Met Society Auckland Branch are pleased to advise you of
the following public lecture.
(As part of the Intergovernmental  Panel  on Climate Change
Working Group meeting being held in Auckland in February)

'THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE'
Sir John Houghton
Co-Chair, IPCC Working Group One

Date: Monday 14 February 2000
Date: Monday 14 February 2000
Date: Monday 14 February 2000
Date: Monday 14 February 2000
Date: Monday 14 February 2000
Date: Monday 14 February 2000

Time: 7 pm
Time: 7 pm
Time: 7 pm
Time: 7 pm
Time: 7 pm
Time: 7 pm


Location: ARC Chambers, Vodafone House, 21 Pitt Street
Location: ARC Chambers, Vodafone House, 21 Pitt Street
Location: ARC Chambers, Vodafone House, 21 Pitt Street
Location: ARC Chambers, Vodafone House, 21 Pitt Street



Sir John Houghton is co-chairman of the Science Assessment
Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
and a member of the British Government's Panel on Sustainable
Development. He was Professor of Atmospheric Physics at the
University of Oxford from 1976-1983, Chief Executive of the
Meteorological Office from 1983 to his retirement in 1991 and
Chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution
from 1992-1998. He has received Gold medals from the Royal
Meteorological Society and the Royal Astronomical Society and
the prestigious International Meteorological Organisation Prize.
He is author of 'Global Warming: the complete Briefing' which was
runner up for the Sir Peter Kent Conservation Book Prize in 1994.

*****************************************************
Bob McDavitt,  Auckland Met Soc Branch    mcdavitt@...

hi eveyone

check this page for cyclone reports ...

http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/pub/$NOTESYN.TXT
--
Brian, Maree,  Amelia & Janetta Hamilton
See my Weather data page at: (click the link below)
http://ps.gen.nz/~windy/otherdat.htm

Hamilton is 102% above normal and the Pinnacles on the Coromandel Ranges
above Thames is a whopping 414% above normal for November (183 and 633mm
to date respectively).

Still 1.5 days to go.

> ----------
> From:  Brian Hamilton[SMTP:windy@...]
> Reply To:  windy@...
> Sent:  Sunday, 28 November 1999 8:36 PM
> To:  metsocak@egroups.com
> Subject:  [metsocak] rain
>
> Hi there Auckland Met Soc members
>
> We have had 309mm for November !, 315mm is the record in 1967. Do you
> think we will break it before the southerly arrives?.
> From the Manukau Heads Weather Station
> --
> Brian, Maree,  Amelia & Janetta Hamilton
> See my Weather data page at: (click the link below)
> http://ps.gen.nz/~windy/otherdat.htm
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
> Was the salesman clueless?  Productopia has the answers.
> http://clickhere.egroups.com/click/1702
>
>
>
> eGroups.com Home: http://www.egroups.com/group/metsocak/
> http://www.egroups.com - Simplifying group communications
>
>
***************************************************
This e-mail is  not an  official  statement of  the
Waikato  Regional  Council unless otherwise stated.
Visit our new website http://www.ew.govt.nz
***************************************************

Hi there Auckland Met Soc members

We have had 309mm for November !, 315mm is the record in 1967. Do you
think we will break it before the southerly arrives?.
From the Manukau Heads Weather Station
--
Brian, Maree,  Amelia & Janetta Hamilton
See my Weather data page at: (click the link below)
http://ps.gen.nz/~windy/otherdat.htm

Report from Auckland branch of Met Soc

On Tuesday 12 October, thanks to the arrangements made by Prof. Geoff Austin
of Uni Auckland Physics department, we were able to treat our members to an
evening exploring weather on the Internet.  14 members attended, and we used
the Met Soc home page as a starting point.

We also fired up our egroups page and, for the first time, tried out its
chat mode, with one of our members across Auckland also connecting.  This
works Ok and so there may be the possibility
of more regular "chat shows" for Auckland members in the future. If we can't
chat about the weather what can we do? (to paraphrase Mark Twain).

There has also been a call amongst our members for a weather map drawing
workshop...we will look into that next year.

Next meeting will be organised next year when University is back, unless I
get an email asking for something special.

So that's 5 meetings this year, covering flash floods in Northland and
Auckland over summer,
a recap of Physics doctorate student papers,  a check on ARC rainfall data,
a look into the state of the art for seasonal projections,  and finally an
Internet night.  Overall, this year, RAIN has been our main topic.

bob

POSSIBLE SALE OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND LTD (MetService).

Comments by J S Hickman;  14 November 1999   jhickman@...

Contents
	 1.  Introduction
	 2.  Specific Comments on: (A), NZPA Article (McDavitt, 29 October 1999);
				         (B), "MetService: Review of Ownership Options
                                                                 - Synopsis
for Public Release, KPMG August 1999."
	 3.  Discussion
	 4.  Recommendations

1.  Introduction

I have recently read the "Synopsis for Public Release" of the KPMG Scoping
Study report concerning the possible sale of MetService in addition to the
NZPA article on the same topic provided by Bob McDavitt, 29 October 1999.

Two important maters arising from consideration of both of the above are:

(A)  Issues addressed to the KPMG Scoping Study Reviewing the Crown's
Ownership Options for MetService through submissions by the Meteorological
Society of NZ, The Royal Society of NZ and by individuals such as myself are
not mentioned directly in the Terms of Reference for the Study.

