[image: Futarchy] Pronounced FEW-tark-ee. A theoretical government controlled in part by speculative markets. Coined by Robin D. Hanson of George Mason...
Howdy folks, My name is Paul Silva, I'm an entrepreneur who works primarily in the Angel Investing world (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angel_investing). I...
Tom, This is not my area of expertise at all, so if the question I am about to propose is foolish I apologize in advance. Why can't we simply design the rules...
Hi, Paul. Welcome to the list. ... That's a discussion I was trying to have and mostly didn't get. So thank you. But I'm going to answer your next bit...
... investments represent a bunch of smart people trying to guess the future. What other areas do people think might have more accurate resource allocation...
Thanks for the welcome. Had I read more of the old messages before making my first post, I would have seen some of what you thoughtfully laid out in our reply...
1. Thanks for the links. 2. A GREAT question. Am I understanding you right in that you are looking for what TYPES of problems lend themselves to prediction ...
... You ask good questions. Some approaches: * The "side-bets" approach. In this approach, investors are expected to arrange their portfolios to control what...
1. Thank you for the detailed reply. It was very helpful! 2. The more I study futarchy, the more I realize I was NOT a finance major back in college. By...
... Interesting idea. I assume you mean a MMORG? What sort of utility function could you have? ... By new features/changes, do you mean that a dev team...
Good clarifying questions - I've been in this world so long I forget what it looks like to a normal person :). The types of online games where I think this...
There is an interesting article here http://reason.com/news/show/135539.html on predictions about gay marriage "Why won't leading opponents of same-sex...
... Right. That would be far off topic. ... For futarchy as such, not much. They are just people who stay out of the market. Their consequences are about...
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Raph Frank
raphfrk@...
Dec 16, 2009 9:44 pm
It seems to me that this all boils down to trying to determine the price of something under a box. This is solved in a normal market by the seller refusing to...
Greetings, Raph. I like your method for using the market to determine uncertainty. I had some ideas on doing that but your method is more elegant. One thing:...
I'm going to use Raph's analysis post as a jumping-off point and spend this post discussing one issue. ... [...] ... [...] ... Yes, good analysis. But our...
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Raph Frank
raphfrk@...
Dec 19, 2009 9:17 pm
... Effectively, he puts a contract under each box. ... It doesn't actually matter since they are encrypted. If someone is abusing the system, you could bet...
... Not much, because nobody knows what would count as enacting it. ... True, but regardless which type got passed, Malcolm would want to show it after it's...
(In a separate message because it goes into detail) ... I thought the analogy was that the value of the "object" under the box was the net benefit from the...
There is a new competition to predict where murders in Philadelphia* *will occur http://www.analyticsx.com/ This seems similar to a prediction market for a...
How do you measure GDP+ in a country like Afghanistan? This article "Measuring success in Afghanistan" http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8524137.stm ...
... Thanks for the link. ... When I think of GDP+ metrics, I ask: * Does it measure the right thing? * What are the second-order effects? * How to accurately...
Is what is happening at the moment in Italy a form of futarchy? "Italian bonds rose, pushing down yields from euro-era records, as the nation was pressed to...
Just because government policy is influenced by a market price doesn't make it futarchy. ... Robin Hanson http://hanson.gmu.edu Res. Assoc., Future of...
"All I know is that I am not a Marxist." Karl Marx Marx was no longer in a position to explain what he meant when Marxist revolutions broke out. So we are in a...
