** Aurora Watch In Effect **

The Earth is in a high speed solar wind stream coming from a coronal
hole, although so far, there hasn't been much in the way of
geomagnetic activity in response to it.  Nevertheless, an aurora watch
is in effect, and skywatchers in the higher latitudes should keep an
eye out for aurora.  After being completely devoid of sunspots not
long ago, the sun is now peppered with seven numbered sunspot regions.
  Of the group, sunspot regions 782 and 783 are the largest, and are
growing in size.  Neither of them appear to have the magnetic
complexity to generate a significant flare, but stay tuned.  That
could change.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 168
SFI : 124
A index : 16
K index : 4

Solar wind speed : 537.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.8 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa

IMF : 4.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.2 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B3

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for
an isolated M-class during the next three days (3-5 July). Of the
eight spotted regions on the disk, 785 and 783 appear to be the most
likely sources for future M-class level activity.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled, but
there is a continued chance for occasional active periods during the
next two days (03-04 July) as effects from the coronal hole are
expected to linger. Conditions should decline to mostly quiet by the
third day (05 July).

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

** Aurora Watch In Effect **

Sunspot region 786 had been looking for several days like it might
have the potential for a producing a significant flare.  Earlier
today, it lived up to its potential in the form of an M-4 class flare.
  That's the first significant flare we've seen in awhile.  There was a
full-halo CME associated with the event, although it was somewhat
faint.  Nevertheless, it's on its way here, and be looking for it to
arrive on the 9th or 10th.  There are four numbered sunspot regions
visible, and region 786 is squarely in an Earth-pointing position.  It
also has the potential for producing more significant flares.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 149
SFI : 123
A index : 4
K index : 2

Solar wind speed : 324.7 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.8 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.6 nPa

IMF : 3.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.8 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B3

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 786 is
capable of producing an isolated M-class event.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
with isolated periods of minor storm conditions. Activity is expected
due to possible effects from the CME observed on 05 July, a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream, today's M4 halo CME, and the CME
associated with the disappearing filament centered at N07E00.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
07-Jul-2005   	  1629Z   	  M4.9

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/sat_ir_p.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/sat_ir_p.gif

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/index.html

Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day
Av.SOI Av.SOI

8-Jul-2005 1014.86 1013.55 2.20 0.72 -8.25

Long Paddock data is in. Holding neutral. ITCZ in EPAC all but gone
as Dennis literally sucks the cloud organizing energy away from the
storm, causing the region to go fair weather. Meanwhile, the Pacific
high has grown from yesterday--man was it hot here today. The jet is
back up to its pushing north than dragging south cold air to the
CONUS from Canada, and a healthy thunderstorm is running south from
the north mid CONUS. Really healthy for 2 am west coast time. This
bodes really badly for maintaining intensification later in the GOM,
IMHO. That's because by main daylight convection time this front is
going to have a huge number of strikes associated with it, and that
will power the storm. This will occur while the storm is crossing
Cuba and vulnerable to weakening due to a lack of well defined
surface coupling with the conductive ocean.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

I like to take this above link and then hand change the 20 to 19 and
18 and so forth and then that a straight edge and toggle from the eye
to get my own sense of direction of the storm.  But if you have
radar, you can do the same thing:

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/cienfuegosa.gif


  Keep in mind that Cuba is not conductive compared to the sea to the
south of it, and when you have a pin hole eye all of the cloud
organizing properties come from the couplings between ionosphere and
ocean--this makes it difficult for a powerful hurricane like this to
cross over unless there is significant barotropical momentum for that
to occur, and the angles here may not favor such an early cross over.
Then you have to combine that with this new thunderstorm activity
north of the old frontal boundary--and I am telling you, this will
cause INTENSE microphysics changes to the north of the storm and make
it impossible for convection to occur, the air subsists, and high
pressure builds. That means this hurricane essentially maintains its
track--which is hardly curving into South Florida. The issue is then
what side of the Mississippi delta. I suppose I should hold my
position from March 31 and say just to the west of the delta, but
this is so soon after Cindy that I am not sure of my own projection.

For those interested in following the strike numbers in the CONUS,
the link is
http://www.lightningstorm.com and it's free.

Sunspot region 786 is approaching the western limb of the solar disk,
but it darn sure isn't going quietly.  There have been three M-class
flares within the last 24 hours, the background X-ray flux has risen
rather sharply, and at least one CME is on the way towards Earth.
Look for it to be arriving along about the 15th.  G-1 and G-2
geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within the last 24
hours in response to another CME that was produced by an M-class flare
that happened on thr 9th.  Judging from the GOES-12 X-ray plots, it
looks like region 786 is going to continue to be active until it
rotates out of view.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 52
SFI : 96
A index : 32
K index : 2

Solar wind speed : 503.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.6 nPa

IMF : 9.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 9.4 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B7

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class
activity is possible from Region 786.

Geomagnatic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm
levels. Isolated active periods are possible on 13 and 14 July. Minor
storm conditions are possible on 15 July associated with today's CME
activity.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
12-Jul-2005   	  2252Z   	  M1.3
   12-Jul-2005   	  1624Z   	  M1.5
   12-Jul-2005   	  1306Z   	  M1.0
   09-Jul-2005   	  2206Z   	  M2.8

Sunspot region 786 has rotated out of view after launching a massive
X1.2 class flare.  Region 790 then got into the act by producing an
M1.0 shot, but it is also on the western limb of the solar disk.
Trailing behind region 790 is...nothing.  The solar disk is blank.  We
could see the sunspot number drop to zero, or close to it.  Just to
keep things from getting completely boring, however, is a coronal hole
that has rotated into view.  We should start seeing some solar wind
gusts from it along about the 20th.  It isn't likely we'll see any
geomagnetic activity from the aforementioned flares.  There were CME's
produced, but they weren't really Earth-directed.  We did receive a
gentle glancing blow from them, but that's about it.  The official
forecast calls for a chance of G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions, but
personally, I don't see it happening.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 16
SFI : 76
A index : 14
K index : 3

Solar wind speed : 505.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.0 nPa

IMF : 7.3 nT
IMF Orientation : 5.8 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
the R1 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 790 remains
capable of producing an isolated M-class flare.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions may be possible with the onset of the
anticipated transient from the CME activity that occurred on 14 July.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the
period on 17 July.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
16-Jul-2005   	  0338Z   	  M1.0
   14-Jul-2005   	  2257Z   	  M1.1
   14-Jul-2005   	  1725Z   	  M1.3
   14-Jul-2005   	  1055Z   	  X1.2
   14-Jul-2005   	  0725Z   	  M9.1
   14-Jul-2005   	  0323Z   	  M1.0

When sunspot region 786 rotated out of view, the sunspot number
dropped as low as it can get.  It dropped to zero.  And it has stayed
there for several days.  That might be an indicator that the solar
minimum will arrive a little sooner than the projections say, which is
January of 2007.  Time will tell.  Anyway, the Earth is inside of a
solar wind stream coming from a coronal hole, and the speed is in the
mid-500's.  Thusfar, there hasn't been any geomagnetic activity, and
none is forecasted.  Despite the solar disk being currently devoid of
sunspots, that may be about to change.  Something launched a big CME
off of the backside of the sun, and it was close enough to the eastern
limb to be visible.  Additionally, the background X-ray flux is
beginning to rise, which is an indicator that there is a sunspot
approaching.  Stay tuned.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 0
SFI : 74
A index : 13
K index : 3

Solar wind speed : 558.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.6 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.4 nPa

IMF : 2.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.4 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A1

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
on 23 July as the coronal hole high speed stream wanes. Predominantly
quiet conditions are expected on 24 and 25 July.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **

Sunspot region 786 has returned in the form of sunspot region 792, and
it is still as active as it was last time around.  Last time by, it
was the source of a massive X-class flare.  While we haven't seen any
X-class events yet, it has launched three M-class flares, one being a
very respectable X4.8 flare.  This sunspot region will definitely bear
watching as it rotates closer to an Earth-pointing position.
Meanwhile, the Earth has entered a high speed solar wind stream coming
from a coronal hole.  G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been
observed within the last 24 hours, although there haven't been any
reports of aurora yet.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 29
SFI : 96
A index : 22
K index : 3

Solar wind speed : 613.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.5 nPa

IMF : 7.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1
level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Solar
radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to moderate with Region 792 as the dominant
source of activity. There is also a slight chance for major flare
activity from this group.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance
for some active periods for 29 July. Conditions are expected to
decline to predominantly unsettled for 30 July and should be quiet to
unsettled for 31 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to end sometime on 29 July, provided that no new particles
are accelerated by new activity from Region 792.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
28-Jul-2005   	  2208Z   	  M4.8
   28-Jul-2005   	  0030Z   	  M1.0
   27-Jul-2005   	  0502Z   	  M3.7

Heat wave in Oz, a bio electrical view:

Regional factors:

Monthly SOI value in April (negative favors electrical flow to the
West Pacific):

2005  4   -10.8  3

See:
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
lationIndex/SOIDataFiles/index.html

Tidal wave made Indian Ocean poorly conductive, so there was no place
to put these excess electrical charge accumulations except to OZ


09 MAR-14 MAR 2005

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_indian/2005/WILLY/

Cyclone WILLY
ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
   1 -13.70  118.10 03/09/18Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
  1A -13.70  118.10 03/09/18Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
   2 -14.40  115.70 03/10/06Z   55     - TROPICAL STORM
   3 -15.40  114.50 03/10/18Z   65     - CYCLONE-1
   4 -16.50  112.60 03/11/06Z   90     - CYCLONE-2
   5 -17.40  112.10 03/11/12Z   90     - CYCLONE-2
   6 -17.80  111.70 03/11/18Z   90     - CYCLONE-2
   7 -18.60  111.20 03/12/00Z   90     - CYCLONE-2
   8 -19.80  110.20 03/12/06Z   80     - CYCLONE-1
   9 -20.40  109.80 03/12/12Z   75     - CYCLONE-1
  10 -21.10  109.00 03/13/00Z   75     - CYCLONE-1
  11 -21.50  108.00 01/13/12Z   55     - TROPICAL STORM
  12 -21.70  107.50 01/14/00Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_pacific/2005/INGRID/