The terms of reference specifically seek "comment on whether the current MOT
contract is commercially robust...", and are, in general, of this form and
not in the form of whether or not the present arrangements or the role of
MetService are the only or best options for meeting New Zealand's present
and long-term needs. The above-mentioned submissions attempted to delve
deeper than a simple economic/accounting evaluation of MetService and look
towards the long-term national good, in particular, with respect to
meteorological data networks, research and public services. These issues are
clearly not specifically included in the terms of reference for the Scoping
Study.

(B)  The free-market/globalisation/less government principles that
successive New Zealand Governments have relentlessly pursued since 1984 are
now being questioned by many in both the market place and politics in New
Zealand and elsewhere. Exhortations of the last 15 years that "there is no
alternative" to the purely market-led/globalisation policy are, in the
absence of empirical evidence to support this claim, being challenged. There
is a marked trend in thinking that departs from a strong and solely
market-led/globalisation conceptual base to one that includes this general
concept and also accommodates a fair amount of pragmatism to satisfy social
and national interests.

Now is the opportune time to open a new discussion with respect to the
possible sale of MetService and to encourage and lead thinking and debate on
the most suitable arrangements for the conduct of meteorology in New
Zealand.

The following Specific Comments and Discussion are presented within the
framework created by the above two considerations.

2.  Specific Comments

(A)  NZPA Article

(a)  Return on Shareholders Funds
The financial position seems to be so good that one could question the
sanity of anyone disposing of an investment that returns 61.5%. Guided by
the old investment rule that "if it looks too good to be true it probably
is" one could also question the validity of the interpretation of the
figures. (Figures don't lie, but liars figure). Perhaps the initial
valuation of MetService was not all that realistic. It may be that although
present returns are high, assessed future returns are not, either because of
loss of market share or large foreseen capital expenditure. The financial
return statement requires amplification before it makes sense in terms of
any possible sale.

(b)  Public Ownership
The statement "An independent study by consultants KPMG said there were no
good public policy reasons for retaining public ownership of the weather
bureau" may well be correct. But I have not read their Synopsis in a way
that confirms this statement. Neither Parts 5 nor 6 of their Synopsis
contains this statement. There may be no good public policy reason why a
publicly owned company should carry out some of the work currently carried
out by MetService. In discarding this work the baby should not be thrown out
with the bath water. I consider that there are very good public policy
reasons for retaining public ownership of national meteorological data
networks, data collection, archiving, research and a public weather/climate
services programme. I have set these reasons out in my memo on the Role of
the State and in my submission to the KPMG Scoping Study (copy of latter
given to
Dr Mullan).

(c) Labour Part Spokesman (Paul Swain)
I consider that the Labour Party SOE spokesman, Paul Swain, be informed that
simply keeping the present MetService in public ownership is, whilst
laudable, insufficient within itself to give New Zealand the best in
meteorological services. A better data/research/
public service link is necessary in terms of the above-mentioned submissions
to the Scoping Study and consideration of this should be part of any future
assessment of options for MetService ownership, its structure and operation.

(d) NIWA - Super Computer
Mr Lumsden's comments re a super computer are unfortunate. Whilst it may be
very laudable and desirable to carry out operational tasks using the
combined power of a network of desktop PC's much research required to
improve these operational tasks still requires super computer facilities. I
hope that Mr Lumsden's comment, and that in the last paragraph of the NZPA
article, does not indicate that MetService is becoming too focused for its
own long-term good. I gain the impression that it may be.

(B)  KPMG: MetService: Review of Ownership Options - Synopsis for Public
Release


(a) General
I am deeply disappointed with the content of the KPMG Synopsis of its
"Review of Ownership Options". Sections 5 and 6 of the Synopsis give no
information on the key issue of the Scoping Study. It is a negation of any
democratic or consultative process to deny information on the essential
matters under consideration. This is an extreme action and outstanding
example of carrying application of the market-led/globalisation concept to
its limit when discussing a matter of national interest and importance.

Do the Priestly Caste find it necessary to limit the spread of information
and ideas because they cannot waste time dealing with the ignorant masses or
is it because they have no legitimate response to questions asked and ideas
presented by the knowledgeable few?

The Meteorological Society and all others interested in MetService and its
possible sale have been drastically short-changed in this report for public
release. It makes a mockery of the Minister for SOE's statement in
Parliament during the debate on legislation clearing the way for sale of
MetService that a report will be available.

(b) Executive Summary
Some detail given in the Executive Summary is not located in the main body
of the Synopsis.
Page 3, top para, RHS, states that there is a  WMO "requirement that calls
for NZ to maintain at least 33 weather observation stations". I assume that
this number of stations is that number agreed to by NZ at a meeting of WMO
RAV when the Regional Basic Synoptic Network (RBSN) was defined. The way in
which the RBSN is established is through a pooling of what each Member says
it will do and is NOT an external demand by WMO on Member States. The
statement is misleading if it is intended to give MetService Brownie Points
for doing more than "Big Brother" said it should do. "WMO requirement" is an
inappropriate phrase. (Appendix 2, p34 mentions that data are available from
"at least 40 stations".)

(c) Business
(i)  Part 1.1, para 1: the words "national meteorological service" (no
initial capitals).
I assume that the non-use of initial capitals is intended and draws a
distinction between the NZ situation with respect to public meteorological
services and that of other countries. For example, in Part 1.6, page 11,
(LHS) National Meteorological Service(s) (NMS) are mentioned. The "first
privately owned national meteorological service in the world" (page 5, LHS)
is, I assume, not a National Meteorological Service (NMS).   I am reminded
that in order to change a culture it is first necessary to change the use of
its language. There is a change in the Scoping Study in the use of the words
"national meteorological service", with or without initial capitals, and it
is important that when anyone uses the words we ALL know what is being
described.  A clarification of the terminology used is required.

