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Oil's march to $100 marks tipping point
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
January 3, 2008 at 12:34 AM EST
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080102.r-oil-economy031
/BNStory/Front/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20080102.r-oil-economy031

Oil prices rose to $100 (U.S.) a barrel yesterday, reaching that key
symbolic barrier for the first time.

The shift into triple digits was prompted by a mix of international
developments: violence in oil-exporting Nigeria and Algeria, a slump in the
U.S. dollar and a warning that the OPEC oil cartel may eventually fall
short of supplying its share of global demand.

Rising tensions in Pakistan, Kenya and North Korea, and colder weather in
the northeastern United States also helped push up prices.

The price stayed at $100 only briefly - crude futures contracts for
February delivery finished yesterday's session at a new closing high of
$99.62, up $3.64.


Still, elevated crude prices have more than just psychological
significance: They could light a fire under Canada's already red-hot oil
patch, while putting a dent in economies around the world.

Sustained oil prices in the $100 range could be particularly damaging at a
time when the United States is reeling from a housing-induced decline,
economists said yesterday.

While the upward march of oil prices past $70, $80 and $90 a barrel
generated remarkably minor tremors, the $100 mark could be a tipping point.

"The big surprise so far has been that the quintupling of oil prices in
the past five years hasn't had a bigger impact," said Nariman Behravesh,
chief economist with Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Mass.

In a low-inflation, high-competition world, industries such as airlines
could cut costs elsewhere to absorb higher fuel prices, he said. Central
banks also have helped keep inflation in check, and cheaper
Asian-manufactured goods have put downward pressure on prices.

The concern now is that the U.S. economy is already suffering, so
businesses are much more likely to be hurt by sustained high oil prices,
Mr. Behravesh said.

"In the case of the U.S. especially, but increasingly in other parts of
the global economy, as things slow down, the damage from $100 oil will be
greater than when growth was more rapid," he said.

"When growth is 3 to 3.5 per cent, the economy can shrug off $100 oil.
When growth is 1.5 per cent, that's a very different story."

Economists are expecting the United States to report growth of just over 1
per cent for the fourth quarter of 2007, and only about 0.5 per cent in the
first quarter of 2008. European economic growth isn't expected to be as
weak.

As a result of slowing economies around the world, "$100 oil could begin
to do some serious damage," Mr. Behravesh said.

Patricia Croft, chief economist at Phillips Hager & North Investment
Management Ltd., said her biggest worry is how much high oil prices will
push up inflation.

Inflationary pressures began to show up globally in 2007 because of energy
prices, she said, and this trend is "keeping central banks on edge."

She, too, was surprised that the global economy has been so resilient as
oil prices rose.

In theory, demand for energy should have declined as prices rose, but that
did not happen. One reason is that energy consumers have become more
efficient in their use of oil.

Another mitigating factor was that countries such as China and India have
been heavily subsidizing domestic oil purchases, Ms. Croft said. But this
could change if prices stay above $100.

And if higher consumer product prices - boosted by higher energy costs
- slow the U.S. economy, watch for reverberations in Canada and around
the world, she said.

"In the U.S., in particular, consumers face declining house prices, a
softening labour market, and now high food and energy prices. [Higher oil]
could be part of the mix that creates the long-awaited slowdown in consumer
spending."

Canada was protected from the U.S. decline as long as the pain was confined
to the housing sector. But if it spreads more broadly, there will be
effects on this side of the border, particularly in Eastern Canada where
the high Canadian dollar has already hit manufacturers.

Bart Melek, global commodity strategist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, said
Canadians should be prepared for the surge in crude to translate into
higher prices. But he also noted that high oil prices will likely support
the Canadian dollar.

The average national cost for a litre of gasoline reached $1.07 (Canadian)
in the week ended Dec. 31, according to a regular survey from Calgary-based
MJ Ervin & Associates Inc. A year earlier, when crude oil was trading at
$61 (U.S.), the average retail price at Canadian pumps was 92.3 cents a
litre.

Cathy Hay, a senior associate at MJ Ervin, said a dollar rise in crude
prices boosts Canadian pump prices by about six-tenths of a cent. "So
while today's gains are profound on the global crude markets, the impact at
the pump in Canada is not particularly noteworthy."

• during the past 150 years, humans have directly impacted and altered close to 47% of the global land area 
• under one bleak scenario, biodiversity will be threatened on almost 72% of Earth's land area by 2032 
• 48% of South East Asia, the Congo Basin, and parts of the Amazon will likely be converted to agricultural land, plantations and urban areas -- compared with 22% today, suggesting wide depletions of biodiversity 
• starting some 45,000 years ago a high proportion of larger land animals became extinct in North America, Australia, the Caribbean, and elsewhere, coinciding with human arrival

 All are invited.

We meet on the first Sunday of every month and on the last Friday of the month unless the day is on or close to a major holiday.

Hope to see you there. For more information about Cofound see:  http://cofound. blogspot. com/

Please make a purchase at the City Café in respect of the owners who are granting us this space to gather. Coffee, tea, soft drinks, appetizers, desserts, and dinners are available. One need not purchase a dinner. Eating during conversation is ok.

For more information contact John at 502-560-0085 or johart@....

____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________

Louisville Peak Oil Group

Saturday, January 12, 2008 Meeting

Our purpose is to study for ourselves and to educate others to the realities and consequences of the Peak Oil crisis. We also plan choices and lifestyles to maximize the current and future quality of life for ourselves and our children.