Date: 06-11 MAR 2005
Cyclone INGRID
ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
   1 -13.20  148.30 03/06/06Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
   2 -13.70  149.00 03/06/18Z   75     - CYCLONE-1
   3 -14.20  148.60 03/07/06Z  120     - CYCLONE-4
   4 -13.90  148.00 03/07/18Z  130     - CYCLONE-4
   5 -13.90  146.90 03/08/06Z  130     - CYCLONE-4
   6 -13.80  146.00 03/08/18Z  105     - CYCLONE-3
   7 -13.60  145.00 03/09/06Z  105     - CYCLONE-3
   8 -13.20  143.70 03/09/18Z  100     - CYCLONE-3
   9 -13.50  141.70 03/10/06Z   65     - CYCLONE-1
  11 -12.30  138.70 03/11/06Z   80     - CYCLONE-1
  12 -12.20  137.80 03/11/12Z  120     - CYCLONE-4
  13 -11.90  136.80 03/11/18Z  120     - CYCLONE-4


http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_indian/2005/INGRID/


Date: 12-15 MAR 2005
Cyclone INGRID
ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  14 -11.60  134.90 03/12/06Z  135     - CYCLONE-4
  15 -11.30  132.60 03/12/18Z  120     - CYCLONE-4
  16 -11.40  131.10 03/13/06Z  100     - CYCLONE-3
  17 -11.60  130.20 01/13/18Z  100     - CYCLONE-3
  18 -11.70  129.20 01/14/06Z  100     - CYCLONE-3
  19 -12.30  128.30 03/14/18Z  115     - CYCLONE-4
  20 -13.20  127.50 03/15/06Z  130     - CYCLONE-4
  21 -14.50  126.80 03/15/18Z   90     - CYCLONE-2





Ocean Blooms in the Wake of Cyclone Willy

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php
3?img_id=12782

So storms in region roiled nutrients to the surface and created bloom
conditions.  Conductivity rises.  Excess currents to OZ causes cloud
microphysics to be very difficult in formation, and high pressure
builds over land.  Heat wave created.  Again, this is about
viscosity  Note cool regions to south--this is an electrical
phenomenon from the north and sides of OZ.


Record Hot April in Australia

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php
3?img_id=12870

A gentleman by the name of Jim Hughes has recently been discussing
space weather with me.  Perhaps you know of him.

He contends that when the wind speeds drop below 500 that tropical
storms form--over that speed they don't.   I saw real time this was
true with respect to Dennis and Emily.

Do you have any thoughts about this?

--- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
<narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
> A gentleman by the name of Jim Hughes has recently been discussing
> space weather with me.  Perhaps you know of him.
>
> He contends that when the wind speeds drop below 500 that tropical
> storms form--over that speed they don't.   I saw real time this was
> true with respect to Dennis and Emily.
>
> Do you have any thoughts about this?

I haven't heard the name before, but I'll see what I can find out
about him.

The solar wind speed is only part of the equation.  There's the solar
wind density, and the interplanetary magnetic field.  The
interplanetary magnetic field is actually an extension of the sun's
magnetic field that is carried along by the solar wind.  The IMF can
be either north or south-pointing.  If it's south-pointing, the IMF
will essentially collide with and weaken Earth's magnetic field, and
allow the solar wind to penetrate deeped down.  That has the effect of
enhancing geomagnetic activity.

So, while a high-speed solar wind will pack a harder punch into
Earth's magnetic field, that's only part of the story.  I would be
interested to know how Mr. Hughes factors in the IMF, and also the
solar wind density.

I would also be curious if there is any data concerning tropical storm
formation in relation to the 11 year sunspot cycle.  During the period
of time around the cycle peaks, there would be more days during which
the solar wind speed would be > 500 km/sec due to the increased
sunspot activity.  If Mr. Hughes's theory is correct, it seems that it
would translate to fewer tropical storms around the solar max, and
more around the solar minimum.

It's a shame we don't have any tropical storm data from the time of
the Maunder Minimum!

Sunspot region 792, formerly known as 786, is showing that it is still
quite active.  It launched a massive X1.3 flare on 7/30.  This was a
long-duration event, and as I've mentioned before, long-duration
flares are more likely to produce a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).
That's when a billion or more tons of white-hot plasma leaves the sun
travelling around a million miles an hour.  When a CME collides with
Earth's magnetic field, the effect can be dramatic, and breathtakingly
beautiful when the auroras light up.  Due to the location of region
792 when the X1.3 flare was produced, that being close to the eastern
limb of the solar disk, we here at Earth received only a gentle brush
from the CME, and the effect was light.  It was still, however, enough
to set off an S-1 class solar radiation storm.  You can bet that NASA
is watching region 792 closely.  In the middle of a spacewalk is not a
good place to be in a heavy solar radiation storm.  As region 792
continues to rotate around, it gets closer to an Earth-pointing
position.  Keep an eye on it.  Its complex magnetic field shows it
still has the potential of firing off a major flare.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 102
SFI : 111
A index : 17
K index : 3

Solar wind speed : 485.2 km/sec
Solar wind density : 5.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.3 nPa

IMF : 6.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B2

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 792 is
capable of producing M-class flares.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to
unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on 04 August
due to a glancing blow from the CME that was associated with the M1/1f
flare that occurred today.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
01-Aug-2005   	  1351Z   	  M1.0
   31-Jul-2005   	  1224Z   	  M1.1
   30-Jul-2005   	  0635Z   	  X1.3

David,

Here is a conversation that I had with him that really is a
conversation that we've been perculating here for years.

Jim Hughes wrote:

"The size of the eruption...magnetic field...location etc. play a
much bigger role then the flares x-ray size. Even a smaller class C-
flare can bombard the earth with more particles than then the bigger
ones sometimes. "


I wrote:

There is an electron belt (-), a proton belt (+)--the so called van
Allen belts, and then the upper ionosphere (-), the lower ionosphere
(+), and ground (-) and a notion that opposing charges are attracted
to each other. A proton wind can essentially distort orders brought
about by a living earth. Interestingly, I learned from you space
weather people that the distortion in the van Allen belts following
rapid changes in SSTs at the end of the 1997-8 El Nino were triggered
by a solar wind change:

Quote:

"[A]round May 8, 1998, there were a series of large, solar
disturbances that caused a new radiation belt to form in the so-
called "slot region" between the inner and outer van Allen belts. The
new belt eventually disappeared once the solar activity subsided.

http://www.centennialofflight.gov/essay/Dictionary/RADIATION_BELTS/DI1
60.htm

The cloud behaviors changed so dramatically that incredibly rapid SST
changes occurred:

For SST changes, see:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/anom.5.9.1998.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/anomnight.6.9.1998
.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

Electrical change later equates to a thermal change. How does this
happen? What is occurring? There is a device in electronics called a
capacitor. Picture two 'T's head up against each other. Capacitors
are used to pass alternating currents like the kind of electrical
current in the plug that drives your computer. Capacitors are NOT
designed to pass a direct current. One cool thing about EMFs is that
they pass in space. Particles, too, move in space. BUT, electrical
currents, direct ones, do not. Confused? Did you know there is a
difference between materials as insulating to an ELECTRICAL CURRENT
but not to a MAGENTIC FIELD? Still confused?

When a capacitor has an applied direct current of a positive voltage
to one end, this will cause the other end, the plate, to have the
opposite charge. That is because the flux lines created by the ions
on the plate, or the magnetic field of the electrical current, will
pass across the capicitor even though the current will not.

When it comes to an alternating current (think sine wave) in a
perfect capacitor the signal will pass as the electrons on either end
of the plates will always go the other way, so you get an output
signal that they say is 180 degrees out of phase of the input signal.

In the case of earth's belts and ionosphere, they act as coincentric
spheres that trap conductive particles in shapes much like a virtual
plate to a capacitor. Since a hurricane moves, and its clouds act to
focus the field due to the differences in dielectric constants
between air (eye) DC=1, clouds DC=80 and cold clouds DC=88, you have
a wave features to the capacitor behaviors. Strikes in regions near
tropical storms then act to 'power' that capacitive coupling--and
impacts the cloud microphysics that conform to the electrical orders
brought about by the barotropical orders.


  . . .



http://science.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd23sep98_1.htm

Quote:

"Rarely seen lightning fields and purple sprites were detected in the
eye of the hurricane by the ER-2 pilot as he flew more than 19.8 km
(65,000 ft) above the Atlantic."


That would be the capactive state. The direct currents, or the
strikes, are rare:

Quote:
"Surprisingly, not much lightning occurs in the inner core within
about 100 km or 60 mi of the tropical cyclone center. Only around a
dozen or less cloud-to-ground strikes per hour occur around the
eyewall of the storm...."


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G10.htm

Consistent with this, Burke et al. [1992] has reported the detection
of keV electrons and large electric field transients above a
hurricane. These various observations all suggest that what is
occurring at the ocean surface couples to the ionosphere. The
coupling mechanisms was said by them not to be well understood, but
it seems probable that "capacitive coupling" through the displacement
current may drive conduction currents within the ionosphere [Hale and
Baginski, 1987].

Let me see if I can put this into English. Say there is a huge
relatively positive charge above an eye in a hurricane. This is what
has been observed, BTW by Burke et al.--because negative electrons
charges implies nearby positive charges, and overall the ionosphere
is positively charged relative to the surface. Now, lightning does
not occur much inside a tropical storm. So those charge accumulations-
-that huge, have to be held there by some force. In this case, the
topology of the hurricane itself both prevents the charges from
moving and at the same time provides magnetic flux lines that hold
the charges in place.

In this case, the ocean below the tropical storm provides a
conductive area where opposing charges are held on the ocean surface,
and held the more due to the fact that as the surface low roils and
depressurizes the oceans, CO2 comes out of solution and rises to the
surface, where it runs back to ion form, increasing the surface
conductivity by an increased ion count in the context of the same
electrical fields that influence the chemical equillibrium constant
toward the production of more ions.

