I'm tempted to say "see previous report" and leave it at that, because
very little has changed.  Neither of the two sunspot regions visible
have the potential of generating significant flares at the present
time, and there are no coronal holes in sight.  Even in very quiet
solar conditions as we have now, brief geomagnetic storms can still
pop up every now and then as a result of small solar wind gusts, and
the result can be some beautiful high-latitude aurora, as can be seen
from this picture taken in Yellowknife, Canada.
http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images2004/29sep04/Jeffery1.jpg .
Northern hemisphere autumn is prime aurora season.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 35
SFI : 88
A index : 10
K index : 0

Solar wind speed : 379.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 8.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa

IMF : 5.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.5 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A3

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with the
chance of isolated active periods.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

Well, I didn't think it was possible for conditions to get any more
boring.  I was wrong.  The two small sunspot regions visible are close
to rotating over the western limb, so look for the sunspot number to
drop even lower if nothing comes around to take their place.  There is
a very small coronal hole that has rotated into an Earth-pointing
position, so we might see some weak solar wind gusts on or about the
7th.  That's about it.  *yawn*

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 40
SFI : 91
A index : 4
K index : 0

Solar wind speed : 347.4 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.8 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.4 nPa

IMF : 4.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.2 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A6

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

This report is slightly more interesting that the last one, although
not by much.  The solar disk is almost devoid of sunspots, and
therefore the sunspot number is quite low.  There is, however, a
coronal hole that has rotated into an Earth-pointing position, and we
could be seeing some high speed solar wind gusts from it on or about
the 11th.  That's about it for now.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 28
SFI : 91
A index : 7
K index : 2

Solar wind speed : 357.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.9 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.9 nPa

IMF : 4.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.0 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled
levels. There's a small chance for isolated periods of active levels
beginning on 11 Oct due to the influence of a recurrent high-speed
solar wind stream.

Recent significant solar flare actviity :
None

Its not too often you see sunspot number of zero, but that's what we
have now.  Not a single sunspot visible!  As a consequence, the solar
flux index is also unusually low.  That does not, however, mean that
there cant't be activity, and even aurora!  The Earth is now passing
through a high-speed solar wind stream coming from a coronal hole.
Actually, the solar wind speed is only in the 400's, but given the
time of year, that might be enough to cause aurora displays in the
higher latitudes.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 0 (!)
SFI : 87
A index : 11
K index : 3

Solar wind speed : 439.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 5.0 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.7 nPa

IMF : 4.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.4 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A5

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with
isolated active conditions possible all three days from the effects of
a recurrent high speed solar wind stream.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

While solar activity remains very low, the solar wind speed has topped
the 500 mark, and there was actually a G-1 geomagnetic storm within
the last 24 hours as a result of the increased solar wind speed.  No
aurora pics on spaceweather.com yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if a
few show up that were taken in the higher latitudes.  The appearance
of two small sunspot regions has raised the sunspot number a little,
but nothing looks like it will be generating any significant flares.
We're getting closer to the bottom of the sunspot cycle, which is due
in Jan of 07.  There will be spikes of activity along the way, and
don't be surprised to see a big flare at or near the bottom.  For
reasons nobody really understands, that seems to be the pattern.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 38
SFI : 91
A index : 25
K index : 2

Solar wind speed : 505.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.5 nPa

IMF : 3.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A8

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 682 may produce C-class
flares.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 15 October,
from the residual effects of the coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream. Activity should subside to quiet to unsettled levels on 16-17
October.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

Here are a few interesting facts.

Sunspot Cycle 23's peak smoothed sunspot number came in at 120.  That
was about 40 points lower than had been predicted.

Due to the orientation of the sun's magnetic field and the way it
swaps ends during sunspot cycle peaks, odd numbered cycles usually
cause more geomagnetic activity than even numbered ones.

The last few sunspot cycles have been getting progressively weaker.
Time will tell how that plays out, but keep in mind that there is a
strong correlation between sunspots and temperature.  Take away the
sunspots for an extended period of time (thousands of years), and you
might be looking at another ice age.