(ii)  Part 1.2; page 6, diagram.
The NZ observational data released free of charge onto the Internet contains
essential instrumental data. It does not include equally essential
non-instrumental elements of an observation needed to describe "weather" as
it is understood in popular terms. Whilst this additional observational
information may be available to MetService and be used to provide detailed
weather forecasts for, say, airports and other specific locations it is not
widely available. The observational information available on the Internet is
thus incomplete in terms of the general meaning of the term "weather
observation" and the release of limited information does not provide
competing forecasters with a set of complete "weather" observations. The
"Government funded data" are incomplete and inadequate as a set of national
meteorological data. This deficiency requires correction.

(iii)  Part 1.2, page 7, Preparation of Forecasts, Table, RHS.
Warning and forecast services are set out. There is no information on the
dissemination of these forecasts. Where does one get the forecasts if they
do not have access to the Internet? Are the public forecasts on Teletext
those available under the MOT contract? Is weather information on the Web
Sites of many commercial organisations provided under the MOT contract or is
it specially prepared for these sites by MetService, or other providers, as
a commercial undertaking?

There is a serious conflict of interest where a provider is contracted by
the Government to provide public weather services through a contract to
which the public has no input, and the same provider tries to sell an
enhanced public service to the various news media. Similarly, the Warning
Services seem to be poorly related to the public forecasts now available
from several sources through the news media.

Again, with respect to Part 1.4 (page 9), one could ask "How much IPS-type
effort goes into the public forecasts prepared under the MOT contract?"
Forecasts for the public, prepared under the MOT contract deserve as intense
an effort in presentation as any other. Is this the case? Perhaps it is not
since the public forecasts prepared under the MOT contract appear to be
displaced from the news media, by others.

These matters are, of course, outside the direct terms of reference for the
Scoping Study. At the same time they seem to me to be relevant to issues
summarised in part 2.1 of the Synopsis.

(iv)  Part 1.6, page 11; Attitudes of other etc.
This seems to be a fair summary. At the same time, it raises the question as
to whether or not NZ should lead the charge to change the existing system to
one that, if others follow NZ's example, eventually becomes one controlled
to a large extent by undiluted commercial competition? MetService operates
successfully at present because of the historical co-operative system. An
entirely commercial system would eventually cost the NZ Government many
times the present contract price. Selling MetService would only accelerate
attainment of this outcome. A more co-operative attitude by NZ that more
nearly matched, say, the USA model would almost certainly prolong, if not
help cement in near-permanency the global co-operative system and the
relative low cost to NZ.

(d) Business Analysis
(i) Parts 2.2, 2.3; Data
The summary of the Commerce Commission's assessment of data access is
useful. Comments under (c)(iii) above refer to information required from a
meteorological data network for weather forecasting. Additional data are
required for other meteorological purposes but these are not addressed under
the terms of reference (see above Introduction and further comment under
"Discussion" below).

(e)  I have no specific comment on the remainder of the Synopsis.

3.  Discussion

The NZPA article summarises some aspects of the KPMG Synopsis for Public
Release and includes a view on Public Policy and ownership of MetService.
This view may have its origins in remarks made by an official, or minister,
when commenting on the KPMG Synopsis rather then in the Synopsis itself.

The KPMG study, correctly, addresses its terms of reference. However, the
terms of reference appear to have been narrowly, rather then broadly,
addressed with the result that the Synopsis contains no direct reference to
matters raised by the Meteorological Society, The Royal Society, and myself,
in submissions made to those responsible for the study. Again, the title of
the Synopsis; "MetService: A Review of Ownership Options - Synopsis for
Public Release", August 1999, is misleading. The Synopsis contains no review
of ownership options. It is, in general, an inadequate piece of work
containing very little, if any, information not already available to those
making submissions, before preparation of their submissions.

Part 1.6. Business Environment and Competition could readily be expanded to
include a wider discussion of why "Meteorological organisations still tend
to follow an academic or public good approach to the ownership of data and
knowledge they create." At the same time it should include a general
scenario of what a fully competitive commercial global meteorological system
may be, including consequences for NZ in both economic and public good
terms. That is, the possible consequences of following the NZ model to the
extremities of its application. Such an extension of the discussion could
address many of the issues raised in the above-mentioned submissions to the
study.

4. Recommendations:

That;
1.  The Meteorological Society express extreme disappointment with the
publicly available           report of the KPMG study
	 "Met Service:
	 A Review of Ownership Options
	 -Synopsis for Public Release"
       in that
	 (a) the terms of reference have been narrowly rather then broadly
interpreted, and
	 (b) there is no reference to matters raised by the Meteorological Society,
Royal                              Society and others in submissions to the
study, and
	 (c) there is little if any, new information in the report, and
	 (d) the title of the report is not supported by its content.

2.  The Meteorological Society directly address political leaders and
ministers/spokesmen on      SOE's seeking a more comprehensive assessment of
issues arising in consideration of the       sale of MetService.

3.  The Meteorological Society make a public statement/press release giving
its assessment of      work carried out so far concerning the possible sale
of MetService and expressing a desire      for wider public debate on
meteorology and the public good.