Saturday, January12, 2008 at 9:00 AM

Where:

Board Room, Louisville FP Library Main Branch
301 York St .
Louisville , KY 40202
(502)574-1611

Info: George Perkins 425-6645

gg_perk@bellsouth. net
www.louisvillepeakoil.org 

---

To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
From: oakesme@...
Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 20:39:54 +0000
Subject: [energyresources] UK's coal output falls to pre-industrial levels

Independent Newspaper:
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3331373.ece

By Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor
Published: 12 January 2008
Coal production in Britain has fallen to its lowest level since the
industrial revolution, according to data from the Office for National
Statistics.

The ONS's index of production showed that the coal industry recorded
its worst ever reading in October, at 42.9 (with 2003 representing
the base index level of 100). Annual production is set to fall below
15 million tonnes, a level last seen 200 years ago. Production peaked
in 1913 at 287 million tons. The ONS said that UK electricity
generators have been turning to coal as the price of natural gas has
climbed even more steeply, but that demand has been met by imports
from Russia, Australia and elsewhere. Foreign coal accounts for two
thirds of UK consumption....

Max
UK
4�‹05.7'W 54�‹04'N

Consumers should brace for a 50 percent jump in oil prices in the near
future as global oil supply will increasingly have trouble keeping
pace with demand, forecasts a new energy report from CIBC World Markets.

The report predicts that surging demand in developing economies,
combined with accelerated depletion of existing supply and widespread
delays in getting new oil fields up and running, will see the global
supply of oil fall as much as 8 million barrels a day below
International Energy Agency estimates by 2012.

"Those projections ignore two fundamental forces that have, in recent
years, brought global production to a virtual standstill," said Jeff
Rubin, chief strategist and chief economist at CIBC World Markets.
"The first is depletion. You have to run faster to stand still.
Depletion from existing fields has accelerated to over four per cent,
a rate that currently cuts nearly four million barrels per day out of
each year's production.

"The second fundamental force blowing up supply forecasts is the huge
project delays and massive cost overruns associated with many of the
world's largest new oil mega-projects. From Kazakhstan to Nigeria's
Delta region, protracted delays in some of the world's largest energy
mega-projects will have huge impacts on actual supply growth over the
next five years."

http://www.energycurrent.com/index.php?id=4&storyid=8051

---

To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
From: joedoves@...
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2008 14:44:22 +0000
Subject: [energyresources] CERA-Oil declines---biofuel and natural gas to take up slack

WSJ
By NEIL KING JR.
January 17, 2008; Page A4

Output from the world's existing oil fields is declining at a rate of
about 4.5% annually, a new study concludes, depriving the world of
the same amount of oil that No. 4 producer Iran supplies in a year.

Yet the study's authors, Boston-based Cambridge Energy Research
Associates, argue that their assessment supports a generally rosy
view of the industry's future, given that new projects in the works
will make up for the decline.

Set for release today, the study, based on data from 811 fields
around the world, takes aim at a growing school of thought that the
world's oil production may soon hit its peak just as demand is
surging in Asia and the Middle East.

"This study supports a view that there is no impending short-term
peak in global oil production," the paper concludes. CERA, led by oil
historian Daniel Yergin, is a prominent adviser to oil companies.

Oil-field depletion rates are a key barometer of the health of the
world's oil market, and thus are hotly debated among factions feuding
over the relative stability of future supply. That debate is made all
the more intense because analysts have limited access to reliable
data on field-by-field production rates from key suppliers such as
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

Decline rates are also closely watched because the world remains
heavily reliant on output from regions and individual fields that
have been producing for decades. Some of the biggest fields in the
North Sea, Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico are declining at rates
approaching 18% a year.

WSJ's Neil King discusses a study that says the productivity is
sliding at the world's existing oil fields, and whether oil
productivity has peaked.

The CERA study, however, asserts that fewer than half of the fields
scrutinized were in decline. The study also argues that decline rates
overall aren't accelerating, as some in the industry insist.

Mr. Yergin said that the huge number of projects under way in Brazil,
Saudi Arabia, West Africa, the Caspian Sea and the Gulf of Mexico
will more than make up for natural declines from fields now in
production.

"This is a daily, hourly and minute-by-minute challenge for the
world's oil industry," he said. "But for every Iran you are losing,
you are gaining almost two Irans in return."

Long-term concern over supplies has contributed to a surge in oil
prices in the past four years. In New York yesterday, crude futures
fell $1.06 a barrel, or 1.2%, to $90.84, but are up 74% in the past
52 weeks.

The study strikes a more optimistic tone than do many heavy hitters
in the industry. Andrew Gould, the longtime chief executive of oil-
services titan Schlumberger Ltd., has estimated that the industry's
average decline rate is closer to 8% a year and growing. Christophe
de Margerie, the CEO of French oil company Total SA, warned in
October that many existing oil fields are being depleted at rates
that will do them lasting harm.

Veteran Houston-based energy banker Matthew Simmons says that few in
the industry believe that the global oil-decline rate is below 5% a
year, but the lack of clear data is a problem that haunts the
industry.

"If we can get field-by-field data for the last five years for the
top 250 oil fields, we could answer this once and for all," says Mr.
Simmons, who has argued the world faces a decline in oil
production. "But the big producers in OPEC and Russia are not about
to give those up."

CERA has drawn fire among skeptics for being one of the most
optimistic forecasters in the industry. The company predicted in June
that world oil production, now at just above 85 million barrels a
day, could hit 112 million barrels a day by 2017.

