Posted by E.D.G.   November 6, 2009
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html

        After spending a tremendous amount of time and energy on this during the
past year, the Data.html Web page has now been updated with a new format and new
data.  There is still quite a bit of work to be done to get things working
better.  But I am hoping that the new format will make it possible to circulate
important earthquake forecasting and research data to researchers etc. around
the world in an understandable manner.

        The first chart that can be seen on the Web page contains the most
important forecasting data.  Basically, if data line peaks are appearing at
different longitudes on the upper lines of that chart it means that there might
be some significant seismic activity approaching for a fault zone system
somewhere along that longitude line.

        Latitude data are also available.  But it would be difficult or
impossible to display that type of information with the two dimensional format
of the charts.

        Looking at the data that were stored there on November 5, 2009 it can be
seen from the November 1 data line that there were peaks appearing around 121 E.
And in fact Taiwan reportedly just had the most powerful earthquake in years at
121 E.

        Going back further in time, there were chart line peaks that were
appearing around 100 E.  And on September 30, 2009 at around 100 E there was a
destructive earthquake in the Indonesia area that reportedly claimed hundreds of
lives.

        At the moment there are strong line peaks on the chart around 122 W.  I
presently don't know what that means.  It could be that the program is
amplifying ordinary, low intensity U.S. West Coast seismic activity signals
because it does not have any stronger signals pointing elsewhere to work with. 
EM Signal activity has been relatively quiet since all of that recent strong
Samoa and Indonesia area earthquake activity ended.  For a while there, large
numbers of strong EM Signals were being detected almost on a daily basis.

        As these data are studied, that type of thing should become more
understandable.  I myself am looking at most of those data for the first time. 
My computer programs were not advanced enough to easily generate these types of
data in the past.

Note:  That Web page might have already been updated with new data by the time
some people have a chance to read this report.

FORECASTING PROGRAM ACCURACY

        One of the most difficult parts of doing earthquake forecasting work is
telling if some method is actually working.  People can say that they can detect
this or that percentage of earthquakes etc.  But it is still difficult to
evaluate someone's success rate.

        Data now available on both that Data.html Web page and on a Year Charts
Web page at the same site make it easy to tell if this particular approach to
forecasting is working.  The Year Charts contain data related to EM Signals that
were detected going back to the beginning of 2001.  To see if the program was
able to detect this or that earthquake, site visitors can use the viewers on the
Data.html Web page to compare the Year Chart data for different years with
earthquake data available at the site.  Of they can simply examine the Year
Charts and see if there were line peaks at the longitude of the earthquake in
question on the charts before the earthquake occurred.

        Some of the most startling data that I myself have seen so far with the
charts pertain to the data line peaks present around 96 E before the
catastrophic 2004 Indonesia area earthquake at that longitude that generated a
tsunami (tidal wave) that reportedly claimed a quarter of a million lives.  The
Year Chart data indicate that EM Signals that could have been pointing to the
approach of that earthquake might have been generated for a good part of a year
before it occurred.

        The Year Chart data for 2003 also show that EM Signals might have also
been pointing to the approach of both of the destructive late December, 2003
earthquakes in the San Francisco, CA area and Bam, Iran.

        So, site visitors can select an earthquake and see if there are line
peaks on one of the Year Charts at the location where it occurred.

        There are other ways to process the data so that the approach of other
earthquakes can be detected.  Several are discussed at that Web site.  But that
line chart peak check is the easiest way at the moment.

        Now that those data are available I am going to try to keep that Web page
updated with the latest information.  It does take a lot of time.  And I have to
do the work during what free time I can find.  But as the computer programs that
generate the data get more advanced the effort is getting easier.

        Also now that the data are available I am planning to start discussing
them on one of the EarthWaves bulletin boards.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html

        That bulletin board has the best format that I have seen so far for this
type of discussion.

        Efforts are also underway to help get the International Society For
Earthquake Precursors Web site a little better organized with detailed lists of
earthquake precursors that people can watch for and more detailed discussions of
various earthquake forecasting methods.  http://www.isfep.com

        I am not a part of that group myself.  But I talk with some of those
people on a regular basis.  And they are interested in these types of effort and
are willing to help when they can.

Regards to all,

E.D.G.


