Hi all! I am currently trying to define assumptions for my spreadsheet in VBA. The problem I face is that I obviously can't use the macros since Excel doesn't...
Hi Jamie, thank you for your help. Unfortunately, I have already tried it. Somehow I can't establish the reference to the crystal ball module. It is not...
A quick way to set a reference to CB is to do the following: 1) Mark the CB in the Add-Ins 2) Goto the VBA Editor 3) Select the Project Explorer 4) You should...
Hi, my name is Rurik Magos, I'm trying to forecast interest rates and other economic variables using CB Predictor. But I'm getting very "sine-like" projected...
Sorry to bother you with whatprobably is a simple question, but here goes. I am building a series of triangular distributions. The spread sheet has columns...
Yes there is. That answers your question, but I bet you were hoping for a bit more info. Create the first distribution. Make sure you have simple values in ...
Howdy, I am studying Overtime hours for Distribution Centers, and am looking at the effect of several variables, several of which look to have cyclical...
Hello to everyone from Slovenia. My name is Rado and I am looking for general business risk assessment contacts. EU/Slovenian legislation will require general...
I sometimes find it unavoidable to "guess" especially in the early days of a project proposal and I have to use a triangle even a skewed one for things like...
Stephen I am fairly new to CB after having used @Risk for ages, but I think they do pretty much an identical job. So far, I have found nothing but frustration...
The model I originally described generates some fairly interesting period-to-period jumps (I usually work in years as shorter term fluctuations are rarely of...
Hi CBers, I just visited CB website to search tips re. binominal distribution and what I found was a bit confusing. In CB tips #13 Misuse of Binomial...
Binomial is a discrete distribution, which means that it can only return an integer (0, 1, 2, ...). In the second tip, you can use a Binomial to get a 0 or 1,...
Without mean reversion, just using the period to period percentage change, the range gets magnified very quickly. For instance, looking at 2nd month NYH mogas,...
Stephen I work in either years or quarters (mostly years). I am struggling with your last suggestion of dividing the price into two parts. The main problem is...
Hi, I am working on analyzing the sensitivity of criterion weights on multicriteria decision making outcomes. What I would like do is perform a Monte Carlo...
I'm trying to get some reference paper that specifically refers to the inappropriateness of adding P50's together when dealing with lognormal or other skewed...
One robust idea is to generate some preliminary weights, and then normalize them (i.e., divide each weight by the sum of the weights) to get the weights you...
I'm a newcomer to the group - long experience forecasting prices for oil and gas and trying to convince users to move to a more probabilistic view of the...
Models are only as good as the underlying assumptions used to build them. If everybody uses the same assumptions and the same models, they'll project the same...
The problem is that all models do involve qualitative judgement: there is simply no objective way to derive the parameters for--for example--the future price...
This may not be what you need, but it addresses the problem directly. Build a simple CB model containing several skewed distributions (lognormal etc.). Use CB...
Absolutely agree with both of you - unfortunately, however, attempting to convince a group of math-centric managers that an equation won't necessarily identify...
Hi Folks, There is a headline article in the Wall Street Journal today titled, "For Math Whizzes, The Election Means A Quadrillion Options." People are using...
Sounds like you are referring to asymmetric information and arbitrage. I guess not all models have the same information. Once that becomes clear then all...
I am trying to model our annual gas price setting process - in May every year, the price for the next 12 months is set according to average price in May. The...
I don't believe that mean-reversion is appropriate in current market conditions for Natural Gas futures. There are several reasons for this, fundamental and...
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