The task of reaching that mark appears daunting. According to CERA's
own rate of decline, the world's existing fields by 2017 will be
producing about 33 million fewer barrels a day than they are now. So
hitting a production level of 112 million barrels a day within a
decade would require adding 59 million barrels a day in new capacity —
or more than six times today's daily output from Saudi Arabia, the
world's largest oil exporter.

CERA argues that nearly half of that output will come from
nonconventional sources such as biofuels and natural-gas liquids.

"However you spin it, a 4.5% decline rate is a very sobering fact,"
says Thomas Petrie, a veteran Denver-based oil banker and Merrill
Lynch & Co. vice president. "People are running hard to find new
sources of oil, and that's just to keep even. When was the last time
we discovered another Iran?"

On top of making up for natural productivity declines, the
International Energy Agency yesterday predicted that global demand
for energy will jump 2.3% this year, to 87.8 million barrels a day.
Asia alone, the IEA says, will require a million barrels a day more
by the end of the year than it did in December 2007.

DOOMSDAY DEFERRED?

• What's New: A study says the world's oil fields have a depletion
rate of about 4.5%, equaling a loss of nearly four million barrels a
day this year.

• The Positive: But the study's authors argue that new projects will
offset the losses.

• The Question: Depletion rates are a key issue in the debate over
whether the world is nearing peak oil production.

Write to Neil King Jr. at neil.king@wsj.com

---

To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
From: aelewis@...
Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 03:35:11 +0000
Subject: [energyresources] New website: ClimateDebateDaily.com

Co-founded by the proprietor of Arts & Letters Daily (which
itself is well-worth regular visits: http://www.aldaily.com )

http://climatedebatedaily.com/

Climate Debate Daily is intended to deepen our understanding of
disputes over climate change and the human contribution to it. The
site links to scientific articles, news stories, economic studies,
polemics, historical articles, PR releases, editorials, feature
commentaries, and blog entries. The main column on the left includes
arguments and evidence generally in support of the IPCC position on
the reality of signficant anthropogenic global warming. The right-
hand column includes material skeptical of the IPCC position and the
notion that anthropogenic global warming represents a genuine threat
to humanity.

Many sites on the Internet, including some of those listed at the
far left of the page, take firm views for or against the threat of
anthropogenic global warming. As a matter of editorial policy,
Climate Debate Daily maintains a studied neutrality, allowing each
side to present its most powerful and persuasive case. Our object is
to allow readers to form their own judgments based on the best
available information.

Climate Debate Daily will offer new material toward to tops of its
main columns most days of the week. Occasionally, the page may
remain unchanged over a day or two. Items in the columns will also
be reordered now and again, to keep what are in the editors'
estimation more important items on the page for longer periods. Many
links, especially those to news periodicals, have limited shelf
life, and we urge readers to save or print out contributions they
regard as important. Although links will go eventually into an
archive page, we retain no copies of material linked to here.

We welcome reader suggestions for links to include on Climate Debate
Daily. Please send them here. On questions of what ultimately goes
onto the page, the editors' decisions are final.

Editors: Denis Dutton and Douglas Campbell

Denis Dutton is an Associate Professor of Philosophy at the
University of Canterbury in New Zealand. He founded and edits the
Johns Hopkins Univeristy Press journal, Philosophy and Literature,
and the well-known website, Arts & Letters Daily. At the University
of Canterbury he has recently introduced a new course on the
distinction between science and pseudoscience. Dr. Dutton is
skeptical about the degree to which human activity has contributed
to the general warming trend that began in the 1880s. He adds,
however: "Working at the university where Karl Popper taught in the
1930s and 40s, I am more than a little aware of the way that good
scientific hypotheses must always be open to falsification. The best
way for science and public policy to proceed is to keep assessing
evidence pro and con for anthropogenic global warming. That is the
idea behind Climate Debate Daily." Denis Dutton's personal website
is here.

Douglas Campbell is currently completing a Ph.D in philosophy at the
University of Arizona while teaching philosophy at the University of
Canterbury in New Zealand. He has degrees in computer science and
biology, and has worked as a wildlife ranger with endangered
species. His areas of philosophical expertise include logic and the
philosophy of science. He is impressed by the breadth and depth of
the scientific evidence supporting the theory of anthropogenic
global warming, and thinks that to the extent that the science
remains uncertain the Precautionary Principle still justifies even
relatively costly mitigation measures. Like Prof. Dutton, he is,
however, open to being led by logic and good evidence to whatever
the truth may be. His optimistic hope is that Climate Debate Daily
will help focus minds on the very best arguments from both sides of
the debate and help put the poor arguments (of which there are
many!) to rest.

Climate Debate Daily is an independent website generously supported
by a grant from Dr. Peter Farrell of ResMed Corp. (www.resmed.com).
Like Denis Dutton, Dr. Farrell is skeptical of the threat of
anthropogenic global warming. But he also says, "Let the best
argument win."

Coding, format, and on-site content copyright ©2008

One of the 2007 LPO meetings featured a visit by Tom FitzGerald,
Kentucky Resources Council, talking to LPO about how to add a
"political action" dimension to our agenda in order to effect change.
In that context, please know that Kentuckiana Transportation Action
Partnership (KTAP), a coalition of 25 organizations and local
businesses, including LPO, will testify Monday January 28, on the "Two
Bridges Project" to the Kentucky House Budget Review Subcommittee on
Transportation of the House Committee on Appropriations and Revenue.
This hearing is scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. in room 154 of the
Capitol Annex in Frankfort.

