Met Society Newsletter

DECEMBER WEATHER CLIPPINGS

For a printable pdf of this newsletter : http://metsoc.rsnz.org/Newsletter/clipsdec2008.pdf 

Sun, glorious sun - and rain to come

Monday Dec 01, 2008 By Vaimoana Tapaleao  NZ Herald

Casey Ramritu (9) relaxes in the sun on the Old Mangere Bridge as he joined other kids on Sunday for the Carters Kids gone fishin day. Photo / AP

The weekend's glorious run of sunshine and warm temperatures throughout the country will be gone this week.

Rain will welcome Aucklanders back to work today, with a temperature of 20C predicted - slightly lower than the scorching maximum of 26C in the city yesterday.

MetService weather forecaster Ian Gall said most places throughout the country had had warm temperatures during the weekend, with the hottest place being Kawerau, which reached 28C.

Other places with some of the warmest temperatures included the Manawatu-Horowhenua area, which fetched up to 26C, and Thames and the Waikato-Waitomo area registering around 27C.

Rescued climber in 'remarkable' condition

By BECK ELEVEN at Mount Cook Village - The Press /Waikato Times | 05 December 2008

SURVIVOR: Hideaki Nara is brought to Christchurch by Westpac Rescue Helicopter after his mountain ordeal.

The climber rescued from Mt Cook/Aoraki this morning after a week-long ordeal which claimed the life of his guide is in "remarkable" condition, Christchurch Hospital staff say.

Hideaka Nara, 51, was airlifted to hospital this morning suffering frostbite, but his climbing companion Kiyoshi Ikenouchi, 49, perished overnight, just hours before the rescue helicopter arrived.

The pair endured seven days at 3700m on the country's highest peak in ferocious weather conditions which prevented earlier rescue attempts.

Despite suffering frostbite to his hands and face, Nara was able to walk to the helicopter.

Ikenouchi and Nara are understood to have lost their tent yesterday and may have lost a sleeping bag as well, leaving only one between them. The men spent last night in the open as their tent either became buried in snow or blew away, Police Inspector Dave Gaskin said.  Supplies were dropped near their camp yesterday, but Gaskin said rescuers confirmed this morning the pair did not know they were there.  But it may not have made much of a difference in the end, as the pair were already very well equipped, he said.

Mr Ikenouchi - who helped in a rescue on the mountain five years ago - is the 69th climber known to have died on New Zealand's highest peak, and the seventh Japanese.

Little relief likely in forecast rain

By PAUL GORMAN - The Press | Tuesday, 09 December 2008

STACY SQUIRES/The Press

DUSTY: Geoffrey Wilson's farm near Methven is drying up already - predicted rain is unlikely to do more than whet the appetite of farmers in Canterbury.

Predicted rain today is unlikely to do more than whet the appetite of farmers and briefly slow the brown tinge advancing across Canterbury.

Forecasters expect parts of the region to receive close to 10mm of rain by this evening. While that will help, it is not enough to turn the situation around.

During the past three months North Canterbury, the foothills and some inland basins of South Canterbury have had less than 20mm of rain.

The looming drought has been heightened by high temperatures and warm north to north-west winds sucking moisture from the ground.

Methven farmer Geoffrey Wilson said the early dry spell had made farming difficult.

"It's tricky to be dry in December because you are trying to save feed and build reserves up."  Despite the dry conditions, it was not a drought, Wilson said.

"I would call it dry but I wouldn't call it a drought. The last couple of months have been warm and windy. It has not affected crops much at all but if we don't get any rain within the next couple of weeks it will start affecting our crops. It has put a bit of pressure on the livestock side of it. Growth in the grass paddocks has been quite slow."

MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said the speed that moisture evaporated at this time of the year with about 5mm lost a day was a big concern.

Central and Mid-Canterbury were likely to get the most rain today, with between 5mm and 10mm, but North and South Canterbury might receive only a couple of millimetres.