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Full article at:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20091104/sc_livescience/recentmidwestquakesc\
alledaftershocksfrom1800s

Rachael Rettner
Staff Writer
LiveScience.com rachael Rettner
staff Writer
livescience.com - Wed Nov 4, 1:17 pm ET
The small earthquakes that sporadically rattle the central United States may
actually be aftershocks from a few extremely large quakes that occurred in the
region almost 200 years ago, according to a new study


The New Madrid Earthquakes, which struck between December 1811 and February
1812, are some of the strongest seismic events ever to occur in the contiguous
United States in recorded history. The largest quake is estimated to have been
8.0 in magnitude and was powerful enough to temporarily make the Mississippi
River flow backwards. The heart of the seismic activity was near the town of New
Madrid, Missouri, close to the Kentucky and Tennessee borders...


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Posted by E.D.G.   October 24, 2009

Hi Barb and all,

A powerful earthquake has just occurred in the Indonesia area.

2009/10/24 14:40:45  -6.161 130.346  138.5 7.0  Banda Sea
NEIS Data

From news reports it sounds like quite a few people got upset.  However, so far
it does not sound like there were any casualties or even any damage.

As I said in the last posting, no strong EM Signals have been detected lately. 
However, an unusually large number of low intensity EM Signals were detected
during the past week or so.  And as I stated to people that I talk with by
E-mail, that is often a sign of an approaching Indonesia area earthquake.  I was
not expecting anything that powerful.  But at least it was not an 8.3 magnitude
earthquake, perhaps something like 50 times as powerful as a 7.0

The importance of those low intensity EM Signals is going to have to be
reevaluated.  I have to say that I am surprised that no high intensity signals
were detected during the past week or so.

On another note, the Year Charts Web page is being updated with quite a bit of
additional information.  The new version might be finished by Monday.

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Year_Charts.html

If the year 2004 chart presently available through that Web page is examined, it
can be seen that there were strong time window line peaks present in the 96 E
longitude area for months before the catastrophic December 26, 2004 earthquake
in the Indonesia area that occurred at 96 E.  The tsunami associated with that
earthquake reportedly claimed something like a quarter of a million lives.  The
appearance of those chart line peaks at that longitude indicates to me that EM
Signals were being detected around that time that were likely pointing to the
approach of that earthquake.

Regards to all,

E.D.G.


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Posted by E.D.G.   October 21, 2009

Sometimes, these Web page links have the correct address.  But they simply do
not work.  This one should work.

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Year_Charts.html

Regards,

E.D.G.


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Posted by E.D.G.   October 21, 2009

Hi Barb and all,

It is my very rough estimate that the EM Signals that I myself work with
probably point to the approach of at least two thirds of our highly significant
earthquakes.  I didn't have time to post the warnings to this bulletin board. 
But before the recent deadly earthquake activity in the Indonesia area I
circulated quite a few earthquake warnings and advisories by E-mail.

There are no recently detected strong EM Signals of mine pointing to the
approach of especially strong seismic activity along the Pacific Rim or anywhere
else.  However, that situation can change in just a day.  And it has in the
past.

Also, with some earthquakes, especially South American ones, strong EM Signals
can be detected.  And then things get relatively quiet for several weeks or even
as long as a month.  So, signals pointing to that proposed Pacific Rim activity
might have been detected a month or two ago.  However, I would not expect to see
that happen if an 8+ magnitude earthquake is going to occur.  I would expect
that some strong signals would be generated right up until the time of the
earthquake.

If anything changes I will try to post another note stating that.

The following Web page is not finished yet.  And I am planning to circulate some
notes about it in the future.  But the charts going back to 2001 indicate which
past significant earthquakes could have been easily detected by my forecasting
procedure had it existed in its present form at the time the earthquake
occurred.

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Year_Charts.html

The data clearly show that the deadly December 22, 2003 earthquake in the San
Francisco area could probably have been easily forecast.  And I was actually
circulating quite a few international warnings back then.  But at the time I did
not have a good way of determining locations for an expected earthquake.

If people have any difficulty understanding the information on that Web page I
would be interested in hearing from them.

These are personal opinions.

Regards to all,

E.D.G.


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

PASSING THIS ON FROM ANOTHER LIST I RECEIVE...


the way the Pacific Rim (Ring of Fire) has been quaking for days now.....
something has gotta give .......



For those who don't regularly follow George Ure's www.urbansurvival.com, this
was the top of today's report:



Urgent Update

Major Quake Warning Issued

With global tensions ready to build for 2-weeks from about October 25th on, one
of the possibilities we've been watching - thanks to the heads-up predictive
linguistics reports from www.halfpasthuman.com has been for something that will
arise out of the global population portion of modelspace and which will be
mainly economic in its impacts.  Lots of things come to mind, but the recent
increase in Pacific Plate earthquakes has been a particular worry, since a 8-or
higher earthquake could do serious damage around the Pacific Rim depending on
tsunami activities and such.  So it's with this in mind that I just got a 'jaw
dropper" from our Indonesia correspondent:

   "George,

   The BMG (Indonesian analogue to USGS) [http://www.bmg.go.id/depan.bmkg]  has
issued a rather specific warning for this coming Saturday, of a quake in the
8-8.5 range. Don't know how much stock I personally put in such a warning, but I
will load up on supplies and stay at ground level for the weekend.

