatherboard as one word and then the forward slash.  Press return after entering that and wait for the grop’s page to load. 

On the page you’ll also find the two radars – clicking on each of the images for either the Oklahoma City or Tulsa radars for my system’s uploads should allow you to view the larger image. 

Early warning systems that draw directly from the National Weather Service Emergency Messaging services will activated around Noon on Tuesday when I am at the terminal. 

Those involved in spotting and those involved in the Office of Emergency Management should prepare for activation as all modes of severe weather are expected during the day on Tuesday. 

Because of the potential for significant dangers in this kind of situation this will also be posted as an unusual step on Miami Oklahoma Café to insure safety for those who might need this while out during the day on Tuesday.  As the owner of this group it is my decision to post on that group this kind of information.  This is not usually taken but as explained will be in this situation only where a potentially dangerous issue is possible of this magnitude. 

Brian R Cross.

Good evening,

At 9:01:13 PM CST Tulsa and Norman Oklahoma radar indicated a large area of showers and thunderstorms with a squall-line continuing to advance through the entire State of Oklahoma.  The squall-line extended from near Killene Texas north to near Plano Texas to near Marietta Oklahoma to near Shawnee Oklahoma to near the Okmulgee Oklahoma area to near Grove Oklahoma to near Joplin Missouri to near Pittsburg Kansas. 

The strongest activity was near the Love Field area in Fort Worth and near the Marietta area. 

A tornado watch remains in affect through 10 PM over Northeastern Oklahoma, and until Midnight over a large part of Eastern and Southeastern Oklahoma. 

Along the squall-line strong straight line winds and penny sized hail with the potential for a brief tornado still remains a threat.  Isolated super-cells are still possible but the chances for super-cell development have become less likely with the decreased low-level wind flow and the reduction of daytime heating with sunset.  With super-cells that develop large and destructive tornadoes and large hail along with strong straight line winds ranging from 60 to 80 MPH are still possible.  Hail as large as golf-balls may damage some automobiles, and other property overnight. 

Heavy rainfall is still a serious threat over much of Northeastern, East Central Oklahoma and Western Arkansas through Sunrise Wednesday as additional rainfall in response to the upper-level storm system moves through the area.  The heavy rainfall may bring as much as 2 to 4 inches in isolated locations overnight especially in Western Arkansas and far Eastern Oklahoma where numerous isolated storms moved through the area earlier this afternoon and evening. 

The threat of hot-strike lightning remains in place especially over Northeastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas with the super-cell and elevated thunderstorm development with the upper-storm. 

Residents are urged to continue to monitor for severe weather watches and warnings through 6 AM – and remain aware of any watches and warnings issued at least until 3 AM Wednesday morning. 

Brian R Cross.

Good evening,

As many of you know I have been tracking severe weather crossing the area tonight.  Earlier this evening warning messages were released when a tornado-producing storm was tracked moving into Carter County from the southwest heading for Lone Grove, and Wilson Oklahoma.  I was able to get all persons warned and those of my family were safely given enough time to get to safety. 

However, we are not without some losses. 

I wanted to let everyone know that I was just officially notified that my Father did loose his home in Lone Grove Oklahoma this evening when an EF-4 struck that area.  He lost his entire trailer home as it was picked up and carried 1.4 miles from it’s location and scattered across the countryside. 

My father is safe but the following information is now coming in to my area. 

• Three dead, 51 injuries. 
• 94 homes destroyed.
• No power to all of Lone Grove.
• Major natural gas leak now reported in Lone Grove.

As of now this is a major disaster area.  More information will be in shortly. 

NOTE:  Official mapping from storm report below. 

NOTE:  Search and rescue are still seeking victims.  Please DO NOT go to this area unless you are EMS or an official with the storm recovery effort. 

Special thanks to Evan Bookbinder for a software program that I’ve been very confident with for a great while now and very much appreciate.  That and Interwarn aided in the careful coordination of and release of information to the family members who needed it most. 

Brian R Cross.

Good afternoon,

This is an update on the Loan Grove tornado that so far has killed 8 people with more victims possibly from the 32 missing still in that area. 