The bottom of Cycle 23 will occur either in late 2006 or early 2007.
Then, Cycle 24 will begin.

Contrary to what you might think, geomagnetic activity doesn't
necessarily correspond to sunspot number.  In fact, the more intense
geomagnetic actvity of any given sunspot cycle usually happens during
the declining phase of the cycle.

Anyway, on to today's report.  The solar wind speed has slowed down
since the most recent coronal hole encounter.  Other than the brief
G-1 geomagnetic storm, there was no other activity associated with it.
  With no coronal holes in an Earth-pointing position and no sunspots
generating significant flares, things should be quiet for a few days.
  There is a single sunspot region visible, that being region 682.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 51
SFI : 93
A index : 3
K index : 0

Solar wind speed : 296.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 5.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa

IMF : 1.3 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.3 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A7

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated minor
C-class flares are possible.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated
active periods are possible on 19 October due to a weak high speed
solar wind stream.

Recent significant solar flare activity
None

Well now, things have ddefinitely gotten more active since my last
report, and there has even been a significant flare!  There are now
six small sunspot regions visible.  Four of the six are almost right
on the solar equator, which is what you would expect to see during
this time of the sunspot cycle.  Sunspot region 687, which has very
recently rotated into view, fired off a nice M2.6 flare earlier today.
  Despite being a short-duration event, there was a CME associated with
it.  The CME did not, however, appear to be earth-directed.  In
addition to the sunspots, there is also a small coronal hole that is
in an earth-pointing position.  We might see some mild solar wind
gusts from it on the 22nd or the 23rd.  Sunspot regions 687 and 682
have the potential for generating a significant flare.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 129
SFI : 111
A index : 10
K index : 2

Solar wind speed : 436.6 km/sec
Solar wind desnity : 5.6 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.8 nPa

IMF : 6.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B2

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 682
and 687 both have a fair potential for the production of isolated
M-class flare activity.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
throughout the period.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
20-Oct-2004   	  1051Z   	  M2.6

** Aurora Watch In Effect **

After being completely void of sunspots not long ago, the visible
surface of the sun is peppered with six sunspot regions.  One of them,
region 687, has been growing rapidly and has been the source of three
nice M-class flares.  It is easily naked-eye visible, and spans over
10 earth diameters end-to-end.  The earth is actually in a bit of a
high speed solar wind stream as I write this, with the solar wind
speed being in the 450 range and the density also being higher than
normal.  Over the next few days, we could see the arrival of the CME's
launched by the M-class flares on the 22nd and the 24th.  Folks in the
higher latitudes should keep an eye out for aurora.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 178
SFI : 135
A index : 8
K index : 2

Solar wind speed : 450.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 11.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 3.4 nPa

IMF : 10.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.9 nT South

GOES-12 Backgground X-ray Flux level : B4

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar Activity is expected to be low to moderate. M-class flares are
possible from Region 687.

Geomagnetic activuty forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a
possibility for isolated active periods on 25 and 26 October due to a
possible glancing blow from a CME observed on 22 October.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
24-Oct-2004   	  2028Z   	  M2.3
22-Oct-2004   	  0811Z   	  M2.1

All is quiet for the time being, despite there being six numbered
sunspot regions visible.  If we did receive any sort of CME impact
from the flares a few days ago, it didn't have any geomagnetic effect
to speak of.  Of the six sunspot regions visible, two of them, regions
687 and 691, have the potential for producing a significant flare.
That's about it for this time around.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 150
SFI : 130
A index : 3
K index : 2

Solar wind speed : 352.6 km/sec
Solar wind density : 5.8 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa

IMF : 4.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.7 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B3

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to persist at low levels.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to mildly unsettled for
the next 72 hours.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

http://www.techcentralstation.com/102704F.html

This is yet another example of how the fascists are spinning science
toward policies of mass genocide.

