New Zealand Government-sponsored consultant report prepares NZ for oil
shortage emergency, as recommended by IEA



There is a very interesting report commissioned by the NZ Government, in
response to recommendations from the International Energy Agency to be
prepared for oil shortage emergencies.



Details:



Oil Demand Restraint Options for New Zealand

Prepared for Ministry of Economic Development, June 2005



By Covec,
"Covec is an applied economics practice that provides rigorous and
independent analysis and advice. We have a reputation for producing high
quality work that includes quantitative analysis and strategic insight. Our
consultants solve problems arising from policy, legal, strategic,
regulatory, market and environmental issues, and we provide advice to a
broad range of companies and government agencies. Covec develops strategies,
designs policy, and produces forecasts, reports, expert testimony and
training courses. Our commitment to high-quality, objective advice has
provided confidence to some of the largest industrial and governmental
organisations in Australasia."

Authorship:

This document was written by Tim Denne, John Small, Fraser Colegrave,
Richard Hale, Ian

Twomey and Bill Smith. For further information email tim@... or
phone (09) 916-1960 (Auckland, New Zealand)



Although supposedly for 'temporary' emergencies, it is still an very good
attempt to anticipate the impacts of oil shortage, and to rank priorities
well.



The global peak of oil production is expected to be anytime from now on by
many petroleum industry specialists, see www.peakoil.net
<http://www.peakoil.net/> .

(Covec does not specify expected peak oil date.)



The report include communications strategy to get the public on board.

It includes setup of administrative authorities, and their roles.

It covers scenarios from minor "7% or less", to medium "7-25%", to quite
major "greater than 25% cut in supply".



It is 105 pages of .pdf file.



The report can be viewed at
http://www.med.govt.nz/ers/oil_pet/demand-restraint/report/report.pdf



Here's the table of contents, showing the breadth of coverage.



Contents

Executive Summary i

1. Introduction 1

1.1. Background 1

1.2. Approach and Structure of the Report 1

2. The UK Fuel Tax Protests of 2000 2

2.1. Changes in Travel Patterns 2

2.2. Perceived Impacts of Fuel Shortages 4

2.3. Responses to Future Shortages 5

2.4. Lessons from the Crisis 5

3. Experience with Restraint Measures 7

3.1. Overview 7

3.2. Oil Demand Restraint 7

3.3. Restraint for Other Products-Electricity 20

3.4. Restraint in Other Products-Water 22

3.5. Behavioural Change 28

3.6. Efficient Rationing 38

3.7. Lessons for Oil Demand Restraint 43

4. Restraint Options 44

4.1. Introduction 44

4.2. Oil Demand in New Zealand 44

4.3. Components of a Response Plan 54

4.4. Roles 55

4.5. Monitoring 56

4.6. Communication 57

4.7. Voluntary Phase 58

4.8. Mandatory Phase 61

4.9. Rationing 63

4.10. Minimum Sales 68

4.11. Potential Measures for Other Transport Forms 69

4.12. Summary of Analysis 70

5. Conclusions and Recommendations 71

5.1. Conclusions 71

5.2. Steps to be Taken Now 71

5.3. Institutional Arrangements 73

5.4. Communications Strategy 74

5.5. Components of a Response Plan 76

5.6. Groundwork for Individual Measures 78

5.7. Information and Monitoring Systems 79

5.8. Timeframes and Trigger Points 80

5.9. Review 81

Annex A: UK Priority Uses 82

Annex B: Calculations of Effectiveness of Measures 89



It recommends 'immediately' to do the following

Establish Coordination Team, Strategic Management Committee,

Communications Team and Supply Network/Stock Coordination Team

Identify a figurehead(s) to front the interaction with the public and media

Decide whether there is a risk of hoarding. If so, introduce an immediate
requirement for minimum sales



As a 'next step' it recommends:

" Work with local government and industry to provide necessary guidance
documents and

information packs surrounding the different voluntary measures Develop a
monitoring system

including measures of consumption, business-as-usual levels of consumption
and supply

levels Design a risk meter as the basis for public communication Establish
targets for demand reductions against which progress is monitored

Identify and work with an advertising/PR company to manage the communication
with

the public throughout the crisis Assess risk (severity and duration of
supply shortage/reduction

requirement). Introduce measures as suggested in Table 13 above"



Other countries are probably producing similar documents.



You may however draw attention of local, regional and federal
administrations to this document as an example, or even as the basis for
their own equivalents, possibly even conferring with Covec. That could save
duplication of effort, saving time and money - getting responses ready while
there is still relatively cheap energy available to do so.



I have no association with Covec. My attention was drawn to the report only
this week by newspaper mentions of it, and email notification by friends.



Bruce Thomson

Moderator, RunningOnEmptyNZ

bthomson@...

20 Lyndhurst Street,

Palmerston North, New Zealand

06 357-7773 or 357-7889

or

115 Holloway Road (off Aro Street)

Wellington, New Zealand

04 385-4777





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