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Introduction from a New Guy   Message List  
Reply | Forward Message #51 of 66 |
Re: [futarchy_discuss] Introduction from a New Guy

> Much like the problem's futarchy aims to solve, early stage private equity
investments represent a bunch of smart people trying to guess the future.

What other areas do people think might have more accurate resource allocation using prediction markets?
Science http://hanson.gmu.edu/gamble.html
education http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2008/07/reforming-education-market-based.html

Any other areas?
   Regards
    David

2009/2/8 Paul G. Silva <paulgsilva@...>

Howdy folks,

My name is Paul Silva, I'm an entrepreneur who works primarily in the
Angel Investing world (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angel_investing).
I learned of futarchy about 6 months ago and have been fascinated by
it ever since. And while I found the original whitepaper extremely
dense and difficult to process (this is not my native field!), I found
Robin's humility in knowing that he does NOT have THE answer - but
hopefully a SYSTEM to find BETTER answers. That concept in and of
itself is deeply intriguing to me.

Futarchy also has some relevance to my day job of angel investing. I
run a professional angel investor group - AKA a few dozen successful entrepreneurs who are looking to invest in hopefully-soon-to-be-
successful entrepreneurs with young companies. Much like the
problem's futarchy aims to solve, early stage private equity
investments represent a bunch of smart people trying to guess the
future. They buy stock in the young companies and then, for the most
part, have to sit on that stock until either the company dies or
generates a liquidation event whereby the investors can cash out. It
is extremely difficult to guess which companies will and will not
succeed.

Anyway, enough from me. I have a lot more back-reading on this forum
to catch up on. Thanks for creating another place for people to
discuss this interesting concept.

-Paul (www.angelcatalyst.com)




Mon Feb 9, 2009 5:32 pm

iamreddave
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Message #51 of 66 |
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Howdy folks, My name is Paul Silva, I'm an entrepreneur who works primarily in the Angel Investing world (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angel_investing). I...
Paul G. Silva
silvazform
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Feb 8, 2009
5:36 am

... investments represent a bunch of smart people trying to guess the future. What other areas do people think might have more accurate resource allocation...
David Curran
iamreddave
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Feb 9, 2009
5:32 pm

1. Thanks for the links. 2. A GREAT question. Am I understanding you right in that you are looking for what TYPES of problems lend themselves to prediction ...
Paul G. Silva
silvazform
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Feb 23, 2009
2:20 am

... You ask good questions. Some approaches: * The "side-bets" approach. In this approach, investors are expected to arrange their portfolios to control what...
Tom Breton (Tehom)
tehom2000
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Feb 25, 2009
12:35 am

1. Thank you for the detailed reply. It was very helpful! 2. The more I study futarchy, the more I realize I was NOT a finance major back in college. By...
Paul G. Silva
silvazform
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Feb 25, 2009
1:24 pm

... Interesting idea. I assume you mean a MMORG? What sort of utility function could you have? ... By new features/changes, do you mean that a dev team...
Tom Breton (Tehom)
tehom2000
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Feb 26, 2009
1:12 am

Good clarifying questions - I've been in this world so long I forget what it looks like to a normal person :). The types of online games where I think this...
Paul G. Silva
silvazform
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Feb 27, 2009
1:35 am
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