What is truly disturbing to me is the 'bathtub' theory is explained
neatly by Keeling Whorf's paper on tides, and we are no where near
approached the change that is predicted by moon orbital patterns. For
those who continue to ignore this issue at your peril:

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content-nw/full/97/8/3814/F1



Now, how does this relate? Because CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSE.

I will repeat it for the mass genocidal fascists supporters here, who
have selective reading problems.

CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSE.

NONE of the so called scientists (there is certainly a statistics and
model discussiong going on) are anywhere near educated enough in how
global electrical properties drive cloud microphysics in the context
of human activity.

When the moon roiling patterns change, so do CONDUCTIVITY PATTERNS IN
THE OCEANS. Gas exchange is your mechanism for conductivity variance,
and the moon roils the oceans. So? Well, according to Keeling Whorf's
paper, the LIA cycle is 1,900 years! The roiling pattern hasn't even
started to come to a RISE!

But what does CO2 from fossil fuels mean to gas exchange in the
oceans? More to exchange, right? Well, look at what climate is
showing us--warming BEFORE the bathtub.

Energy and climate should be at the head of policies debated here,
instead, the mass genocidal fascists have control of our media and
institutions, and continue to spin falsely, on a living earth.

This is a repost from a political debate bb--none of the fair readers
here are that extreme as to support mass genocidal fascism with
blinders, but where this was first posted . . . the blinders are
thick.

--- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, mike@u... wrote:
>
>
>
> http://www.techcentralstation.com/102704F.html
>
> This is yet another example of how the fascists are spinning
science
> toward policies of mass genocide.
>
> What is truly disturbing to me is the 'bathtub' theory is explained
> neatly by Keeling Whorf's paper on tides, and we are no where near
> approached the change that is predicted by moon orbital patterns.
For
> those who continue to ignore this issue at your peril:
>
> http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197
>
> http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content-nw/full/97/8/3814/F1
>
>
>
> Now, how does this relate? Because CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSE.
>
> I will repeat it for the mass genocidal fascists supporters here,
who
> have selective reading problems.
>
> CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSE.
>
> NONE of the so called scientists (there is certainly a statistics
and
> model discussiong going on) are anywhere near educated enough in
how
> global electrical properties drive cloud microphysics in the
context
> of human activity.
>
> When the moon roiling patterns change, so do CONDUCTIVITY PATTERNS
IN
> THE OCEANS. Gas exchange is your mechanism for conductivity
variance,
> and the moon roils the oceans. So? Well, according to Keeling
Whorf's
> paper, the LIA cycle is 1,900 years! The roiling pattern hasn't
even
> started to come to a RISE!
>
> But what does CO2 from fossil fuels mean to gas exchange in the
> oceans? More to exchange, right? Well, look at what climate is
> showing us--warming BEFORE the bathtub.
>
> Energy and climate should be at the head of policies debated here,
> instead, the mass genocidal fascists have control of our media and
> institutions, and continue to spin falsely, on a living earth.

Sunspot region 691 has become very active over the last few days,
firing off several strong flares, including a massive X-class flare on
the 30th.  The flares were short duration events, which usually don't
do much in the way of CME's.  However, analysis of SOHO coronagraph
imagery show that there was some CME activity, and there appeared to
be a halo component to them.  They weren't full-halo shots, but we
should get a glancing blow from them, probably starting on the 1st.
The are six sunspot regions visible, and 691 is by far the most
active.  However, region 693 might be another source of significant
flares.  There is also a small coronal hole that is now in an
earth-pointing position.  That could also contribute to unsettled
geomagnetic over the next few days.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 163
SFI : 139
A index : 10
K index : 3

Solar wind speed : 425.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa

IMF : 5.1 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.8 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B4

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with a slight chance for
major flare activity. Region 691 is the main threat for moderate or
higher activity levels, although Region 693 might also contribute.
There is also a slight chance for a proton event from Region 691,
given its favorable location on the disk.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels until sometime around mid-day tomorrow (01 November) when
transient flow from the energetic solar events of 30 October are
expected to arrive at Earth. Active conditions with some periods of
minor storm levels are expected to follow and persist for 24-36 hours.
Conditions are expected to subside to unsettled to active levels on
the third day (03 November).