My Father was in the Bar-K mobile home park – one of two that were completely destroyed in that area last night – February 10^th 2009. 

At present there is no power, water, or gas in all of Loan Grove.  There were 87 homes completely destroyed and 8 fatalities.  There are 33 missing as of my pone call with my Father this afternoon – the only one who I did not have a phone number for as the storms approached and could warn.  His home along with several friends who live there were destroyed. 

My Father stated that the only warning he had was a single message that appeared on television 5 minutes before the twister struck.  He left immediately taking with him the dogs and saw the massive twister enter the park as he outran the tornado in his car. 

The Weather Channel has asked a question and sense my Father and I are close this question was easy to answer.  But as of yet I have no way to contact them to answer the question for them and they’ve not asked it of the community.  The questioned asked was “Doesn’t the law require that the mobile home park have a weather service radio or siren in the park to warn of severe weather”/   The answer is NO.  It’s up to the contract as given by the park manager or land-lord.  The Bar-K park there does not have an office and as such there are no rules for requiring a siren or early warning system there such as an NWS radio.  The only warnings any of my friends got was ME watching the radar and monitoring for warnings online and chatting with spotters following it.  Those I could contact had anywhere from 15 to 45 minutes warning and were long gone before this thing hit. 

Evan’s program combined with AllisonHouse feeds greatly assisted in keeping my clients, family and friends safe for who I had contacts for.  Spotter and other meteorological training further assisted me as well as 35 years of experience wit these things in life sense an early age. 

If you have need of an early warning system get StormLab, and InterWARN and PLEASE purchase a NWS Weather radio and keep it handy.  Staying safe in situations like this may most likely save your life. 

Brian R Cross.

NOTE:  Members of the Ardmore Oklahoma Weather group are REQUIRED to acknowledge this message – it was sent as a special message for members to read.  You need only respond to this message – no comments are necessary. 

If you are not a member of the Ardmore Oklahoma Weather group you do not need to respond or acknowledge this message. 

Good evening,

This message is being sent to the residents of Ardmore Oklahoma on this board. 

Lone Grove is receiving National attention after the EF-3 tornado passed through that area yesterday evening February 10^th, 2009.  At this hour there are now 9 fatalities recorded based on the National information.  However, local search and rescue have not yet completed their searches but should complete these operations tonight.  Search and rescue, recovery teams, and law enforcement are attempting to locate the missing to account for everyone in Lone Grove.  Cadaber dogs, and other search and rescue animals are being used to search empty trailer homes, vehicles and other structures to search for possible survivors or dead. 

It is important to understand that until the search and recovery efforts are officially closed those seeking to view the damage should NOT venture into the area until further notice.  If you are an official part of the search and rescue, research and recovery efforts you should report to your operations director for information on your duties and needed deployment. 

At this time it does appear that this will officially be classed as an EF-3 or Enhanced F-3 scale tornado with winds of between 136 and 165 MPH as seen from the official EF scale as explained below.  For more information see the link below. 

• http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ef-scale.html - Enhanced EF Scale numbering and ratings tabular page. 
• http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/ - Engineering specifications as given through the Storms Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma with graphics and explanations.

Special researchers with the Storms Prediction Center in Norman will conduct necessary research with engineering kits that help make the determinations necessary to get an idea as to the strength of the tornado that passed through Lone Grove. 

This will be the last notice on this situation tonight.  If however you have questions contact me by messenger or e-mail. 

Brian R Cross.

Issued at 10:26 PM CST Sunday, February 15, 2009.

Brian R Cross – BRCross2768@...

(918) 961-1364 – Miami, Oklahoma.

Severe Weather Outbreak for the Mississippi / Louisiana Area Wednesday February 18^th 2009

            On Thursday February 12^th, 2009 many of you are aware that an EF-4 on the Enhanced Fujita Tornado Damage Scale struck the Lone Grove, Oklahoma killing 9 and injuring 58 people. 

            This next system has the same potential for much of the Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas and Tennessee area for Wednesday February 18^th, 2009 primarily during the late afternoon and evening as a powerful upper-level storm system and cold front move through the area. 