Today's News.......

Your committee is working on updating the Met Society Policy
statement covering the role of the State in Meteorology. In
the meantime all members are invited to send  their comments
about the attached news release to the committee c/-
metsoc@egroups.com
Our next meeting is 18 Nov.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Science, technology & health news
Metservice, eyed for sale, posts huge return on capital
The Meteorological Service, which the Government is eyeing
for sale, today showed itself to be a nice little earner.
Although its $3.2 million net profit posted today was down
fractionally on last year's $3.58 million, it represented an
astounding return of 61.5 percent on shareholders' funds.
The earnings were from revenue for the year to June of
$22.929 million, compared with $23.6 million last year.
Much of the drop in earnings for the year to June was
attributable to MetService having to hand over to the
Government a "special dividend" of $5 million a year ago.
Chief executive John Lumsden said this meant it had missed
out on interest from some of the $5 million.
The robust return on capital for the shareholding ministers,
Finance Minister Sir William Birch and State Owned
Enterprises Minister Tony Ryall, is expected to perk up
private sector interest in acquiring the weather
forecasters' cashflows.
The Government has put any decision on selling MetService on
the backburner until after the election.
But earlier this year it forced legislation through
Parliament under urgency to remove MetService and Vehicle
Test New Zealand Limited (VTNZ) from State-owned enterprises
statutes, allowing the Government to sell them.
An independent study by consultants, KPMG, said there were
no good public policy reasons for retaining public ownership
of the weather bureau.
Labour State Owned Enterprises spokesman Paul Swain has
promised the MetService will remain in public ownership, if
his party controls the next Government.
Giant Japanese corporate Weather News International and
United States internationals ACCU Weather, the Weather
Channel and Jepperson have been mooted as potential buyers
offshore, while in New Zealand, energy industry investor
Infratil, MetService competitor Weather Workshop, as well as
senior MetService staff and the National Institute of Water
and Atmospheric research (Niwa) are thought to be
interested.
Niwa has commissioned a huge super computer which has the
capacity to run in 30 minutes a computer model which can
produce a 36-hour weather forecast for the nation.
But Mr Lumsden said today that his operation was proving
quite efficient without a big computer - instead it used the
combined power of a network of desktop personal computers.
"The cost of computing power is coming down," said Mr
Lumsden.
"We're able to service our computing needs internally by
using a much cheaper but increasingly powerful PC
equipment."
More crucial than the number crunching was the human
interpretation of data, to fine-tune predictions to specific
localities.
Mr Lumsden said MetService was making a name for itself in
two key areas: aviation forecasting, and preparing
information and graphics - not all of it weather forecasts -
for media use.
The MetService also made money from packaging information
such as television programme listings and weather forecasts
for newspapers, as well as forecasts for television
networks.
In Australia, competition from state-subsidised forecasters
had cut back the number of newspapers serviced but now New
Zealand was providing the weather package for Channel 9
television, and was rolling out the technology to a
Singapore broadcaster.
In addition, it was packaging weather information and
graphics for South China Morning Post in Hong Kong, and was
providing aviation forecasts for China's Eastern Airlines.
MetService even had a niche business forecasting the
"weather" up among the jetstreams at 70,000 feet, for
chartered Concorde flights.
Mr Lumsden said the split-up of the old Weather Bureau into
the day-to-day forecaster, MetService, and research, now
done by Niwa, had given the forecaster better flexibility in
targeting the research it wanted done. © New Zealand Press
Association

Hi all

  The AMOS 2000 conference is being held at the University of Melbourne 7-9
Feb 2000.

It is the 7th Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society National
Conference and 5th Australian Conference on the Physics of Remote Sensingof
the Atmosphere and Ocean.

The theme for the AMOS 2000 conference is the use and application of
meteorological and oceanographic information, although talks on all aspects
of meteorology and oceanography are welcome.

Sep 30 was deadline for papers but if you can get in quick you might still
have a chance.


Go to http://www.dar.csiro.au/res/amos2000/  for more info.

             Bob McDavitt

HI

Corner of Wellesley St and Princes St.  Enter from the first entrance on
Princes St heading from Wellesley St..  There are lifts in the foyer.


Stuart.

At 06:49 AM 10/8/99 +1300, you wrote:
>Hi Bob,
>
>What is the address of the Physics Bldg again? I know I was there before,
>but I've forgotten.
>
>Cheers,
>Austin
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Bob McDavitt, Weather Ambassador [mailto:mcdavitt@...]
>Sent: October 7, 1999 11:12 AM
>To: Metsocak@Egroups. Com
>Subject: [metsocak] M E T E O R O L O G I C A L S O C I E T Y M E E T I
>N G
>
>
>Browsing the Internet and checking the weather and climate
>also (on the side)
>downloading maps with latest observations plotted and drawing weather maps
>
>Come along to the computer room 624 in the Physics Building at Auckland
>University
>on the evening of TUESDAY 12 OCTOBER.
>
>There will be light refreshments available from the friendly physics people
>in the
>7th floor common room from 5:30pm
>
>We have plenty of computers available and several interesting new links to
>demo.
>
>            Bob McDavitt for Met Society
>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>@Backup - The #1 Online Backup Service.  Protect your files before
>you lose them. Easy, Reliable, Secure online backups. INSTALL
>today.  http://clickhere.egroups.com/click/938
>
>
>eGroups.com home: http://www.egroups.com/group/metsocak
>http://www.egroups.com - Simplifying group communications
>
>
>
>
>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>@Backup - The #1 Online Backup Service.  Protect your files before
>you lose them. Easy, Reliable, Secure online backups. INSTALL
>today.  http://clickhere.egroups.com/click/938
>
>
>eGroups.com home: http://www.egroups.com/group/metsocak
>http://www.egroups.com - Simplifying group communications
>
>
>
>
======================================
Dr Stuart Bradley
Senior Lecturer
Physics Department
University of Auckland
Private Bag 92019, Auckland
New Zealand
Phone 64 9 373 7599 Extension 8899
FAX 64 9 373 7445
s.bradley@...
======================================

Would someone at the meeting be so kind as to email this country mouse any
interesting info that arises? WWW links would be ideal.