Recent significant solar flare activity :
31-Oct-2004   	  0532Z   	  M2.3
31-Oct-2004   	  0226Z   	  M1.1
30-Oct-2004   	  1633Z   	  M5.9
30-Oct-2004   	  1146Z   	  X1.2
30-Oct-2004   	  0928Z   	  M3.7
30-Oct-2004   	  0618Z   	  M4.2
30-Oct-2004   	  0333Z   	  M3.3

Solar activity continues to be high this evening, thanks to a couple
of flare-producing sunspots.  Regions 691, which is now close to
rotating over the western limb of the solar disk, and region 696
combined to produce 4 M-class flares within the last 24 hours,
including a very respectable M-5 event.  The largest sunspot region in
view is region 693, which is easily naked-eye visible.  Thusfar,
however, it has been relatively quiet.  The M-5 flare produced an
impressive CME.  While it was not squarely earth-directed, there was
an unmistakable halo component to it, and it should be arriving here
on or about the 6th.  Additionally, solar wind gusts from the coronal
hole I mentioned in my last report should be arriving just about any
time now.  In fact, as I look at the solar wind data, that event may
already be starting to take place.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 123
SFI : 136
A index : 9
K index : 2

Solar wind speed : 469.6 km/sec
Solar wind density : 6.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.5 nPa

IMF : 7.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.8 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B5

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Radio blackouts
reaching the R2 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, but there is a fair chance
for an isolated major flare event over the next three days from Region
696, Region 691, or Region 693.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with possible
active periods for the next two days (04-05 November) due to coronal
hole effects. The CME associated with today's M5 flare is expected to
arrive on the third day (06 November) and is expected to increase
activity to mostly active levels with occasional periods of minor
storm levels.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
03-Nov-2004   	  1826Z   	  M1.0
03-Nov-2004   	  1547Z   	  M5.0
03-Nov-2004   	  0335Z   	  M1.6
03-Nov-2004   	  0133Z   	  M2.8
01-Nov-2004   	  0322Z   	  M1.1

** Aurora Watch In Effect **

Sunspot region 696 continues to be very active, and has fired off a
series of strong M-class flares, the strongest being an M9 event.
Some of the flares have been long duration, and there is a sting of
CME's on the way.  The M9 flare launched an impressive full-halo CME.
  The first of the bunch could arrive in the wee hours of the morning
on the 7th.  That one came from the M5 flare mentioned in my last
report.  There is a decent chance for geomagnetic storming and aurora
tonight.  Skywatchers in the higher latitudes should keep an eye out.
  Solar activity is expected to remain high, and region 696 could
produce more strong flares.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 106
SFI : 129
A index : 1
K index : 0

Solar wind speed : 353.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 8.8 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.9 nPa

IMF : 8.3 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.8 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B4

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R2 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels for
the next three days due to the complexity of Region 696.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm
levels. The ACE spacecraft indicates that there should be a shock
passage early on 07 November allowing for minor to major storm
conditions due to the full halo CME resulting from the M5 event on 03
November. A weaker shock may also arrive later on 07 November due to
the long duration C6/Sf event that resulted in a partial halo CME that
occurred on 04 November at 0905Z. Another potential shock passage is
expected on 08 November resulting from the combination of the M2 and
M5 x-ray events and associated partial halo CME that occurred
yesterday could produce periods of minor storming. The M9/2n event
that produced yet another partial halo CME that occurred today should
arrive Earth on 09 November in tandem with the onset of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream which may result in periods of minor to
major storm conditions. A slight chance of a greater than 10 MeV
proton flux event in association with a major flare from Region 696
remains worthy of note.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
06-Nov-2004   	  1953Z   	  M1.4
06-Nov-2004   	  0157Z   	  M3.6
06-Nov-2004   	  0057Z   	  M5.9
06-Nov-2004   	  0034Z   	  M9.3
05-Nov-2004   	  1922Z   	  M1.2
05-Nov-2004   	  1130Z   	  M4.0
04-Nov-2004   	  2309Z   	  M5.4
04-Nov-2004   	  2229Z   	  M2.5

G-5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm in progress
S-2 (moderate) solar radiation storm in progress

Aurora are currently being seen as far south as Colorado and Utah.
This is a result of the impact of the CME from the M5 flare a few days
ago.  The Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung hard south with the impact.

