It's easier to explain futarchy if I first explain Idea Futures, another idea Robin Hanson had. So without further ado, "Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is"...
First, you need to be familiar with Idea Futures in order to make sense of this. If you're not, please read "Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is" Meets The...
This description is borrowed from an earlier email I wrote. The scenario I worry about is that, under the futarchy mechanism, someone (call her Alice) makes a...
In the last post I described the Opacity Problem, a serious problem with futarchy. If you haven't read it, you will need to have read it to understand this...
In an earlier message I proposed that the Opacity Problem might be tamed by using a parallel market to estimate uncertainty. How might a parallel market...
In an earlier message I proposed that the Opacity Problem might be tamed by using controlled language and a complexity metric. Proposal: * Require that...
One feature that distinguishes futarchy with standard prediction markets is the "call off" feature. For every policy proposed, there are two markets created,...
... Answering my own post, I think the solution is to (a) fix the strike price early, and (b) undo the effect of external fluctuations by making the enactment...
... Are you saying that the proposal will pass if the following is true? price("yes") - price("no") > 2 * (call(GDP+) - put(GDP+)) + fixed_threshold If so, are...
... price ... Specifically, ... Not quite. I like to think of "yes" and "no" as long and short sides of the same issue, rather than parallel markets. That...
Sorry, I meant to look over your previous post, but forgot to. ... I don't see how this works... Wouldn't the price of "yes" be: p(P) * ((call(GDP+) + c1 -...
[In my first attempt at posting this, the head got cut off, so I'm reposting it. I will delete the old munged post of mine] The futarchy proposal seems to...
... That's a very good point Wei Dai. My formula worked only when the probability of enactment was 1/2. It needs to work for any value of that and right now...
Having given it some thought, and with thanks to Wei Dai for pointing out the problem, I think we can extract the desirability of P that we can meaningfully...
In the last message, I suggested a formula for extracting Delta, the effect of P on GDP+, and I pointed out a problem extracting Delta at extreme values of...
Another question about futarchy that interests me is this: How can futarchy handle competing proposals? This is partly missing functionality and partly an...
An example to motivate concern about timing. The example is drawn from the time before railroad gauge was standardized. In the example, a region faces 3...
Hello Imagine a situation where a government was asked to pick between two competing standards. HD-DVD and Blu-Ray say (this war is now over) . Could they...
... That's true, but the example wasn't really about which gauge to choose or how to choose it. It was about how a futarchy-type system can know whether it's...
An example illustrating the opposite side of the delay question. Sometimes waiting makes the situation worse. In a hypothetical city on the gulf coast,...
In my last message, I concluded that a futarchy system would benefit from a mechanism that explicitly considers whether to delay a promising proposal or not....
... Your message implies that all attempts to avoid the opacity problem via human judgment require a single authority. I disagree. I suspect part of my...
Bhutan is trying to define national welfare http://www.physorg.com/news125462439.html "The main concerns have been identified as psychological well-being,...
... It wasn't just the word monarchy. You also used "someone" and "that office", which all imply that you're imagining a centralized entity. -- ... Peter...
... Life expectancy provides a fairly objective measure that is rather highly correlated with the concerns that I care about. Some care needs to be taken to...
... I'm glad you asked that. I would include a component to measure self-reported satisfaction. Now, self-reported satisfaction ("happiness") is notoriously ...
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