Test Message #1

Space Weather News for Nov. 23, 2001
http://www.spaceweather.com

NORTHERN LIGHTS: A powerful solar explosion on Nov. 22nd hurled a
coronal
mass ejection (CME) into space and toward our planet -- possibly
joining
another CME already en route.  The expanding clouds could trigger
geomagnetic activity when they sweep past Earth on Nov. 24th and/or
25th.
High-latitude sky watchers are likely to see Northern Lights this
weekend,
especially during the hours around local midnight on Saturday and
Sunday.
Prospects for middle-latitude observers are less certain. Tune in to
SpaceWeather.com for details and updates.

LEONID METEORS: For those who saw it, last weekend's Leonid meteor
storm
was simply unforgettable.  Our growing photo gallery of the storm
includes
eye-catching photos of Leonid fireballs, exploding Leonids, even
Leonids
streaking through auroras. Check them out at SpaceWeather.com.

Good Morning,

Not as nice as the partial eclipse last Christmas, but here's some data
about the upcoming annular (partial in PA) eclipse from
http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse/OH/LC/LC2001.html#2001Dec14A .  If
it's clear, take a peak before heading to the AAAP Meeting that night.

Terry

Local Circumstances for Annular Solar Eclipse of 2001 December 14

Geographic Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Eclipse Begins:  21:12 UT   (16:12 EST)
Maximum  Eclipse: 21:54 UT at sunset
Eclipse Ends  -
Sun Altitude (Deg's): s  0
Sun Azimuth (Deg's): 240
Sun Magnitude:  0.296
Eclipse Obscurity: 0.182
Duration Annularity: -

Dear Members,

I have just complete my annual calculations of lunar occultations. This time,
I decided to make the calculations for the year 2002! I will have a one sheet
recap, with about 86 of the brightest occultations, available at the upcoming
meetings. If you would like a more extensive listing (for scope sizes up to
20-inch), please let me know. Just answer the following two questions:

1.  Scope Size
     a.  occultations visible with ______ inch scope
     b.  the brightest 86 occultations
     c.  I have no limit to the size of scope available. I use the Keck and/or
HST.

2.  Format of Calculations
     a.  paper copy (available only for 12-inch scopes). Must pick up at
meeting.
     b.  text file (.TXT), suitable for immediate printing
     c.  comma separated file (.CSV), suitable for further manipulation with
database or spreadsheet before printing
     d.  subliminal or telepathic (saves on paper)

Note that options 2.b and 2.c require the capability to receive e-mails with
attachments.

John Holtz
JWHoltz@...
724-352-7596

"Somewhere under the stars there is work that only you were meant to do.
Never rest until you have found it."  John Brashear

Hey,

Check out the new Kiski Astronomers WebSite:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/kiskiastronomers.  We've even got a few photos
out there now.  (John, Denny donated your All-Sky photo.  If that's not OK,
please let me know.)

If you have photos you'd like to include on our new WebSite, please E-Mail
them to me.  I can also scan prints into .,jpg format.  Just give me your
prints at a club meeting.

Terry

Hi,

OK, now check out our Kiski WebSite bookmarks.  If you have any you'd like
me to add, please be sure to send them along.

Terry

from the AmAstro ListServer

      This is just a heads-up about a supernova found in the bright galaxy
NGC 5033.  At the moment it is reported to be faint, but if it turns out
to be a type Ia event, then it could get up to mag. 12 or so.  The
designation is SN 2001gd, location is:  13 13 23.9  +36 38 18 (2000),
which is 3'.4 north-northwest of the galaxy center.  Obviously this is a
predawn object.  Magnitudes given on IAUC 7761 indicate mag. 16.5 to 17.5,
but if this is really a supernova, then it has to get up to at least mag. 13
and possibly brighter.
      Like a lot of supernovae, this was found by an amateur.

\Brian

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I would be interested in occultations for an 8" scope.  A text file would be
fine.  Since my lobotomy my telepathic abilities have been marginal at best.


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

NASA Science News for November 26, 2001

For centuries scientists have regarded reports of sounds from meteors with
skepticism.  Edmund Halley himself in the 18th century said they were
little more than "pure fantasy."   Yet earlier this month plenty of sky
watchers heard strange hissing and sizzling noises during the Leonid
meteor storm.  Was it a hallucination?  Read this story and find out!

