There seems to be an inconsistency in the way that CB handles the static setting depending on whether you go one step at a time or do a continuous run all the...
The best argument you could use is that their single-point business case can have no validity unless they have historic information. On a slightly more...
Pat, I expect you've had a few requests for your paper -- can I add my own? I've read the Megaprojects and Risk book and got a lot out of it but would welcome...
John, The requests were numerous enough to warrant posting the paper on the cbug2 site under Files. I think it's the sixth one from the top, entitled "Late ...
Dear All, I've downloaded Pat's paper as many of you have too. In the course of making large aggregate models for drilling oilwells we always come up against...
The usual problem with aggregating a very large number of items (whether assets in a portfolio, tasks along a Gantt chart, or whatever) is failure to capture...
I found Pat's paper to be very enlightning. It's like a "Duh!" in Project Management. When we plan a project we generally estimate activity durations and...
How to find results that occur at the same time as other results... In recent weeks, with the help of Decisioneering, I've implemented a new bit of logic in...
Is it possible to run nested simulations in Crystall ball i.e. a simulation within a simulation? I was wondering whether anybody has any experience of this and...
Why nested? To simulate future decisions (options)? Would cascaded simulation (where the parameters for one event depend on the outcome of another) do the job?...
Crystal Ball does support what they call two D simulation to "Independently Analyze Uncertainty and Variability" Can you tell us a little more about your...
I am a new CB user and am a bit dense as to how to use the product. I have a set of measurements that vary with time; I have curvefit the observations to a...
need to do forecast some macroeconomic variables for an off-the-shelf product that we are building using crystal ball.can anyone please tell us how to do this...
Hi Mukherjee, There are a great number of stochastic models that one can use in time-series forecasting of macro-economic variables. All have their own ...
Hello, I am a new member of this group and I have the following question: I just received the following error message: "A calculation error has occurred in...
I have a spreadsheet in which I need to detemine what is the expected Net Present Value (NPV) at 10% hurdle rate. In such spreadsheet, variables such as: 1....
Hi there. I managed to register at the website: http://license.crystalball.com/register/ and I recieved a licence authorization code. But when I use it, I get ...
Choosing probability distributions is a confusing issue for many people. If you have data to which you can fit a curve, great - go ahead and do so. Most of...
I concur with everything Pat said. I'd like to add a few supplemental thoughts: 1. Before trying to identify a distribution, try to display the data in its...
Didn't get a response to my earlier question so I'll re-phrase and try again. I'm new to CB. I have a set of time-dependent measurements that I have curvefit...
Crystal Ball has a suite of distribution fitting models. You might consider using Winter's method, because it can account for cycles (like your sinusoidal...
Imagine I need to calculate the NPV (Net Present Value)at 12% for a real state investment. I have the following data: Mortgage Amount $120,000 Interest Rate...
The short answer is that there is no appropriate distribution to choose for mortgage amount or term, because those are decisions, not uncertainties. Both...
Hey folks, Use the "Correlate..." button in the "Define Assumptions" window for the variables that you want driven by the sine wave. Then you can put in the ...
I once tried to evaluate the NPV for a commercial real estate project, and I used the same uncertanties that is mentioned below (rents, occupancy rate, asset...
I sometimes try to compute NPV for different investment opportunities. Most of the times I use Monte Carlo-technique which produces an outcome- distribution...
I agree with you that coefficient of variation (ratio of standard deviation to mean), while often useful, is inadequate for the purpose you suggest. I doubt,...
One way to look at risk that we find very useful is to report the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the NPV outcome. We call these the P10, P50 and P90. Don...
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