Now, what does this have to do with space weather? Well, the fact is,
after the lower ionosphere, which is positively charged, there is the
upper ionosphere, then the proton and electron containing van Allen
belts, also which would hold by the same capacitive couplings
opposing charges above each successive layer. If space weather comes
and distorts these fields, which it does, it impacts the stability of
the ionosphere above the tropical storm, and then that instability
impacts the cloud microphysics which are impacted by the DC coupling
in the eye and storm convection edges, feeder bands. Again, the self
organization is due to the fact that water has a greater dielectric
constant over air.


. . .

I have a question for you.

High frequency light would tend to cause O2 to be split into ozone at
a higher rate. So after a period of solar activity, which may by
itself disrupt the capacitive couplings that organize a storm, should
the space wind drop and the event wane, there is still then a
remaining relatively increased level of ozone, which is of course
conductive, that may increase the conductivity of the ionosphere and
increase the ability for an intense capacitive coupling to occur that
has the degree of power to cause the cloud microphysics changes
required for a tropical storm to form.

In any event, with the next storm to come I will point out some
specific mesovortices bahaviors tied to lightning, which but for an
EMF connection should have NOTHING to do with such a behavior from a
purely barotropical standpoint (especially if the strikes are in the
CONUS in the afternoon when the tropical storm is on the night side
of the planet. There is no other reasonable explaination.) Occum's
razer, baby. Just sliced you.


Then Jim Hughes wrote back:

"Yes Mike you can have an increase in ozone production during
increased solar activity.. not sure about the exact numbers... but
you can also have a reversed relationship occur during large proton
flares.

I think I recall reading that the one last January , second only to
the October 1989 proton flare reduced the ozone by approximately 1%.
That's pretty big in the whole scheme of things....Major stratwarm
followed down the road a bit at the 30 hPa level I believe it was
also related to the QBO / solar hemisphere origin. "


I wrote back:

"Now, the question is is that reduction due to the proton flow
UNIFORM. No way it is. The protons run along the closing isobars of
the earth EMF whereas the high freq light runs to the tropics. If
anything, the lack of ozone in the temp zones with its increased
levels in the tropics produces capacitive couplings to a greater
organized degree in the tropics!!!

I just caused a huge amount of controversy at Storm2k bb.

Not flaming or anything like that.  Simply stating the theory
discussed at our club.  Posters lied about what I wrote, and
complained to the admin, and my posts were deleted--TWICE.  We
weren't posting on other threads--simply made a thread on space
weather and the fur flied.  Ten times the heat and passion compared
to the debate between the warmers and fake skeptics.

There was a poster their named Jim Hughes who has a theory that when
the solar winds drop below 500 tropical formations occur.  I
explained why and it drove the barotropic thinkers nuts.  Here is
some of that conversation (lucky I saved it):


http://groups.yahoo.com/group/methanehydrateclub/message/2477


The kiss of death to the thread occurred when a respected but
ignorant baratropic posters there posted this:

Posted: Tue Aug 02, 2005 8:51 am

----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Mike Doran wrote:
x-y-no wrote:

"Then we have Mike Doran's posts, which I can't make any coherent
sense of. It appears he's got some variant of the Gaia hypothesis
going, but what it's all about I can't divine.

Jan "

And part of my reply back to him was:

"Well then we are even. Because you refuse to state what it is you
cannot 'divine', I cannot communicate with you. This is about the
same as blaming yourself for my ignorance, and it is equally
insulting."

And the reply that ended the thread, that had about a thousand hits
in a day:

"LOL! I stated quite clearly what it is I can't divine: any coherent
hypothesis on your part. I'm sorry if it insults you for me to say
this, but you're just tossing out all kinds of stuff, some valid,
much not valid (for example the false notion that there is large
electric charge separation in hurricanes, or the odd notion that "
the ocean below the tropical storm provides a conductive area where
opposing charges are held on the ocean surface" when clearly a more
conductive condition would dissipate charge separation) and then
assert that this supports something or other.

I'm sure there are people in this forum, myself included, who would
be willing to help you think rigorously about the electrical
properties of weather systems, if that's what you want to do. But the
approach you are using so far just won't cut it. "

Since there may be some confusion here that on the barotropical
poster which is difficult to fanthom anywhere, I will explain why
what he is saying is false and misleading.

Let's start with the assertion that I said that there are charge
separations in hurricanes.  That is patently false.  Charge
separations that increase the positive potential in the ionosphere
occur from strikes, largely over the terresphere from thunderstorms.
Hurricanes that are well organized have few strikes.  The positive
potential in the ionosphere  is merely organized in the conductive
ionosphere and couples with the ocean in a capacitive manner.  Here
representative is a static field diagram of this.  Note that no
current is flowing is pictured flowing from ionosphere to ocean, and
it does not depend on strikes in the hurricane.  Movement of the
hurricane causes current movement in the ionosphere and ocean, not
between the ionosphere and ocean:


IONOSPHERE

....................-..............-
.....................\............/
......................\........../
.......................v .......v
........................^......^
.........................\..../
..........................\../
..........................+.+
....- -----><----- + - + -----><----- -
............................+
............................|
............................|
............................v
............................^
............................|
............................|
............................-
ATLANTIC SURFACE

....................+..............+
.....................\............/
......................\........../
.......................v .......v
........................^......^
.........................\..../
..........................\../
..........................-.-
...+ -----><----- - + - -----><----- +
............................-
............................|
............................|
............................v
............................^
............................|
............................|
............................+
Ionosphere Ocean Capacitive Coupling above Eye:

............................+..-..+
............................|..|..|
............................|..|..|
............................v..v..v
............................^..^..^
............................|..|..|
............................|..|..|
............................-..+..-


Finally, the notion that the more conductive the virtual capacitor
that a hurricane is, that this "would dissipate charge separation" is
absurd.  Indeed, capacitors are made of conductive material so that
the magnetic field lines can more easily move the charges into
equilibrium or magnetic stability.  Perhaps the most famous example
of this is the ark of the covenant mentioned in the bible.  It was
covered with gold--and gold is HIGHLY conductive.

--- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
<narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
> David,
>
> Here is a conversation that I had with him that really is a
> conversation that we've been perculating here for years.
>
> Jim Hughes wrote:
>
> "The size of the eruption...magnetic field...location etc. play a
> much bigger role then the flares x-ray size. Even a smaller class C-
> flare can bombard the earth with more particles than then the bigger
> ones sometimes. "

He's got it right.  X-ray flux is only part of the picture.  A
long-duration C-class flare can pack a bigger CME wallop than a
short-duration M or even X flare.

Mike Doran wrote:

"Caracus 1999 was due to dam changes in the region, again, impacting
the conductivity of the regions oceans and its ability tho support a
surface low sustaining its electrical conductivity over time despite
roiling and depressurization depleting ocean carbonation."

and "But IMHO in following the dam constructions and flow and
sediment delays, it was pretty clear that for several years the
Carribean was impacted by the changes to the Orinoco from huge
hydroelectric projects in the region."

I would be interested in some detailed citations supporting these
assertions, since they don't seem very likely to me, for the
following reasons:

1) My impression is that it is pretty well established that El Nin~os
cause low rainfall in Venezuela and La Nin~as cause heavy rainfall
there.

2) The Guri project on the Caroni is one of the world's largest, but
the reservoir started filling in the late 60's or early 70's and the
project was fully operational in 1978, 21 years before the 1999
floods and mudslides. The Macagua dam is a run of the river project
near the confluence of the Caroni and the Orinoco. Carauchi, between
Macagua and Guri is partly operational. The two reservoirs below Guri
will not have much impact on flow and sediment. What sediment there
is is being trapped in the Guri reservoir -- and has been for about
25 years. More dams are planned on the Caroni, both above and below
Guri and will equally have little incremental impact on sediment
entering the Orinoco and less impact on sediment entering the North
Atlantic, because ...

3) The Caroni and the other right-bank tributaries of the Orinoco are
blackwater rivers with a load of dissolved organic carbon (tinting
them), but very little suspended material or electrolytes. Almost all
of the sediment load in the Orinoco is dumped in the river by the
left-bank tributaries, most prominently the Apure, which arise in the
Andes and the northern mountains of Venezuela and drain the huge
Venezuelan llanos. There has been little or no dam-building on those
rivers and no significant reduction their sediment load or in the
overall Orinoco sediment and electrolyte load. See (in English) and .

4) From experience of living in Venezuela in the mid-60s and many
visits to Caracas, I will assert that the slopes of the Pico Avila
chain between the Valley of Caracas and the Caribbean were on their
way to being a mudslide waiting to happen, with settlement moving up
the slopes and deforestation.

5) I find nothing in the cited Bates et al. paper to support the idea
that formation and sustenance of low pressure systems over the ocean
depends on electrical conductivity. Do you have some sources for that
belief



http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/LENNY/track_s.gif

Hurricane LENNY (13-23 NOV)
Storm - Max Winds: 135 Min Pres: 933 Category: 4

What happens with the hurricane is is causes upwelling of nutrients
and blooms follow.  Blooms create increased conductive regions for
capacitive couplings.  See:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php
3?img_id=12782

But in zones with hydrates, even as the ocean loses its 'charge' of
CO2 from roiling and depressurization, the hydrate fields tend to
regulate that CO2 back to normal levels more quickly.  See:

http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/hydrates/where.html

Note the hydrate field just outside the Orinoco.