Regards

173°43'E    35°07'S

______________________________________________________

For those that don't have the address, the upcoming Auckland Met Soc
Meeting is to be held at:

Maths and Physics Building
38 Princes Street

(corner of Wellesley St E. and Princes St)

Kim

Hi Bob,

What is the address of the Physics Bldg again? I know I was there before,
but I've forgotten.

Cheers,
Austin

-----Original Message-----
From: Bob McDavitt, Weather Ambassador [mailto:mcdavitt@...]
Sent: October 7, 1999 11:12 AM
To: Metsocak@Egroups. Com
Subject: [metsocak] M E T E O R O L O G I C A L S O C I E T Y M E E T I
N G


Browsing the Internet and checking the weather and climate
also (on the side)
downloading maps with latest observations plotted and drawing weather maps

Come along to the computer room 624 in the Physics Building at Auckland
University
on the evening of TUESDAY 12 OCTOBER.

There will be light refreshments available from the friendly physics people
in the
7th floor common room from 5:30pm

We have plenty of computers available and several interesting new links to
demo.

             Bob McDavitt for Met Society


------------------------------------------------------------------------
@Backup - The #1 Online Backup Service.  Protect your files before
you lose them. Easy, Reliable, Secure online backups. INSTALL
today.  http://clickhere.egroups.com/click/938


eGroups.com home: http://www.egroups.com/group/metsocak
http://www.egroups.com - Simplifying group communications

Here are the results of the vote:

1. Weather maps 	 1
2. Internet weather 	 5

Browsing the Internet and checking the weather and climate
also (on the side)
downloading maps with latest observations plotted and drawing weather maps

Come along to the computer room 624 in the Physics Building at Auckland
University
on the evening of TUESDAY 12 OCTOBER.

There will be light refreshments available from the friendly physics people
in the
7th floor common room from 5:30pm

We have plenty of computers available and several interesting new links to
demo.

             Bob McDavitt for Met Society

Option 1 is for an Internet browsing session.  I can show some cool sites which
allow you to map out months of data....or the ideas for the next week.

Option 2 is a weather map drawing evening,
come armed with a pencil and try and make pattern out of the observed choas. 
Would you be keen to have a go?



----

Please select one of the following:

    o Internet weather
    o Weather maps


by going to the following Web form:

    http://www.egroups.com/vote?id=938748796480

Thank you!

Hi all

There will be a full report from our recent AGM later.

One thing you may well be pleased to hear from the AGM is
that we have agreed to simplify our subscription system as
follows:

The subscription rate is $30 per year for ordinary members
and $90 per year for Institutional members.
The subscription year is August to July.
For postage overseas a charge of $NZ5 is made for surface
mail or $15 for airmail.


And here is a write-up of our last Auckland meeting

============================================================
Last Auckland Meeting
A small turnout (8) for our meeting in August on "Seasonal
Projections"   Members were delighted to find out that the
main providers in NZ of  ideas on  weather for the coming
season meet each month and discuss the available data until
they come to a consensus on projections.

Bob McDavitt, Weather Ambassador for MetService briefly
explained how the focus of the MetService Seasonal forecast
is in looking for weather map scenarios to watch out for in
the next two months.

Georgina Daw of NIWA, introduced the newly formed National
Climate Centre and its monthly publication "Climate Update".
The Climate Update is available on the Internet at
http://www.niwa.cri.nz/NCC/index.html or it can be posted to
you as a 4 page publication containing colourful climate
maps.

   The "Climate update" contains maps showing  last months
temperature,  rain , river flow and soil moisture anomalies,
also a look at the global setting, and a three month
outlook.  There is a monthly "checkpoint" which comments on
the outcome of the previous projection and a "viewpoint"
with comments on something of interest such as the ski
season.

To quote Georgina, who now works for the NCC, "Our goal is
to help New Zealanders manage for climate variations,
including droughts.  Our climate predictions will not be
perfect. However, when coupled with past climate information
and current data, they can help users manage climate-related
risks, make better decisions, and reduce losses."

============================================================

Now if any of you have some secret wish for our next meeting
please let me know at mcdavitt@...
============================================================


By the way everyone and anyone, if you would prefer it, you
can arrange for these postings NOT to be sent to you via
email (if you'd like just to read them on the web )
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cheers
bob mcdavitt

Bob,

For your information, Environment Waikato has just commissioned a
Drought Risk Mitigation Study in association with Waikato University,
MAF, Ag NZ, and Matamata-PIako District Council. I understand form a
regional council perspective this is actually breaking new ground
(forming a policy for planners to follow etc). Drought has hit the
Waikato economy in the last 2 summers harder than people think, and we
seem to have full support from the rural sector. It's all good stuff.

