Hi Ron,

> Similarly, suppose we studied Agile transitions and found them
> successful ten percent of the time, or even ninety. With nothing to
> compare with, the numbers really are quite without meaning. The
> numbers might still /sell/, mind you, and so we might /convince/
> the CIO with a good bunch of numbers. But would we have ahold of
> the truth? Not so much.
>
Although I agree that further investigation is necessary to qualify
why transitions succeed or fail, I still think that a broad indicator
like a success rate would serve some meaningful purpose, both for
sales and for those of us involved in transitions. I like to think of
it in parallel to what the Dow Jones composite index is to the stock
market. The indicator itself doesn't tell you why the market dropped
or rose 200 pts. The purpose it serves is merely informing investors
how the broader market did that day. It's up to the individual
investor to find out why. The success rate of agile transitions,
along with the number of transitions attempted, would provide an
indication of whether there is a growing demand for agile transitions
and how that demand is being met. If the number were to indicate poor
transition success, I think it would spur even more collaboration
among the community, which would hopefully lead to practitioners
sharing actual data (taken from Chris: how long a program took to pay
back it's startup costs, and reporting whether they felt the program
is returning on it's cost, over time).

It sounds to me like this is not happening. But if it is, I'd be
happy to be pointed in the right direction.

Niraj.