Daily SOI readings positive or rising positive.


http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
lationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

Year Day  Tahiti  Darwin     SOI

1999 316 1010.59 1010.75  -19.36
1999 317 1008.00 1009.85  -30.10
1999 318 1007.71 1009.60  -30.34
1999 319 1010.75 1009.45  -10.06
1999 320 1013.23 1010.10    1.56
1999 321 1014.31 1010.10    8.48
1999 322 1014.01 1009.00   13.57
1999 323 1013.73 1007.60   20.65
1999 324 1012.75 1008.25   10.31
1999 325 1014.54 1008.75   18.50
1999 326 1015.88 1009.60   21.61
1999 327 1014.48 1008.80   17.79
1999 328 1013.65 1007.80   18.90
1999 329 1013.78 1006.75   26.38
1999 330 1014.15 1006.50   30.36
1999 331 1012.50 1006.85   17.63
1999 332 1011.83 1005.45   22.24
1999 333 1011.63 1005.00   23.83
1999 334 1012.34 1005.90   22.64
1999 335 1014.86 1006.75   22.80
1999 336 1015.76 1008.55   18.13
1999 337 1015.65 1007.70   21.96
1999 338 1014.38 1008.30   12.22
1999 339 1012.88 1007.30    9.63
1999 340 1012.98 1007.25   10.41
1999 341 1012.99 1007.25   10.47
1999 342 1011.80 1006.55    7.94
1999 343 1012.14 1005.90   13.07
1999 344 1013.16 1005.20   22.02
1999 345 1012.90 1006.10   15.99
1999 346 1012.75 1006.55   12.87
1999 347 1012.18 1006.20   11.70
1999 348 1011.65 1005.95   10.28
1999 349 1012.71 1006.30   13.98
1999 350 1014.45 1007.10   18.84
1999 351 1014.60 1006.50   22.73****
1999 352 1012.64 1006.05   14.88
1999 353 1011.54 1006.20    8.40
1999 354 1011.46 1006.60    5.93
1999 355 1013.13 1007.05   12.22
1999 356 1012.94 1006.50   14.11****
1999 357 1012.20 1006.40   10.80
1999 358 1009.93 1007.55   -6.98
1999 359 1010.09 1006.25    0.61
1999 360 1011.19 1006.65    4.24
1999 361 1012.30 1007.15    7.42
1999 362 1012.46 1007.85    4.63
1999 363 1013.09 1006.45   15.14
1999 364 1013.19 1004.90   23.71
1999 365 1012.84 1005.80   17.22


http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

Check out SSTs for dates before and after the event:


3/30/1999

12/21/1999

Please examine the SST anomolies in July  of the year following the
event--seven months later:

7/22/2000


Appreciate that warmer is more conductive--about a percent drop in
resistance per degF.  But those SSTs are connected to macrobiological
and electrical conditions.

Note in the above how all of the water from the Orinoco to the West
Africa coast was anomoly warm while water almost
everywhere else is either cold or very cold.

Six months before in 1999 it was the same story, anomoly cool summer
SSTs later warm.

Keep in mind that the hydrate fields require sedimentation to combine
with they hydrates to cause them to not weigh less than the ocean
around them.  So over a longer period with the dams they begin to
give off methane from previous times.

The real key to appreciating the flooding in Caracus is the West
African dams ALONG with the changes to the Orinoco over a period of
time.  For a rain event to be sustained it must have 'power' in
terrestrial convection, thunderstorms, and if connected to Africa,
electrically, by the ITCZ region, by conductive oceans, strikes from
Africa combine with strikes over the the Americas.  Africa is the
most struck place on earth there.  Plus with the positive SOI index,
electrical conditions from the Pacific favored the event as well.  If
the oceans were warmer and the conditions were earlier in the year,
the ionosphere would extend further north and the oceans would be
warm enough that the convection would move more north.  But time of
year provided for capacitive couplings and no other place for that
precipitation to go.

After causing quite a bit of excitement as it was emerging over the
sun's eastern limb, sunspot region 792 has calmed down some, although
it still has the potential of generating an M-class flare.  The last
few days have seen on-and-off G-1 geomagnetic storm activity as a
result of region 792's earlier outbursts.  Along with region 792,
region 794 also has the potential for producing an M-class flare.  The
solar wind speed is in the 700 km/sec range, and should remain
elevated for the next couple of days.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 54
SFI : 93
A index : 30
K index : 3

Solar wind speed : 703.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.4 nPa

IMF : 6.1 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.5 nT South

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
with a chance for minor storm conditions for the next three days
(07-09 August).

Recent significant solar flare activity :
03-Aug-2005   	  0506Z   	  M3.4
   02-Aug-2005   	  1831Z   	  M4.2

Is this idea that life comes from inputs, which is not true.  Life
comes from modulations of inputs:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050808/sc_nm/science_canada_meteors_dc

"Meteor strikes may have aided early life-study

Researchers found that in addition to hydrothermal springs, meteor
impacts would have allowed microbes easier access to minerals in a
protected environment.

Osinski noted that the heaviest meteor bombardment of Earth happened
about 3.8 billion years ago, around the same time that life on the
planet is believed to have started.

The researchers reported their study on Monday in Calgary, Alberta,
during a joint meeting of the Geological Society of America and the
Geological Association of Canada.

The Haughton crater on Devon Island in Canada's Nunavut Territory is
often used by researchers looking at methods to aid the search for
life on Mars."

Life comes from dampening feedbacks, creating complexity in so doing.

To sum:

Burke et al. [1992] has reported the detection of keV electrons and
large electric field transients above a hurricane. These various
observations all suggest that what is occurring at great depths in
the ocean may couple to the ionosphere. The coupling mechanisms was
said by them not to be well understood, but it seems probable
that "capacitive coupling" through the displacement current my drive
conduction currents within the ionosphere [Hale and Baginski, 1987].
How do these couplings appear?:

IONOSPHERE

....................-..............-
.....................\............/
......................\........../
.......................v .......v
........................^......^
.........................\..../
..........................\../
..........................+.+
....- -----><----- + - + -----><----- -
............................+
............................|
............................|
............................v
............................^
............................|
............................|
............................-

TROPICAL OCEAN SURFACE

....................+..............+
.....................\............/
......................\........../
.......................v .......v
........................^......^
.........................\..../
..........................\../
..........................-.-
...+ -----><----- - + - -----><----- +
............................-
............................|
............................|
............................v
............................^
............................|
............................|
............................+


Ionosphere Ocean Capacitive Coupling above Eye:

............................+..-..+
............................|..|..|
............................|..|..|
............................v..v..v
............................^..^..^
............................|..|..|
............................|..|..|
............................-..+..-


What then happens to the microphysics in clouds in tropical storms
with such displacement currents?


http://www.ichmt.org/abstracts/Vim-01/abstracts/04-01.pdf


What does CO2 mean as an ELECTRICAL forcing with respect to ion
levels on the ocean surface as the carbination comes out of solution
and then is redissolved?

Think space weather is not important here with respect to tropical
systems?  I here have mention that when the solar winds drop below
500 there are increases in activity.  Why?  Why would the QBO, an ion
wind, have an impact on cyclogenesis as William Gray reports?

The big guns study space weather now.  GOES variant N in equipped
with a new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) has been developed by the
Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center to permit the observation
and collection of solar data products. It also has The Space
Environment Monitoring (SEM) subsystem has been enhanced by the
addition of the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) sensor, Energetic Proton,
Electron, and Alpha particle Detector (EPEAD), the Magnetospheric
Electron Detector (MAGED), the Magnetospheric Proton Detector (MAGPD)
and dual magnetometers on a 27.9 foot (8.5 meter) long boom. The EPS
sensors have been expanded on GOES-N,O,P to provide coverage over an
extended energy range and with improved directional accuracy. See:


http://www.ccrc.sr.unh.edu/~stm/AS/Weather_Toolbox/NE_Weather_Primer.h
tml#Sun

http://sec.noaa.gov/ws/

These are ELECTRICAL features.  The electron belt is on top of the
proton belt, the so called van Allen belts, then there is the upper
ionosphere which tends negative and the lower ionosphere that tends
positive, and this coupling impact, and space particles attracted to
opposing sings and a dance of high energy particles that come with O2
splitting and ozone level increases, namely toward the tropics, while
the closing isobars bring particles to the poles . . . all mean that
flaring has a HUGE electrical meaning.

If you are not studying CO2 as a CONDUCTIVITY forcing on clouds,
Katie bar the door!  You just let the horse out of the barn!  You
miss the hottest stuff in climate.  I promise to make some of it real
time and real right here on real climate.

The proof keeps coming in.  Draft paper written by Ed Mecurio about
the solar polarity effect upon galactic cosmic rays and how this may
effect different teleconnections. Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal
Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index ... even Los Angeles rainfall
patterns:

http://www.hartnell.cc.ca.us/faculty/mercurio/GCR.pdf

Rasmus Benestad wrote:

"We do not need to invoke these aspects of electric fields and so on
to explain cyclones. They can readily be simulated in computer models
describing the dynamics and thermodynamics. Cyclones are also
routinely simulated in weather models that do not take the electric
field into account."

The NHC has over FORTY models they use to project tropical storm
dynamics and it is difficult to respond to whether or not these
models serendipitously are taking into account the capacitive
couplings that impact cloud microphysics that I am describing for you
here.   Keep in mind that the cloud disk around a tropical storm has
a high dielectric constant compared to that in the eye or on the disk
edges, and that's where the microphysics are impacted and provide a
forcing on cloud dynamics.  So some of the baratropical behaviors are
going to feedback thermodynamic order in parallel with electrical
orders confounding this kind of discussion.

EVENT HORIZONS.

However, there are a few ways we can get around this problem and
frame it in such a way that we can discuss the capacitive coupling
forcing on cloud microphysics per the China paper
[ http://www.ichmt.org/abstracts/Vim-01/abstracts/04-01.pdf ]
independently.  And in order to get to those ways, let me digress a
little and discuss event horizons.  Event horizons will help us
appreciate whether the models really do readily simulate the dynamics
and thermodynamics of a tropical storm.  Theoretical models of
baratropical behaviors depend on a number of variables, and I am not
going to get into the minutia here.  I will merely state some state
of the science assertions, and assume you are familiar with them.