 Blue Skies Weather director Tony Trewinnard said inland South Canterbury had been driest for longest, since September. However, North Canterbury had dried out faster during the past few weeks than any other part of the region.

Rain today would at least stop farmers getting further behind with soil-moisture deficit.

A look back at New Zealand's year of weather extremes

Tue, 16 Dec 2008 2:49p.m.  TV3

A summer credited as the eighth warmest in 100 years had people wondering when the golden days would fade and the wintry cold would return.

Rainfall was below normal over much of the North Island and lower South Island, and the Waikato received less than half the normal level, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric research (Niwa) reported.

Farmers fought the effects of a summer-autumn drought, as a La Nina weather pattern spread dry conditions across the country.

However, an abrupt end to those conditions arrived in mid-April, when a deluge swept over the North Island, claiming eight lives and wreaking havoc.

Despite MetService warnings to be wary of streams and rivers rising quickly, a group from Auckland's Elim Christian College were caught out canyoning down the Mangatepopo River in Tongariro National Park on April 15.

Teacher Tony McClean, 29, and 16-year-old students Tom Hsu, Natasha Bray, Anthony Mulder, Tara Gregory, Floyd Fernandes and Portia McPhail, died when a torrent of water created a flash flood in the gorge.

All had been at the Sir Edmund Hillary Outdoor Pursuits Centre of New Zealand on a course.

Earlier in that day, another person died in a Northland lighting storm . Roger McGill, 61, was struck by a bolt of lightning while sitting on his horse. Both were killed instantly.

Northland Hunt spokeswoman Donna Austin said there had been several bolts of lightning and Mr McGill appeared to have been struck by the final one.

"It was the most bizarre weather patterns, forked lightning, the lot -- and that is when the gentleman was struck and killed and so was his horse."

Amid the mayhem much-needed rain hit the parched Waikato, arriving in quantities much greater than locals wanted.

Rainfall that came close to breaking records in many parts of the country continued into July, and stormy conditions were blamed for the deaths of three men at sea.

Rotorua canoeist James Moore, 33, drowned when he capsized off the Mt Maunganui coast in large swells on July 26.

Further east at Opotiki, Rick Josephs, 38, and Damien Wyatt, 35, died the following day, when their fishing boat grounded in heavy seas.

Two storms hit in quick succession at the end of July and beginning of August, the first of which claimed the lives of a Northland couple.

Kerry Witt and Lavona Cherrington were swept away as they tried to cross a ford in the Bay of Islands.

Then August storms created further devastation, with Marlborough declaring a state of emergency as it was hit by severe flooding.

East Coast, Bay of Plenty and parts of Upper Hutt also suffered from flood damage, while gale-force winds caused major disruptions in Hawke's Bay, Horowhenua, Nelson, and on the West Coast.

Tornadoes struck both the West Coast and Bay of Plenty, lifting off roofing iron and tearing down trees.

On Auckland's North Shore, 14 houses were evacuated after heavy rain caused a massive slip.

In the wash-up, the Insurance Council estimated the damage from the August storms to be in excess of $50 million, and still it wasn't over.

Rapid rainfall caused further loss of life in October, when a vigorous storm lashed Taranaki and Canterbury.

Dunedin ecologist Diane May Campbell-Hunt, was tramping on Mount Taranaki when the weather hit on October 7. She died when she was swept away while trying to cross a stream.

Intense rain had flooded streams on the mountain, Sergeant Andrew Ross said.

"Those streams are little more than a trickle normally but heavy rainfall can turn them into a raging torrent. An hour later they can be back to normal," Mr Ross said.

In late November, search and rescue workers began efforts to rescue two Japanese climbers trapped on Aoraki/Mt Cook's summit.

For nearly a week, high winds prevented rescuers from being able to reach the men, 3700m up the country's tallest mountain.

On December 5, a helicopter was at last able to lift Hideaki Nara, 51, off the summit.

When the chopper returned for his companion, the would-be rescuers were crushed to di scover guide Kiyoshi Ikenouchi, 41, had died hours earlier.