            This system will begin as a Dry Line and cold front with low-pressure area across western Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas and rapidly advance eastward merging with the cold front in the Western Arkansas, Southwestern Missouri, Eastern Oklahoma area with little interaction due to the disorganized nature of upper-level flow and poorly supported surface lifting to support super-cell development.  However, as this progresses east surface winds will become more favorable for super-cell development helping to increase the chances of significant severe weather early Wednesday afternoon and evening as moisture becomes deeper and upper-level support increases providing greater lifting and further destabilizing the atmosphere in that area. 

            Residents of the Southern and Eastern Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee areas should monitor their local forecasts and be ready to take quick action if a severe thunderstorm warning or tornado warning is issued for your area.  Storm spotter groups and Office of Emergency Management personnel should monitor for watches and warnings through the afternoon on Wednesday February 18^th and be prepared for a need to coordinate storm spotting efforts due to the similar nature of this system to that of the February 12^th system over the Southern Plains. 

            At this time, data seems to point towards mainly a large hail and strong wind event.  However, should winds become stronger ahead of the initial Squall Line seen in the example in the link, it’s possible that discrete super-cells could develop ahead of the squall-line producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. 

            This is NOT within my district of observations but I may decide to monitor this area for assistance to those who need it.  My district is Tulsa, Oklahoma for USA Weather where I am the forecaster n charge. 

            More information can be found daily at the National Severe Storms Prediction Center located in Norman Oklahoma.  Each outlook will appear on the front page.  If you click the All Products link found on this message and at the SPC’s home page link you will see all of the available products that belong to the forecasting of severe weather. 

            You can also visit the National Weather Service home page and enter your zip code to get the latest forecasts on the web including watches, warnings and other important forecast information for your area. 

            In addition to this, USA Weather, a strong scientifically advanced group building the science of meteorology from the ground up, is in the process of development of a forecast center of its own offering both technical and plain english information for the storm spotter and the general public.  Visit this site also for the latest information on the upcoming severe weather event. 

            If you have a National Weather Service weather radio and you need the Specific Area Message Encoding or SAME number for your county, you can do the following two things. 

• Go to the National Weather Service SAME page for programming your Weather Radio by clicking here, or…
• Using a touch-tone phone within the United States (best), call 1-888-697-7263 (also TDD/TTY accessible), and follow the instructions. 

It’s usually best to get the SAME number for your county and the counties nearest you to provide you the earliest warning of approaching storms for your area.  Be sure and get all necessary information before completing your call and complete the additional following steps. 

• Insure that your NOAA weather radio has fresh batteries and have at least 2 sets spare to allow you to continue monitoring for severe weather in the event the power goes out or is temporarily interrupted. 
• Make sure that your NOAA weather radio is ON and is properly programmed as above to the closest tower to get the earliest and most reliable information from the National Weather Service.
• Have a disaster preparation kit on hand including flashlights, fresh water for you and your family including your pets, extra food and blankets. 
• A list of emergency contacts in the event immediate attention is necessary or you are separated from your immediate family members so that you can be properly re-united. 

Again, there is the potential for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms including the threats of large hail, strong straight line winds and tornadoes for the Mississippi Valley area including the states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee on Wednesday February 18^th, 2009 during the afternoon and evening.  Residents should monitor for updates regarding this situation to properly prepare for this event. 

If you have any questions please feel free to contact me using the information at the top of this message. 

Brian R Cross.

This document was given a PDF signature and re-produced into an Adobe PDF file for the purpose of preservation of forecasting.  A digital signature was applied to show authorship. 

Issued Monday, February 16, 2009, 8:20 PM CST.

Brian R Cross.

At this time there still remains a significant threat for severe weather in the following locations during the late afternoon and overnight on Wednesday February 18^th, 2009. 

• Alabama.
• Southeastern Arkansas.
• Northern Florida.
• Western and Central Georgia.
• Louisiana.
• Mississippi.
• Southern Tennessee. 