FULL STORY at

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast26nov_1.htm?list626885

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 01/47
ISSUED AT 30/0039Z NOVEMBER 2001
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM 1-2 DECEMBER 2001

A partial halo CME observed in association with an M6-flare
at 1635UT on 28 November is expected to impact the Earth on
1 December and produce mildly elevated levels of geomagnetic
activity. This CME appears to be only partly earthward directed.

-------------------------------------------------------------
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
01 Dec:  Unsettled to active levels with possible minor storm periods.
02 Dec:  Unsettled to active

Some info forwarded from the RASC ListServer...

Terry


**********************
FYI, here are my favourite links for weather satellite maps:

Continent wide

Visible  http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/latest_US_vis.jpg
IR       http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/latest_US_irbw.jpg

For those of you in [western Pennsylvania], here's a good close-up:

Visible  http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/latest_DTW_vis.jpg
IR       http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/latest_DTW_irbw.jpg


Michael Watson

From Solar Terrestrial Dispatch, Alberta, Canada


                    /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                      POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

                      ISSUED: 05:30 UTC, 02 DECEMBER 2001

                    /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

SYNOPSIS:

      There are two primary areas of concern with respect to major flare
potential. These areas are discussed below.

      Region 9714 is departing the west limb and may contain sufficient
magnetic complexity to release a major flare before x-ray occultation occurs
in several days. A quantitative analysis of the complexity of this region is
not possible due to limb proximity.

      An active spot group currently just behind the southeast solar limb has
demonstrated an ability to produce near major-level x-ray bursts. A class
M4.79 long-duration x-ray event was observed at 15:56 UTC on 01 December
from
this area. Significant flare loops were observed in EIT imagery behind the
southeast limb. A post-event loop prominence system was also observed in
H-alpha imagery. The source of this activity is suspected to be old active
Region 9690, which has demonstrated an ability to be a fairly prolific flare
producer in the past. Major flaring will be possible over the next two weeks
from this active region. It should rotate into view within the next few
days.

      Of slightly lesser concern is Region 9715, which *may* also be capable
of producing an isolated major flare. Magnetic complexity in this spot group
has diminished since 29 November. Nevertheless, the dynamics may still
support the production of a major flare.


                    /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

Hi everyone:

There's a nice article about astronomy and AAAP in todays Focus magazine of
the Trib. If you don't get this Sunday paper you may want to go buy one or
have someone save you the article if you have a relative that gets it.

Bob

Friends,

I just updated my "Occultation Update Webpage" with a chart and more details
for Monday night's occultation by the asteroid 260 Huberta. In brief,

Date: 2001 Dec 4 UT
Time: 1:00 UT (Dec 3 @ 8:00 EST)
Asteroid: 260 Huberta
Star: ---
Star Mag.: 11.6
Occultation Mag. Drop: 3.3
Occultation Duration: 5 seconds

A finder chart can be found from my occultation update page,
http://members.aol.com/jwholtz/occult/occultupdate.htm

John Holtz
JWHoltz@...
phone: 724-352-7596
home page: http://members.aol.com/jwholtz/

"People who never look up avoid the cow manure, but that's all they ever get
to see."

NOAA 9727, S20W21 (Solar X = 329", Solar Y = -329") at 12/10/18:00 UT,
has continued to develop with significant opposite polarity flux emergence
adjacent to its large leader sunspot. Magnetic classification is
beta-gamma-delta. C- and M-class events are certain with the chance of an
X-class event as well.  See www.bbso.njit.edu/arm/latest for further
details and www.bbso.njit.edu/cgi-bin/LatestImages for additional images.

WM, BBSO/NJIT and PG, Emergent IT/NASA GSFC

but weak...

Terry

***********************************************************


                           Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                             http://www.spacew.com

                                14 December 2001

                       MAJOR CLASS X6.2 SOLAR FLARE ALERT


MAJOR CLASS X6.2 SOLAR FLARE ALERT

      A major X-class solar flare was observed on 13 December from active
sunspot region 9733. The solar flare briefly caused the Sun to become over
500 times brighter than normal in the light of x-rays. It reached a class
X6.2 x-ray intensity at 14:30 UTC.

