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Measuring Welfare   Message List  
Reply | Forward Message #34 of 65 |
Re: [futarchy_discuss] Measuring Welfare

>I would make it clear to survey respondents that  personal circumstantial well-being is what's being asked about. So the survey question would be something like "Are you better off than you were N years ago?"

You could be better off or worse off just because of changes in age. Most 25 year olds are better off then most 95 year olds for non government related reasons. So if you ask "
"Are you better off than you were N years ago?"" all sorts of factors relating to the persons age are brought in.

>Drazen Prelec's "Bayesian Truth Serum" (BTS)
That is a really interesting concept. Thanks for pointing it out.
   David

On 27/03/2008, Tom Breton (Tehom) <tehom@...> wrote:

> I see many problems with these suggested measures
> Lifespan can be extended in all sorts of authoritarian ways. Ban
> smoking is an obvious one.

The law of unintended consequences.

This sort of discussion is largely an attempt to anticipate those
consequences.

> Is there any way to measure the value of
> free choice in GDP+?{1}

Or, is there a way to measure unanticipated consequences as a whole?
This was one reason I propose a satisfaction metric: it covers the whole
territory, anticipated or not. Rather, I should say it covers the visible
territory; it does not cover unseen dangers and it might be distorted by
factors like media coverage that distort what's visible.

> Subjective comparisons with the past. Many people think that the past
> there was no crime and the health care was much better. Almost all
> evidence(2) I have seen seems to show these beliefs to be not very
> accurate. If people do have rose tinted hindsight how can you
> counteract this bias?

I anticipated that objection and answered it. Perhaps you found my answer
unconvincing. If so, could you say why?

> I am not saying your suggestions are bad. They are much better then
> the ones I did not make. But I do think it is worth examining these
> ideas to see what happens.

Definitely. It is important to "beat hard on these new ideas".

> 1. It may be that choice has very little value
> http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/93
> http://www.swarthmore.edu/SocSci/bschwar1/Sci.Amer.pdf

FWIW, I recently read Schwartz' book _The paradox of choice_ on the same
theme. I found it only half convincing.

> (2) http://www.isteve.com/abortion.htm
>
>
> On 27/03/2008, Tom Breton (Tehom) <tehom@...> wrote:
>>
>> [...]
>> I would include a component to measure self-reported satisfaction.
>>
>> Now, self-reported satisfaction ("happiness") is notoriously
>> problematic. Good fortune doesn't make people as happy as they
>> predicted it would, and ill fortune doesn't make them as unhappy as
>> they predict. Healthy, rich people aren't that much happier. And so
>> on.
>>
>> To counter this, I would explicitly indicate the baseline for
>> comparison and I would make it clear to survey respondents that
>> personal circumstantial well-being is what's being asked about. So
>> the survey question would be something like "Are you better off than
>> you were N years ago?" (to nearly paraphrase a certain political
>> slogan)
>>
[...]

Tom Breton (Tehom)




--
Your rant may be recorded for training purposes
http://liveatthewitchtrials.blogspot.com/

Thu Mar 27, 2008 6:09 pm

iamreddave
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Bhutan is trying to define national welfare http://www.physorg.com/news125462439.html "The main concerns have been identified as psychological well-being,...
David Curran
iamreddave
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Mar 25, 2008
2:08 pm

... Life expectancy provides a fairly objective measure that is rather highly correlated with the concerns that I care about. Some care needs to be taken to...
Peter C. McCluskey
pcmgeek
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Mar 26, 2008
3:34 am

... I'm glad you asked that. I would include a component to measure self-reported satisfaction. Now, self-reported satisfaction ("happiness") is notoriously ...
Tom Breton (Tehom)
tehom2000
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Mar 27, 2008
2:55 am

I see many problems with these suggested measures Lifespan can be extended in all sorts of authoritarian ways. Ban smoking is an obvious one. Is there any way...
David Curran
iamreddave
Offline Send Email
Mar 27, 2008
11:27 am

... The law of unintended consequences. This sort of discussion is largely an attempt to anticipate those consequences. ... Or, is there a way to measure...
Tom Breton (Tehom)
tehom2000
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Mar 27, 2008
5:45 pm

... well-being is what's being asked about. So the survey question would be something like "Are you better off than you were N years ago?" You could be better...
David Curran
iamreddave
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Mar 27, 2008
6:09 pm

... That is true. I'm tempted to suggest framing the question in a way that excluded mere age. Something like "Other than being N years older than you were,...
Tom Breton (Tehom)
tehom2000
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Mar 27, 2008
9:09 pm

... If we had a good measure of psychological well-being, that should solve this problem. I doubt we can solve the problem without measuring psychological...
Peter C. McCluskey
pcmgeek
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Mar 28, 2008
9:01 pm

... You make a good point. Especially "how they think they ought to have felt" - that's something I hadn't considered. On the other hand, even though I summed...
Tom Breton (Tehom)
tehom2000
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Mar 29, 2008
6:33 pm

... By not asking them to do intertemporal comparisons. You appear to have suggested doing those comparisons in order to solve problems associated with...
Peter C. McCluskey
pcmgeek
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Mar 31, 2008
9:20 pm

... It seems to me that satisfaction reports are implicitly some sort of intertemporal comparison. Or at least the alternative bases for satisfaction reports...
Tom Breton (Tehom)
tehom2000
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Apr 1, 2008
1:59 am
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