Though the primary threat continues to be large hail and damaging straight line winds there is still the threat of discrete super-cells in the above mentioned areas especially in Mississippi and Alabama late Wednesday afternoon and evening.  These will have the potential to become long-lived tornado producing storms with the chance that a large and destructive tornado could form from any that do isolate themselves away from the initial squall-line. 

During the late afternoon and overnight Wednesday I will be monitoring various radar sites to search out and locate any dangerous storms as part of a project for early warning and learning as a part of specific training.  Messages concerning this event will be issued if there are any super-cels that develop and move into highly populated areas.  There is the concern that this may impact several highly populated areas in Mississippi and Alabama during the late afternoon and evening with modest to high injury and death toll counts possible in areas that have little or no advance warning of the approaching or developing tornado produced from these systems. 

Residents in these areas should monitor for potential severe weather development by listening to NOAA National Weather Service radio and commercial television and radio for further severe weather updates during the day Wednesday February 18^th 2009. 

Brian R Cross.

Good evening,

At this hour tornado watches and warning remain in affect for a number of counties across the Deep South from Alabama though Georgia through the evening. 

The cities of:

• Mobile.
• Birmingham.
• Atlanta.

Are directly under the gun and residents in these areas should continue to monitor their forecasts for further watches, warnings and advisories. 

Already there have been several tornadoes sighted in these areas and large large hail along with heavy rainfall and strong straight line winds are to continue to be the threat along with tornadoes through the overnight period. 

Brian R Cross.

As of 9:50:21 PM CST Atlanta Georgia radar – KFFC – continued to indicate a squall-line making slow progress through much of Southeastern Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.  Severe thunderstorm watches have been issued in advance of this squall-line.  Though heating has subsided decreasing the threat of super-cell development in advance of the squall-line a brief tornado cannot be ruled out due to strong surface winds continuing to feed the advancing squall-line generating sheering in conjunction to a west-to-east upper flow below the upper-level low-pressure system responsible for this system. 

Hail of up to 1.5” in diameter, and winds up to 65 MPH are possible in any of these cells along the squall-line.  In addition to the severe weather threat flash flooding may also continue to be a threat due to multiple cells passing over the same area along the slow-moving line.  The individual cells are moving east at 45 MPH while the squall-line is advancing south at 5 MPH.

Residents should monitor for severe weather or tornado watches or warnings through 4 AM as this line continues to move south.  After 4 AM isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible but the system by that time will begin to become more disorganized slowly helping to diminish the overall severe weather threat.

Some instability is still possible in portions of Northern Florida and South Caroline again late Thursday afternoon as this system turns northeast and moves up the East Coast and eventually out to sea.  However again this is expected to be somewhat disorganized and so limited activity is expected.  Monitoring is recommended. 

If you have any questions please feel free to contact me privately. 

There is another chance for severe thunderstorms next week as an upper-level system passes through the Central and Southern Plains.  At this time it appears this will be mainly in the same areas as before in Arkansas.  However, it’s still early and I am carefully monitoring for path changes with this system. 

Brian R Cross.

Good evening,

Storm reports have been received for the preliminary damage assessment on the Wednesday February 18^th 2009 severe weather event that struck much of the Alabama, Georgia area.  Most of the damage occurred in Georgia. 

There were a total of 5 confirmed tornadoes in Georgia on February 18^th with most occurring during the late afternoon while super-cells were developing ahead of the squall-line associated with the upper-level storm and cold front. 

The information regarding these is in tabular form below.  You may write me for more information as this will be archived on a word document for further development when the final reports and assessments are in.  This is the 2^nd major severe weather outbreak in February to hit the United States – unusual but possible with our weather here in the United States in much of the Southern Plains, Southeastern and Gulf Coastal states.  What’s unusual is the intensity for which we’ve seen some of these tornadoes – most notably is still the Lone Grove event generating the EF-4 with winds estimated to have topped 185 MPH within these tornadoes. 

There is ANOTHER shot at severe weather – but not as significant as this one was.  There will be information on this as the system approaches and please be cautious concerning this statement as things can easily change due to our pattern at this point.  Monitor closely for changes as information arrives and is reviewed and later released by monitoring groups. 

Below is the storm report for Feb 18 2009.