      Although the peak x-ray flux of this solar flare was very respectable,
the overall energy output of the event was a bit more average and less
impressive for such a strong x-ray flare. A partial halo (partially
Earth-directed) coronal mass ejection was observed by the Solar and
Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft. The plane-of-sky velocity of
this
ejected mass was clocked at approximately 535 kilometers per second (almost
2
million kilometers per hour or about 1.2 million miles per hour).

      It is possible some of the ejected mass from this disturbance could
impact the Earth late on 15 December or early on 16 December (UTC time - or
anytime after approximately 1 pm on 15 December EST). The impact of this
particular coronal mass ejection is not expected to produce any significant
global outbreaks of auroral activity ("northern lights"). However, there is
a
fair chance some diligent dark-sky middle latitude observers might spot
periods of activity after the disturbance reaches the Earth. Observed
activity will probably be somewhat infrequent and isolated or localized.

      Observers interested in watching for auroral activity should keep in
mind that most of the activity will probably be more of a quiescent nature
(diffuse glows, less active arcs, perhaps infrequent rays, etc) and may have
less color distribution (less reds and more greens or whites) than occurs
during larger disturbances. The anticipated lack of deeper reds (which occur
higher in altitude and are therefore visible to greater distances) will
probably also limit the observational extent of activity to the more
northerly middle latitude regions - if activity manifests itself at all.

      Camera's are excellent tools for capturing things that are too dim to
be
seen with the naked eye. For those who do not observe any significant
activity, try exposing some film (ASA 400 to 800) during the local late
evening or early morning hours (near local midnight). The near-new phase of
the moon presents an excellent opportunity for longer-duration exposures
that
may capture faint auroral colors on the horizon. Try to orient yourself in
such a way that the northern horizon is as free of light pollution from
local
cities or towns as possible. Try different exposures (anywhere from 5 or 10
seconds up to a minute or more if you are in a very dark location). You may
be surprised what shows up on the film!

      Additional major solar flares are possible from this active sunspot
complex over the next week. In addition, there is a new active sunspot
complex that has produced a strong minor solar flare from just behind the
northeast limb of the Sun. This new active sunspot complex has not yet
rotated into view, but is expected to do so over the next few days. The
arrival of this new sunspot region may further enhance the potential for
additional major energetic solar flares over the next week or two.

      For current estimates of predicted coronal mass ejection impacts, feel
free to visit: http://www.spacew.com/cme .

from the RASC ListServer...

The table of meteor showers in 2002 on page 206 of the Observer's Handbook
2002 contains incorrect Moon percentage illumination entries. Corrected
figures are available at:

         http://www.rasc.ca/handbook/2002/HB02page206.html.

Approximate circumstances of the Moon for the meteor showers in 2002 can
also be read from the Sky Month by Month section on pp. 69 - 91.

Rajiv Gupta
Editor, Observer's Handbook

from the "star" of "Comet Odyssey"...

Terry

***********************
Hi Y'all,

I was a friends place in Tucson when he received notice of a 17th
magnitude comet discovered by NEAT (enough LINEAR already!). At it's
brightest in 2004 it may reach 0 magnitude, of course this is a wild
guess. If I recall correctly the comet will be 0.3 AU away at it's
closest approach to Earth.

I remember hearing about comet Hyakutake only three months prior to it's
closest approach, 0.1 AU, in '96. Deciding to do a major shoot in
Arizona of that comet was a last minute decision, not much time for
planning. One interesting by product of the digital patrols is the big
heads up we now get for the apparition. Sure comet Hale-Bopp was
discovered almost three years prior to it's apparition in '95, but it
was intrinsically blindingly bright even at the distance of Jupiter's
orbit.

Well I am back at the Sunglow Ranch after dinner with David Levy and
friends in Tucson. It is snowing and cold... I left Canada for this????
There is a promise of a clear night Sunday though. Although astronomy
can be a real pain in the a.., having RASC members and other
astro-buddies out here to visit on cloudy nights makes up for it.