Jackie Green (KTAP), Tom FitzGerald (KRC), Barry Zalph (Bicycling for
Louisville) and K.A. Owens (Kentuckians for the Commonwealth) are
expected to split the 30 minutes allotted to KTAP for testimony.  Phil
Ardery (workday phone 502.456.2802 ) is in charge of
Louisville-Frankfort carpool arrangements.  Those wanting to attend
the hearing should plan on leaving Louisville around noon.  Please
call me (Phil) or send me an email if you wish to ride in a carpool or
are willing to drive and accept riders. Thanks.  For more about KTAP,
see http://www.ktap.org .

Interesting part of his speech:
Now let me turn to something that you might think is completely out
there.  I have been talking with the heads of the major auto
manufacturers over the past few weeks.  And I have been asking them if
there is a place for Wal-Mart in the hybrid electric or plug-in
electric car market, so our customers do not have to spend so much
money filling up their gas tanks.  Maybe there isn't room for Wal-Mart
in this right now.  But something tells me that there may be some role
for us in the future, and we are going to continue taking a look at this.

Let me throw another idea out there.  What if we looked at whether
Wal-Mart could provide eco- friendly energy to our customers?  What
could we do in the U.S. -- where per capita energy use is among the
highest in the world?

Imagine your customers pulling into your parking lot, and seeing wind
turbines and solar panels, and being able to charge their cars while
they shop.  I think that would make them feel good about shopping at
your stores.  It would also make them feel good if they could save
money in the process.  What if we fed the power generated by those
wind turbines and solar powers back into the electrical grid?  Just
imagine the impact of our customers being able to buy eco-friendly
energy at the unbeatable Wal-Mart price.

Everything I have talked about will help our customers use less energy
and spend a smaller portion of their hard-earned money on energy.  We
also want to work with our suppliers to help them use less energy too.
  Working together, we believe our suppliers can reduce the amount of
energy they use to make our products by 20%.

Of course, all these efforts will also help the environment and
address the challenge of climate change.  Taking waste and
non-renewable energy out of our supply chain reduces the amount of
pollution and greenhouse gases our suppliers send into the atmosphere.
  Helping customers buy more sustainable products and be better
stewards of the environment reduces their own carbon footprint.  This
is something that I think all of us can be proud of.

http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/lpolist/post

SPECIAL EVENT NOTICE
Thursday, Feb. 7, 7:00-9:00 pm; St. Matthews-Eline branch library,
3940 Grandview Ave., 2 blocks S of Trinity on Fairfax.
2nd screening of "Escape from Suburbia" (95 min.) which we viewed at
the regular January LPO meeting. This is an alternative for those who
couldn't make the January meeting or would like a refresher before
our Feb. 9 discussion at the regular time and place. Good opportunity
to invite others and spread the message. For film info see:
www.escapefromsuburbia.com and review excerpt below.

Regular Saturday morning Feb. 9 meeting at the downtown branch
library:
Under the umbrella topic of Responses to Peak Oil, we will be
discussing "Escape from Suburbia", which we did not have an
opportunity to do last month because of time constraints.

"Escape from Suburbia chronicles the journey of three people (Kate
Holloway, Philip Botwinick and Carol Steinman) as they struggle to do
what they feel is best within the coming era after Peak Oil. Where
The End of Suburbia was direct and brutally honest, Escape from
Suburbia is a rich interplay on the subtle relationships between the
potential solutions each person faces as the demand for fossil fuels
outstretches supply. With issues such as the energy crisis,
neighborhood gardens and the collapse of the American way-of-life, it
would be easy for the independent film to use its 90-minute running
time to whirl into a rant that leaves the viewer shocked and the
director sounding like an eco-crazy - but the result of Escape from
Suburbia is the complete opposite. The director does a wonderful job
with dealing with the complex layers involved with transportation,
urban density, local farming, industrial agriculture, over-
population, renewable energy and environmental attitudes toward peak
oil."

 

Conversation Café--- Wednesday, January 30, 2008

For the indefinite future we will be meeting upstairs at the City Cafe located next door to the Baxter Theaters in the Mid-City Mall. We meet at 7:00 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. on Wednesdays (unless the day falls on or near a major holiday). You are very welcome to join us. Everyone gets time to speak and listen, but come to just listen if you like.

 This Wednesday the topic of discussion will be:

What do you see as the nature of people? Do you see people as having a nature? If so, is it different for men than women? Can you choose your own nature?

   Bring friends if you like.

 

I applaud all environmentalists, activists, radical freethinkers, writers, idealists, creators, philosophers, artists, students and teachers who challenge us to go against the grain, to question, to think, and to respond to the world outside the box: those who search for the truth behind a culture of lies and disinformation, who refuse to give in to pessimism in the face of what often seems like a lost cause.

Quote by Annie Lennox, singer and social activist, from Resurgence Magazine, the January-February 2007 issue

 

About Conversation Cafe:

In Louisville we've been meeting on Wednesdays for almost 5 1/2 years. Our web site, where anyone can comment, is: http://www.neighborhoodlink.com/org/conversationcafe.

Vicki Robin is a co-creator of Conversation Cafes. See http://www.conversationcafe.org .

Vicki Robin, President of the New Road Map Foundation, has fostered the Conversation Café Initiative through public speaking, organizing, hosting Cafés, educating hosts, writing, and general cajoling and pleading. She is co-author with Joe Dominguez of Your Money or Your Life, an international best seller. That book continues to help people free up their time from the work-and-spend treadmill. Conversation Cafés help people investigate what this newly acquired free time might really be for. Since 9/11, Vicki has worked with the Café movement to help create social spaces where empowered citizenship might truly show up.