This follows on from our Drought Hazard study that was completed in Feb
by a MSc student at the university.

Stay tuned my friend.

cheers,
Adam.

>----------
>From:  Bob McDavitt, Weather Ambassador[SMTP:mcdavitt@...]
>Reply To:  metsocak@egroups.com
>Sent:  Thursday, 16 September 1999 5:28 PM
>To:  Met Soc comm egroups; Metsocak@Egroups. Com; metsocwn@egroups.com;
>metsocch@egroups.com
>Subject:  [metsocak] Met soc contribution to FRST StrategicPortfilio Outlines
>(SPOs)
>
>From the President of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand
>
>Thanks for the work done by your committees in preparing the SPOs.
>
>Here are some of our members ideas about the SPOs that touch on to
>meteorology and climatology.
>
>Natural Physical Hazards
>
>1… Hey ,  what about droughts?  We think droughts in New Zealand are more
>than just a rural problem. They influence our economy. They need special
>attention.   All the bullet points under "Strategic Objectives - Managing
>Volcanological Hazards" apply equally well to droughts.
>
>2. Strategic Direction.  We urge that "Improved Forecasting of Hazards" be
>inserted  as Strategic Direction number 2.  This is a natural follow-on from
>"Defining the hazardscape" and a logical step before "Mitigation and
>Planning", and should be an important component of any
>research programme.
>
>3. Too heavily weighted towards policy and planning.
>This SPO should state clearly that PGSF funds are to be used for science,
>for understanding how hazards happen. It must be made clear this there is
>this no intention for this SPO to be an avenue for funding of the planning
>responsibilities of, for example, regional councils. Also it should also be
>made clear that research providers cannot be made responsible for the hazard
>mitigation and planning aspects of the Strategic Directions, for they have
>no such regulatory powers.  The research providers can, of course, be
>suitably
>encouraged to do the underpinning research needed by planners
>and engineers.
>
>
>Global Environmental Processes & Change SPO:
>
>1. There is under-emphasis on "variability".  The Society has no official
>standpoint on this, but we allow and encourage members to voice their
>viewpoint, and many of our members have the view that there is  sufficient
>evidence to show that the weather is becoming more wild and that the climate
>is becoming more variable.
>This SPO does mention "variability", but it seems to be an
>afterthought, and does not receive the emphasis it deserves.
>In our oceanic environment, particularly, year to year variability is
>still poorly documented or understood.  Natural variability is a key
>component of international global change research. The reason the
>IPCC is so cautious about attributing the cause of observed climate
>change to anthropogenic influences is because natural variability is
>so large (and complex).  Also natural variation, occurring over a time
>multidecadal time scale, obscures any anthropogenic trend.
>
>ii) There is an overemphasis on international collaboration in this
>SPO. This is a laudable aim, but the pendulum has now swung too
>far in this direction.
>
>As the portfolio is written at present, international collaboration
>could be seen as the single most important reason for funding this
>area of research.  This is a false impression (we hope!), and should
>be corrected. For example, the first 2 Strategic Directions are
>concerned solely with international programmes, which are also
>mentioned again in Direction 3. In fact, Direction 3, which
>emphasises the benefit of the research to New Zealand,  should be
>Direction 1 and should be expanded beyond just the "changes in
>... scope".
>
>Well that's it,  the collective opinion of our membership on these SPOs.
>Thanks for the opportunity for us to pass on our ideas,  this is
>appreciated.  I hope you may be able to take a snippet or two from these and
>any other contributions so that the final SPOs will fully reflect our
>collective thinking,. This is a step forwards to the ultimate benefit of  us
>all.
>
>Bob McDavitt
>President , Met Soc. NZ
>Mcdavitt@...
>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>eGroups.com home: http://www.egroups.com/group/metsocak
>http://www.egroups.com - Simplifying group communications
>
>
>
>
>
***************************************************
This e-mail is  not an  official  statement of  the
Waikato  Regional  Council unless otherwise stated.
***************************************************

From the President of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand

Thanks for the work done by your committees in preparing the SPOs.

Here are some of our members ideas about the SPOs that touch on to
meteorology and climatology.

Natural Physical Hazards

1… Hey ,  what about droughts?  We think droughts in New Zealand are more
than just a rural problem. They influence our economy. They need special
attention.   All the bullet points under "Strategic Objectives - Managing
Volcanological Hazards" apply equally well to droughts.

2. Strategic Direction.  We urge that "Improved Forecasting of Hazards" be
inserted  as Strategic Direction number 2.  This is a natural follow-on from
"Defining the hazardscape" and a logical step before "Mitigation and
Planning", and should be an important component of any
research programme.

3. Too heavily weighted towards policy and planning.
This SPO should state clearly that PGSF funds are to be used for science,
for understanding how hazards happen. It must be made clear this there is
this no intention for this SPO to be an avenue for funding of the planning
responsibilities of, for example, regional councils. Also it should also be
made clear that research providers cannot be made responsible for the hazard
mitigation and planning aspects of the Strategic Directions, for they have
no such regulatory powers.  The research providers can, of course, be
suitably
encouraged to do the underpinning research needed by planners
and engineers.


