FYI,

"5 Years After SpaceShipOne: Commercial Spaceflight Ready for 'Go'"
Space.com
http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20091003/sc_space/5yearsafterspaceshiponecommercia\
lspaceflightreadyforgo

: It has been five years since SpaceShipOne screamed its way into the
: history books as the first privately built and financed manned
: craft to reach space. While that roar from the ship's rocket engine
: has long since dissipated, the aftershocks from its suborbital
: space shots are still being felt.

: Roaring upward over the Mojave, Calif., desert on repeat flights,
: pilots Mike Melvill and Brian Binnie individually controlled the
: craft to the suborbital heights - and within the span of a 14-day
: period. In doing so, on Oct. 4, 2004, the $10 million Ansari
: X Prize was won - and the vision of non-governmental spaceflight
: became sharply focused.

: Designed by Mojave-based Burt Rutan - the lead out-of-the-box
: thinker of Scaled Composites and his team - and financed by
: Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, the barrier-breaking vehicle
: earned its stripes.

: Its victory was hailed by the banner: "SpaceShipOne, Government
: Zero."

: Today, at the Mojave Air and Space Port all appears in readiness
: for the combined test flights of WhiteKnightTwo and the sleek
: two-pilot, six-person SpaceShipTwo - the world's first passenger-
: carrying suborbital spaceliner. This outing is backed by British
: entrepreneur, Sir Richard Branson and his Virgin Galactic company.
: Like SpaceShipOne, the new SpaceShipTwo is designed to be carried
: to a high altitude by a mothership aircraft where it can launch on
: suborbital trips.

: Above the fold

: Burt Rutan reflects on the wake left by the pioneering SpaceShipOne
: flights, the winning of the Ansari X Prize, and a glimpse at the
: road ahead.

: "Our big milestone of 2004 occurred on June 21, the date of the
: first non-government manned spaceflight. The X Prize flights were
: an opportunity for our sponsor and our employees to get a
: 'well-done bonus' and to show that our June accomplishment was not
: a lucky fluke...that it really is feasible for low-cost space
: access to be offered to the public," Rutan explained.

: Rutan proudly spotlights a "Google Trends" search that also shows
: the importance of their first manned spaceflight. The Newsworthy
: Record , that is the number of world newspapers that carried the
: story above the fold, showed that the June 21st story was the
: second largest news event of 2004 - the first being the capture of
: Saddam Hussein. Three of the five manned space flights of 2004 were
: flown from Mojave, California.

: "SpaceShipOne was my 39th manned aircraft type to be flight tested
: and was clearly the most significant," Rutan said. "It was my last
: design...an opportunity to hand over the reins to the very talented
: young designers at Scaled."

: Rutan said that he has continued to design new concepts as Chief
: Technology Officer and Chairman Emeritus of Scaled Composites.

: "I may design a future aircraft or two, but because of the
: rewarding experience of SpaceShipOne for all my employees, I
: personally feel that my aircraft development career is complete,"
: Rutan told SPACE.com.

: Historic, game changing

: A witness to all three of the SpaceShipOne flights was Will
: Whitehorn, President of Virgin Galactic. "Those breathtaking
: X Prize flights were worthy of every cliche in the book...historic,
: game changing...all in all, the right stuff!"

: When SpaceShipOne pilot Brian Binnie shot skyward on the second of
: back-to-back suborbital treks to snag the X Prize purse, Whitehorn
: considered that historic day as "one which will change the face of
: the space industry forever."

: And as the wispy contrail from that prize-winning run turned
: invisible, there were a host of judgments remaining, Whitehorn told
: SPACE.com. "Big decisions had to follow...such as whether to
: rebuild SpaceShipOne as a commercial vehicle, or take the braver
: and more costly decision to build a truly capable integrated space
: launch system," he said.

: Fast forward to the present: The WhiteKnightTwo/SpaceShipTwo is
: viewed as that space launch system. The combo of flight hardware
: not only gives space tourists what they wanted, but also supports
: human-in-the-loop science and launching satellites as well,
: Whitehorn said.

: "It is now five years on and where are we? Flying the launch
: vehicle...firing the rocket motor...on the cusp of unveiling the
: finished SpaceShipTwo and of course watching a runway unfold in the
: New Mexico desert," Whitehorn added, pointing to the development of
: Spaceport America – home base for Virgin Galactic commercial
: operations.

