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-----Original Message-----
From: tbhawaiiowan@...
To: hrcfs-l@...; Aabaer@...; dameb001@...; HOONANEA@...
Sent: Fri, 9 Feb 2007 6:20 AM
Subject: Update: likely alt/renewable energy sources?
To all:
After sendng first draft of this email last night, I realized adding another excerpt from my HECO article mgiht make it this email more comprehensive.
TB
However, I think the 2006 legislation is still based primarily on the "hope" that consumers will somehow be able to compel HECO to import significantly less oil (which we use not only to fuel our vehicles, but--as stated above--also to produce most of our electricity) via improved oversight of HECO by the PUC, better public oversight of the PUC, and better consumer and/or producer tax incentives for using local renewable energy. Many think and hope the latter will include some combination of:
- wind energy (new and improved over previous failed local experiments),
- solar energy (both to reduce electricity use--like existing roof-top solar water heaters--and to generate photovoltaic electricity more cost-effectively),
- wave energy,
- geothermal energy (if past local political conflicts can be avoided)
- ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)--also new and improved over past local attempts,
- biomass energy (including possibly more daily residential garbage and agricultural waste, fuel "crops" such as sugarcane, other grass (eg switchgrass or eucalyptus) oilseed crops (eg palm oil), and/or perhaps "algae" farms--which may be much more land and fuel efficient than sugarcane), and
- hydrogen energy (probably produced from some combination of renewable and fossil fuels, at least initially).
Some proponents also think this type of import substitution would keep more energy profits in Hawaii while creating more jobs than it would eliminate, and would also reduce our vulnerability to supply disruptions even if world oil supplies remain plentiful.
Others think trying to forcibly reduce Hawaii’s oil addiction will simply drive local energy prices higher, and swap oil-related environmental problems for others associated with at least some forms of local renewable energy. For example, some fear that expanding local sugarcane production again--this time as a substitute fuel for imported oil--may require more energy than it creates, and might place unsustainable demands on future land and water supplies which, in turn, could offset any reduction in local electricity costs by increasing the cost of living in other ways (primarily housing). Some also think it would still be much easier (politically) and effective to simply further improve incentives and/or mandates to maximize efficient local use of electricity (as has already been proposed by the 2007 Hawaii legislature).
In any case, the fact remains that our electricity rates are already about double the national average, and many think--like global warming--that "peak" oil (i.e. the point at which global oil demand exceeds global oil supply) is already or will soon be a reality. The war in Iraq has also once again increased awareness that oil really may not be cheaper than local alternatives if all of the indirect political, military, economic, and environmental costs and risks of petroleum dependence--which we bear collectively--are not ignored. However, as long as HECO remains a for-profit monopoly, I think the clout consumers have will always be limited--even if they collectively become more willing to substantially reduce their electricity usage via more efficient use and/or pay more for local alternatives if necessary.
-----Original Message-----
From: tbhawaiiowan@...
To: hrcfs-l@...; Aabaer@...; dameb001@...
Sent: Thu, 8 Feb 2007 7:51 PM
Subject: Most likely alt/renewable energy sources?
In light of recent discussion on this list about cold fusion and microbial energy, I thought this excerpt from my most recent HECO customer buyout piece might also be of interest. All comments, questions, and criticisms are welcome.
Thanks,
Tom Brandt
Why advances in "distributed generation" a.k.a. "co-generation" may undermine the future viability of HECO as a for-profit business
Today’s centralized electricity generation and distribution system was designed by Edison in the 19th century, and could become antiquated--or at least necessary primarily for sharing more decentralized electricity production--in the 21st century due to some combination of technologies such as:
- Decentralized small-scale hydrogen fuel cells;
- micro-turbines;
- Combined heat and power (CHP) systems;
- light-emitting diodes (LEDs);
- residential-and/or neighborhood scale wind mills (which are now commercially available);
- urban roof-top gardens (that not only reduce energy use by reflecting heat, but which also can increase urban green space, absorb greenhouse gases, and increase local decentralized food production)
- new "smart" window and building materials with embedded computers capable of not only optimizing energy efficiency but also possibly generating electricity,
- photovoltaic "tape" or "strips" (which would be cheaper, more flexible, and more portable than existing photovoltaic panels), and even
- solar “paint”--which can already reduce electricity use for air conditioning by increasing rooftop heat reflectivity, and may soon be able to generate electricity photovoltaically using "nanotechnology" (i.e. molecular and atomic-scale engineered electrical generation).