1. The DIRECTIONAL models based on baratropic behaviors are limited
to about 5 days.  That's why the NHC puts out 5 day models of where a
storm is going to go.  The limitation is due to the problem of
turbulence, and turbulence gets to viscosity.  Over time, the
baratropical models reach an event horizon that cannot be seen.  The
directional models rely on global circulation models, where, say, the
Bermuda High is or where the jet stream is and where it is tending.
Models have become more complex as they attempt to look at SSTs,
land, and even season and tropical storm climatology of previous
tropical storms, to determine where a given storm will go.
Climatology, of course, will over lap the eleectrical forcing, and
SSTs have conductivity meaning—as the warmer the oceans are the more
conductive they are, about a percent more conductive per degF in
SSTs.  The land is about a 1,000-5,000 times more resistive over the
oceans, and so land falling models, which describe the land falling
dynamics in terms of friction or loss of heat from the oceans are
also missing what the difference is between a coupling between
ionosphere and ocean and ionosphere and land.  This critical omission
is extremely important in describing the difference between a monsoon
and a landfalling tropical storm.

2. The INTENSITY models are based on baratropical behaviors face an
even worse outcome.  The event horizon is very very brief based on
present models.  Let me be very specific about it, too.  The models
will capture the sustained winds within the same 5 day parameters and
project them in the general swath of the tropical storm but these
models are extremely poor at picking up storm mesovortices – how
these vortices will behave and what intensity they will have.  The
inner dynamics face even more complex viscosity and turbulance
modelling.  However, mesovortices behaviors are well described in
terms of capacitive couplings, and I will be doing that.  I also
theorize that the roiling and depressurization of the surface low
causes very specific carbonation movements, where carbonation bubbles
to the surface and equilibrates back to ion form, and  that
specifically impacts the conductivity of the surface relative to the
capacitive couplings described here. The cloud microphysics of a
storm center, then is impacted in a very specific and defined way,
and the models pick up on that in terms of sustained winds.  But
again because the baratropical approach fails to appreciate the
capacitive couplings and the forcing on cloud dynamics, the models
fail at predicting mesovortices behaviors, eyewall replacement
cycling, diurnal changes, and so forth.
DAY AND NIGHT

3. Event horizons are not all the same.  Here is an example that is
easy.  Say you want to predict when daylight will come.  It is easy
to model as the earth rotates at a specific rate and repeats its
cycle every 24 hours.  There is some complexity in the movement and
tilt and precession of the earth, but these complexities have largely
been solved by classical orbital physics formulations.  Since we can
easily explain when day turns to night and night to day, it becomes
helpful to see if that predictable feature is helpful in appreciating
what that factor does to tropical storm behaviors.  This factor is
called diurnal cycling for those who study tropical storm behaviors.
And while relationships have been described between the way a
tropical storm behaves during the day as opposed to night, again this
factor is poorly described using the traditional baratropical
approach. U/W Professor Jim Kossin is a leading scholar in the area,
but, again, he fails to model storm behaviors in direct consideration
of the electrical forcings which occur on cloud microphysics. See
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/ I turns out that there are a number
of diurnal patterns that that can be OBSERVED real time that play
directly into mesovortices and intensity behaviors if the complexity
of the electrical forcing is considered.   What Kossin's research by
barotropical approach indicates is a diurnal relationship exists, but
that appreciation varies by storm.   It turns out that the diurnal
relationship to thunderstorm activity is clear.  That's because with
the day the air heats up and as the sun sets the air cools and the
water in the air condenses and causes relative rising and falling air—
and convection that powers thunderstorms.   You can go to
http://www.lightningstorm.com and see this is true on almost any
given during the summer.  The afternoon almost always has the peak
strike levels.  However, with respect to a tropical storm, which has
relatively few strikes associated with it, what electrical fields and
currents it will experience varies not just with respect to the time
of day but the DISTANCE from the areas where thunderstorms take place
will change the time of day that the diurnal variance will occur.
For instance, if a tropical storm is near Africa, and as central
Africa is the most struck place on earth, the peak charge separations
in the ionosphere relative to the warm and therefore conductive
intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the diurnal change will be
very strongly related to the thunderstorm activity over Africa.  But
as a tropical storm moves along the ITCZ , it comes to a place where
due to the fact that the strength of a static electrical field is
related inversely to the distance, that the capacitive couplings are
influenced by strikes in North and South America as well as the
strikes in Africa.  As that occurs, there becomes a steady power
source for the capacitive fields above a tropical storm and the day
to night differences are not as clear, but still exist.

SEASON

4.  The events horizons of the tropical storm season is well
appreciated.  That's the bell shaped curve that allows meteorologists
to talk about June 1 through November 31 `hurricane season' with some
confidence.  There is the so called Cape Verde season. Yet there are
times when June comes around and there are no storms and times, like
this season when the `season' is active—including the fact that Cape
Verde storms occurred this year much earlier than they have ever
occurred.  There is room for improvement and what the `season'
really `is' improves dramatically when looking at the electrical
features here described.  The main features of a capacitive coupling
are the conductive ionosphere and the conductive oceans.  Now,
because the oceans become more conductive on the surface, to the tune
of a percent change in conductivity for each degree of SST increase,
there is a clear relationship between season when the oceans are warm
due to the tilt of the earth.  Further, the ionosphere is relatively
created by direct high frequency energy from the sun splitting oxygen
to form ozone, which makes the ionosphere relatively conductive, and
the angle of the sun and therefore the intensity of the high
frequency light to the hurricane zones varies by season.    Also, the
summer thunderstorm levels feedback capacitive couplings to larger
global features, such as the Pacific high, which then causes cold
fronts to drop down to the continental United States (CONUS) and
create more strikes.  Eventually, the rainy `season' on the west
coast ends and features such as the `Bermuda' high evolve.  Without
looking at cloud microphysics and electrical forcings, you will never
know what the Pacific high or the Bermuda high are!

OTHER EVENT HORIZONS FROM THE BARATROPICAL

5.  There is the sun and activity that rotates around the disk of the
sun, there is the solar magnetic flux, the solar cycle.  There is
space weather—cosmic ray flux.  There is gravity cycles, from the
moon and the planets, and even possibly from a twin star to the sun
called Nemesis.     These cycles, these events, can all be described
in electrical means.  Indeed, for instance, the gravity waves from
the moon can be described in longer terms such ask the Keeling Whorf
did, or on shorter per orbital cycling which Steve MacDonald does,
which relies, again, on classical orbital physics to predict when the
ocean will experience pressures that will cause the oceans to cause
carbonation to come first out of solution and then move to the ocean
surface and impact capacitive couplings there.   It should be noted
that ALL of these kinds of forcings will exist beyond the event
horizon as seen only be capacitive couplings.

6.  There is the movement not of global pressures but the movement in
general of water content in the air.  This movement in particular in
the tropics has significant DIELECTRICAL meaning and hence is another
descriptive horizon BEYOND the event horizon of barotropical.  The
best example of this is the so-called Madden Julian Oscillation,
which merely is a description of cloud behaviors in the Indian
Oceans.  Because the Indian Ocean tropics is warm and conductive, and
connects Africa and the Pacific Ocean, just where water is varies the
global electrical circuit.  Similar global electrical circuit event
horizons are ENSO, NAO, SOI index (roiling/depressurization on CO2 in
solution in the ocean differences between Tahiti and Darwin).  For
instance, tropical storms tend to form with greater probability with
a rising SOI to positive, which is a measure which shows increases
the conductivities in the eastern tropical Pacific,   and hence
impacts the strength of the ITCZ.  Likewise, ENSO correlates with a
negative SOI, which is why during El Nino there tends to be fewer
tropical storms.

7. There is the event horizons described by conductivity changes
brought about by marcrobiosphere.  For instance, this year the
tropical storm activity relative to the bloom in the northeast Gulf
of Mexico (GOM) was pretty clear with the early tropical storms there
this spring.  Over larger timescales, for instance, the biosphere of
hydrate fields comes to play off the coasts of the Carolinas and in
the GOM, as outgassing of methane is quickly metabolized by life into
carbonation levels in the regional oceans, and then impacts
conductivities.  Hydrology changes, sedimentation rates all impact
the stability of hydrate fields, and proves powerful regional rain
feedbacks based directly on the conductivities forced by the hydrate
field ecosystems.  This is where, for instance, in the thread on
extreme weather events there was a discussion of hydro electrical
plants and the Caracus 1999 flooding that killed 30,000, and the
mention of the fact that the dams where constructed not recently but
over a longer period—which failed to appreciate that the
sedimentation over time would impact hydrate stability, and that many
new dams have been constructed in West Africa, and those dams impact
the biological loads in the ITCZ, which is electrically connected to
South America.  The dams constructed near the Atlantic ITCZ were so
significant a forcing relative to the biosphere that Dr. William Gray
had for years accurately used rainfall patterns in Africa to
determine an event horizon beyond the baratropical, only to disregard
that factor over the past several years following the dam
constructions,

--- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
<narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:


> The proof keeps coming in.  Draft paper written by Ed Mecurio about
> the solar polarity effect upon galactic cosmic rays and how this may
> effect different teleconnections. Arctic Oscillation, Pacific
Decadal
> Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index ... even Los Angeles
rainfall
> patterns:
>
> http://www.hartnell.cc.ca.us/faculty/mercurio/GCR.pdf

Mike,


I see you have been speaking about my solar wind theory regarding 500
km/sec... ...Thanks...Harvey and Irene both followed this
rule...diminishing rule also... since we last spoke...I also see you
still must be getting into the other place still ... I wondered about
some other names...  I posted Ed Mecurio's draft paper URL there last
night. I meant to share this with you a while back but things got to
hectic. It's quite interesting.

The sun has been quieter and so are the tropics now.... Been telling
them at Storm2K for almost a week now that this was going to occur but
they did not want to listen. I also said that the new NOAA/Gray
outlook numbers are way overblown...Non favorable SOI & MJO phases.

  BTW remember my discussion last March in TWC ..1/20/05 + 199 days =
8/7/2005....Notice that the 30 day SOI just changed to a negative
trend again. First negative 30 day avg. since June 30th.

Do not misinterpet me. It's not like some 199 day delayed effect
occurrs. This is related to the recent space weather caused by solar
magnetic field changes. If you recall I mentioned in early June that
the sun would become much more active between June 30th-August 9th.

This is cyclical and this particular phase is most likely related to
the solar north pole. I believe it has started to get stronger. It had
been in a weakening state for quite some time now and the WSO filtered
averages show this. Their data may not show it strengthening for a
while but I know it will show up. I have seen it take weeks to months
to show up.