Solar wind speed : 727.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.4 protons/cc

IMF : 27.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 25 nT South

Will we see it in No. Cal?  It seems to get cloudy here whenever
there is a big event like this.

--- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
wrote:
>
> G-5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm in progress
> S-2 (moderate) solar radiation storm in progress
>
> Aurora are currently being seen as far south as Colorado and Utah.
> This is a result of the impact of the CME from the M5 flare a few
days
> ago.  The Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung hard south with the
impact.
>
> Solar wind speed : 727.1 km/sec
> Solar wind density : 4.4 protons/cc
>
> IMF : 27.0 nT
> IMF Orientation : 25 nT South

Aurora were photographed in Utah, so it was possible you could've seen
it.  Aurora were spotted as far south as NC, and some pretty darn good
aurora in NC at that!  That was the strongest geomagnetic storm I've
seen in a long time.  It was a good one!

http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01nov04.htm

** G-3 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **

The last 48 hours have been amazing, and aurora have been seen and
photographed as far south as NC and OK.  The fun started with the
impact of the CME from the M-5 flare that occurred several days ago.
The interplanetary magnetic field swung hard south, at one time
reaching 41 nT South.  The result was a G-5 (extreme) geomagnetic
storm, the highest category.  That happened on the night of the 7th.
That was followed by another CME shock arrival earlier today, which
touched off a G-4 geomagnetic storm.  That event is still happening
now, although it has subsided slightly to the G-3 level.  The cause of
all of the action has been a long string of powerful flares created by
sunspot region 696.  Region 696 is getting close to the western limb
of the solar disk, but it is not going quietly.  Today saw an M-8 and
an X-2 flare.  At least one, and maybe both, of those flares fired off
a CME.  The CME from the M-8 flare had a definite halo component to
it.  It is expected to arrive sometime on the 11th.  If you're in an
area with dark skies and good visibility, definitely keep a watch out
for aurora over the next two or three days.

http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01nov04.htm

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 90
SFI : 127
A index : 91
K index : 7

Solar wind speed : 739.0 km/sec
Solar wind density : 6.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 4.6 nPa

IMF : 29.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 25.2 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B7

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been severe. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G4 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
the R2 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 696 is
expected to produce M-class flares, and X-class flares are possible.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm
conditions on 10-11 November. A CME shock associated with the M8 flare
observed today should arrive on 11 November. Activity should subside
to quiet to active levels on 12 November.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
10-Nov-2004   	  0213Z   	  X2.5
09-Nov-2004   	  1719Z   	  M8.9
08-Nov-2004   	  1549Z   	  M2.3
07-Nov-2004   	  1606Z   	  X2.0

** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **

There is still a chance, albeit a diminishing one one, for aurora
tonight.  A CME was expected to strike Earth's megnetosphere today.
Either it missed us, or it did hit but had no appreciable effect.  At
any rate, the high geomagnetic activity seen over the last few days is
declining.  Still, there might be aurora visible tonight in the higher
latitudes, so keep an eye out.  Sunspot region 696, which has been the
source of the recent activity, hasn't fired off a significant flare
since the X-2 class flare on the 10th, and it is also rotating over
the western limb of the solar disk.  In fact, the background X-ray
flux has been declining rather dramatically as region 696 begins
rotating out of view.  Sunspot region 701 is just now rotating into
view, but has been quiet so far.  We should have a better idea of
region 701's characteristics by the beginning of next week.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 70
SFI : 95
A index : 22
K index : 3