   I guess we will all know the results come Monday...if the rest of the world
doesn't fall apart by then.

   Sampai jumpa,

Obviously we hope the warning is a false alarm, but when government
seismographers issue a report like this, I tend to pay attention.  Time to short
insurance stocks?


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Received from another list:



Samoa Island Region, 29 September 2009


At 10:48 AM Pacific Daylight Time on September 29, an earthquake with
preliminary magnitude 8.0 occurred in the Samoa Islands region.


Tsunami propagation map.
Please click on image to enlarge.


Please click on the following to view the mariagram

       Tide Station Observed Height
       Apia 0.7m/2.3Ft

       Pago Pago 1.57m/5.1Ft
       Penrhyn 0.07m/0.23Ft
       Tonga 0.14m/0.46Ft
       Rarotonga 0.47m/1.5Ft

       Location Expected Amplitude
       Above Sea Level Local Time
       Initial Arrival Universal Coordinated Time (UTC)
       Kahalui, HI 1m/3.3Ft --:-- --:--
       Kawaihae, HI 0.4m/0.13Ft --:-- --:--
       Haleiwa, HI 0.47m/1.54Ft --:-- --:--
       Nawiliwili, HI 0.15m/0.49Ft --:-- --:--
       San Diego, CA 15cm 21:20 PDT 04:20 UTC
       San Pedro, CA 30cm 21:15 PDT 04:15 UTC
       Port San Luis, CA 60cm 21:07 PDT 04:07 UTC
       San Francisco, CA 20cm 21:31 PDT 04:31 UTC
       Cresent City, CA 65cm 21:20 PDT 04:20 UTC
       Newport, OR 15cm 21:52 PDT 04:52 UTC
       Seaside, OR 25cm 22:05 PDT 05:05 UTC
       Toke Pt, WA 6cm --:-- --:--
       Neah Bay, WA 6cm 22:13 PDT 05:13 UTC
       Sitka, AK 16cm 21:15 ADT 05:15 UTC
       Yakutat, AK 6cm 21:39 ADT 05:39 UTC

Source:
http://origin-wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/previous.events/09-29-09-Samoa/09-29-09.html



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING PROGRAMS
Posted by E.D.G.    September 7, 2009

        After being out of service for several years while its software was being
upgraded, the normal forecasting part of the Etdprog.exe Perl - Gnuplot
languages earthquake forecasting computer program is now back running.

        During the past few years the research part of the program has been used
with efforts to determine when and where earthquakes might occur.  That part of
the program does work for some earthquakes.  But it is was really intended more
for research rather than actual forecasting.

This is the downloadable version of the research part of the program.

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Etdprog.html

        The normal forecasting part of the program is presently processing some
3000 electromagnetic pulse signals (EM Signals) that were detected going back to
the beginning of 2001.  The charts that are being generated will probably be
stored some time this week at the ISEP Web site.

http://www.isfep.com

They will be highly expanded versions of the following picture file:

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/images/Chart.jpg

        And they will show what might be expected from this computer program
using EM Signal data that I myself have been collecting.  If governments around
the world were to begin using the program to process "Ear Tone" type
electromagnetic pulse data, for example, collected from people in their
countries then I believe that it might enable them to predict a good percentage
of their significant earthquakes.

        In my opinion from just quickly looking at those charts as they are being
generated, the results can be rather startling.  For example, I believe that
they show that EM Signals were being generated before that catastrophic May 12,
2008 earthquake in the People's Republic of China.  And that means that the
earthquake might have been predicted.  It is unfortunate that the program's
software was being updated and it was not operational at that time.

        The program's map data can now be displayed with a continents outline
background, with a tectonic plates boundaries background, or with a background
showing both.

        Two other forecasting computer programs are also now running.  And they
and their source code will probably be stored as freeware downloads at the ISEP
Web site when efforts to prepare their Web pages documentation are completed. 
It would be difficult to say when those Web pages will be ready.

        The first program called Wave Chart draws charts that let people look
into the future and determine when there will be high probability times for
aftershocks to occur following powerful earthquakes.  And it provides
information on the forces that are associated with earthquake triggering and EM
Signal generation.