In reflecting on the next steps I might apply myself to beyond promoting a shift in personal consumption patterns, I realized that my core message really wasn't 'Spend less' but was 'Reflect on what you spend in light of your values.' The Conversation Caf é project addresses the need to increase social intelligence, to build social capital and generate the social engagement so we can actually HAVE a wise democracy. I am doing this by building a network of Cafés where people can have weekly drop-in dialogues about the key inner and outer issues of our times.

"I envision a culture of conversation — a culture where people talk freely — without fear or taboos — with friends and strangers alike. I once asked a Dane how Denmark had resisted the pressures of globalization. He said two words: study circles. Most Danes throughout their adult lives have the habit of conversation about things that matter in small groups." Viki Robin

Please make a purchase at the City Café in respect of the owners who are granting us this space to gather. Coffee, tea, soft drinks, appetizers, desserts, and dinners are available. One need not purchase a dinner. You can eat during the conversation if you want to.

 We thrive on diversity.

For more information contact John at 502-560-0085 or johart@....    

______________________________________________________________

Cofound (Coalition for Understanding)

CHANGES-- Cofound will be meeting on the 2nd Sunday of the month and on the last Friday of the month. 2nd Sunday meetings will still be at 3 p.m. Last Friday meetings will be at 7 p.m. Both meetings will be held at the Karma Cafe 1250 Bardstown Road across from Amazing Grace, near Grinstead Drive. We will no longer meet on the 1st and 3rd Sundays of the month.

Again, the new dates are the 2nd Sunday at 3 p.m. and the last Friday at 7 p.m. Both at the Karma Cafe.

On that last Friday why not bring your date (or partner) for some spirited political discussion. Maybe have dinner while your there.

 

On Sunday, February 10, 2008 at 3 p.m. at the Karma Cafe

The topic of discussion will be:

TBA

 All are invited.

We meet on the second Sunday of every month (3 p.m.) and on the last Friday of the month (7 p.m.) unless the day is on or close to a major holiday. Both at the Karma Cafe.

Hope to see you there. For more information about Cofound see:  http://cofound.blogspot. com/

Please make a purchase at the City Café in respect of the owners who are granting us this space to gather. Coffee, tea, soft drinks, appetizers, desserts, and dinners are available. One need not purchase a dinner. Eating during conversation is ok.

For more information contact John at 502-560-0085 or johart@....

____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________

Louisville Peak Oil Group

Thursday, February 7, 7 - 9 p.m. Special event notice and Saturday, February 9, 2008 Meeting

Our purpose is to study for ourselves and to educate others to the realities and consequences of the Peak Oil crisis. We also plan choices and lifestyles to maximize the current and future quality of life for ourselves and our children.

SPECIAL EVENT NOTICE
Thursday, Feb. 7, 7:00-9:00 pm; St. Matthews-Eline branch library, 3940 Grandview Ave.
2nd screening of "Escape from Suburbia" (95 min.) which we viewed at the regular January LPO meeting. This is an alternative for those who couldn't make the January meeting or would like a refresher before our Feb. 9 discussion at the regular time and place.

Regular Saturday morning Feb. 9 meeting at the downtown branch library:
Under the umbrella topic of Responses to Peak Oil, we will be discussing "Escape from Suburbia", which we did not have an opportunity to do last month because of time constraints. (in the Main Library Boardroom from 9 - 11 a.m.)

Please RSVP at the meetup site.

An RSVP for the meeting at http://oilawareness.meetup.com/35 would be
appreciated.

When:

 

Saturday, February 9, 2008 at 9:00 AM

Where:

Board Room, Louisville FP Library Main Branch
301 York St .
Louisville , KY 40202
(502)574-1611

Info: George Perkins 425-6645

gg_perk@bellsouth. net
www.louisvillepeakoil.org 

Help spread the word! Let's pull in a good audience.

I've put a poster for the Feb. 7 screening of "Escape from Suburbia" at
the St. Matthews library in the Files section of LPOlist. If you can
find a few telephone poles and bulletin boards on which to post it,
please do, as well as spreading the word in person and by email. It's
laid out in color but works well in b&w also. You can access it at
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/LPOlist/files and will need to use your
sign-in id/password.

This story has been forwarded to you from
http://www.alternet.org by gg_perk@...

It's a long time 'til the Ky. primary, but here are some good comparisons of the
current candidates on energy and enviro issues, which are getting near-zero
publicity.

-------------------------------------
There Are Green '08 Candidates, and Then There Are Some That Aren't ... at All
http://www.alternet.org/environment/75814

Which candidates support nuclear and coal? Who's fighting climate change and
supports renewables? Here's the scoop.
-------------------------------------

---

To: ;
From: mgraffis@...
Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2008 08:22:31 -0400
Subject: [energyresources] Oil Production: Will the Peak Hold?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/63644-oil-production-will-the-peak-hold

Oil Production: Will the Peak Hold?
posted on: February 07, 2008 | about stocks: OIL / USO / XLE
The theory of peak oil remains as contentious as ever, and by definition is unresolved. The supporting evidence starts with the bull market in crude prices in recent years, inspiring some to proclaim that global production is about as high as it ever will be.

The optimists counter that technology will save the day, through new discoveries that offset declining production from aging fields and recovering more oil from older wells that would otherwise run dry.