Bleak as the news was elsewhere, snow being dumped on to mountains meant ski fields reported their best year ever.

Ski Areas Association spokesman Miles Davidson said snow conditions had been fantastic on all fields and its members had sold 1,402,000 passes, 116,000 more than last year, and 1000 more than the previous record in 2006.

As fast as the cold weather came, the rain seemed to dry up and once again experts began talking about summer droughts after a mild spring.

Farmers and other growers on the East Coast of the North Island had early concerns, with Niwa spring weather data showing less than half the normal rainfall in parts of Gisborne and Hawke's Bay.

Farmers aside, most of the country was likely to be pleased by the mild start to summer, with Niwa predicting warm and settled weather across the country.

By Jude Gillies on Wed, 17 Dec 2008  Otago Daily Times

The Wakatipu area is more likely than not to get warmer and wetter weather than usual this summer. Photo by Jude Gillies.

This week's rain is not unexpected, because December was still the start of summer and the weather typically remained unsettled until after Christmas, Wellington MetService forecaster Kathleen Kozyniak said.

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) climate scientist Dr Andrew Tait said, based on the Niwa seasonal outlook for December to February, Wakatipu had a "slightly above average" chance of having a warmer and wetter summer than usual.

Rather than making a prediction, Niwa gave the "likelihood" of eventualities, he said.

He likened the chance of a warm, wet summer this year to that of spinning a chocolate wheel divided into three wedges, where there was a 40% chance of the temperatures being average and a 40% chance of them being above average and just a 20 % chance of it being cooler.

It was the same for rainfall in Wakatipu, which was most likely to be the usual or higher this summer, he said.  "But there's still a chance of it being less, but less of a chance," he added. “

Meanwhile, the eastern side of the South Island, in the rain shadow area, could expect a greater likelihood of warmer, drier weather.

Hot year is beyond reasonable drought

Dec 18, 2008 By Eloise Gibson Herald

A farmer in South Australia hand-feeds his cattle after a heatwave brought 15 consecutive days above 35C. Photo / AP

The world has been sweltering in what is thought to be the 10th hottest year on record - one in which Arctic sea ice shrank and the hole in the ozone layer stayed stubbornly large.

Data released by the World Meteorological Organisation yesterday showed the globe was 0.31 degrees celsius hotter than the 1961-1990 average of 14C.

And New Zealand kept pace with the world's warming - preliminary results show the average temperature here was about 0.3C hotter in 2008 than the average for the past three decades.

The WMO - which collects climate data from around the world - said 2008 was cooler than other years in the 21st century because of a La Nina weather pattern.

But it was warm for a La Nina year, and was likely to be the 10th hottest year since records began in 1850.

While New Zealanders grumbled about the quick onset of winter, other parts of the globe suffered extreme cold, devastating floods, sizzling heatwaves and prolonged droughts.

In January, parts of Turkey shivered through their coldest nights in almost 50 years - part of a cold wave that killed hundreds of people in Afghanistan and China.

In March, a record heatwave in southern Australia brought Adelaide its longest-running hot spell - 15 consecutive days with maximum temperatures above 35C.

A very warm northern summer shrank Arctic sea ice to its second-smallest area, and smallest volume since satellite measurements began in 1979.

The ozone hole grew to its second-biggest size this year - and CO2 levels in the atmosphere kept rising rapidly.

Arctic sea ice shrank to its smallest surface area of 4.3 million km in 2007. However, because the ice was thinner this year, the volume of ice was less in 2008 than in any other year.

Niwa climate scientist James Renwick said the sea ice was melting more quickly than scientists had expected, meaning global warming might accelerate beyond UN
forecasts.  Ice deflects the sun's heat better than water, so melting Arctic ice could speed the pace of global warming. Mr Renwick said the ice could melt completely within a decade.

WMO said the growth rate of CO2 in the atmosphere - thought to be the biggest culprit behind the warming- had increased about 2 parts per million every year since 2000.