The types of data that the program generates can be seen on the following Web
page:

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/130.html

        In the past that program was available as an Excel spreadsheet program
and also as an experimental TrueBasic language program.  The new program was
developed as part of an effort by several people including myself using
FreeBasic.

        The second program that was also developed as part of a collaborative
effort is a FreeBasic version of the Ring Map program that is presently
available in a TrueBasic form.  I am planning to contact another researcher who
apparently developed some of the theories behind the program regarding copyright
matters before the new version is released as freeware.

        It lets the user enter information regarding a past earthquake.  And it
then draws a series of rings that show where some type of energy related to the
earthquake is supposed to be concentrating around the world.  The theory is that
earthquakes at those locations might then occur sooner than they would otherwise
because their fault zones were destabilized to some extent by that original
earthquake related energy.

        The program then allows the user to specify date and magnitude ranges for
earthquakes to display on that map as dots having different sizes and colors. 
People can then see which of the earthquakes if any fell within those high
energy areas.

That particular program is so fast and easy to use and understand that it is
actually a fun program to run.

        It is not known by me if the theories behind the program are valid. 
People will have to try using it and see what results they get.

ISEP WEB SITE

        Although I am not part of the group that is running that Web site I am
trying to work with those people to get the following resources developed at the
site:

---  Lists of earthquake precursors and detailed descriptions of as many of them
as possible that government and disaster mitigation officials and researchers
around the world could check for when they believe that a significant earthquake
might be approaching.  Those precursors would include things such as large,
fresh cracks in building foundations, abrupt changes in well water and ground
water table levels, earthquake clouds, large amounts of static noise on
television and radio transmissions, glowing lights on the horizon, unusual
behavior by pet, farm, and wild animals, greater numbers of people than normal
living in the area complaining about headaches, nausea, vertigo, and general
aches and pains.

---  Lists of and detailed descriptions of different types of earthquake
forecasting technologies.  They would include methods based on statistical
processes, the detection of electromagnetic pulses, surface temperature changes,
earthquake clouds, seismic activity, ground movement, changes in local
gravitational fields, and human and animal types of earthquake sensitivity.

---  A sophisticated bulletin board or blog that would let earthquake
forecasting researchers around the world post reports regarding their efforts
and enable them to specify who, if anyone, could post a note in response.  Such
a selectivity feature is needed to help keep people from getting into the types
of arguments that frequently discourage researchers from posting notes to
bulletin boards and Internet Newsgroups in the first place.

        Updates regarding these projects will be posted to both of the EarthWaves
bulletin boards, to my Data.html Web page, and probably eventually to the
sci.geo.earthquakes Internet Newsgroup.

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html

These are personal opinions.


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Can anyone give an explanation for the abbreviations in the column
headers in the  earthquake moment catalog search database?
Thanks.

This is a sample line with column headers


                 E P I C E N T E R   |          MOMENT      |           M
O M E N T    T E N S O R
      DATE    TIME (UTC)   LAT      LONG  SRC|DEPTH     VAL  EX HALF|SRC
EX         C O M P O N E N T S
   YR  MO DA HR MN SEC     deg      deg      |  km  Mw       Nm DUR |
Nm  MRR   MTT   MFF   MRT   MRF   MTF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
-------------------------------------
  1977 01 01 11:33:45.90  30.620  136.800 HRV|476.5 5.4 1.3  17  1.8|HRV
17 -0.32  0.80 -0.48  1.01 -0.36  0.40
                    0.7    0.07     0.10  ERR|  4.8
|         0.05  0.08  0.09  0.10  0.08  0.07










find the best old sciencefiction
www.vivzizi.com/sciencefictionbythedecade.html

find the best selling music every hour
www.vivzizi.com/thebestmusichourly.html

www.GlobalBoiling.com daily satellite images

www.ElectricQuakes.com daily sun and earthquake images.

I have a new crack at the back of my driveway here in Compton.

Diane

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

good question



On Aug 25, 2009, at 7:14 PM, GWMobile wrote:

> Anyone know why the live quake.usgs.gov seismographs no longer update
> live?
>
> They seem to only update every 50 to 15 minutes now.
>
> You used to be able to see the needle move every time you updated the
> screen.
>
> Used to be useful if you felt something and wanted to know immediately
> if it was an earthquake that registered. (Used to update instantly and
> faster than the eq maps.)
>
> Why are all the seimographs web feeds now delayed?
>
> find the best old sciencefiction
> www.vivzizi.com/sciencefictionbythedecade.html
>
> find the best selling music every hour
> www.vivzizi.com/thebestmusichourly.html
>
> www.GlobalBoiling.com daily satellite images
>
> www.ElectricQuakes.com daily sun and earthquake images.
>
>
>



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

have had the same rattling here all night, first one corner of the
house then another. We are in Thousand oaks.
Penny




On Aug 25, 2009, at 6:50 PM, GWMobile wrote:

> Felt something in sanata monica that rattled the refrigerator.
> Maybe a second or two or three and it rattled noticeable sounds
>
> .
>
>



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Anyone know why the live quake.usgs.gov seismographs no longer update
live?

