Australian Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson said

JOHN ANDERSON: ... I have to say I do share the community's quite deep
concern about the outlook at the moment because it really is related to
very heavy demand for fuel around the place, limitations of global
refining capacity and, I have to say it, ***the very real prospect that at
some stage in the next few short years global production may very well
peak*** and it may be hard to increase it further at a time when countries
like China, of course, are looking for a lot more fuel and even in places
like Australia our dependence on oil, on petrol and transportation
continues to increase.

BARRIE CASSIDY: So you are essentially saying that this time the community
will simply have to ride it out?

JOHN ANDERSON: Well, I would make several points - the first is that,
presumably, refining capacity can still at this point in time be
increased, that in fact the higher fuel prices will drive that in a sense.
As farmers often say about commodity prices, you know, higher prices solve
the problem because people crank up production. I hope that happens and,
of course, currency movements also impact. I would also make the point
that, quite frankly, this is one of the reasons why I believe, in common
with legislators in most other Western countries, that we need to be
determinedly looking at alternative fuels, both extenders and new fuels
and that includes biofuels. But I don't want to fudge and say that there
is an easy answer to this. The realities of global fuel refining are quite
stark.

http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2004/s1109174.htm

But in The Canberra Times, Monday 10 May, page 16, only a week ago, a
"spokesman for the Deputy Prime Minister said to link current spiralling
prices with oil reserves was ridiculous, given the instability of the
oil-rich Middle East."

""The Greens like the idea of catastrophe, It didn't happen in the 1970's
[when they first predicted one] and it won't happen now," he said."

A 180 degree turn in the space of a week. Tells you something about the
abysmal level of understanding amongst people whose job is to know these
things.

Alex Pollard