Solar wind speed : 549.6 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa

IMF : 5.6 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.9 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B2

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G1 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
the S2 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Solar
radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class
flares are possible.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 13
November. Predominantly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 14
and 15 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton event in progress now
is expected to gradually decline to below the event threshold on 13
November.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
10-Nov-2004   	  0213Z   	  X2.5

Once sunspot region 696 rotated over the western limb, the activity
level dropped off dramatically, and all is quiet this evening.
Sunspot region 700 has been growing some, and has an outside chance of
generating an M-class flare.  There is also a small coronal hole that
has rotated into an Earth-pointing position, and we could see some
solar wind gusts from it on or about the 19th.  Aurora pictures from
the period of the 7th - 11th continue to come into spaceweather.com,
and they are now up to 9 pages of some really beautiful pictures.  If
you haven't already looked, please to so.  You'll be impressed.
http://spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01nov04_page9.htm

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 57
SFI : 106
A index : 3
K index : 0

Solar wind speed : 405.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 7.1 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.7 nPa

IMF : 5.3 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.2 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 700 has a
slight chance of producing an isolated M-class flare based on the
magnetic structure of the region.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
throughout the period.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

I didn't have to see it to know. It was cloudy.  It always is this
time of year with an 'event' like that.


>
> Aurora were photographed in Utah, so it was possible you could've
seen
> it.

All is pretty quiet tonight.  There isn't really much happening right
this minute to speak of, although that might be changing soon.  First,
it is expected that the Earth will be moving into a high speed solar
wind stream coming from a small coronal hole, possibly starting on the
19th.  Secondly, the background X-ray flux is rising rather quickly.
The two sunspot regions currently in view, 699 and 701, haven't
exhibited any signs of sudden activity, so its unlikely either one of
them is the source.  A better possibility is sunspot region 704, which
is just now peeking over the eastern limb of the solar disk.  As it
comes into view over the next few days, we'll be able to get a better
idea of what's in store.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 77
SFI : 104
A index : 2
K index : 0

Solar wind speed : 334.2 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.9 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.2 nPa

IMF : 5.6 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.5 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B2

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to
unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be seen at higher
latitudes on 20 and 21 November due to coronal hole effects.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

As you all know, I think the ecology of the Gulf of California has,
along with higher CO2 for gas exchange, caused the drought in the
Southwest. Interesting article in this regard. But keep in mind that
presently no water flows into the Gulf itself--flows are used by the
Mexicans as well:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?
tmpl=story&cid=676&e=50&u=/usatoday/20041119/ts_usatoday/wavecomingdow
nthecolorado

Wave coming down the Colorado

Fri Nov 19, 6:20 AM ET Top Stories - USATODAY.com



By Patrick O'Driscoll, USA TODAY

The federal government will unleash a torrent of reservoir water down
the Colorado River starting Sunday in an experiment to rebuild
beaches that provide habitat for endangered wildlife and campsites
for thousands of Grand Canyon tourists.



The Interior Department will open giant valves in Glen Canyon Dam in
Arizona to begin what the agency calls "a high flow test study." At
the peak of the test, the dam will release enough water to fill
370,000 bathtubs each minute for 60 straight hours.

The five-day "flush," ending Thanksgiving night, should push
downstream almost a million tons of sediment that washed into the
Colorado from a side canyon this fall after weeks of storms.

If the experiment works, that sediment will rebuild sandbars critical
to rare fish, birds and snails that inhabit the canyon. Those
creatures became imperiled after the dam and Lake Powell reservoir
were built in 1963, abruptly stopping the flow of more than 90% of
the river's sand and sediment.

If the experiment fails, critics, such as the Sierra Club (news - web
sites), will continue to press for other measures. Among them:
tearing down the dam or hauling sediment from above Glen Canyon Dam
by truck or pipeline to spots downstream, including Grand Canyon
National Park.