Forecast: fine - or otherwise

Saturday Dec 20, 2008 By Chris Barton  Weekend Herald

MetService Weather Ambassador Bob McDavitt at MetService's Westhaven base.

 Photo / Martin Sykes

Weather ambassador?

"Oh well, yes, I act as a go-between for the weather and its users. I can't communicate very well with the weather, but I can communicate with the users of the weather."

Weather users? "The main thing is to make sure people who are using the weather forecasts are aware they are forecasts - that they come from isobar land."

Isobar land? "People live in the real world. We don't. We live in the world of models - so once you have a concept of isobar land you won't have any gripe with forecasters." Right. But why is it so many do? To answer these and other questions, such as what's in store weather-wise this summer, the Herald asked three weather forecasters about how they look into the future. Be warned, isobar land can be a strange and shifting landscape.

What is the outlook for this summer?

Niwa, our National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, says above-average temperatures and near normal rainfalls are the most likely outcome across most of the country. The west of the South Island may be a little wetter and there's likely to be less rain than normal in the east. Soils are drier than normal in many eastern regions at the moment and eastern regions could well stay drier than normal over summer.

That only makes sense if you know what normal is - what is it?

Principal Scientist for Climate Variability and Change at Niwa, Dr James Renwick, says "normal conditions" for climate scientists have a very specific meaning - close to the average over the past 30 years of the climate in a particular place.

In the greater Auckland city region, for example, total rainfall averages around 230mm in summer. Rainfalls within about 20 per cent either side of that are in the normal range. Average summer daytime maximum temperatures are around 23C and overnight lows about 15C. Temperature within about 0.3 degrees of the average are in the normal range. Last summer, for example, Auckland's mean temperature of 19.9C was above normal, at plus 0.7C. In Christchurch summer rainfall of 130mm or so, and temperatures of between 12C and 22C are typical. Last summer Christchurch's mean of 16.9C was plus 0.3C making it just above average. Rainfall of 188mm however, was 144 per cent of normal - well above normal.

So in Auckland, for example, we can expect it to be warm like last summer, but unlike last summer which was quite dry, it's going to be normal rainfall, which means quite wet - right?

"When we say temperatures are likely to be above normal, what that means is likely," says Renwick. "You cannot make a categorical seasonal forecast because of all the chaotic effects. You can say things are tending in a certain direction, but you can never rule out rogue events - things diverging from the average picture predicted by the computer models." Weather ambassador McDavitt is more succinct: "A forecast is a forecast is a forecast - end of argument.

What then, can you predict?

"A fair fraction of the variation in the climate is unpredictable because of chaos effects, so you can't predict the day-to-day sequence of the weather more than a week or ten days in advance," says Renwick.

"So you have to approach the whole thing probablistically. When computer models with all the physics in them are run, they are run many times from slightly different starting conditions. You just tweak the inputs - employing the whole idea of chaos theory, then average to smooth out the chaotic part."

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What does chaos theory have to do with it?

Renwick is talking about "the butterfly effect" - the idea that some physical processes such as the weather or the climate system are very sensitive to subtle changes. Blame Edward Lorenz, who, in 1961, had created an early computer program to simulate weather. One day he changed one of a dozen numbers representing atmospheric conditions, from 0.506127 to 0.506. The tiny alteration utterly transformed his long- term forecast, a point Lorenz amplified in his 1972 paper, Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set off a Tornado in Texas?

"Tiny little changes in the state of the weather now can lead to huge differences to what the weather does in three or four days," says Renwick.

"The chaos is caused by everyday life - the hubbub of background change," says McDavitt. "Two cars passing each other on the motorway create a little whirlwind of air - a mini vortex. Most of the time it just fades away as noise does. But sometimes the atmosphere is in feedback mode. It will take any small thing and feed on it and create something bigger. You only need to light up a cigarette or close a door and you've jiggled the pattern - you've taken it on a new path."

