All, Rachael asked for her post to be amended. Here is her original post with the amended section as noted. (BH) I am a new user of Crystal Ball and a graduate...
do monte-carlo simulations replace the need for a decision tree when determining different scenarios or do they work more hand in hand? the current process i...
Technically, decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation address different types of problems. the former seek an optimal path and ite expected value when faced...
If you have a decision to make now, with no future decisions, both decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation can be used to calculate the expected payoff under...
Hi James, I'd appreciate any materials/readings you might have on this topic if it's not too much trouble. Thanks again. ... ite ... though ... results ... ...
Jeru and All, Jim Murtha has written a number of very good articles that the folks at Decisioneering keep on their website. The articles include discussions of...
I reviewed the artciles Bill has mentoned...opening the article on Bayes Theorem fails due to "the file being damaged". I rebooted my PC & tried again...no...
I am running a an oil fied model that calculates incremental economics for new wells. However all of the uncertainties which are facilities constraints impact...
Please would you upload your document. I'm very interested. Regards, Hemir "jamesamurtha" <jamesamurtha@...> 06/18/04 05:39 PM Please respond to cbug2 ...
Russell and Hamir, Hemir, The Decision Tree article and several others are downloadable from the CB site as I mentioned in an earlier post. The Bayes article...
Rachael, I'm not sure I fully understand your situation, but what you're describing sounds an awful lot like bootstrapping - i.e., running a large number of...
CBUGers, The 2004 Crystal Ball User Conference was a great success, with over 140 participants, 28 talks, and five workshops. We also had a special guest...
would someone provide insight into some good spreadsheet management practices? My analytics group produces differenct spreadsheets for various scenarios and...
I am using the Tornado Chart to test sensitivity by adding all precedents for a selected cell. My problem is that the window which displays the precedents is...
Does anyone know how to generate the report in CB Predictor thru a VB call? Infact none of the window options in Predictor is listed in the developer kit as it...
I'm using CB for risk management/assessment with regard to raw material prices. I'll simplify an example: I have a simulated CB price forecast distribution for...
I assume that you know how to define the correlations through the regular define assumptions window, and that what you are trying to do is extract the values...
Hello, I am new to CB/2000. I have a simulation which forecasts profit for, say 10 items sold. I have 10 days to sell them and assumptions for sale for any...
hello, i was wondering if anyone had used the real options toolkit to figure out a problem to a dual asset (correlated) rainbow option? if so, i am hoping...
Someone can correct me if I go wrong here (I'm a bit rusty), but my replies would be: 1) Yes, I think so. I believe the investment cost is the amount ...
Jor2kv, If I understand your question, one option might be to extend the selling period to some number where there would be a very high likelihood of selling...
Thank you Pat. For question 2. Using the RO toolkit, I don't think there's any way to input strike prices for individual assets. Thinking through this again...
I'm not sure I understand your problem well enough. Which module in the ROAT are you using? - Pat ... From: jeru546 [mailto:jeru546@...] Sent: Tuesday,...
I am attempting to simulate movement between different groups of a population. In this case, there are 4 groups, divided into fraction's of 100%. For example,...
You can set up a table with population groups across the top, and time increments down the side, define the assumptions as the amount of flow between each pair...
mhgandhi01, One option would be to specify distributions for the population size of each group (rather than percentage) and subsequently compute the percentage...
Another option is to do the following: Define CB assumptions for the 4 fractions with 0 and 100% as the lower and upper bounds Sum the 4 cells containing the...
I have one more idea for you. The Dirichlet distribution is related to the multivariate equivalent of a beta distribution. When I have one proportion or two...
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