FYI,

"Future of Commercial Spaceflight Uncertain, But Promising"
Space.com
http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20081231/sc_space/futureofcommercialspac
eflightuncertainbutpromising

: This year closed with a volley of seemingly hopeful signs for
: what's termed by some as "NewSpace" - an entrepreneurial
: spaceflight trajectory markedly different than NASA and its cabal
: of mainstream aerospace contractors.

: For example:

: Item: The huge WhiteKnightTwo mothership successfully lifts off
: into aerodynamic adulation at the Mojave Air and Space Port, that
: it can serve as a carrier plane to support two-pilot, six passenger
: suborbital SpaceShipTwo tourist operations for spaceliner operator,
: Virgin Galactic.

: Item: NASA awarded two fixed-price "indefinite delivery, indefinite
: quantity contracts" collectively valuable at about $3.5 billion
: - one to Orbital Sciences Corp. of Dulles, Va., and one to Space
: Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) of Hawthorne, Calif. - for
: commercial cargo resupply services to the International Space
: Station.

: Item: XCOR Aerospace of Mojave, Calif. successfully completed its
: first test fire of the rocket engine designed to power its two-seat
: Lynx suborbital vehicle to the edge of space. Meanwhile, Jules Klar
: of RocketShip Tours has announced that his company is selling rides
: to the edge of space on Lynx for $95,000 per flight.

: Item: Bigelow Aerospace of North Las Vegas continued to monitor
: though the year its Genesis 1 and Genesis 2 modules placed into
: orbit July 2006 and June 2007. Both spacecraft remain in excellent
: shape, with the private firm pushing forward on larger expandable
: structures that can become habitable havens in Earth orbit.

: It's the economy $tupid

: But one big issue looms for NewSpace next year, said Jeff Foust, an
: aerospace analyst, journalist and publisher, as well as editor and
: publisher of the respected website, The Space Review. And that
: topic of trepidation is the state of the economy.

: "This is going to affect companies in the industry in two ways.
: One, it's going to make it that much more difficult for companies
: to raise the money needed to develop their vehicles," Foust told
: SPACE.com.

: "It won't directly affect companies that are already self-funded or
: otherwise fully-funded - like Virgin Galactic, SpaceX, Armadillo
: Aerospace, Bigelow Aerospace, etc. - but those companies trying to
: raise tens of millions of dollars or more to carry out their
: business plans will find that steep path to funding has become
: even steeper.

: Foust also noted another impact tied to the rocky economy - a
: potential reduction in customer demand, particularly in space
: tourism. A whiplash from the continuation of a deep recession in
: 2009, he said, may well be people reconsidering tossing out
: $95,000 to $200,000 or more for suborbital jaunts, or putting the
: trip off a few years - to a time when, presumably, the economy
: recovers.

: X factor

: In his crystal ball gazing, Foust said he expects that the coming
: year will be a year more of incremental advances rather than
: breakthroughs in the NewSpace field.

: "In short, I think commercial space will continue to have strong
: long-term prospects, but that 2009 will present its share of
: challenges for the industry to overcome in order to realize those
: prospects," Foust said.

: Another "X factor" for commercial space in 2009 that Foust flagged
: is the incoming Obama administration.

: "During the general election, the Obama campaign made some positive
: statements about the importance of commercial space, especially in
: the campaign's space policy issued in August. However, we'll have
: to wait and see how exactly they will implement that...and what
: priority commercial space issues will get among other pressing
: space policy issues, not to mention overall policy," Foust
: observed.

: Expect the unexpected

: Taking a longing look at the economic uncertainty of the times is
: David Livingston, host of The Space Show - a home for a bubbling
: cauldron of space experts that fill the sound waves with talk radio
: and a streaming program of both solution and worry.

: "Concerning my civil and private space expectations for 2009, about
: all I can say at this time is to expect the unexpected," Livingston
: said. "With the economy and markets in flux, with Congress doing
: its best to spread fear, and with tight money, I suspect capital
: acquisition efforts on the parts of some private companies may find
: the going to be tough," he said.

: Livingston said that he is expecting the unexpected for most - if
: not all of 2009.

: "Too much is unknown or uncertain at this time to be sure of
: anything. By the way, markets and money hate uncertainty. We need
: to get through this mess, start our recovery, or at least stop with
: the fear propagation by members of Congress and the press...and we
: need to see or at least reliably anticipate stability returning to
: the financial and economic world," Livingston concluded.

: Big plans

: An ongoing success story in private space matters is that of John
: Carmack, chief rocketeer of his Armadillo Aerospace team in
: Rockwall, Texas. Last October, Armadillo bagged $350,000 in prize
: money for winning Level One of the Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander
: Challenge in Las Cruces, New Mexico.

: In assessing 2009, a confident Carmack sees winning Level Two of
: the lunar lander challenge.

: Furthermore, "we are planning on doing 'boosted hops' up to around
: a mile or so at our home base airfield once the new [Federal
: Aviation Administration] amateur rocket regulations go into effect
: in February," Carmack added. "We will be testing higher speeds
: going up and down, and eventually trying an engine relight after a
: short descent under drogue [parachute]."

: In other Armadillo rocket milestones, Carmack said that they should
: be doing exhibition races with multiple Rocket Racers. Also, he
: advised that a skydiver will ride and jump off from one of the
: company's rockets.

: "I hope to be flying at [New Mexico's] Spaceport America later next
: year, which will give us supersonic flights and get close to
: space...but that is contingent on a few other factors," Carmack
: told SPACE.com.

: Time for patience

: Jeff Greason is head of XCOR Aerospace in Mojave, California - a
: leading private entrepreneurial space group with an eye on the
: suborbital space market. In putting a business-eye on the coming
: year, he signals a time for patience.

: "During 2009, entrepreneurial space companies will continue working
: on their propulsion systems, airframes, and all the other
: components necessary for successful access to space," Greason
: explained. "So we will see engine tests, other subsystem tests, and
: progress on vehicle construction and system integration."

: But given all that activity, Greason added: "We're unlikely to see
: any new systems enter service in 2009. People should not find this
: disappointing. This is the hard work that is necessary to make
: affordable spaceflight a reality, and it will lead to first flights
: in 2010."

: Spotlighting that next year will likely become the "tipping" point
: in the emerging personal space flight industry is Stuart Witt,
: general manager of Mojave Air and Space Port in California.

: Witt's end of the year message is straightforward: The industry has
: an opportunity to expand to many locations across the nation if
: operators are successful at Mojave.

: "The business of being first in new and exciting endeavors has its
: risks, but thank goodness we have people willing to be creative and
: take the personal and business risks which have such a positive
: effect on so many," Witt feels.

: Witt contends that what's needed is creativity, innovation and a
: long reach...all which has been missing from national space policy
: for decades.

: "As America focuses on bailing out everyone who is on the brink of
: failure, thank God we have places where failure is still an option
: in order for innovation to be realized," Witt believes. "When you
: strip away a country's or individual's ability to fail you take
: away their right to succeed. Let the natural forces of
: accountability work for all."

Mark Reiff