So you can light a fag and change the weather. Do forecasters really believe this stuff?

Claiming a butterfly's wings can cause a storm, is another way of saying we simply don't know what caused the storm. Nor can we possibly know all the slight connections between small events and big effects. But forecasters do incorporate the notion of chaos effects into their computer modelling.

A number of forecasting centres around the world run dynamical climate models - essentially a big computer crunching measures of circulation of the atmosphere and the oceans, winds, temperature and rainfall - collected in real time. Using laws of physics, the models are run forward again and again with tiny changes to the starting conditions - such as changing a temperature input by a quarter of a degree. Little by little a consensus about likely outcomes is built.

The other approach is to use statistical relationships and correlations between what the oceans and atmosphere are now and and how they have behaved in other years. While it sounds as though the dynamic models - using all the correct physics - should be more accurate, Renwick says sometimes for seasonal outlooks, statistical forecasts do just as well. Why? Because of chaos theory and the inherent unpredictability of weather.

Which is why, I guess, that forecasters get it wrong sometimes?

"By far the majority of the time the MetService gets it right," says Public Weather Services manager Peter Kreft. "Certainly often enough to make a valuable contribution to the safety of life and property in New Zealand landmass."

To get the weather forecast right, forecasters first have to predict the future state of the atmosphere - where the highs and lows will be tomorrow or the next day, their shape and intensity, and how fast, and in what direction, they will move. "Weather modelling is quite good, but not perfect, at answering these sorts of questions," says Kreft.

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But having the atmosphere sorted still doesn't guarantee that the forecast will be accurate. As Kreft points out, people don't really care about the future state of the atmosphere, they want to know what the weather is going to be like at their place.

Which is where it gets tricky - because there are so many variables including New Zealand's varied geography. In certain air streams, for example, a 5-10 degree change in direction may be enough to turn showers/cloud/etc on or off. Or a front may move a little faster than predicted, so that rain forecast for tomorrow morning may fall in the night hours before dawn. Or there may be a situation where all the ingredients for thunderstorms are present, but there is no "push" to get them started. Without a trigger nothing, not even a teeny bit of cloud, may develop.

What happens when severe weather warnings don't happen?MetService measures its success in severe weather warnings with two ratios - Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR). Such warnings are issued for events expected to occur over an area of 1000 square kilometres or more - which at about 32km by 32km square isn't that big.

The POD for heavy rain in 2008 was 95 per cent. Translation: of all the heavy rainfall events of 1000 square kilometres or more which occurred, 95 per cent of them were correctly forecast and the remaining 5 per cent were not forecast. The FAR for heavy rain in 2008 was 27 per cent. Translation: of all the heavy rainfall events of 1000 square kilometres or more which were forecast, 27 per cent of those forecasts were incorrect.

But as Kreft points out, such "cry wolf" measures are based on strict criteria. "The commonest cause of false alarms for heavy rainfall, for example, is insufficient quantity (maybe 75mm instead of 150mm), not no rain."

But severe weather warnings do sometimes cause problems. In October Far North Mayor Wayne Brown demanded an apology from MetService for a weather forecast he claims drove Labour Weekend visitors away and cost the region dearly. Kreft says the Thursday evening before Labour Weekend MetService put out a minimal severe weather warning for eastern parts of northland for Friday only. "It didn't rain as much as we expected and the whole thing was over on the Friday - there was never at any time a warning that was issued that was applicable to Labour Weekend."

What are the oceans and atmosphere telling us right now?

"It's neutral," says Renwick. "The oceans aren't doing anything in the tropical Pacific. Sea temperatures are close to their long-term average." These are measured all over the world by satellites and other sensors including Argo, a global array of more than 3000 free-drifting profiling floats. "The ocean holds hugely more heat than the atmosphere and evolves more slowly - that's where most of the memory of the climate system resides."

But though the oceans are remembering to be normal, the atmosphere is not. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), calculated from the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, is reading +1.