Peter

Hi,

Here's a bit more on that potentially very bright comet:  2001 Q4 NEAT.
Predicted to max during May, 2004

Terry

"Does anti-matter fall up?"

Sorry for the multiplicity of E-Mails, but I just determined that Sky Map
Pro puts 2001 Q4 NEAT at mag 1.6 near the Beehive (M-44) on May 16, 2004.
Of course there's a lot of refining of orbits and brightness estimates to do
over the next 2.5 years.

Terry

My webpage has finder charts for three upcoming asteroidal occultations. All
three, especially the Jan 12 event, are predicted to occur in our area
(meaning the odds are slightly greater that the event is visible from
somewhere in the region). Please visit my webpage at
members.aol.com/jwholtz/occult/occultupdate.htm for more details.

In briefe, there are the events:

2001 Dec 24 @ 3:28 UT (Dec 23 @ 10:28 pm EST) 11.6 magnitude star will be
occulted by asteroid 1031 Arctica. The magnitude drop is expected to be 2.5
for up to 6 seconds.

2001 Dec 31 @ 6:39 UT (Dec 31 @ 1:39 am EST) 11.1 magnitude star will be
occulted by asteroid 1639 Bower. The magnitude drop is expected to be 2.6 for
up to 4 seconds.

2002 Jan 12 @ 2:50 UT (Jan 11 @ 9:50 pm EST) 10.4 magnitude star will be
occulted by asteroid 74 Galatea. The magnitude drop is expected to be 2.9 for
up to 4 seconds.

John Holtz
JWHoltz@...
phone: 724-352-7596
home page: http://members.aol.com/jwholtz/

"People who never look up avoid the cow manure, but that's all they ever get
to see."

Hi,

The 1st Draft of the Laurel Highlands Star Cruise Program Schedule is now on
the Star Cruise WebSite (www.lhstarcruise.org).  Even as full as the
schedule is, there are actually a couple more activities still to add.

Some misc. notes:

1.  As you may already know, we will be open for campers on
     both Monday and Tuesday this year, but will not be offering
     any programs those days.

2.  Last year we took a chance and expanded our program
      schedule to Thursday.  People came.  This year we are
      taking another chance and expanding it to Wednesday.
      Hopefully people will again come.  Jeff Ball, from southern
      West Virginia has already E-Mailed his excitement about
      our expanded program including Wednesday.  He likes long
      events to better his weather prospects at a dark-sky site.
      Wait till he sees we're open Monday and Tuesday as well!

3.  Most of the schedule is confirmed, however a few speakers
      have yet to respond:

      Unconfirmed Speakers - Not that they've turned us down, we
      just haven't heard back yet.  Larry has included them on the
      Website so you can see how complete with topics the
      schedule is:
           John Holtz
           Mark Stauffer
           Chuck Kollar
           Dave Conte
           Mark Arelt
           Wade Barbin - Scope Clinic (I haven't called him yet)

      Someone form the Carnegie Science Center/Buhl Planetarium
      is presenting, but we're not yet sure who or what.  So, you
      see "CSC/Buhl" in the schedule.

4.  A word about our 2 "long-distance" presenters:

      Dave Healy will be coming from Sierra Vista, Arizona.  He will
      present on his new automated 32" equatorial reflector that he
      will use to continue his discovery of new asteroids (he's
      gathered more than 60 already).  He will also present
      "Astrophotography and Murphy's Law" a talk previously given at
      the Texas Star Party.  You may remember the April, 2000 issue
      of Astronomy Magazine, the "Dave Healy Issue" which included
      4 astrophotography articles by Dave.

      Maurizio DiSciullo is coming from Coconut Creek, Florida.  He
      is one of the top 4 or 5 astrophotographers in the world.  He will
      do a 2 hour presentation.  Check out a sampling of his work
      (with essentially a 10" scope) at:
      http://www.starlight-xpress.co.uk/gallery/   Unbelievable.  And,
      also unbelievable, we got him indirectly thru Al Sparber, the
      owner of the Pinehill Campground.  Al bumped into Jack Newton
      in Florida and gave Jack's phone number to Ed Moss. I called
      Jack and asked him to speak, but he was unavailable.  I asked
      if he had Don Parker's phone number and thus was able to call
      Don.  Don says he's cutting back on star party appearances, but
      gave me Maurizio's number and he excitedly accepted.  We will
      get an updated, improved version of Maurizio's 1998 Stellafane
      presentation.  He said it was great then and is even better now.

