Is what is happening at the moment in Italy a form of futarchy? "Italian bonds rose, pushing down yields from euro-era records, as the nation was pressed to...
Bhutan is trying to define national welfare http://www.physorg.com/news125462439.html "The main concerns have been identified as psychological well-being,...
There is a new competition to predict where murders in Philadelphia* *will occur http://www.analyticsx.com/ This seems similar to a prediction market for a...
It seems to me that this all boils down to trying to determine the price of something under a box. This is solved in a normal market by the seller refusing to...
... Not much, because nobody knows what would count as enacting it. ... True, but regardless which type got passed, Malcolm would want to show it after it's...
There is an interesting article here http://reason.com/news/show/135539.html on predictions about gay marriage "Why won't leading opponents of same-sex...
Howdy folks, My name is Paul Silva, I'm an entrepreneur who works primarily in the Angel Investing world (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angel_investing). I...
This description is borrowed from an earlier email I wrote. The scenario I worry about is that, under the futarchy mechanism, someone (call her Alice) makes a...
[image: Futarchy] Pronounced FEW-tark-ee. A theoretical government controlled in part by speculative markets. Coined by Robin D. Hanson of George Mason...
I noticed the other day that the wikipedia page for futarchy is pretty bare. This is probably where most people are first introduced to the concept so even a...
A month ago we talked about how GDP+ might be measured (in "Measuring Welfare"). I suggested that part of GDP+ could be the sum of individual satisfaction...
In the last post I described the Opacity Problem, a serious problem with futarchy. If you haven't read it, you will need to have read it to understand this...
In my last message, I concluded that a futarchy system would benefit from a mechanism that explicitly considers whether to delay a promising proposal or not....
An example illustrating the opposite side of the delay question. Sometimes waiting makes the situation worse. In a hypothetical city on the gulf coast,...
An example to motivate concern about timing. The example is drawn from the time before railroad gauge was standardized. In the example, a region faces 3...
Another question about futarchy that interests me is this: How can futarchy handle competing proposals? This is partly missing functionality and partly an...
In the last message, I suggested a formula for extracting Delta, the effect of P on GDP+, and I pointed out a problem extracting Delta at extreme values of...
Sorry, I meant to look over your previous post, but forgot to. ... I don't see how this works... Wouldn't the price of "yes" be: p(P) * ((call(GDP+) + c1 -...
that constitutes enactment. One candidate for a "trigger" is obvious: When it is somehow decided to go forward with the proposal, this event itself constitutes...
One feature that distinguishes futarchy with standard prediction markets is the "call off" feature. For every policy proposed, there are two markets created,...
... Are you saying that the proposal will pass if the following is true? price("yes") - price("no") > 2 * (call(GDP+) - put(GDP+)) + fixed_threshold If so, are...
In an earlier message I proposed that the Opacity Problem might be tamed by using controlled language and a complexity metric. Proposal: * Require that...
In an earlier message I proposed that the Opacity Problem might be tamed by using a parallel market to estimate uncertainty. How might a parallel market...
First, you need to be familiar with Idea Futures in order to make sense of this. If you're not, please read "Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is" Meets The...
It's easier to explain futarchy if I first explain Idea Futures, another idea Robin Hanson had. So without further ado, "Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is"...