Removing the dam, an idea suggested decades ago by environmental
activists and a few scientists, gained renewed attention after a
similar water-release experiment in 1996 failed. That attempt did
rebuild more than 50 beaches and sandbars. But within months, river
erosion melted them away again.

Bennett Raley, assistant Interior secretary for water and science,
says he is optimistic this experiment will help develop strategies
less radical than tearing down the dam to aid the canyon's ecology
and recreation. He says removing the dam is an idea that won't float.

"Glen Canyon Dam is there. It's not going anywhere," Raley
says. "Periodic discussion about tearing it down or draining (Lake
Powell) are fun for those that engage in that rhetoric, but that's
not the real world."

The sandy deposits blocked by the dam and reservoir are vital because
they create a habitat for the humpback chub, an oversized minnow
whose numbers have shrunk to 2,000 fish. The sediment also anchors
plants that shelter an endangered bird, the Southwestern willow
flycatcher.

In addition, beaches created by the deposits are campsites for tens
of thousands of people who raft the Colorado each year on trips
through the Grand Canyon.

Federal laws protect the rare species and require the National Park
Service to preserve places like the Grand Canyon for future
generations. But the dam and reservoir also have become essential to
human life in the West by providing hydroelectric power and a
critical supply of water.

As the Interior Department tries to balance the needs of people and
the canyon's ecology, biologists are skeptical of the water-release
experiment.

"It is not a long-term solution, it is a Band-Aid," says river
scientist Dave Wegner of Durango, Colo., who headed the team that
managed the 1996 release. "It will move sediment around, but the
(erosion) process will continue."

Wegner, a board member of the Glen Canyon Institute, a conservation
advocacy group, now favors building fewer dams and removing others.
He isn't advocating that Glen Canyon Dam be torn down, but he thinks
dredging sediment from above it and moving it

** Aurora Watch In Effect **

The Earth is currently inside of a coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream, and that has served to kick the geomnagnetic activity level up
a bit.  G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within the
last 24 hours.  Skywatchers in the higher latitudes should keep an eye
out for aurora.  There are two sunspot regions visible, but neither
appears to have the ability to generate a significant flare for the
time being.  There is another coronal hole that is rotating into an
Earth-pointing position, and we could be seeing solar wind gusts from
it along about the 25th.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 27
SFI : 101
A index : 16
K index : 2

Solar wind speed : 562.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.4 nPa

IMF : 5.6 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.5 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

Geomnagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with the
possibility of isolated active periods.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

This Thanksgiving evening find the Earth inside of a coronal hole
solar wind stream, and the solar wind speed is a bit elevated at
slightly over the 500 mark.  While aurora are not in the official
forecasts, there has been a G-1 geomagnetic storm within the last 24
hours, so at least a passing glance to the sky might be worthwhile for
those in the higher latitudes.  There are four numbered sunspot
regions visible, but none appear to have the potential of producing a
significant flare at this time.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 61
SFI : 109
A index : 18
K index : 3

Solar wind speed : 504.0 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.6 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa

IMF : 6.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B2

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance of an
isolated M-class event.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated
active conditions are possible for 26 November as the geomagnetic
field continues to be under the influence of the coronal hole high
speed stream.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

** Aurora Watch In Effect **

There not much in the way of solar activity tonight, but there is a
bit of geomagnetic activity.  The earth is inside of a high-speed
coronal hole solar wind stream, and geomagnetic conditions have been
getting up into the active category.  No storms or aurora yet, but
that is a possibility.  Skywatchers in the higher latitudes should
keep an eye out for aurora.  Of the three sunspot regions visible,
none appear to have the ability to generate a significant flare at
this time.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 40
SFI : 111
A index : 19
K index : 3

Solar wind speed : 574.7 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.9 nPa

IMF : 5.1 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.9 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three
days (30 November - 2 December).