Global Environmental Processes & Change SPO:

1. There is under-emphasis on "variability".  The Society has no official
standpoint on this, but we allow and encourage members to voice their
viewpoint, and many of our members have the view that there is  sufficient
evidence to show that the weather is becoming more wild and that the climate
is becoming more variable.
This SPO does mention "variability", but it seems to be an
afterthought, and does not receive the emphasis it deserves.
In our oceanic environment, particularly, year to year variability is
still poorly documented or understood.  Natural variability is a key
component of international global change research. The reason the
IPCC is so cautious about attributing the cause of observed climate
change to anthropogenic influences is because natural variability is
so large (and complex).  Also natural variation, occurring over a time
multidecadal time scale, obscures any anthropogenic trend.

ii) There is an overemphasis on international collaboration in this
SPO. This is a laudable aim, but the pendulum has now swung too
far in this direction.

As the portfolio is written at present, international collaboration
could be seen as the single most important reason for funding this
area of research.  This is a false impression (we hope!), and should
be corrected. For example, the first 2 Strategic Directions are
concerned solely with international programmes, which are also
mentioned again in Direction 3. In fact, Direction 3, which
emphasises the benefit of the research to New Zealand,  should be
Direction 1 and should be expanded beyond just the "changes in
... scope".

Well that's it,  the collective opinion of our membership on these SPOs.
Thanks for the opportunity for us to pass on our ideas,  this is
appreciated.  I hope you may be able to take a snippet or two from these and
any other contributions so that the final SPOs will fully reflect our
collective thinking,. This is a step forwards to the ultimate benefit of  us
all.

Bob McDavitt
President , Met Soc. NZ
Mcdavitt@...

http://www.nws.fsu.edu/B/buoy?station=FPSN7
--
Brian, Maree,  Amelia & Janetta Hamilton
See my Weather data page at: (click the link below)
http://ps.gen.nz/~windy/otherdat.htm

http://www.nws.fsu.edu/B/buoy?station=41004
--
Brian, Maree,  Amelia & Janetta Hamilton
See my Weather data page at: (click the link below)
http://ps.gen.nz/~windy/otherdat.htm

Hi everyone

You can get the latest weather data on the hurricane Floyd heading for
Florida at this address:

http://www.nws.fsu.edu/buoy/fl.html
--
Brian, Maree,  Amelia & Janetta Hamilton
See my Weather data page at: (click the link below)
http://ps.gen.nz/~windy/otherdat.htm

Hi all
A reminder

  The future path for governmental funding for meteorological
and climatological research is under review..

  The Foundation for Research Science and Technology  are
asking for comments on their draft Strategic Portfolio
Outlines (SPOs)
http://www.frst.govt.nz/public/foresight/spo.htm

The deadline for comments on the SPO for Natural Physical
Hazards is Wednesday 15 Sept
This is a PDF file at
http://www.frst.govt.nz/public/foresight/spo/Hazards.PDF

The deadline for comments on the SPO for Global
Environmental Process and Change is Friday 17 September.
This PDF file is at
http://www.frst.govt.nz/public/foresight/spo/Hazards.PDF

Comments are to be sent to pgsf@...

I am reminding members with an interest in these SPOs to
submit their comments to FRST before deadline.

I am also inviting members to send any comments they may
have regarding these SPOs to me at Mcdavitt@... so
that we might be able to arrange a combined reply under the
auspices of the Meteorological Society.

Bob McDavitt , President  Met Soc.

Hi all

Flyer.doc has been added to the VAULT.  Its written in WORD
97 and is a doc which contains a flyer for Met Soc (one
page) and an application form 9one page).  You can print it
out and spread it round!

bob

Thanks for the posting austin

   Good to see that some one is awake


The using of telegraph (morse) to gather weather data was first practised by
the Union army during the US Civil war.....again advances in meteorology and
war are intertwined!

TV is an interesting one....has it done anything for meteorology?  maybe it
has caused an evolution in presentation styles and briefing methods?


as for the least moving moments...
along with cloud seeding  we might add hail cannons,  but this is still
being debated,  and the spirit behind these inventions is to mitigate
damage,  which is nobel in itself.

bob


BTW everyone --- if you do NOT want to get these postings emailed to you,
simply let me know at mcdavitt@... and I'll put your subscription into
"web only" mode.

Hi Bob,

Just to add my tupenny's worth to the 3 M's (Moving Moments in
Meteorology) - some acknowledgement for the dispensing media and
number-crunching tools that have made modern meteorology what it is - first
the telegraph that relayed weather conditions from one coast to the other in
N. America and across the Tasman down here, allowing information to travel
faster than weather systems for the first time thereby resulting in the
first practical weather forecasts, at least for downstream stations -
followed by telephone and radio communications.

Supercomputers, of course were a precursor to those global weather models on
your list. Should I up the ante to a thrupenny's worth and throw in the
Internet for the incredible explosion of meteorological data that is now
available at one's fingertips, or is the verdict still out on that one - one
wonders how many serious researchers have become data junkies, searching out
all the glorious pictures available on the net instead of contributing to
it.

Oh, and maybe one more - almost up to a coin's worth now - a precursor to
WWW - the first WWW - the extremely worthwhile world weather organisation
that has been lofting balloons and radio-sondes into the atmosphere and
recording weather observations in an organised fashion for some time now.

I could probably scratch my way up to a five-cent coin but I'll stop here
and offer kudos to the Met Society for helping to ward off privatisation of
the Met Service in this millennium and hopefully extending into the next.
Weather forecasting and research is definitely more suitable to co-operative
ventures, not competing ones.

Which leads one to entertain a 10 least moving moments in meteorology in the
last millennium? Privatisation would have headed the list but perhaps I can
throw out one suggestion that would top my list but is sure to provoke a
response, one that was conspicuously absent from my dispensing media list -
television.