They seem to only update every 50 to 15 minutes now.

You used to be able to see the needle move every time you updated the
screen.

Used to be useful if you felt something and wanted to know immediately
if it was an earthquake that registered. (Used to update instantly and
faster than the eq maps.)

Why are all the seimographs web feeds now delayed?


find the best old sciencefiction
www.vivzizi.com/sciencefictionbythedecade.html

find the best selling music every hour
www.vivzizi.com/thebestmusichourly.html

www.GlobalBoiling.com daily satellite images

www.ElectricQuakes.com daily sun and earthquake images.

Felt something in sanata monica that rattled the refrigerator.
Maybe a second or two or three and it rattled noticeable sounds



find the best old sciencefiction
www.vivzizi.com/sciencefictionbythedecade.html

find the best selling music every hour
www.vivzizi.com/thebestmusichourly.html

www.GlobalBoiling.com daily satellite images

www.ElectricQuakes.com daily sun and earthquake images.

Hey Sandi - we're still in the 10 day window of possible quake from
the aftermath of that 6.9 in the Gulf..  I think it was on the third
- hopefully you'll get that escrow closed beforehand!

Just everyone check the supplies..  I need more propane for the camping stove..

Canie

Hi, Bob!



Good to hear from you!  We really are a little shaken up here, wondering if
there is something bigger on the way.  I sure hope not.our house is in
escrow, ready to close in a couple of weeks.



Good advice..time to update the supplies!



Take care!



Regards from Fontana,

Sandi



   _____

From: earthwaves@yahoogroups.com [mailto:earthwaves@yahoogroups.com] On
Behalf Of Bob Fryer
Sent: Friday, August 07, 2009 11:52 AM
To: earthwaves@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [Earthwaves] Fontana Earthquakes





Hi Sandi,

Good to hear from you! When I saw "Fontana" I thought that might
shake you out....

Check your supplies.

Take care,
Bob

On Aug 7, 2009, at 8:46 AM, Sandi Banks wrote:

> The quakes felt here in Fontana (3 so far since 2AM) feel like thrust
> movement rather than side-to-side. They seem much stronger than they
> are
> registering. My dog and parrot are very agitated, and the weather here
> seems very strange right now. I do hope these are not foreshocks to
> something bigger.
>
> Sandi - Fontana, CA
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]





[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Hi Sandi,

Good to hear from you!  When I saw "Fontana" I thought that might
shake you out....

Check your supplies.

Take care,
Bob


On Aug 7, 2009, at 8:46 AM, Sandi Banks wrote:

> The quakes felt here in Fontana (3 so far since 2AM) feel like thrust
> movement rather than side-to-side. They seem much stronger than they
> are
> registering. My dog and parrot are very agitated, and the weather here
> seems very strange right now. I do hope these are not foreshocks to
> something bigger.
>
> Sandi - Fontana, CA
>


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

The quakes felt here in Fontana (3 so far since 2AM) feel like thrust
movement rather than side-to-side.  They seem much stronger than they are
registering.  My dog and parrot are very agitated, and the weather here
seems very strange right now.  I do hope these are not foreshocks to
something bigger.

Sandi - Fontana, CA







[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Just felt an earthquake in Santa Monica. Bigger than the mexico shaking

Either closer or they had a bigger one down there.

find the best old sciencefiction
www.vivzizi.com/sciencefictionbythedecade.html

find the best selling music every hour
www.vivzizi.com/thebestmusichourly.html

www.GlobalBoiling.com daily satellite images

www.ElectricQuakes.com daily sun and earthquake images.

While scientific obstructionism has raged in the past about the
electrical nature of earthquakes and the possibility of earthquake
warnings systems that debate is no longer relevant.

Despite the early ridicule, the electrical nature of earthquakes is now
demonstrably proving to be the best means to probably provide that
warning as many of us have claimed for years.  It's no longer  about the
obstructionists. The research has gone beyond the scientific deniers. We
can't wait for them to roll over and finally "get it".

This effort is NOW about trying to QUICKLY implement a warning method to
provide the thousands who will die in the next quake a chance to save
their lives. The likelihood is that the next big quake will happen in a
short time, and we don't have time for obstructionists to get in the way
of progress in establishing that warning system FAST.