The jury is still out on the big picture, and it may remain so for years. In the meantime, there is no shortage of data to review. Case in point: the reported peak (so far) in global crude oil production came in May 2005 at 74.3 million barrels per day (bpd), as our chart below shows, according to numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In fact, there's been only three months when global production crossed above 74 million bpd, with the latest one coming last October at 74.1 million bpd, or just below the May 2005 summit.

click to enlarge

It's any one's guess if the old high will stand or not. And, of course, there are questions about the accuracy of EIA's numbers. In fact, there's skepticism that any database attempting to consolidate such an unwieldy beast as the world's oil production into one number. Nonetheless, everyone will be watching the updates, eager to declare victory for their side. All the more so considering how close last October's total was to the May 2005 apex. As we wrote this article, EIA's monthly production figures run through October 2007. The November report is coming soon.

Meantime, as the world ponders the supply side of the oil market, there's far less mystery on the demand side. In fact, it's the same old story: up, up and away.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

A report published last week by Citibank, and so far unremarked by the media, proposes "genuine difficulties" in increasing the production of crude oil, "particularly after 2012." Though 175 big drilling projects will start in the next four years, "the fear remains that most of this supply will be offset by high levels of decline".

If biofuels can't be produced in virgin habitats, they must be confined to existing agricultural land, which means that every time we fill up the car we snatch food from people's mouths. This, in turn, raises the price of food, which encourages farmers to destroy pristine habitats -- primary forests, ancient grasslands, wetlands and the rest -- in order to grow it. We can congratulate ourselves on remaining morally pure, but the impacts are the same. There is no way out of this: on a finite planet with tight food supplies you either compete with the hungry or clear new land.

http://www.alternet.org/environment/76782/

To all,
If we ever got serious about CONSERVATION, we could solve a big part of our
energy problems and our dependence on foreign oil!!  Five years ago in
France, the Ford Focus was getting 40 mpg.  Go figure!!
Larry Ridenour

-----Original Message-----
From: lpolist@yahoogroups.com [mailto:lpolist@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of
John Hartmann
Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2008 9:30 AM
To: lpolist@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [LPOlist] AlterNet: Environment: Is There a Plan for Life After
Peak Oil?

A report published last week by Citibank, and so far unremarked by the
media, proposes "genuine difficulties" in increasing the production of crude
oil, "particularly after 2012." Though 175 big drilling projects will start
in the next four years, "the fear remains that most of this supply will be
offset by high levels of decline".



If biofuels can't be produced in virgin habitats, they must be confined to
existing agricultural land, which means that every time we fill up the car
we snatch food from people's mouths. This, in turn, raises the price of
food, which encourages farmers to destroy pristine habitats -- primary
forests, ancient grasslands, wetlands and the rest -- in order to grow it.
We can congratulate ourselves on remaining morally pure, but the impacts are
the same. There is no way out of this: on a finite planet with tight food
supplies you either compete with the hungry or clear new land.



http://www.alternet.org/environment/76782/
<http://www.alternet.org/environment/76782/>




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When "Gas guzzling" America has to pay $5-6 per gallon for gasoline, they will then be shocked into CONSERVING what oil is left. We will demand higher fuel efficiency and smarter energy alternatives.

Larry Ridenour

-----Original Message-----
From: lpolist@yahoogroups.com [mailto:lpolist@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Burwell Marshall
Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2008 6:12 AM
To: lpolist@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [LPOlist] Peak Oil: Simmons v. Saudis, Round Two

> To: ;
> From: mgraffis@...
> Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2008 19:53:23 -0400
> Subject: [energyresources] Peak Oil: Simmons v. Saudis, Round Two
>
> http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/02/12/big-peak-oil-debate-redux/?mod=googlenews_wsj
>
> February 12, 2008, 7:27 am
> Peak Oil: Simmons v. Saudis, Round Two
> Posted by Keith Johnson
> Neil King in Washington, D.C. reports:
>
> Both Nansen Saleri, former chief of reservoir management at Saudi Aramco, and Houston-based investment banker Matthew Simmons are feeling good these days about the famous–and weighty–debate they held four years ago at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies.

>
> Are Saudi Arabia’s massive oil fields in great shape—or falling apart? Can Saudi Aramco help slake the globe’s soaring energy thirst far into the century—or has that ability already peaked?

>
>
>
>
> Matthew Simmons
> Simmons, in his book “Twilight in the Desert” argued that several big Saudi fields, including the massive Ghawar field, were showing signs of serious strain. Their debate before a packed house at CSIS marked an unprecedented moment of openness for the secretive Aramco.

>
>
>
>
> Nansen Saleri
> Saleri now says in an interview that time has proven Aramco right. Simmons “was saying four years ago that Ghawar was going to collapse and that Saudi Aramco was going to go into decline….[But] that precipitous decline never occurred,” he says.

>
> Saleri, who left Aramco last year to create his own Houston-based reservoir-management company, insists Ghawar will keep pumping five million barrels a day far into the future. Aramco also managed to revive some other behemoths, like Abqaiq.

>
> “Abqaiq became a renaissance story for Aramco,” he says, insisting that the field’s pressure remains strong and its water content is going down even after more than 60 years in production. Abqaiq “is doing fantastically,” Saleri says.

>
> Simmons, reached by phone in Houston, says he feels equally vindicated—and increasingly alarmed. He based his book largely on information dug up in old technical journals. In recent weeks he has hit the archives again, with thoughts of writing a second book.

>
> What he has found, he says, “is so unbelievably scary you can’t believe it.” He claims that there is mounting technical evidence that Aramco is struggling to deal with increasing volumes of water at its hugest fields. With water production going up, he says, oil production is going down.

>
> “It is absolutely clear as a bell now that all of those fields are heading toward being another Cantarell,” referring to the massive Mexican offshore field, which is now in rapid decline.

