This is similar to the other recent post about combining distributions though I think my question is slightly different. (1) I have an equation: 0.6(A) +...
CBUG Members, As some of you may know, Decisioneering is hosting the first ever Crystal Ball User Conference this June 17-18 in Denver, CO. We've had a...
Yes, this is the same phenomenon as reversion to the mean. Another way to think of it is to consider what would happen if A and B were perfectly correlated....
With all due respect, Eric, I believe the answer to the question does not involve means or correlations. B's mean, what ever it is, is not relevant to the...
Bob, Eric's explanation tends to jive with what I was thinking. Naturally this in itself doesn't make it correct, but rather one of many plausible(correct or...
Dear Friends, I have downloaded the CB tutorial, but I have problem running it. Once I start running it I receive an error message saying that the program was...
In the real numbers we studied in high school algebra, we say multiplication distributes over addition because x * (y + z) = x*y + x*z. When we move from real...
One of the reasons I enjoy CBUG email is because it makes me think (1st paragraph) and it humbles me (2nd paragraph). I never read a CBUG email that doesn't...
Delighted that you now agree the correct answer is the non-distributive nature of simulations and their resultant probability distributions, Eric. The...
Anybody had a problem with the frequency chart not pasting into excel? CB creats new workbook for the chart but the frequency chart doesn't appear. I would...
I have a custom distribution which consists of 20 states, each having it's own unique cost. Each state has an equal chance of being selected, but I want to...
Fatima, I'm not sure I fully understand your situation. It sounds like you have a discrete distribution with twenty spikes of equal probability (i.e., 5%...
Thanks for your reply... After re-reading my previous message, I realized that I wasn't completely clear. I do have 20 states, each having a unique cost but ...
Fatima, There's nothing like a little logic problem to get the mind going. I've created a file that shows how to solve your problem. I've uploaded it to our...
Bill - Thanks so much! This is definitely simpler than the method I came up with last night. I was making it a lot more complicated than it had to be. I...
Bill - One question came to mind... how do you know that the rand() function won't produce the same number twice? After looking at how far the decimal places...
hello all, hoping i might be able to find some help to better understand how monte carlo simulations plays into scenario analysis. let's say i want to run some...
jeru, You have a range of potential market shares which are, in reality, not discrete, but rather are a continuous range from 0% to 100%. If you look at...
Highly unlikely is an understatement. With 15 decimal places the probability of duplication in 10 independent random numbers is... if I remember my stats...
jeru, Good. No, there is a single mean between 0% and 15%. The 5,10 and 15% values have critical points associated with them statistically. Frank Feuquay ...
Hi Frank, So would i simply adjust the std dev to fit the 0-15 range for my lognormal dist? then, how would i tie the prob of 10%, let's say, to the...
jeru, You must design a distribution curve that closely fits the cumulative probabilities that you associate with the 5, 10 and 15% values. What are the...
Hi Frank, the probabilities would be 15% for the 5% share, 80% for the 10% share, and 5% for the 15% share. Do you mean use the custom distribution function?...
jeru, Since the market share probabilities are subjective. I would use a triangular distribution with a lower bound of 3.84615, an upper bound of 15.3333, and...
I don't recall seeing a reply to your query yet. I apologize if I'm late responding. Nevertheless, one option is to create the chart in Excel and use...
Yes, In the Define Assumption window, in the cells for bounding i.e. default will say "infinity", write in an equation referring to the cell with the value you...
Hello, I have just installed CB2000. As a newby, can anyone advise if, and how, it might be possible to simulate the toss of coins or dice using Crystall Ball?...
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