We NOW need to build a political movement in California, Los Angeles and
San Francisco to make manning and funding a live earthquake warning
system a municipal PRIORITY. We need to build an array of ionosondes to
monitor and experimentally sample the ionospheric disturbances both
within and outside of the likely earthquake preparation zones for a
large 6.5 or greater magnitude quake which is most likely to cause
significant damage in the population centers of middle or southern
California. With the techniques apparently successfully used by Tsolis
and Xenos in " Seismo-ionospheric Coupling Correlation Analysis of
earthquakes in Greece, Using Empirical Mode Decomposition" (
http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/16/123/2009/npg-16-123-2009.pdf
) we can apparently filter for the warning signals occurring 1 to 7 days
before a quake.

Without that political movement to build the warning system those lives
that could have been saved in the upcoming "big one" will be lost
becuase others will forever continue to argue for "further continued
research" until the big one has already happened. If that political
effort DOESN'T happen the research will make little difference in our
lifetime until the next big one in ANOTHER hundred fifty years.

It will be no solace to the parents of dead mangled children and family
members including those on this group who will be furious when they
discover that the means to possibly give them a few possibly days
warning were not funded becuase of scientific foot draggers or fears of
"economic implications" of the formal establishment of a warning system
which probably would make people officially REALIZE California was
actually dangerous becuase of earthquakes. After all how could the high
rises fill with tenants if people knew the truth which is they are not
safe and many highrises will fall when California will likely experience
an earthquake catastrophe in the near future?

Will we remain the city too afraid of "economic avoidance" to establish
a warning system to "close the beaches" (and the city) when the looming
shark of a possible earthquake threatens our population?

In fact I hope a warning system could be promoted as the BEST way to
make California seem more economically viable DESPITE the certainty of a
destructive quake becuase at least people in high rises would feel their
personal lives will be less at risk with sufficient warning. Insurers of
buildings will have less comfort.

With the research I posted  (
http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/16/123/2009/npg-16-123-2009.pdf )
we now have a clear methodology to put a preliminary system of
ionosondes and filters in place and that preliminary system should be
LIVE DATA accessible TO THE PUBLIC DIRECTLY without "guidance" or "Panic
control" from scientists or government officials who will now set
themselves up as the arbiters of the warning and likely withhold it
until it is useless.

It's not  about the obstructionists.
Regarding obstructionists - a nod to Arthur Schopenhauer, who laid down
the basics in his maxim,"All truths go through three stages:
1. first they are ridiculed
2. then they are violently opposed
3. then they are accepted as self-evident."

(Having followed the order precisely notable past obstructionists
appears to be somewhere between 2 and 3 now as the research become more
undeniable. I await their future posts saying anyone "really knew it all
along" and "it was obvious and you were simply waiting for the proper
proof or attempting to improve it by holding people to a standard.")

Whether the former radical obstructionist who are now calling themselves
"skeptics" ever come around frankly I don't care and I doubt others do
either.
It is and always has been about establishing a warning system to save
lives BEFORE the next Big One hits. We can't wait for skeptics. Although
their attempts to limit communication among those who were working the
problem over the years haven't helped, we have managed to get close to a
practical warning system in spite of them.

We must now muster the political will and groundswell to have our best
possibilities for earthquake systems implemented.

Time is NOT on our side.

http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/16/123/2009/npg-16-123-2009.pdf

www.GlobalBoiling.com daily satellite images

www.ElectricQuakes.com latest earthquake data sensors.

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This may be the way we will finally get real short term prediction of
major quakes.
This is it folks.

The highlight :
" Results from our analysis are in accordance with previously-conducted
studies covering the same topic, clearly demonstrating that there are
ionospheric precursors 1 to 7 days prior to strong seismic events as
well as 1 to 2 days following such events."

What this means is sciedentists have made a huge breakthrough and learn
to analyze ionospheric
signals and screen out global effects leaving only local earthquake
precursor signals.
Then they find that they clearly identify ionospheric precursors to
earthquakes of 1 to 7 days prior to the quakes.

Short term earthquake prediction is almost with us folks (!) and its
coming straight from the space and electric signals just as I always
knew it would.

I just have to give credit to so many who endured all the ridicule and
all the fighting to get the word out to study the electric and space
signals and who  researched and reported those stories despite those who
have been mocking us for years. It is now paying off.  The science does
win in the end over preconceived and entrenched assumptions.

We have collectively redirected the world away from looking at
earthquakes as random events in dirt  as was common in the 1990's and
gotten them to study the electrical and space forces associated with
tectonic activity and at least in other countries they have listened.