I have several other URL's that may interst you. I will get back to
you soon with them.


Jim

You will really enjoy discussing your interests with David here.

I see that Steve MacDonald (Gigabite) has been posting with you.
Steve used to belong here but his old email address is bouncing.
Perhaps you can PM him over at 2YK to come join so that we can
communicate.  I would appreciate that.

As you know I was suspended, and I didn't flame or do ANYTHING except
write my theory with respect to large scale electrical features and
cloud microphyics. The Windy and Kevin posters there are having a
great deal of difficulty, because the baratropical behaviors that
they are comfortable with have event horizons of a few days whereas
what we are talking about have horizons of longer timescales.

I used to post EVERYDAY for five years with a operational
meteorologist over at NYTimes when they had a thread on global
warming.  That discussion evolved, and my appreciation for CO2 as an
electrical, conductivity forcing changed with time.  It reached a
point where at the end of October I predicted a tropical storm in the
E Carribean at the end of the season, and it occurred.  He saw it
coming about 5 days out.  And after that I teased him that the score
was 45 to 5, and he took it for about 2 weeks and then didn't post
again.  Five years of arguing, debating, EVERYDAY and then after that-
-nothing. His ego had been crushed.  The same thing you are dealing
with in Windy and Kevin, because they are jeolous of the fact that
you are talking about a forcing beyond the event horizon of the
baratropical approach they are familiar with.

Those posters wouldn't know the 'science' of large scale EMFs if it
bit them in the ass, so to them none of your posts have any causal
mechanism to make your predictions anything less than a crystal
ball.  But there is indeed a causal mechanism, and it starts with
appreciating that in DC fields the ions in super cooled cloud
droplets migrate and that impacts cloud formation microphysics, cloud
dynamics, their fluid dynamics.  They will NEVER understand what you
are posting about.

BTW, I really enjoy David's posts here particularly in the winter
when elevated solar winds (not under 500 like you see for
cyclogenesis) mean a greater chance of a storm for us here in
Redding, particularly with a rising SOI, although the solar wind
change can cause the SOI to rise . . .  it's going to be really
interesting here if we get you and Steve and David to start comparing
notes.

At Real Climate Rasmus Benestad wrote in respones to my previous
reply to him:

"We do not need to invoke these aspects of electric fields and so on
to explain cyclones. They can readily be simulated in computer models
describing the dynamics and thermodynamics. Cyclones are also
routinely simulated in weather models that do not take the electric
field into account."

The NHC has over FORTY models they use to project tropical storm
dynamics and it is difficult to respond to whether or not these
models seriondipudoudly are taking into account the capacitive
couplings that impact cloud microphysics that I am describing for you
here.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004H/CHARLEY/track_s
.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004H/CHARLEY/track.d
at

11A  18.00  -79.20 08/12/06Z   75   989 HURRICANE-1
  12  19.70  -81.20 08/12/15Z   80   983 HURRICANE-1
12A  19.20  -80.50 08/12/12Z   75   986 HURRICANE-1
  13  19.70  -81.20 08/12/15Z   80   983 HURRICANE-1
13A  20.40  -81.50 08/12/18Z   85   980 HURRICANE-2
  14  21.20  -81.90 08/12/21Z   90   980 HURRICANE-2
14A  21.70  -82.30 08/13/00Z   90   976 HURRICANE-2
  15  22.20  -82.40 08/13/03Z   90   975 HURRICANE-2
15A  23.00  -82.60 08/13/06Z   90   973 HURRICANE-2
  16  23.90  -82.90 08/13/09Z   95   970 HURRICANE-2
16A  24.30  -82.90 08/13/11Z   95   969 HURRICANE-2
16B  24.70  -82.90 08/13/13Z   95   970 HURRICANE-2
  17  25.20  -82.80 08/13/15Z   95   965 HURRICANE-2
17A  25.70  -82.50 08/13/17Z  110   964 HURRICANE-3
  18  26.00  -82.40 08/13/18Z  125   954 HURRICANE-4
  19  26.90  -82.20 08/13/21Z  120   941 HURRICANE-4
19A  27.70  -81.80 08/13/23Z  100   950 HURRICANE-3
19B  28.40  -81.40 08/14/01Z   80   965 HURRICANE-1
  20  29.10  -81.10 08/14/03Z   75   975 HURRICANE-1
20A  30.10  -80.80 08/14/06Z   75   993 HURRICANE-1
  21  31.20  -80.50 08/14/09Z   75   994 HURRICANE-1
21A  32.30  -79.70 08/14/12Z   75   993 HURRICANE-1
  22  33.20  -79.00 08/14/15Z   65   990 HURRICANE-1

I have the 12 pm http://www.lightningstorm.com picture from 8/14/04
at midnight PDT at our yahoo group
http://www.groups.yahoo.com/group/methanehydrateclub under the
pictures directory which corresponds to the blow up and the right
turn.  It was a 62,000 strike event.  I will email it to anyone on
request.  Bonnie was over Georgia at the time and provided an
intensification of the trough and the strikes along it, so the huge
number of strikes in the CONUS were to the NW  of the storm.  It
turned and intensified in the direction of those strikes.  I have
been observing this phenomenon real time for two years now.


Rasmus Benestad continues to write:

"There is no secret that some clouds - like thunder clouds - involve
lightning and electrical phenomena. This is most likely a result of
the cloud formation rather than electro-dynamical processes causing
the clouds themselves (mind you, there are also clouds that produce
that rain but do not produce lightning...). The dynamics and
thermodynamics are fairly well-understood: convection (updraughts)
bring moist air up and the water vapour condenses (usually on cloud
condensation nuclei, CCN) as the air gets supersaturated - it cools
as it ascends and expands (lower pressure). The electro-dynamical
aspects are likely to be 'bi-products' of the process - interesting,
but there are not much empirical evidence for electro-dynamical
processes playing any role in the formation of clouds."

Here is where I think Rasmus Benestad is suggesting a
misunderstanding.  I agree that thunderstorms do not have much
microphysics changes due to local strike activity.  Let me see if I
can describe his error.  First he must understand what a capacitor
is. A capacitor is two conductive plates that essentially are not
passing a direct current but are passing a field, that causes an
stability that holds opposing charges.  Okay?  Where convection
occurs and strikes run to the earth (most strikes pass negative
voltages), there is a corresponding direct current from the
ionosphere to the clouds that have lost their charge and have become
relatively positively charged.  This is how the lower ionosphere
becomes positively charged?  Following so far?

But since land isn't all that conductive, there is little capacitive
coupling that occurs from the ionosphere to land where the
thunderstorms are occurring.  What THEN happens is the relatively
positive charge DIRECTLY flows in the conductive ionosphere.  It can
have a wave like pulse to it, but when you have 60,000 strikes in a
short period of time as Charley blew up and right turned, what a
lightning strike is to the global electrical circuit is the
ionosphere getting a very positive charge to it relative to the
ground.

Rasmus Benestad has admitted this much:

"Lightning probably play an important role for the ambient (fair
weather) electric field that exist between the upper atmosphere and
ground."

So that positive charge then runs to the oceans where it COUPLES with
the oceans.  Now this is where you must follow slowly:  The
transiants OBSERVED above Hurricane Felix by NASA was on the order of
ke Volts or order of magnetude 10 to 9th power or 1000 Kvolts/meter.

By my calculations from above the electric field used in the China
experiment was 250 kV/m.  In other words, the China paper used an ion
solution that caused VISABLE microphysics change and that is a full
order of magnetude LESS than observed fields above a tropical
hurricane.  On top of that, we are not talking about pure water when
we are talking about a tropical storm.  It is well observed that when
a tropical storm comes ashore the smell of ocean is overwhelming--
indeed the high speed winds whip up salt water spray--hurricanes are
comprised of a fair degree of salinity in the convecting clouds.
This makes the clouds even more suspeptible to the DC couplings
between ionosphere and ocean.

Rasmus Benestad continues to write:

"It is believed that a so-called charge-separation must take place
for lightening to occur in order to enhance the electrical field in
the cloud. The charge separation is not very well understood, but one
explanation is that it must involve freezing processes and
splintering/fracturing as the outer shell of drops freeze before
their core. When the drops' core freeze, the shell splinters due to
expansion of the freezing core. There have been some suggestions that
electric fields may enhance the formation of drops (electro-freezing
hypotheses; Tinsley and others), but as far as I know, there are no
conclusive empirical evidence for this actually occurring in the real
atmosphere, and besides, this process may be unimportant as the drop
formation could also happen in the absence of an electric field. TCs
form in a similar fashion to clouds, albeit in a more extreme fashion
due to a instabilities. Again, I do not believe that electro-
dynamical processes play an important role in their formation. "

The key thing to appreciate with the tropical storm DC couplings
between ionosphere and ocean, which again, have been show to cause
OBSERVABLE microphysics differences in the super cool droplets (which
leads to phase change differences and in accumulation viscosity,
baratropical orders) is that water and for that matter cold water has
a dielectric constant difference between air.  Therefore, the DC
couplings experienced at the eye of a hurricane are MUCH different
than experienced over the cloud disk:


C = å0 * år * A / d


where

C is the capacitance in farads
å0 is the permittivity of free space, measured in farad per metre
år is the dielectric constant or relative permittivity of the
insulator used
A is the area of each plane electrode, measured in square meters
d is the separation between the electrodes, measured in meters

So note that Capacitance varies directly with whether water or really
cold water is inbetween the virtual plate of the ionosphere and the
conductive surface of the ocean, as water has a dielectric constant
of about 80 compared to air of about 1.  Furthermore, cold water runs
all the way up to 88 for the dielectric constant.  Basically,
capacitance is a description of how well a field will move from plate
to plate--and that is to say that the intense DC field that would
change microphysics properties would hence be either in the eye of
the tropical storm or along its edges where water vapors then diffuse
to the more convecting cloud masses, furthering organizations.

