investments represent a bunch of smart people trying to guess the future.
What other areas do people think might have more accurate resource allocation using prediction markets?
Science http://hanson.gmu.edu/gamble.html
education http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2008/07/reforming-education-market-based.html
Any other areas?
Regards
David
Howdy folks,
My name is Paul Silva, I'm an entrepreneur who works primarily in the
Angel Investing world (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angel_investing).
I learned of futarchy about 6 months ago and have been fascinated by
it ever since. And while I found the original whitepaper extremely
dense and difficult to process (this is not my native field!), I found
Robin's humility in knowing that he does NOT have THE answer - but
hopefully a SYSTEM to find BETTER answers. That concept in and of
itself is deeply intriguing to me.
Futarchy also has some relevance to my day job of angel investing. I
run a professional angel investor group - AKA a few dozen successful entrepreneurs who are looking to invest in hopefully-soon-to-be-
successful entrepreneurs with young companies. Much like the
problem's futarchy aims to solve, early stage private equity
investments represent a bunch of smart people trying to guess the
future. They buy stock in the young companies and then, for the most
part, have to sit on that stock until either the company dies or
generates a liquidation event whereby the investors can cash out. It
is extremely difficult to guess which companies will and will not
succeed.
Anyway, enough from me. I have a lot more back-reading on this forum
to catch up on. Thanks for creating another place for people to
discuss this interesting concept.
-Paul (www.angelcatalyst.com)