5.  You'll notice there are kind-of "themes" to the various days with
      Wednesday being the "How to Observe" day, Thursday being
      the "How to Record Images" day, and Friday and Saturday
      being primarily devoted to professional astronomer
      presentations.

Please let me know what you think about the schedule.  And as always, if you
see any typos or errors, please inform me or Larry McHenry (lsmch@...)
ASAP.

Happy Holidays and thank you..

Terry

Dear Groups,

I was checking on the updates for the upcoming asteroidal occultations when I
noticed that I had made a mistake for one of the events. The Dec 31
occultation by Bower occurs at 6:04 UT, not 6:39 UT as previously indicated.
I have corrected my website as well.

members.aol.com/jwholtz/occult/occultupdate.htm

The corrected information is
2001 Dec 31 @ 6:04 UT (Dec 31 @ 1:04 am EST) 11.1 magnitude star will be
occulted by asteroid 1639 Bower. The magnitude drop is expected to be 2.6 for
up to 4 seconds.


John Holtz
JWHoltz@...
phone: 724-352-7596
home page: http://members.aol.com/jwholtz/

"People who never look up avoid the cow manure, but that's all they ever get
to see."


In a message dated 12/20/01 11:42:07 PM Eastern Standard Time,
JWHoltz@... writes:

> 2001 Dec 31 @ 6:39 UT (Dec 31 @ 1:39 am EST) 11.1 magnitude star will be
>  occulted by asteroid 1639 Bower. The magnitude drop is expected to be 2.6
> for  up to 4 seconds.

Space Weather News for Dec. 26, 2001
http://www.spaceweather.com

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING:  An explosion on the Sun today triggered a
solar proton storm around our planet and hurled a bright coronal mass
ejection (CME) into space.  Although the fast-moving (~1100 km/s) CME was
not squarely Earth-directed, it could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's
magnetosphere as early as Dec. 28th Universal Time -- that is, Thursday
night for North Americans, Friday morning for Europeans. NOAA forecasters
estimate a 10% chance of severe geomagnetic storms at middle latitudes
when the expanding cloud sweeps past Earth.  Sky watchers along the
northern tier of US states (and similar latitudes) should be alert for
auroras during the nights ahead.

For those with java enabled browsers the applet on this page shows the orbit
of this asteroid.
http://skys.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/skymorph/neo.pl?Name=2001YB5&Epoch=2001121
7.0&M=343.41445&e=0.8646404&a=2.3763131&Peri=114.38771&Node=109.26638&Incl=5
.49212&Eqnx=2000.0

Brian Skiff wrote:
>
>      There'll probably be some news in the coming day or so about 2001
YB5,
> which was discovered Xmas night by the NEAT team.  In the coming ten days
> it will pass within about twice the moon's distance, brightening to
> mag. 12 in the process.  At closest approach it will be moving at an
> instantaneous rate of about 150 degrees/day!  This will definitely be best
> for southern-hemisphere observers, although the beginnings of the very
> close approach will be visible in the predawn sky from the north.
>      The current elements and ephemeris are here:
>
> http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/mpec/K01/K01Y51.html
>
> Note that because of the short observational arc and beacuse it is heading
> right for us, the ephemeris is likely to change dramatically in the coming
> few days.  Closest approach is nominally for 2002 Jan 7.2 UT.  Note in the
> current ephemeris that because of phase effects, by Jan 7.9 UT the
> asteroid will have faded to mag. 25, whereas 16h earlier it is mag. 12.
>
> \Brian
>
>

Clear skies,
  John N. Gretchen III
  Port O'Connor, Texas
  http://www.tisd.net/~jng3/stars/ [updated 12/16/01]

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forwarded by Terry...

Amazon currently has the Cambridge Star Atlas (hardback) for $7.48.
That's 70% off retail.

Access through  http://www.skymaps.com

Tom Nagy

As if getting an astronomical item as a Christmas present wasn't enough to
keep it cloudy for weeks...