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the
next three days (29 November - 2 December) due to persistence from
currently enhanced solar wind and the onset of effects from a
favorably positioned coronal hole.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

** Aurora Watch in Effect **

After a brief quiet period, activity is picking up a little bit.
First of all, although it wasn't anything to write home about, we did
see some G-1 geeomagnetic storm conditions in response to the high
speed coronal hole solar wind stream I mentioned in my last report.
There is now another coronal hole that has rotated into an
Earth-pointing position, and we may see some solar wind gusts from it
on or about the 4th.  In addition to the coronal holes, there has also
been some flare and CME activity.  On the 1st, sunspot region 708
fired off an M-1 class flare, which was what I'd call a medium
duration event.  The resultant CME was not squarely Earth-directed,
but SOHO coronagraph imagery appears to show a faint halo component to
it.  We could receive a glancing blow from it on the 3rd.  As I write
this, another M-1 flare is in progress.  It looks to be about an M-1.5
event, and the declining phase is stretching enough so that it could
be either a medium or long duration flare.  Watch this space for
updates on any associated CME activity as SOHO images become
available.  There are three sunspot regions visible, with the
aforementioned region 708 being the most active.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 62
SFI : 106
A index : 4
K index : 0

Solar wind speed : 437.6 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.2 nPa

IMF : 2.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.7 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class activity is
possible in Regions 707 and 708.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet. Activity levels
may increase by 05 Dec as another coronal hole high-speed stream
rotates into position.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
01-Dec-2004   	  0720Z   	  M1.1
02-Dec-2004   	  2355Z   	  M1.5 (estimated)

** Aurora Watch In Effect **

You don't see an A index of 0 with an aurora watch in effect just
every day, but that's the case tonight.  Conditions are quiet for the
time being, but a full-halo CME from an M1.5 flare which occurred very
early on the 3rd is on the way, and should hit sometime before midday
Sunday.  It is predicted that geomagnetic storm conditions will be the
result, but time will tell.  There is also a coronal hole that will be
sending some solar wind gusts our way which should arrive sometime on
the 5th.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 43
SFI : 97
A index : 0
K index : 2

Solar wind speed : 349.2 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.8 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.2 nPa

IMF : 9.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.3 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Small flares could
occur in Regions 707 and 708. An isolated M-class flare is possible in
708 but will become less likely as the region decays.

Geomagnetic activity forcast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet until the arrival of
the CME associated with the M1 flare on 03 Dec. Arrival is still
expected before mid-day on 05 Dec. Geomagnetic storm conditions are
possible on 05 Dec as a result of the CME and the influence of an
anticipated high-speed coronal hole stream in the same time period.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
02-Dec-2004   	  0006Z   	  M1.5

Some brief geomagnetic storm conditions have been seen over the last
couple of days, but not enough to cause any aurora to speak of.
Everything looks pretty quiet for the time being, with the lone
visible sunspot region, region 708, about to rotate over the western
limb of the solar disk.  With no coronal holes in a position to send
anything our way, The next few days should be quite uneventful.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 40
SFI : 81
A index : 11
K index : 2

Solar wind speed : 429.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.6 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.2 nPa

IMF : 4.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.7 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A9

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. An isolated C-class
flare is possible.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with
isolated active periods.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed over the last
couple of days, although no aurora to speak of have been seen.  The
cause of the activity has been some minor solar wind gusts that
carried a south-pointing interplanetary magnetic field.  A
south-pointing IMF weakens Earth's magnetic field, which allows solar
wind paarticles to penetrate deeper into Earth's magnetosphere.  The
result can be geomagnetic storm conditions and aurora.  The is only
one sunspot region visible at the present time, and it doesn't appear
to have the potential for generating any significant flares.  A
coronal hole is rotating towards an Earth-pointing position, and we
could see some solar wind gusts from it on or about the 16th.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 26
SFI : 91
A index : 27
K index : 4

Solar wind speed : 397.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.1 protons/cc
Solare wind pressure : 0.2 nPa

IMF : 14.3 nT
IMF Orientation : 6.8 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A8

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to
unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible on 13
December in response to the potential for southward Bz oscillations
and a slightly elevated solar wind.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None