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Estimation Techniques   Message List  
Reply Message #135269 of 152922 |
Re: [XP] Re: Estimation Techniques

Hello, Manuel. On Wednesday, September 19, 2007, at 2:13:20 AM,
you wrote:

> If, on the other hand, you frequently find yourself in a situation where
> a person interpreted an estimate not in the way intended by
> the person who estimated, it may help to calculate estimates that
> are not commitments not in days, but in abstract units, to emphasize
> that they are not, well, days, but something that corresponds to a
> day /on average/ if multiplied by some factor.

I've been told that "in truth", an estimate is supposed to be a
/range/, not a point. (Though I have heard the phrase "point
estimate", which is, I suppose, a point.)

I wonder what would happen if we estimated "I can do that in 2.5 to
5 days", rather than "I estimate that as requiring 5 days." I'd be
concerned that "they" would just assume the 2.5 ...

Ron Jeffries
www.XProgramming.com
You can observe a lot by watching. --Yogi Berra




Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:32 pm

RonaldEJeffries
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Message #135269 of 152922 |
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Oleg, for me the point is communication. Not long ago I attended a meeting where we talked about project estimates. There were five people from sales, product...
Manuel Klimek
manuel.klimek
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Sep 19, 2007
6:13 am

Hello, Manuel. On Wednesday, September 19, 2007, at 2:13:20 AM, ... I've been told that "in truth", an estimate is supposed to be a /range/, not a point....
Ron Jeffries
RonaldEJeffries
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Sep 19, 2007
1:33 pm

... Yes. I'd even go further, Ron, and say that an estimation is actually a probability distribution that describes how likely a task will be finished within a...
Chris Wheeler
chris_h_wheeler
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Sep 19, 2007
2:24 pm

Hello, Chris. On Wednesday, September 19, 2007, at 10:24:19 AM, ... Yes, surely. And I'm really not optimistic about the average manager reading status...
Ron Jeffries
RonaldEJeffries
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Sep 19, 2007
2:37 pm

... Maybe not *that* exactly, but I'm pretty sure most would get the idea if presented in the form "It's most likely that the feature will be done in less than...
Chris Wheeler
chris_h_wheeler
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Sep 19, 2007
6:08 pm

... ...therefore, as many of us know, let's make the range as small as possible to maximize the accuracy with which the point approximates the range. :) -- J....
J. B. Rainsberger
nails762
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Sep 20, 2007
1:16 am

On 19 Sep 2007, at 14:32, Ron Jeffries wrote: [snip] ... [snip] I re-read Waltzing with Bears last year and was really struck by the comment in there somewhere...
Adrian Howard
ajh65537
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Sep 20, 2007
10:02 am

... Does this mean in frequency (how often it takes less time vs. more time) or in amount of under-times vs. over-times? If frequency, then we can expect the...
Steven Gordon
sfman2k
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Sep 20, 2007
2:02 pm

... In "Rapid Development", Steve McConnell recommends you give estimates in "biggest number first" order. That is to say, you'd report the estimate as: ...
Matt Heusser
heusserm
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Sep 20, 2007
11:52 pm

Hello, Matt. On Thursday, September 20, 2007, at 7:52:54 PM, you ... Interesting idea! Ron Jeffries www.XProgramming.com Show me the features!...
Ron Jeffries
RonaldEJeffries
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Sep 21, 2007
10:39 am
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