Collectively known as “distributed generation” and/or “co-generation“, these are just some of the technologies which may make this possible, along with existing and new "passive" substitutes for electricity (e.g. roof-top solar hot water heating and state-of-the-art solar ovens) combined with increased use of existing and new more energy efficient technologies such as compact fluorescent lighting, "Energy Star" appliances, more efficient computers, and more widespread use of state-of-the-art "green" construction techniques.
For example, local firm Navatek recently filed for a patent on a wave energy device that can extract electric power over a wider range of wave sizes and frequencies than other wave power devices currently being tested or in operaton here and elsewhere around the world. Honolulu Seawater Air Conditioning--another relatively new firm--thinks it can dramatically reduce air conditioning costs, as well as imported oil dependency, in certain parts of Hawaii using OTEC technology. Both of these might also eventually be cost-effective on a more decentralized basis.
But other future innovations may dwarf these examples. Caterpillar and Fuel Cell Energy are developing ultra-low emission electric generating products for industrial and commercial use. Toshiba is developing a fuel cell to power laptop computers, and two major automobile manufacturers are developing residential-scale “home” fuel cell refueling systems to produce electricity for both transportation and home use. Hawaii-based firm Hoku Scientific is also developing and manufacturing fuel cell membranes and assemblies to generate electricity for stationary and automotive use.
Two National Science Foundation awardees also recently announced development of a small-scale fuel cell prototype that would eliminate the need for an extensive hydrogen distribution system. The hydrogen could be supplied in returnable tanks such as the propane tanks used for gas grills, and potentially connected and scaled up to compete with fuel cells now being tested in the auto industry. In an article published locally last year, a Michigan professor quoted a 2004 Technology Research News article which stated "an ethanol-to-hydrogen converter designed for home use would not be much bigger than a coffee mug."
Others are working on "microbial" fuel cells, which could be the future "holy grail" of "distributed" electricity generation. According to genomics pioneer Craig Venter--who was in Honolulu recently to discuss the latest developments in human, animal, and plant DNA sequencing--various types of microbes constitute somewhere between 60% and 90% of all the biomass (i.e. "life") on Earth, with the remaining minority being the plants and animals we can "see" with the naked eye. Venter also estimates at least half of these microbial lifeforms may be in the world's oceans. So I currently cannot imagine a more abundant, cheap, and decentralized source of energy if microbial fuel cells become reality.
But Venter also thinks it may be possible to:
- use photosynthesis in certain bacteria to directly make hydrogen,
- to make synthetic microbes that can capture carbon dioxide gas--a "global warming" by-product of fossil fuel use--and sequester it in sugars, proteins, or methane for possible recycling into non-polluting transportation fuel, and
- that making diesel fuel from algae may eventually be far more efficient than any other current or possible source of "bio-fuels."
Finally, even without all of these advances, Venter agrees with those who think Hawaii could be the first state in the nation to be completely independent from imported energy.
I think it is likely that commercial and industrial users--and hopefully Hawaii state and local governments (like the U.S military and the State of California)--will lead the way to widespread use of these technologies. Predicting penetration of the residential market may be more difficult because this may depend less on technological advances than the extent to which our politicians are willing and able to incentivize consumer independence from HECO, as well as the willingness of mortgage lenders to include the cost of these alternatives--if necessary--in new or refinanced home loans to spread the cost over the life of the mortgage. Perhaps HECO's parent company Hawaiian Electric Industries' (HEI) other major subsidiary--American Savings Bank--could lead the way on this.
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