Meteorological Society of New Zealand
Auckland Branch Meeting
Thursday, October 23rd, 5:30 pm

Testing Atmospheric Models:
The problems of Strong Jet Streams and IntenseTropical Cyclones

Prof. Joel Tenenbaum
State University of New York


Abstract
Geophysical fluid flows underlie atmospheric and oceanic models used in
weather, climate, and wave motion models. Obtaining the equivalent of
"laboratory truth" about the flows for hypothesis testing in this area is a
non-trivial task. We will explore problems with 4-dimensional atmospheric
data assimilation, a generalization of least squares fitting. We will do so
by examining difficulties with the modeling of strong jet streams and
intense tropical cyclones. These sometimes extreme situations provide
critical tests of the analysis and forecast systems. Examples will be drawn
from the Global Aircraft Data Set (GADS) experiment and Revell and Gorman's
recent reanalysis and reforecast of the April 1968 "Wahine" storm.
Difficulties with these geophysical models have immediate real world
effects. Two examples are the current need to multiply forecast winds by a
fudge factor before sending to airlines for use in their fuel-needed
calculations and the previous Wahine tragedy itself.

Where:
Drinks and Nibbles in the Physics Common Room 7th Floor starting at 5:30pm
then
Seminars in SLT1 (Ground Floor) starting at 6:00pm
Physics and Maths Building, The University of Auckland
Corner Princes Street and Wellesley Street
Parking on Princes Street (Parking Meters)

For more details contact:
Kim Dirks
3737-599 Ext: 86301
k.dirks@...