>
> So how different are the world views of Simmons and Saleri?
>
> Saleri says he’s convinced technology will help revive aging reservoirs all over the globe, and world oil production won’t hit peak until well after 2050.

>
> Simmons believes we may already have hit that peak. After his recent studies, he now fears he has “grossly underestimated how savage the post-peak oil reality will be.”

>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>
> Your message didn't show up on the list? Complaints or compliments?
> Drop me (Tom Robertson) a note at t1r@...
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
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---

To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
From: joedoves@...
Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2008 13:40:11 +0000
Subject: [energyresources] Feinstein to Bodman--'What are you doing about Peak Oil?'

Calif. Senator asks Energy Secretary about oil transparency
By David Room

On February 11, 2008, California Senator Dianne Feinstein sent a
letter (see below) to Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman inquiring about
the Department of Energy's activities concerning peak oil. The letter
references a recent report "Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes
it Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline
in Oil Production" issued in February 2007 by the Government
Accountability Office (GAO). The report recommended that Energy
Secretary Bodman
work with other agencies to establish a strategy to coordinate and
prioritize federal agency efforts to reduce uncertainly about the
likely timing of a peak (in global oil production) and to advise
Congress on how best to mitigate consequences.
Feinstein notes that
The GAO found that we could more accurately forecast a peak in oil
production with improved data on oil resources and use. Reducing
uncertainty regarding available oil supplies would increase stability
in oil markets and allow for informed decisions regarding the
development of oil alternatives.
For the past several years, energy investment banker Matt Simmons has
spent much of his time stumping for Oil Transparency. His argument is
that if we better understand the amount of oil left in the ground, we
are in a vastly better situation for figuring out what to do about it
and have a vastly stronger foundation for building the necessary
political will to swallow potentially bitter pills. Simmons says the
lack of greater certainty around our energy future enables us to
complacently sit on our laurels as the window of opportunity for
addressing peak oil narrows. He suggests making oil reserves data
public worldwide, noting that exporting countries have not been
forthright about their reserves.

An important International effort to make world oil production
numbers transparent is the Joint Oil Data Initiative. It, however,
does not address the most important data we need to make vital energy
decisions &#8722; total remaining reserves audited by third parties. It is
useful to know how quickly the car is using gas, which this
initiative provides, but without knowing how much gas is left in the
gas tank, we still can't make important policy decisions.

A comprehensive Oil Transparency strategy would include the best
information about oil still in the ground, as well as an
understanding of the assumptions that go into world oil production
models, what exactly is defined as oil, and how quickly and
economically substitutes can be produced. Oil transparency can
include alternative sources (like shale, tar sands, etc.) but must
also openly consider the ecological and climate consequences of
turning to these sources. Lastly, we need to understand how we came
to be in this predicament. Deciphering U.S. energy policy over the
past six decades will help us understand how we arrived to this
perilous situation and what kinds of changes need to be put in place
to make sure that the mistakes of yesteryear are not multiplied into
the future.

We need transparency in all aspects of oil especially worldwide
reserves data and its implications for future production for several
reasons.

First, without this data, we are unable to predict when the world
will reach peak oil, the point at which worldwide oil production
inexorably begins to decline. Because our economies are completely
dependent on highly available and inexpensive oil, knowing when the
peak will occur is vital to planning our transition away from oil.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Cambridge Energy
Research Associates (CERA) claim that peak oil will not occur for
several decades and argue that there is plenty of oil left to recover
for future use. On the other hand, the Association for the Study of
Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), which counts Simmons and many independent
and respected geologists among its members, believes that the peak is
just a few years away.

Second, valuable policy initiatives such as the Oil Depletion
Protocol, in which countries agree to ratchet down their oil
consumption in lockstep with the overall depletion rate, would work
best if based upon accurate reserve and production data estimated
using best practices yet to be established. The Oil Depletion
Protocol is an innovative international agreement that will prevent
resource wars over the remaining oil deposits which may be inevitable
without this sort of agreement in place.

Third, oil transparency could be the linchpin that enables the
country to buckle down and commit to a sustainable energy future. We
sorely need a massive and immediate energy efficiency/conservation
initiative to drastically reduce energy (and water) use in the next
decade along with an intensive build out of a more sustainable and
localized, renewable energy-powered economy over the next three to
five decades.

We no longer have the luxury of planning our economy around
speculative technological advances that may never materialize or
believing that vast of amounts of energy resources will discovered or
will replace oil just because they exist. We need a responsible
energy policy that addresses both peak oil and climate change that
has proven technologies at its core and rational standard
methodologies for estimating EROEI and carbon emissions for all
proposed alternatives. This is the leading possibility for a
development of a responsible energy policy that will begin the
transition towards a sustainable future.

Senator Feinstein finishes the letter by asking Bodman to describe
the course of action taken at the Department of Energy in response to
this GAO report
the policy alternatives available to Congress and recommend a
preferable approach.
A request for information at the Department of Energy has not yet
been responded to.

If you agree with Senator Feinstein, consider
contacting Bodman office: (202-586-6210) Fax:(202-586-4403) E-mail:
(the.secretary@hq.doe.gov)
expressing support to Dianne Fienstein's Press Office at (202) 224-
9629.
Senator Feinstein's letter asking Energy Secretary Bodman about Oil
Transparency is below.
February 11, 2008

The Honorable Samuel W. Bodman
U.S. Department of Energy
1000 Independence Ave., SW
Washington, DC 20585

Dear Mr. Secretary:

In February 2007, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued a
report entitled Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes it
Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in
Oil Production.

