I'm not trying to speak for Ron but I'm going to try and answer the
question.



If, by "not favorable," he means "interpreted to show that agility doesn't
work," here are some examples of statistics being misused that way:



SUVs are more likely to kill the drivers of cars they hit than cars (instead
of cars are more likely to get you killed in a collision than SUVs).



Since the end of the last glacial period of the ice age that we are
currently in, the global average temperature has been on the rise (duh),
this coincides with the industrial revolution; since the earth revolves
around us, the global average temperature change must be our doing (instead
of taking into account the natural rise and fall of temperatures and the
fact that we are still in a freaking ice age).



Statistics that come from "historical surveys" are really not very effective
tools because the filter of interpretation plays too large a role. They are
given the same kind of credibility as real science but they are missing one
key element: verifiability. There is always an element of the interpreters
fantasy mixed in with the "results" and the only way to counter it is to try
and spin the same numbers to prove your point. People don't tend to reason
these things out for themselves so whoever has the biggest megaphone wins,
rather than the one with the cleanest, most agenda-free interpretation.



Max Guernsey, III

Managing Member, Hexagon Software

<http://www.hexsw.com/> http://www.hexsw.com

<http://www.dataconstructor.com/> http://www.dataconstructor.com



From: extremeprogramming@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:extremeprogramming@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Dale Emery
Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2008 1:09 PM
To: extremeprogramming@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [XP] Success rates of Agile Transitions



Hi Ron,

> But someone else will, and then you get to deal with the misinterpretation
> > anyway.
>
> Yes. That's the issue I'm pointing out with collection of statistics. As
> Steven Gordon points out, they'll be hard to
> interpret. It's my view that they will not be strongly favorable.

I'm not sure what you mean by favorable...

Can you give an example of a statistic that would be favorable, and one that
would be unfavorable? What is it that is favorable/unfavorable about them?

Dale

--
Dale Emery, Consultant
Inspiring Leadership for Software People
Web: http://www.dhemery.com
Weblog: http://www.dhemery.com/cwd

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