Hopefully now we can get something implemented to give us a few days
real warning here in California before hundreds or maybe thousands die
in the next big one.

A free, full text PDF of this paper is linked below.
The abstract is included here..

1/1
Seismo-ionospheric Coupling Correlation Analysis of earthquakes in
Greece, Using Empirical Mode Decomposition
Author(s)    :    G. S. Tsolis; T. D. Xenos
Author Address    :    Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department
of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 54006 Thessaloniki, Greece
Keyword(s)    :
Source    :    Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Vol 16 No 1; Year
2009.
123-130
Abstract
Ionospheric variability as a result of earthquake events is a confirmed
phenomenon as published in various seismo-ionospheric coupling studies.
Generally, ionospheric variations resulting from earthquake activity
are
much weaker than disturbances generated by different sources, e.g.
geomagnetic storms. However, geomagnetic storm disturbances exhibit
more
global behaviour, whereas seismo-ionospheric variations occur only
locally in an area that is specified by the magnitude of the
earthquake.
Cross-correlation coefficient analysis is a technique proposed some
years ago, and ensures cancelation of geomagnetic storm variations of
the ionospheric plasma, provided that the measurements are taken from
stations with similar behaviour in these phenomena. In this paper we
will use the aforementioned technique for analyzing data from
ionospheric stations in Rome and Athens, and apply it to a series of
earthquakes in Greece. Considering the local behaviour of the
seismo-ionospheric variations, we expect that the Athens station, which
happens to be inside the area affected by the earthquake, will
accurately capture the disturbances. Due to its distance from the
activity, we also do not expect the Rome station measurements to be
affected by the seismic events in Greece. In addition, due to the fact
that ionospheric plasma parameters exhibit non-stationary and nonlinear
behaviour, we propose a novel signal processing technique known as the
Hilbert-Huang transform in order to denoise the data before we
calculate
the cross-correlation coefficient of the two signals. Results from our
analysis are in accordance with previously-conducted studies covering
the same topic, clearly demonstrating that there are ionospheric
precursors 1 to 7 days prior to strong seismic events as well as 1 to 2
days following such events.


http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/16/123/2009/npg-16-123-2009.pdf


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by David Brooks David Brooks - Wed Jul 22, 3:05 am ET
WELLINGTON (AFP) - A massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake last week has moved the
south of New Zealand closer to Australia, scientists said Wednesday...

For complete article: 
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090722/sc_afp/nzealandquakescience


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

I post this paper becuase obviously it has implications of mechanisms
that might be applicable to earthquakes and em emissions coming from
cracking earth structures.

The authors discuss the occasional reports of EM signals preceding
earthquakes and discuss how the earth depth attenuates all but certain
frequencies which reach the surface. Then they turn to the one source of
EM geologic change signals which are not attenuated by either depth or
atmosphere - spacecraft impacts on the moon.

In this case the Russian scientists studied electronic emissions coming
from the moon after impacts of spacecraft on its surface. This sort of
"expected moonquake" allowed them to be watching with the right
instruments at the right time over a very large surface area.
What they found were short and long term EM emissions of certain
frequencies which they hypothesize could be from the cracking lunar
surface.
They also include an in depth discussion of how a propagating crack
could create an EM (electromagnetic or radio) signal via the
piezoelectric effect.


George

Interpretation of the microwave non-thermal radiation of the Moon during
impact events

V. Grimalsky1, A. Berezhnoy2, 3, A. Kotsarenko4, N. Makarets5, S.
Koshevaya6, and R. P´erez Enr´ıquez4

1Instituto Nacional de Astrofisica, Optica y Electronica (INAOE),
Puebla, Mexico
2Advanced Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda
University, Tokyo, Japan
3Now at: Sternberg Astronomical Institute, Moscow University, Moscow,
Russia
4Centro de Geociencias, Juriquilla, UNAM, Quer´etaro, Mexico
5Kyiv National Shevchenko University, Faculty of Physics, Kyiv, Ukraine
6Universidad Autonoma del Estado de Morelos (UAEM), CIICAp, Cuernavaca,
Mexico
Received: 30 June 2004 – Revised: 23 November 2004 – Accepted: 24
November 2004 – Published: 30 November 2004

Abstract.