Because the strike data that appears at http://www.lightningstorm.com
is relatively new technology, along with satellite observations of IR
characteristics, from which you can directly infer cloud temperature
and hence dielectric constant meaning, real time observations of this
theory have been recent.  But they verify.

Rasmus E. Benestad wrote:


"I appreciate the explanation about capacitance, after all it is a
while I completed my first degree in physics and electronics..."

I see from Mr. Benestad's background page he is WELL qualified to
discuss electrical fields and cloud microphysics:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=50

I brought up the subject of capacitance not to teach him about
capacitance, as he is the greater expert on this ken, but rather to
describe to him what aspect of the cloud dynamics were forced by the
displacement currents.  I learned electronics in the US Army reserves
years ago and did get into my MOS (job) with an ASPHAB of 145, so I
am no idiot with respect to basic electronics and electrical field
theory.  My profession is legal medical, and it has well qualified me
to have this discussion with Rasmus Benestad--I was built to have
this discussion with him because there is a biological and chemistry
aspect he is not yet concerned with.  I also am a few units short of
a math degree and had college chemistry and a couple years of college
physics and circuits and all of that--but my mother was sick just as
I was about to graduate, and so it took me longer to finish school
and I went into another direction as a major and then for graduate
school--law.  But enough about me.

Rasmus E. Benestad wrote:

"Actually, I think the issue of electrico-dynamics veers off the
subject of the post, although I get Mike Doran's point that he
doesn't believe so."

It's not a question of faith.  As a lawyer, I am comfortable making a
weak argument--especially if well paid.  But I am also a man who
appreciates for free a substantive, scientific discussion, and the
proper question is whether or not CO2 from human activity is causing
more tropical storms. The evidence is overwhelming, despite what
William Gray and others may say, that tropical storm activity is
enhanced.  The mechanism of the main debate is whether CO2 as a green
house gas causes increases in heat content in the oceans, and whether
that has a secondary impact of increasing storm intensity.  With this
theory I disagree, but I disagree from the standpoint of MECHANISM,
and I have both theoretical and empirical proof to support my
position.  And papers to support this position, including papers in
the mainstream  journals.  I also know from my training what is a
poor argument, such as an appeal to authority logical fallacy, or
what is an argument based on logic and science.  At the same time, an
expert can explain a phenomenon in accepted ways--and let me
RESPECTFULLY SUGGEST that where the subtle connection between human
activity and fossil fuels and electrical forcing is in the OCEAN, not
in the cloud microphysics, and that the couplings that power, or do
the main 'work' on the cloud droplets do so without flash or bright
lights. The ocean chemistry is not mentioned, and that is where the
complexity of human activity lies.

Rasmus E. Benestad wrote:

"Yes, I also did my masters in cloud micro-physics some years agao
[sic], and if my memory serves me right, electrical phenomena play a
role in cloud mircophysics. But not in the way Mike Doran outlines,
unless the view has changed completely. I think if it had, we would
read about it in Nature and Science."

I again respectfully and strongly disagree with this assertion, both
in terms of what is asserted and what the peer review state of the
science really is. Some of the papers are not main stream but some
ARE. Perhaps the leading paper on the subject by Professor Tinsley
respects cloud nucleation processes--but such electrical features are
not going to limited to tropical storm genesis:

http://www.utdallas.edu/dept/physics/Faculty/tinsley/Tin_rev.pdf

And ALL of the papers are recent long after most of us have
graduated. The technology to read strike pattern and cloud IR outputs-
-such as to 'see' both electrical input and cloud microphysics
behavior are now there to verify what I am writing about.   Example--
the five mesovortices of Hurricane Andrew--what makes for such a
baratropical order?  I submit you cannot explain Andrew without
describing the static fields associated with the 5 mesovortices.

One big paper, again, that I have referred but no one wants to
discuss indeed does come from a country which doesn't carry the same
respect that Nature in America does, but there are often papers that
take years to see what the implications are.  The scientists doing
the research are life scientists trying to deal with keeping living
tissues alive in freezing conditions, and so what the impact of a DC
field is on an ice particle may be critical in keeping say lettuce
very cold but not freezer burned.  Again, the China paper:


http://www.ichmt.org/abstracts/Vim-01/abstracts/04-01.pdf

"The effects of electric field on ice crystal growth had been
numerically discussed by Scishcheve and Kusalike6-7. They announced
that the strength of an electric field able to change the ice lattice
from normal ice(Ih) to cubic ice (Ic) should be at least 10 to the
5th kV/m. However, the strength of the electric field used in our
experiments was only 1/400 of the 10 to the 5th kV/m. Thus, the
morphological change of the ice in this study was not caused by the
ice lattice change. Without the electric field, the crystal growth
process could be considered as a process whereby the water molecules
are added one by one to the crystal lattice. This 'adding' process
has normally the same probability in all directions, and leads to the
formation of the symmetric ice crystal [figure omitted]. However,
when a high voltage field is applied, the electric field may cause
different molecules in the DMSO solution to exhibit different
behaviors. The polar water molecules/clusters may be torqued and
rearranged under the action of the electric field and forced to
joining the lattice in a special orientation and position. Hence,
different growth rates occur in different directions and the ice
crystal becomes asymmetric. Under the action of an electric field,
the water molecules may rearrange and line up end to end in the
direction of the electric field. In viewing the crystal structure,
this well-ordered water molecules/clusters seems like crystal or
quasi-crystallines. In this case the water molecules/clusters possess
an ideal situation for rapid crystal growth. That may be the reason
why the main branches, which are parallel to the direction of the
electric field, grow faster than the other branches."

The DC fields in the eye of a tropical storm that have been OBSERVED
have been greater than the fields in this paper that caused visible
microphysics differences.  These fields are not from the flash and
glow of thunderstorms, nor even near these events, but rather at
distances where these energies are dissipated in coupled static
fields.

But to the connection and the mainstream, yes, Nature paper:

http://www.bbsr.edu/Labs/co2lab/abstract/batesetal1998c.html

Bates et al have found that a hurricane causes CO2 to come out of
solution in the oceans as a hurricane passed.  It stands to logic and
science and reason that as CO2 in the air increases, so does it in
the oceans, and then this impacts the way carbonation leaves the
oceans when a surface low passes.  This, I assert, is the cause of
the jump in intensity of tropical storms.  The mechanism is an
increase in conductivity at the surface where the depressurization
and roiling takes place.

Again, the mechanism is that the CO2 runs from a dissolved form in
the oceans in the top several feet, and bubbles to the surface, where
it then runs back chemical equillibriums--in the context of the
coupled fields which impact pH and these equillibriums, to increase
the ion count relative to the salt ions already in the oceans. Carbon
dioxide moves to carbonate, carbonic acid and bicarbonate and back to
carbon dioxide and then interacts with the salts in the oceans.  This
is the reason that no matter how warm the tropical oceans are, a
tropical storm MOVES.  It essentially runs out of gas per the Nature
Bates et al paper to cause the SURFACE conductivities required to
couple electrical fields with the ionosphere and impact and organize
cloud microphysics.

"I'm open for new ideas and do not write off the idea of electrical
phenomena playing a role in climate - hence a discussion on the
subject together with various curiosities such as Aurora, Elves,
airglow, Sprites,the Van Allen belts, and Lightening in my
book "Solar Activity and Earth's Climate" (2002; Praxis/Springer)."

But this discussion does not include the chemistry of the oceans
relative to the fields created by these phenomenon, nor the
macrobiosphere's role in creating a living earth in such a context.
And I am a self taught student of tropical storms--where these DC
fields most intensely couple--due to the conductive mediums of ocean
and ionosphere and the ability of the cloud patterns to hold
charges.  Again--what does Dr. William Gray's QBO wind have to do
with a 150 mph sustained wind?  Mmm?  And it DOES!  Why?  Clue—it's
an ion wind that relates to the state of the global electrical
circuit.

"But at this stage, there are still speculations so I think that a
simplified view involving capacitance, the sea and the ionosphere can
be discussed further on the methanehydrateclub site and not under
this post. Thanks for your input Mike!"

I started out writing a book six years ago on climate change, and
this is where I have come. To think that at one time I was a GHG
warmer. You know, truth has a way.  A great American writer named
Mark Twain once said that the writing begins when the editing
starts.  I would start from Hurricane Andrew and describe the 5 meso
vortices, which just happen to have a relationship where static
fields could be set relative to water content and dielectric
meaning . . . and how Andrew occurred following Mt Pinatubo, and what
impact SOx would have on the cloud microphysics and the asymmetries
created in those physics, per the China paper, in intense DC fields
between the oceans and the ionosphere . . .

Shy Elf wrote #18 and 19:

"I'm sorry, but this post seems mostly incoherrent to me, and the
link to growing crystals in DMSO solutions hardly seems relevant, but
you do raise some interesting points. The solar wind, since it is
charged, compresses the Earth's magnetic field and also interacts
directly with cosmic rays, and greatly lowers the amount which reach
the Earth. When it is low, there will be more cosmic rays stopping in
the statosphere, where they form the nuclei of water droplets. This
results in more heat-trapping stratospheric clouds, and more
hurricanes. This effect has probably become much smaller in modern
times, since our stratosphere is now so dirty with jet exhaust."

"Deep North Atlantic slighly INCREASES global SSTs by decreasing the
depth of the termocline in the upwelling regions, hence decreasing
the ocean's heat content, resulting an a net increase in emission of
energy by the ocean."

The point is not growing crystals in the specific DMSO solution but
rather growing crystals in a DC field.  A DC field again, is a field
where there are relative positive charges on one side and negative
charges on the other and the super cooled droplet is inbetween.  DMSO
is a polar ion, which means in solution there will be a migration and
or movement of the chemical inside the droplet relative to the DC
field.  Other ion solutions will exact simalar movements.  Indeed
rainwater has a number of ions in solution and has a pH of about 5.6--
and certainly the spray of a tropical storm will contain even greater
ion counts from the salts that get dissolved in the spray.  As these
droplets become super cooled, their morphology is impacted impacted.
This is the CLEAR and UNREFUTED result in the China paper.  I suspect
that the experimenters used DMSO merely because of its biological
properties, such as it is permiable to cell walls, and hence if used
as a perservative for tissues that are super cooled, the whole tissue
would be protected by both the chemical and electrical properties of
it.  There is nothing to prevent the same morphology changes for
other ion solutions--and that's my point.  DNA, for instance, is an
ACID (D N ACID). Same with RNA (R N ACID).  This gets to the early
gaia cloud macrobiosphere and sorting of nucleotide complex, which
garnered design and complexity that I have been writing about.  The
evidence of this is overwhelming.