: "Hundreds of Virgin Galactic, Scaled and Spaceport America people
: are working towards a true industrial revolution in space,"
: Whitehorn concluded. "I, for one, can't wait, but will never forget
: the fact that the Ansari X prize was a real catalyst for these
: events."

: Quiet before the storm

: "Right now is the quiet before the storm," said Rick Tumlinson, a
: leader in the NewSpace movement and co-founder of the Space
: Frontier Foundation. He points to a trio of past events that has
: brought about the emerging space squall.

: "The winning of the X Prize, the takeover of the Mir space station
: by private investors and the flight of Dennis Tito to the space
: station were the three shots that convinced investors that there
: was a market for commercial human spaceflight, a way to capitalize
: on it in the near term...and people willing to put money into the
: idea," Tumlinson said.

: Comparing it to the moment before the flag is dropped on a race
: track, "the teams are building their cars and rolling them out to
: the starting line," Tumlinson said.

: The Tumlinson timeline: Within the next few months the first
: companies will begin flights and within two years the first paying
: customers will be flying. Within three years the first commercial
: facilities will be overhead and within five years you will be able
: to fly commercially to orbit on a private spaceship.

: "NewSpace has been through some major shakeouts, with only a few of
: the many firms surviving that were around when the X Prize was won.
: In fact, Scaled Composites may be the only one of the registered
: competitors that did survive," Tumlinson said.

: "It is important to maintain perspective. Some would have us
: believe that the X Prize all by itself signaled the NewSpace
: revolution. It did not," he added. "There were a lot of people
: working on a lot of important projects for at least a decade before
: it was won, and by itself it would not have been anything more than
: a news blip."

: Tumlinson said that beyond Scaled/Virgin Galactic, none of the
: other surviving NewSpace firms that really have a chance to succeed
: competed for the X Prize at all. "XCOR and Armadillo Aerospace
: refused to participate, and the billionaire guys like Bezos,
: Bigelow and Musk are doing their own thing completely," he added.

: New set of investors

: Peter Diamandis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the
: X Prize Foundation has a different take on the spark stemming from
: the X Prize.

: "Since the Ansari X Prize was won in 2004, over $1 billion in
: capital has been invested into the personal spaceflight industry,"
: Diamandis said. "Of the 26 teams from seven nations that competed,
: I would guess that about a quarter of them remain viable and are
: pushing toward commercial operations."

: In looking back over the past five years, Diamandis said that one
: of the most important results of the Ansari X Prize involves
: credentialing this slice of the industry as real, as well as
: stimulating this market sector.

: "People now know and believe that they can buy a private ticket to
: space without having to be a government employee," Diamandis noted.
: "Other benefits include helping to clarify the regulatory regime
: and bringing a new set of investors and sponsors to fund the
: entrepreneurs who have dedicated their lives to this industry
: sector."

: Claims, rhetoric, and drama

: While SpaceShipOne's snaring of the X Prize showcased the possible,
: as well as what was attainable, hubris shouldn't be the propellant
: for pushing forward.

: That cautionary view is espoused by David Livingston, the host of
: "The Space Show" - a popular talk radio and streaming Internet
: program. On one hand, SpaceShipOne's victory started opening a
: tightly closed door for investment which is opening even wider
: today.

: "That said, accessing space is not easy or dirt cheap - be it
: suborbital, orbital, or actually going someplace rather than just
: orbiting Earth," Livingston said. "While I believe the
: entrepreneurs and businessmen and women know how to kick the door
: wide open and establish needed space economic infrastructure to
: develop this new industry, I have my doubts about policy makers,
: our elected officials, and those motivated to hold on to old
: agendas that won't work for the new space economy."

: Livingston sees an increase in the claims and rhetoric by
: enthusiasts, dreamers, advocates, and those wanting to be very much
: a part of a truly space-faring world.

: "The risk here is that as the extremes in the claims, rhetoric, and
: drama get exposed to the light of the day as being nothing more
: than what they are, they fuel the arguments and unenlightened ways
: of those in power - or in influential positions - and they add to
: the risks of sidetracking or slowing down commercial space
: development," Livingston asserted.

: The bottom line is that real space development is essential for our
: future, Livingston said. "Let's keep it real so we can achieve our
: goals and improve our world."

Mark Reiff