The results of recent observations of the nonthermal electromagnetic
(EM) emission at wavelengths of 2.5 cm, 13 cm, and 21 cm are summarized.
After strong impacts of meteorites or spacecrafts (Lunar Prospector)
with the Moon’s surface, the radio emissions in various frequency
ranges were recorded. The most distinctive phenomenon is the appearance
of quasi-periodic oscillations with amplitudes of 3–10K during several
hours. The mechanism concerning the EM emission from a propagating crack
within a piezoactive dielectric medium is considered. The impact may
cause the global acoustic oscillations of the Moon. These oscillations
lead to the crackening of the Moon’s surface. The propagation of a
crack within a piezoactive medium is accompanied by the excitation of an
alternative current source. It is revealed that the source of the EM
emission is the effective transient magnetization that appears in the
case of a moving crack in piezoelectrics. The moving crack creates
additional non-stationary local mechanical stresses around the apex of
the crack, which generate the non-stationary electromagnetic field. For
the cracks with a length of 0.1–1μm, the maximum of the EM emission
may be in the 1–10GHz range.

http://selena.sai.msu.ru/Ber/Publications/NathazardsEarthSystSci2004.pdf




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Quake, tsunami potential high on U.S. west coast
Mon Jul 20, 3:28 pm ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Scientists have underestimated the potential for a giant
quake and tsunami that could swamp much the U.S. northwest and Canadian west
coasts, British and U.S. researchers said on Monday....

Rest of article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090720/us_nm/us_quake_usa_tsunami

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Test

They have been getting EQs there lately.

Diane

"If my people, which are called by my Name
will humble themselves and pray, and
seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways, then
I will hear from heaven, I will forgive their sins, and
I will heal their land." II Chronicles 7:14.


----- Original Message -----
From: Barb
To: Pinpoint Newsletter;earthwaves@yahoogroups.com
Sent: 7/16/2009 2:33:02 AM
Subject: Pinpoint-News-- Fw: Geysers drilling project halted due to quakefears


Geysers drilling project halted due to quake fears
By MICHAEL COIT
THE PRESS DEMOCRAT


Published: Tuesday, July 14, 2009 at 9:29 a.m.
Last Modified: Tuesday, July 14, 2009 at 9:29 a.m.
Federal regulators have stopped a North Bay energy firm from conducting an
experimental type of drilling at The Geysers until more study is done on risks
it could trigger stronger earthquakes in the seismically active area...
Read article at:
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20090714/ARTICLES/907149985

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Thanks for the article Barb.  Interesting!  We do know what they are
currently up to produces quakes - injecting water - but intentionally
creating more 'cracks' in the bedrock to produce more steam seems a
bit dangerous to me - who knows what could go wrong?

Canie

Geysers drilling project halted due to quake fears
By MICHAEL COIT
THE PRESS DEMOCRAT


Published: Tuesday, July 14, 2009 at 9:29 a.m.
Last Modified: Tuesday, July 14, 2009 at 9:29 a.m.
Federal regulators have stopped a North Bay energy firm from conducting an
experimental type of drilling at The Geysers until more study is done on risks
it could trigger stronger earthquakes in the seismically active area...

Read article at:
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20090714/ARTICLES/907149985


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Kind of interesting intro to a paper follows about what they are doing
in France. (Free link to download paper too.
(I wonder how so of Socal building would faire. Especiallt after already
being weakened by Northridge. Did they ever strengthen buildings after
Northridge?)

Subject: shake a standing building to figure out it's earthquake
resistance. Seismic vulnerability analysis of moderate seismicity areas
using in situ experimental techniques: from the building to the city
scale ? Application to Grenoble and Pointe-à-Pitre

Seismic vulnerability analysis of moderate seismicity areas using in
situ experimental techniques: from the building to the city scale ?
Application to Grenoble and Pointe-à-Pitre (France)
Authors: Clotaire Michel (LGIT, EPFL), Philippe Guéguen (LGIT)
(Submitted on 10 Jul 2009)

     Abstract: Seismic vulnerability analysis of existing buildings
requires basic information on their structural behaviour. The ambient
vibrations of buildings and the modal parameters (frequencies, damping
ration and modal shapes) that can be extracted from them naturally
include the geometry and quality of material in the linear elastic part
of their behaviour. The aim of this work is to use this modal
information to help the vulnerability assessment. A linear dynamic modal
model based on experimental modal parameters is proposed and the
fragility curve corresponding to the damage state ?Slight? is built
using this model and a simple formula is proposed. This curve is
particularly interesting in moderate seismic areas. This methodology is
applied to the Grenoble City where ambient vibrations have been recorded
in 61 buildings of various types and to the Pointe-\`a-Pitre City with 7
study-buildings. The fragility curves are developed using the
aforementioned methodology. The seismic risk of the study-buildings is
discussed by performing seismic scenarios.

link to paper can be found here

http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.1735





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