There was a paper written recently and published in Nature about the
cloud cover during the 9/11 grounding of jets across the CONUS.  I
have actually emailed with the author, but he wasn't interested in
what I am doing.  Anyway, the paper showed that the contrails
increase cloud cover.  But there is a big difference between a
patternless, diffused input into climate and an ORGANIZATION of
clouds per large scale electrical features.  The problem with space
weather is the earth's magnetic field takes particles and moves them
to the closing isobars of the earth's magnetic poles, whereas high
energy light would have an impact on ozone more toward the tropics.
High intensity solar events thus have a more complex meaning than
just heating up the atmosphere--there are specific organizations
related to space weather.

The nuclei theory suffers equally from the same problem--the nuclei
are not organized and a tropical storm is an organization of
electrical fields and baratropical patterns.  Cosmic ray inputs are
again how the balance of capacitive couplings occur an dpattern cloud
microphysics.

As far as thermohaline movements, the clouds are far more important
and the clouds are impacted by upwelling in two ways. First, the
colder the SSTs the more resistive the waters--about a percent
increase in resistance per drop in SSTs.  That's why hurricane
frequencies decrease as SSTs drop.  But counterintuitively, the
upwelling brings nutrients to the surface for microbial activity and
that impacts, increases conductivities.  That's why the ENSO models
based only on ocean temperatures are poor performing.

BTW, for some reason my first post schematic drawings were partially
deleted:



  IONOSPHERE

..........-..............-
...........\............/
............\........../
.............v .......v
..............^......^
...............\..../
................\../
................+.+
.- -----><----- + - + -----><----- -
..................+
..................|
..................|
..................v
..................^
..................|
..................|
..................-

TROPICAL OCEAN SURFACE

..........+..............+
...........\............/
............\........../
.............v .......v
..............^......^
...............\..../
................\../
................-.-
+ -----><----- - + - -----><----- +
.................-
.................|
.................|
.................v
.................^
.................|
.................|
.................+


Ionosphere Ocean Capacitive Coupling above Eye:

............................+..-..+
............................|..|..|
............................|..|..|
............................v..v..v
............................^..^..^
............................|..|..|
............................|..|..|
............................-..+..-

Later this tropical storm season I will point out specifically from
an IR shots relative to high strike levels where the displacement
currents are impacting the cloud microphysics.  It is quite clear in
some of the shots, particularly if there are multiple mesovortices
visable in IR and you can see IR details INSIDE the eye.

--- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
<narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
> Shy Elf wrote #18 and 19:
>
> "I'm sorry, but this post seems mostly incoherrent to me, and the
> link to growing crystals in DMSO solutions hardly seems relevant, but
> you do raise some interesting points. The solar wind, since it is
> charged, compresses the Earth's magnetic field and also interacts
> directly with cosmic rays, and greatly lowers the amount which reach
> the Earth. When it is low, there will be more cosmic rays stopping in
> the statosphere, where they form the nuclei of water droplets. This
> results in more heat-trapping stratospheric clouds, and more
> hurricanes. This effect has probably become much smaller in modern
> times, since our stratosphere is now so dirty with jet exhaust."
>

He's right about the solar wind-cosmic ray-cloud connection, but from
what I've read, he may have the thermal concequences backwards.  The
increased formation of mid and low level clouds makes for a better
mirror, and the net effect is one of cooling...not warming.  The
timing of the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age is too close to
be a coincidence, but what was the mechanism?  Was it lower overall
solar energy output, more clouds, or both?

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/science/AP-Fire-and-Ice.html


Report: Icier Clouds Make More Lightning
              E-Mail This
Printer-Friendly
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: August 11, 2005
Filed at 7:27 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Poet Robert Frost once pondered whether the world
would end in fire or in ice. Weather researchers say where you find
ice you find fire -- at least in the form of lightning.

Whether the storm was over land, ocean or coastal areas, clouds with
more ice produced more lightning, researchers studying satellite
radar images report in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

''The new thing is that when you look at different areas of the
planet ... the hypothesis about the importance of ice holds up,''
Walter A. Petersen of the University of Alabama at Huntsville said
Thursday.

He said weather scientists have known there was a relationship
between ice and lightning, but were learning new details by studying
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration satellite images
which can look at both the number of lightning strikes and the volume
of ice in a cloud at the same time.

Crucial is what is called precipitation-sized ice, particles of a
millimeter or so which sometimes can be seen falling as small
hail. ''Where you have more of that, you tend to have more
lightning,'' Petersen said.

These particles crash into smaller ice particles in the swirling
winds inside storm clouds, resulting in a separation of electrical
charge.

The charge separated between smaller and larger particles, with the
smaller carrying a positive charge to the top of the thundercloud and
the larger ones with the negative charge sinking to the bottom, he
explained in a telephone interview.

''You effectively make a big battery with positive and negative
ends,'' he said, with the charge building up until it is discharged
as lightning.

The relationship between ice volume and lightning held true over such
varied locations as the Himalaya Mountains, Central Africa,
Madagascar, northern Australia and Florida, the researchers reported.

They found small areas of subtropical South America where lightning
flash density seemed slightly less than would have been expected for
the measured ice amount. Since they could find no physical reason for
this the researchers said it may be a sampling error. They are doing
more research on those areas.

The work was funded by the NASA's Earth Observing System and Earth
Science Enterprise programs.

^------

On the Net:

Geophysical Research Letters: www.agu.org/journals/gl/

The visible surface of the sun is about to be blank and devoid of
sunspots again.  After a rousing start as it crossed the eastern limb,
sunspot region 792 has rotated out of view, and regions 794 and 795
are about to do the same.  Barring any new sunspots coming into view,
we could see the sunspot number go to zero again.  Breaking the
monotony is a small coronal hole that is now rotating into view.  We
could see some high speed solar wind gusts from it along about thhe 16th.

The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

NOAA sunspot number : 35
SFI : 76
A index : 6
K index : 2

Solar wind speed : 360.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.3 nPa

IMF : 4.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North

GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A4

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

Recent significant solar flare activity :
None

--- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
wrote:
> The visible surface of the sun is about to be blank and devoid of
> sunspots again.  After a rousing start as it crossed the eastern
limb,
> sunspot region 792 has rotated out of view, and regions 794 and 795
> are about to do the same.  Barring any new sunspots coming into view,
> we could see the sunspot number go to zero again.

Well a quieter-blank sun means we get hot here in the Washington DC
area. Today was pretty warm. The forecast calls for mid 90's the next
few days. I mentioned this to Mike a while back. ENSO related. The
wave has turned negative...when it's positive the opposite seems to
occur.

So we can forecast solar activity by looking at our weather
forecast...Or at least give us more confidence in forecasting a quiet
sun.

Let's see what happens.


Jim

Mike,

I would tend to agree with David. I think he got it wrong. It's the
low level clouds and their albedo that reflect it back out. There by
cooler temps...Been reading your stuff. Trying to do to many things
at once. Also trying to just sit back and think about everything. It
helps some times.


BTW not to sure if you ever saw my posts at Storm2k about these two
papers. They are gems.


Tinsley's

"Influence of solar wind on the Global electric circuit and Infared
effects on cloud microphysics,temperatures, and dynamics in the
troposphere"


http://www.utdallas.edu/dept/physics/Faculty/tinsley/Tin_rev.pdf



Boberg and Lundscedt

"Solar wind electric field modulation of the NAO: A correlation
analysis in the lower atmosphere"


http://sunspot.lund.irf.se/NAO_article2.pdf


Jim

Jim,

We have a rising SOI--and Irene probably headed near you.  No doubt
you will get wave rain features from this storm.  As in you get the
opposite

  9-Aug-2005     1014.11   1014.55    -12.50     -1.45     -5.12
   10-Aug-2005    1014.01   1014.00     -9.70     -2.05     -5.25
   11-Aug-2005    1013.99   1013.10     -4.40     -2.57     -5.29
   12-Aug-2005    1014.91   1013.20      0.50     -3.18     -5.13

Think of it this way.  When the oceans are roiled they lose their
carbination--like a flat beer.  That means tha surface lows can't
deprressurize and roil the ocean and cause carbination to come out of
solution and rise to the top and then increase the potential ion
load --and thereby drop the conductivity for a surface coupling with
the ionosphere.  So if there be an organization brought about due to
a LACK of solar activity, then it will be organized on the E. Pacific
side and the tropical jet will behave accordingly.

This time of year this kind of SOI reading means an increased
probability of formation of a tropical storm.  I predicted a storm to
the Carolinas on March 31 right here and I think I should keep to my
forecast.  However, there are a number of signs that it may run a
little further north.  Either way Carolinas get substantial
rainfall.  Irene is going to be interesting to watch.

--- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
<no_reply@y...> wrote:
> --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David"
<b1blancer1@e...>
> wrote:
> > The visible surface of the sun is about to be blank and devoid of
> > sunspots again.  After a rousing start as it crossed the eastern
> limb,
> > sunspot region 792 has rotated out of view, and regions 794 and
795
> > are about to do the same.  Barring any new sunspots coming into
view,
> > we could see the sunspot number go to zero again.
>
> Well a quieter-blank sun means we get hot here in the Washington DC
> area. Today was pretty warm. The forecast calls for mid 90's the
next
> few days. I mentioned this to Mike a while back. ENSO related. The
> wave has turned negative...when it's positive the opposite seems to
> occur.
>
> So we can forecast solar activity by looking at our weather
> forecast...Or at least give us more confidence in forecasting a
quiet
> sun.
>
> Let's see what happens.
>
>
> Jim

http://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2005ESP/finalprogram/abstract_88986.htm