Others - cloud seeding, all TV weather presenters who are not
meteorologists, rainmakers... Can you add any that won't jeopardise your
career possibilities?

Warm regards,
Austin

Hi everyone

check out this data from a wave buoy adrifit off mexico in the hurricane
Brett !
http://www.nws.fsu.edu/B/buoy?station=42020

also this site for a grea sat pic:
http://defiant.wrh.noaa.gov/hurr/currir.htm
--
Brian, Maree,  Amelia & Janetta Hamilton
See my Weather data page at: (click the link below)
http://ps.gen.nz/~windy/otherdat.htm

I thought I might as well put something on the board....

Can anyone recommend a good read for info on decyphering tephigrams?

..That's about it for now.

Regards

Pete McGhee

Here's my list, to start stirring some meteorlogical
coservation amongst us.

The 10 most moving moments in meteorology in the last
millennium (according to bob)
I've attached Brett's ideas at the end (as of a few months
ago)

can any one top the following?

1. Evangelista Torrecelli was asked by Gallelio to
investigate why water pumps can only work over 10 metres.
After two years he completed this task and even designed a
device to measure the weight of the air.. a barometer.

2. The dutch mathematician Buys Ballot underlines the
relationship between pressure difference and (geostrophic)
wind.  At last, weather maps are born.  At the Great
Exhibition in London in 1840 they are sold for one penny
each. Taking into account inflation averaging 3% and the
exchage rate, that's something like $NZ9 in 1999.

3. Crimean War.  A storm sunk several French and British
ships on Novemeber 14, 1854. Meteorologists were able to
reconstruct the conditions on maps and realised that it
could have been predicted easily and warnings sent. Daily
weather maps and wind warnings soon follow.

4. World War One contributed many militaristic words such as
"frontal invasion" into the meteorological language.
Aviation meteorology starts flying.

5. World War Two brought us RADAR and at last we could map
the rain-making clouds and try and track them.  Also the
impact of jetstreams was only realised when Us tried to bomb
Japan with
bombers based in Japan.

6. 1950 marked the start of the World Meteorological
Organiztion, with national representatatives and the sharing
of weather data.

7. 1960.  Nimbus II is launched . Meteorological satellites
gave us a view from on top of the clouds, showing their
shape and sculpture.  Soon followed by Geostationary
Meteorological Satellites.

8. 1970's  Computer Models start forecasting our daily
weather (Richardson's dream of the 1920's). Global computer
models follow.

9. 1980's  Ozone hole detected.

10. 1990's Climate modelling finally good enough to mimic
the last 100 years predicts global warning for the next 100
years (1000 years?)

Half the most moving moments have been in the last 50
years...can anyone predict the next moving moment?


Brett's ideas....
Hi Bob

Yes, top ten for the millenium would be very interesting.
I'm sure
there are lots of possibilities, depending on whether you
focus on
the global scene or more locally.  A few of the top of my
head (&
cribbing from "Sails to Satellites" by John de Lisle) are:

1, 2, 3, ...: Involvement of famous historical figures like:
Fahrenheit,
Celsius, Pascal.

4: Discovery of sunspots by Galileo Galilei in 1611, three
years
after the invention of the telescope by Dutch craftsmen.
There
followed nearly 400 years of speculation, and still no
agreement, on
just how sunspot activity affects the Earth's weather.

5: 13 Dec 1642: First New Zealand weather report - of a
storm
experienced by Abel Tasman off the west coast of NZ.

6: ~1830: First lies told about NZ weather ( :-) ) - "The
climate of
New Zealand is decidedly temperate; ... It is no doubt
salubrious
and congenial to European constitutions. Those who come here
sickly are restored to health; the healthy become robust and
the
robust fat ..." (Rev. William Yate, missionary in Bay of
Islands).

7: 1861 - start of organised official meteorological
observations in
NZ, and of the New Zealand Meteorological Service, the
forerunner
of the current SOE.

I'm sure Erick can come up with heaps.  Maybe a competition
by
members for Most Significant, Funniest, etc?

Brett

A rainbow will be given to everyone who replies (says bob)

Met Soc Meeting
  Wed 18 Aug  at NIWA Conference Room , Corner Kyver Pass and
Mountain Roads
    Wed 18 Aug  at NIWA Conference Room , Corner Kyver Pass
and Mountain Roads
     Wed 18 Aug  at NIWA Conference Room , Corner Kyver Pass
and Mountain Roads
       Wed 18 Aug  at NIWA Conference Room , Corner Kyver
Pass and Mountain Roads
     Wed 18 Aug  at NIWA Conference Room , Corner Kyver Pass
and Mountain Roads
    Wed 18 Aug  at NIWA Conference Room , Corner Kyver Pass
and Mountain Roads
  Wed 18 Aug  at NIWA Conference Room , Corner Kyver Pass and
Mountain Roads


6pm Light Refreshments and 6:30pm start

Seasional Projections Seasional Projections
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       Seasional Projections Seasional Projections
          Seasional Projections Seasional Projections
       Seasional Projections Seasional Projections
    Seasional Projections Seasional Projections
Seasional Projections Seasional Projections



Georgina Daw  (NIWA)  introduces the Climate Update as
issued by the newly formed
NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTRE

Bob McDavitt (MetService) comments on the MetFax "Seasonal
Forecast".

See ya there See ya there See ya there See ya there See ya
there See ya there See ya there

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