33P in outburst - light curve analysis

I analysed the light curve of 33P/Daniel which is now in outburt.

This comet in the last two apparitions (2000 and 2008) experienced
outbursts and became 2 to 3 magnitude brighter. In 2000 outburst
happened 270 days after perihelion, and in 2008/2009 it happened 192
days after perihelion.

light curve in 2000:
http://s56.radikal.ru/i153/0902/47/96976545319a.png

light curve in 2008/09:
http://s55.radikal.ru/i148/0902/d7/dc4cd495bcc7.png

combined light curve of the last two apparitions:
http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/3266/33plc3il0.png



I also analysed comet's behavior in historical apparitions and also
plotted the light curves.


Close approaches to Jupiter:

0.65 AU from Jupiter on 1912 February 5
increased perihelion distance from 1.38 AU to 1.53 AU

0.53 AU from Jupiter on 1959 July 23
increased perihelion distance from 1.46 AU to 1.66 AU

0.25 AU from Jupiter on 1995 February 16
increased perihelion distance from 1.65 AU to 2.16 AU



light curve in 1909:
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/7016/33p1909si9.png

light curve in 1937:
http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/263/33p1937bo7.png

light curve in 1943:
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/1167/33p1943vs7.png

light curve in 1950:
http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/9405/33p1950fc7.png


combined light curve 1937-1950:
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/2417/33plc1we8.png

combined light curve 1978-1992:
http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/296/33plc2nf0.png



Sources:

1. MPECs
2. IAUCs
3. CfA Recent Comet Magnitude Estimates (archive pages)
4. S. K. Vsekhsvyatsky "Physical Characteristics of Comets"
(Moscow, 1958)
5. S. K. Vsekhsvyatsky "Physical Characteristics of Comets:
1960-1965" (Moscow, 1967)
6. Cometography.com


All light curves are plotted in Seiichi Yoshida's software
"Comet for Windows" http://www.aerith.net/project/comet.html


Best regards,
Dimitry Chestnov
(Moscow, Russia)