That means strong Pacific trade winds - which is what happens in La Nina conditions when there is extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The opposite, El Nino, is when there's extensive warming of the central and eastern Pacific and a negative SOI.

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Both these weather patterns, which start in the tropics and ripple out to the higher latitudes, have a profound effect on what weather we get in New Zealand. But this year, we have neither La Nina nor El Nino. We have an ocean that isn't warming up or cooling down and an atmosphere above +1. At the moment, things are out of synch.

"The atmosphere is still thinking there is a La Nina going on - the trade winds are still stronger than normal," says Renwick. "It's quite unusual for there to be something happening in the atmosphere and not something happening in the ocean - we're not in a textbook situation."

This is because El Nino and La Nina cycles are what are known as coupled oscillations - the ocean and atmosphere talk to each other. "The reason the sea temperatures change is because the trade winds change, and the trade winds change because the sea temperatures change - it's a chicken and egg thing."

So what's it going to be - neutral or weak La Nina conditions?"Officially everybody is saying we're in a neutral state, because the ocean is neutral or near its long-term average," says Renwick. "But we are aware the atmosphere isn't quite playing the game. The indication is the situation in the atmosphere will ease back to neutral over the summer."

Because the situation is unusual Renwick says there is more reliance on dynamic rather than statistical models. "There is a chance the atmospheric circulation difference from normal will actually convince the oceans to play along and the ocean will actually start to cool in the Eastern Pacific." But only a handful of the models are suggesting the oceans might cool. Most say the wannabe La Nina atmosphere is going to fizzle out to neutral.

What sort of summer do we get with neutral conditions?

Bob McDavitt suggests we're in for a summer of jazz. It's a complicated musical analogy. When La Nina is to the fore in the orchestra of weather, it's all slower tunes and stringed instruments, apparently the sound of the hot dry anticyclones of last summer. When El Nino is in charge, expect strident marching sounds from the brass section - just like the noise that cold outbreak in mid-November made when it brought snow and hail to the country. But with neither La Nina nor El Nino you get, well..., "weather jazz" - with each instrument in succession playing a solo piece. In other words, a mixed bag. It sounds frustrating. "It's not - jazz is quite good. It's very satisfying - everyone gets their own due," says McDavitt. "If you take 10 days off for your holiday I can pretty well guarantee 50 per cent of it will be affected by easterly type conditions and 50 per cent by westerlies." With not as many hot, dry days, farmers should be happier, not to mention the rural fire authority.

Neutral conditions also provide more latitude for the path anticyclones track across New Zealand - a zone moulded by the subtropic ridge which divides the trade winds to the north from the Roaring 40s to the south. Watch out, says McDavitt, for any weather map that shows an anticyclone over the Chatham Islands and a low pressure system to the north - a recipe in northeastern districts for a period of vigorous easterly winds with driving rain. "It's the sort of thing we will issue heavy rain warnings for, but it's not something you need to cancel your holiday plans on, or even change your holiday plans, because it is only going to last 24-48 hours."

If short bursts of heavy rain are on the menu - the kind of rain that will cause temporary evacuation of some camping grounds - what else can weather users do to see it coming?

"Radar allows you to see things you cannot see any other way, and therefore allows you to forecast things you previously couldn't forecast," says Kreft. "The ideal would be to have all of New Zealand within about 180km of weather radar."

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Radar is the secret weapon in the arsenal of the Meteorological Service. There are now five around the country - the newest at New Plymouth - and four more planned over the next few years. What radar sees is gathering precipitation on the edge of the horizon. And, from the echo it receives, whether it's rain, hail or snow, its intensity and how fast it's moving. "It equips us so much better to observe, and then forecast small-scale weather phenomena, particularly those that are severe," says Kreft.

The only problem with radar is that the warnings it can give are only a few hours in advance. At the moment the MetService provides a severe weather warning service for broad-scale weather that covers all of New Zealand. By the middle of next year it plans to have severe thunderstorm warnings - sent out to emergency managers by cellphone or pager - for those areas which are within radar coverage. Meanwhile, weather users can check Severe Thunderstorm Outlook and Watch online (www.metservice.com). And, if they're in range, for the latest sweep of the radar.