The report recommended that:
the Secretary of Energy work with other agencies to establish a
strategy to coordinate and prioritize federal agency efforts to
reduce uncertainly about the likely timing of a peak (in global
oil production) and to advise Congress on how best to mitigate
consequences.
I am writing to inquire whether the Department of Energy has acted
upon this recommendation.

Congress acted to make our nation less susceptible to the impact of a
downturn in global oil production when it passed the Energy
Independence and Security Act of 2007. But an unexpected drop in
global oil production would still cause tremendous economic harm. The
GAO found that we could more accurately forecast a peak in oil
production with improved data on oil resources and use. Reducing
uncertainty regarding available oil supplies would increase stability
in oil markets and allow for informed decisions regarding the
development of oil alternatives.

I would greatly appreciate if you would describe what course of
action you have taken at the Department of Energy in response to this
GAO report.

Please also describe the policy alternatives available to Congress
and recommend a preferable approach.

Knowing that there is substantial debate regarding the potential for
a peak in global oil production, I look forward to hearing your views
on this matter. I hope that we can work together to take any actions
that may be appropriate.

---

To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com; whytheworldisgoingtohell@yahoogroups.com
From: mstasse@...
Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2008 23:36:41 +0000
Subject: [energyresources] Fwd: 2. CERAWeek – The Hess Heresy

Peak Oil Review - February 18, 2008
by Tom Whipple

http://www.energybulletin.net/40521.html

2. CERAWeek – The Hess Heresy

From a peak oil perspective, the most interesting news from Cambridge
Energy Research's 27th annual conference in Houston last week was the
talk given by John Hess, CEO of Hess oil. It is doubtful that the
conference planners knew what he was going to say for in essence he told
the peak oil story to the over-flow crowd of 2000 or so conference
attendees. In words of the reporter from Platts, he "gave one of the
best speeches ever heard from one of the opening speakers".

Hess told the group that "Given the long lead times of at least 5-10
years from discovery to production, an oil crisis is coming and sooner
than most people think. Unfortunately, we are behaving in ways that
suggest we do not know there is a serious problem." "Some say that there
is a large endowment of resources and that there is nothing to worry
about. Some say that we have already hit peak oil, and there's little we
can do. Others say that the rapid development of renewables will fill
the gap between demand and supply and reduce our carbon footprint in the
process," Hess noted. However, he said, "It is imperative that we change
our mindset, our sense of urgency, or the consequences will be severe."

Hess's talk left little out. On demand he talked of the rapidly growing
world population and growing fleets of cars. He said gas and oil are
still relatively cheap, that oil consumption will continue to grow at
1-1.5 million b/d for the next decade. New discoveries of oil are
inadequate; deepwater fields are difficult to exploit; there is
inadequate investment; unconventional oil and renewables will not be
adequate; there is a need for conservation; there is a lack of trained
manpower. His bottom line is "the International Energy Agency predicts
global demand to average 98.5 million b/d in 2015, based upon current
behavior; I do not see how we will meet this projection….An oil crisis
is coming in the next ten years."

--- End forwarded message ---

---

To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
From: glenswift@...
Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2008 05:35:45 +0000
Subject: [energyresources] Air-Powered Car Coming to U.S. in 2009 to 2010

Published on: February 22, 2008 (in Popular Mechanics)

The Air Car caused a huge stir when we reported last year that Tata
Motors would begin producing it in India. Now the little gas-free
ride that could is headed Stateside in a big-time way.

Zero Pollution Motors (ZPM) confirmed to PopularMechanics.com on
Thursday that it expects to produce the world's first air-powered car
for the United States by late 2009 or early 2010. As the U.S.
licensee for Luxembourg-based MDI, which developed the Air Car as a
compression-based alternative to the internal combustion engine, ZPM
has attained rights to build the first of several modular plants,
which are likely to begin manufacturing in the Northeast and grow for
regional production around the country, at a clip of up to 10,000 Air
Cars per year.

And while ZPM is also licensed to build MDI's two-seater OneCAT
economy model (the one headed for India) and three-seat MiniCAT (like
a SmartForTwo without the gas), the New Paltz, N.Y., startup is
aiming bigger: Company officials want to make the first air-powered
car to hit U.S. roads a $17,800, 75-hp equivalent, six-seat modified
version of MDI's CityCAT (pictured above) that, thanks to an even
more radical engine, is said to travel as far as 1000 miles at up to
96 mph with each tiny fill-up.

We'll believe that when we drive it, but MDI's new dual-energy engine—
currently being installed in models at MDI facilities overseas—is
still pretty damn cool in concept. After using compressed air fed
from the same Airbus-built tanks in earlier models to run its
pistons, the next-gen Air Car has a supplemental energy source to
kick in north of 35 mph, ZPM says. A custom heating chamber heats the
air in a process officials refused to elaborate upon, though they
insisted it would increase volume and thus the car's range and speed.

"I want to stress that these are estimates, and that we'll know soon
more precisely from our engineers," ZPM spokesman Kevin Haydon told
PM, "but a vehicle with one tank of air and, say, 8 gal. of either
conventional petrol, ethanol or biofuel could hit between 800 and
1000 miles."

Those figures would make the Air Car, along with Aptera's Typ-1 and
Tesla's Roadster, a favorite among early entrants for the Automotive
X Prize, for which MDI and ZPM have already signed up. But with the
family-size, four-door CityCAT undergoing standard safety tests in
Europe, then side-impact tests once it arrives in the States, could
it be the first 100-mpg, nonelectric car you can actually buy?

http://www.popularmechanics.com:80/automotive/new_cars/4251491.html?
series=19