Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 23:20:10 -0000
From: "ofulm2003" <YESfan2004@...>
Subject: Re: Forthcoming Book Review - The Party's Over - Fortean Times

--- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Richard Heinberg" <rheinberg@i...>
wrote:
> Nice to see this book review, and of course I like the fact that the
> reviewer recommends my book. However I'm dumbfounded with the following
> statement:
> "As far as I can see, the basic argument is sound, the only quibbles
relate
> to exactly when we
> reach the "peak" of oil production. Heinberg quotes figures suggesting
that
> the date
> is likely to be around 2025."
> I very clearly state that global oil production peak is most likely to
fall
> within the window of 2006 to 2015 (see p. 119). These days (18 months
after
> the book wans finished and off to the printer) I'm more likely to say 2006
> to 2010.
>
> Richard Heinberg
> Santa Rosa CA

> The Party's Over
>
> Heinberg, Richard "The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial
> Societies". New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, Canada, 2003. Pbk,
xii,
> 274pp. Graphs, bibliography, notes, index. ISBN 0-86571-482-7 $17.95


Sir:

I'm curious what major events in the the last 18 months have changed your
estimate, or view of the oil production
peak.

I think I'll buy your book too.

Your articles are appearing on my employer's website. (www.tceq.state.tx.us)

James near Burnet, Texas

===================

James,

Since the publication of THE PARTY'S OVER we've seen:

1. Sharply declining discovery figures for 2002 and 2003.
2. Increasingly pessimistic assessments from ASPO (Colin Campbell) pulling
projections of the peak for all liquids back from about 2015 to 2007.
3. Evaporation of spare capacity throughout the entire global
production/distribution system, leading to the recent run-up in oil prices.
4. Matthew Simmons's dire assessments of the state of Saudi Arabia's
reserves.
5. Statements by Roger Blanchard and others about the major projects coming
on line in the next couple of years (mostly in deep water off the coasts of
West Africa, Brazil, and in the Gulf of Mexico) that are likely to boost
total global production temporarily--but that will play out rather quickly.
There seem to be few big projects further out in the 2008-2012 frame to
replace or supplement these.
6. The peaking of production in ever more nations--now including Norway,
Great Britain, and Oman; Richard Duncan reckons that, of 44 significant
producing nations, 24 are past their individual all-time peaks.
7. Statements by industry representatives (e.g., Jon Thompson of ExxonMobil)
that, given current depletion rates, huge new replacement projects will be
needed as soon as 2010 in order to keep up with rising demand.
8. Soaring demand from China, Japan, Korea, and the US.
9. Increasing instability in the Middle East, fomented in large part by the
unwise and spectacularly bungled US-British invasion and occupation of Iraq,
but threatening now to spill over into Saudi Arabia and other nations.

I'm a writer, not a number-cruncher, but to me all of this suggests that the
peak will come sooner rather than later. Increasingly the arguments of the
optimists seem to be mere hand-waving, with nothing solid to back them up.
Where are the countervailing trends?

--Richard Heinberg
Santa Rosa CA