Hello, I get the following error message when I try to use OptQuest to run a simulation: "Problem retrieving forecasts after simulation. Check to make sure ...
One possibility that comes to mind is to ensure you do not have "stop on calculation errors" checked for the Monte Carlo simulation. In CB run preferences, on...
I have been using CB to simulate the probabilities associated with stage-gate product development projects to arrive at a risk-adjusted NPV. I use a triangular...
Hi, I'm a new CB user, and this is my first post to this group. I'm using Crystal Ball and OptQuest for a portfolio allocation problem. I've figured out how to...
If I understand the meaning of "phase 1 and 2 fail at the same time", you mean that there is a simulation game in which Bernoullis for phase 1 and phase 2 both...
Nick, Calculate the logarithm of the return, and optimize its expected value. This will give you the portfolio with the best expected geometric return. A...
The issue is that phase 1 and 2 cannot fail at the same time, i.e. in the scenario/trial was it phase 1 or phase 2 that failed? If you have a number of stage...
Nick, There is not a Geometric mean available as a selection in an OptQuest optimization, but I did try the GEOMEAN function (with my forecast as the target)...
I am a complete novice to crystal ball.But since I a software profession I have no difficulty in navigating through the tool and its usage.BUt I do have a poor...
Is there a way to install Crystal Ball so everyone who logs onto the computer can use it? I've installed in one use profile but when another user logs on it...
Debbie, The problem you are encountering is a license feature that will not allow multiple users on the same PC to access Crystal Ball. There is a solution to...
Hi everyone, There are three distribution fitting methods available in Crystal Ball version 7:A-D,Chi-square,K-S. However, Crystal Ball doesn't provide p- ...
Hi Yongping, A bit longer reply, which I hope will help you. First two general comments: * Many goodness-of-fit statistics have been developed but two...
*Dear Dr. Groenendaal,* ** *Thank you so much for your detailed answer. I really appreciate your time. You have a great day.* ** *Regards,* *Yongping* ... ...
Hi all, I could use some help sorting out a problem. When I begin to run a simulation, I get an error message that says I have a circular reference. When I...
Jami, Here is an excerpt from the Crystal ball user manual (Pg. 329) on Circular References and how to run them in Crystal Ball. Circular references Circular...
Hi there, I would like to capture in a forecast the result that generates my spreadsheet after running 100 trials. I thought that I could use the filter...
Hi Daniel, Your question is not totally clear, but I think a useful way for you to better understand your forecasts (for example the first 100 trials or the ...
Hi Huybert, I think you gave me a VERY GOOD IDEA!. In my model I have many forecast. I need to capture some of them at every trial while others, I just need to...
Huybert, In your reply to Daniel, you mentioned Bayesian Inference and it would be great if you could give me some guidance on how I could use CB to do...
Hi Marcelo, Just a quick intro to Bayesian inference before answering your question; Bayesian Inference is an extremely powerful statistical technique, based...
Hi all, i am working on a risk optimization project for a process where 10,000 transactions are processed in a day and i have aroung 20 risks...the occurence...
Sampling without replacement adds a lot of complexity, and, offhand, it's not clear that this truly represents your situation. If you can define a set of...
Just to add to Eric's comment - sampling without replacement is represented by the Hypergeometric process, instead of the Binomial process. In other words, the...
Just to add to Eric's comment - sampling without replacement is represented by the Hypergeometric process, instead of the Binomial process. In other words, the...
thanks eric and huybert, i agree to you that the risks would follow a binomial distribution. however, the problem is there are 10-15 diff. types of risks which...
Hi Vibdor, Thanks for clarifying your question - your question is about "adding a random number of random variables". First, the number of transaction is ...
I am using CB5.2 with EXCEL 2002. I would like to execute some macros while the similation is running with the option "EXCEL minimized" enabled. It appears to...
Hi, I just started using CB and I have CB.7. premium edition. Since I am brand new to this list I apologize in advance if the following question has already...
Nezih Altay, I assume you mean that you have thousands of time-series and you like to forecast demand for spare parts, is this correct? If my assumption is not...
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