From: STD:


                 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                      ISSUED: 22:00 UTC, 30 DECEMBER 2001

                 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 *** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE ACTIVITY EXISTS ***


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY (6 pm EST on 30 December)
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 31 DECEMBER

     HIGH RISK PERIOD: 30 - 31 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 30 - 31 DECEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 20, 12, 12 (30 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
                                     MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

    NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL
    MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK
    STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

    NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME
    NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO
    LATVIA TO NORTHERN USSR. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT
    PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.


SYNOPSIS...

      A moderately strong interplanetary disturbance impacted the Earth near
20:10 UTC on 30 December. Although no significant auroral storming has
developed thus far, conditions could easily become favorable enough for some
auroral storming to commence. We expect some middle latitude dark-sky
regions
may spot periods of auroral activity over the next 12 hours. There is also a
chance activity may intensify sufficiently to be observed over more
widespread middle latitude regions.

      This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 31 December. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.

               PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                   http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

**  End of Warning  **

From: STD
                 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                      POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

                      ISSUED: 22:00 UTC, 30 DECEMBER 2001

                 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                (See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)

   VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
          VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC 31 DEC

     HIGH RISK PERIOD: 30 - 31 DEC (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 30 - 31 DEC

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR
       POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR - MAJOR

       POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  APPROX 12 TO 24 HOURS
             DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY:  12 TO 18 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  6
       POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  6

   EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX:  4-5
         EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX:  5

    POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  LOW
         POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
           EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE
         POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR - MAJOR
           EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD TO FAIR

   POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
         POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR - MAJOR
           EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  FAIR TO VERY POOR

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 50%


---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT       EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
        SEVERE STORM : 10 %                 LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
         MAJOR STORM : 20 %              MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR
         MINOR STORM : 40 %                HIGH LATITUDES : MAJOR
      ACTIVE OR LESS : 30 %               POLAR LATITUDES : MAJOR
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
  PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 75%    ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR - MAJOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 35
                    ----           ---------------

COMMENTS:

      This is not expected to be a particularly strong event. It is expected
to be dominated by active conditions with periods of intermixed minor to
major storming over the higher latitudes.


**  End of Warning  **

From: STD
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                      POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

                       ISSUED: 19:00 UTC, 02 JANUARY 2002

                    /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

SYNOPSIS:

      Active sunspot Region 9767 contains a large neutral-line filament that
has been extraordinarily active over the last 24 hours. There have been
numerous subflares and one M-class flare today that involved this active
filament (and a concurrent event in Region 9754). Although Region 9767
itself
is modestly large, only the trailer portion of the spot group appears to
have
moderate to strong magnetic complexity. There appear to be some areas of
high
magnetic gradients and there are undoubtably some levels of at least
moderate
magnetic shear present. This active region probably wouldn't be considered
capable of producing significant X-class flare activity except for the fact
that it appears to have been responsible for the powerful X-class flare of
28
December. However, it may have suffered decay prior to its rotating into
view. Nevertheless, the thought that this region was probably responsible
for
the X-class flare of 28 December lends more significant weight to its flare
potential.

      Given these factors and the recent observations of significant
neutral-line filament motions raises concerns that another major M or
X-class
solar flare (possibly a proton-bearing event) may soon erupt from this
active
region. The spot complex is now located near E40 and is becoming
increasingly
capable of producing prompt increases in high-energy proton densities in the
near-Earth space environment. Coronal mass ejections from this spot complex
will also have a much higher probability of impacting the Earth as time
passes during the next several days.

      We believe there is a notable probability of a significant major solar
flare from Region 9767 over the next 24 to 72 hours, particularly if the
instabilities evident persist.

forwarded by Terry...

Did you hear about our comprehensive Star Party listing on the web?
Check it out: http://chartmarker.tripod.com.

We pulled together all the star party listings we could find from the
many sources on the web and put them into one list.  Then we added a
link to the Star Party web page.  Please pass the news to your members.

We had one gentleman respond with his pleasure at seeing our list.  He
plans his family vacations so he can stop at nearby star parties.  We’re
sure many other amateur astronomers do the same.

...

Pat and Arleen Heimann
Chartmarkers and More