need to do forecast some macroeconomic variables for an off-the-shelf product that we are building using crystal ball.can anyone please tell us how to do this...
Hi Mukherjee, There are a great number of stochastic models that one can use in time-series forecasting of macro-economic variables. All have their own ...
Hello, I am a new member of this group and I have the following question: I just received the following error message: "A calculation error has occurred in...
I have a spreadsheet in which I need to detemine what is the expected Net Present Value (NPV) at 10% hurdle rate. In such spreadsheet, variables such as: 1....
Hi there. I managed to register at the website: http://license.crystalball.com/register/ and I recieved a licence authorization code. But when I use it, I get ...
Choosing probability distributions is a confusing issue for many people. If you have data to which you can fit a curve, great - go ahead and do so. Most of...
I concur with everything Pat said. I'd like to add a few supplemental thoughts: 1. Before trying to identify a distribution, try to display the data in its...
Didn't get a response to my earlier question so I'll re-phrase and try again. I'm new to CB. I have a set of time-dependent measurements that I have curvefit...
Crystal Ball has a suite of distribution fitting models. You might consider using Winter's method, because it can account for cycles (like your sinusoidal...
Imagine I need to calculate the NPV (Net Present Value)at 12% for a real state investment. I have the following data: Mortgage Amount $120,000 Interest Rate...
The short answer is that there is no appropriate distribution to choose for mortgage amount or term, because those are decisions, not uncertainties. Both...
Hey folks, Use the "Correlate..." button in the "Define Assumptions" window for the variables that you want driven by the sine wave. Then you can put in the ...
I once tried to evaluate the NPV for a commercial real estate project, and I used the same uncertanties that is mentioned below (rents, occupancy rate, asset...
I sometimes try to compute NPV for different investment opportunities. Most of the times I use Monte Carlo-technique which produces an outcome- distribution...
I agree with you that coefficient of variation (ratio of standard deviation to mean), while often useful, is inadequate for the purpose you suggest. I doubt,...
One way to look at risk that we find very useful is to report the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the NPV outcome. We call these the P10, P50 and P90. Don...
It's hard to diagnose the problem you're describing without seeing your spreadsheet. What comes to mind as something you can try is to run the simulation...
I think I'm doing something stupid with the lognormal distribution. If I specify the distribution using the mean/stdev parameters, all works as I would expect....
I've experienced a problem with the new Version of Crystal Ball (Version 7) recently. In one of my models, that requires iteration each time the model ...
Hi! my model is situated in the insurance context. What I'm trying to do is to simulate future loss experiences and their impact on the company and the...
Bill, And I thought I was all alone!! I have experienced the same problem and the same result from Crystal Ball's (so-called) Help Desk. As a matter of fact,...
Hi Richie, unfortunately we don't have a answer for you message because we're starting to use CB, but we want to know how we can generate an aggregated...
Hi! we´re new on Crystal Ball, we have a difficult time trying to get inverse probability with CB, can help us? Regards Melanie from Caracas, Venezuela....
Hi Melanie, The term “inverse probability” has two distinct meanings in risk analysis modeling. Because I don’t know which of the two meanings you refer...
Hi, I'm student of math and I have to write a labor about "Multiplicative noise: genetics’ model". I have one question: does anybody know anything about it?...
Thank you!!!, it has been very helpful!!! ... cover ... probability ... value ... x for ... are ... most of ... to ... familiar ... distribution in ... ...
I have undertaken to do a university project looking at mining project returns. In short, a mining project can be thought of as having a revenue stream...
Having problems with message search?
Fill out this form to ensure your group is one of the first to be migrated to the new message search system.