What about tropical cyclones - more or fewer in neutral conditions?

"Our records going back 40 years show the El Nino/La Nina cycle does affect whereabouts tropical cyclones form and how many you tend to have in a given season," says Renwick.

"To affect New Zealand, one has to come out of the tropics in the right place and go through an ex-tropical transition - so it has to become like a regular storm that would cross the country. It's quite a rare event and relatively unpredictable."

According to the statistics, in the long term average, in four out of five summers, one tropical cyclone comes out of the tropics and gets close enough to New Zealand to be an issue.

McDavitt notes that 12 years out of the past 40 years of records were neutral years. And comparing the three types of conditions - El Nino, La Nina and Neutral - the greatest likelihood of cyclone coming towards New Zealand is in the neutral bracket. "The probability of a cyclone moving out of the tropics and affecting New Zealand this coming summer is slightly above normal."

McDavitt makes the observation, too, that it was in previous neutral years that we got the big ones - cyclone Giselle which coincided with the Wahine disaster in April 1968; and cyclone Bola which struck Hawke's Bay and Gisborne/East Cape in March 1988.

Coincidence? Maybe.

Traffic builds up as holidays loom

6:19PM Wednesday December 24, 2008

Roads around the country have been busy as people rushed to do last-minute shopping and holiday goers made their way to their Christmas destinations.

Police dealt with many minor crashes as well as attending a fatal Christmas Eve collision in rural Waikato where one person died after two cars collided at Whakamaru.

Police are warning about slippery roads and flooding around New Zealand after heavy rain overnight Tuesday. In Wellington, police warned that rain had made roads very slippery, especially on the windy Rimutaka Hill Road.

There has been some flooding in the Karangahake Gorge, between Paeroa and Waihi, with one lane closed.

Sun set to stick around till New Year

The Dominion Post | Friday, 26 December 2008

ROSS GIBLIN/Dominion Post

CITY BY THE SEA: Enjoying Christmas Day in the sun at Wellington's Scorching Bay are Holly and Isabel Watson.  Balmy weather looks set to continue today and into the new year.

The sun came out and Wellingtonians flocked to the beach to enjoy the warm Christmas weather.

Most of the North Island enjoyed fine weather yesterday, with temperatures ranging from 19 degrees celsius through to the low 20s, MetService said.

Winter storms create $300m insurance bill

Dec 27, 2008 By Alanah May Eriksen Herald on Sunday

Slips caused major damage at Kawakawa Bay. Photo / Glenn Jeffrey

Raging winter storms that plagued the country, causing more than 200 slips in Auckland, cost insurance companies $300 million in claims this year - $50 million more than 2007.

Brutal weather was blamed for the loss of at least four lives, towns were cut off as roads flooded and tens of thousands of households were left without power.

Hundreds of people had minutes to gather important possessions before evacuating their homes.

Several Aucklanders have had their houses condemned by the Earthquake Commission or, four months later, are still waiting to hear if they can return home.

Several people were unable to make claims for weeks due to power and telephone outages, but Insurance Council chief executive Chris Ryan said more than $70 million had been paid out as a result of North Island storms in July and August.

The biggest storms lashed the middle of the island on July 26 and 27, costing $26 million, and on July 30, 31 and August 1, costing $42 million.

The scale of claims made ranged from reparation for buildings that had been wiped out, to money for small earthquake-caused cracks in houses.

A hailstorm in the North Canterbury and Marlborough areas on August 26 saw $5 million worth of insurance claims and the Hastings earthquake on August 25, which had a 5.9 magnitude, cost $1.5 million.

More than $300 million worth of weather-related insurance claims were made this year compared with $250 million in 2007. This is a steady rise from previous years but was not as large as 2004 when a single storm in February in the Manawatu saw $130 million in claims. The widespread rain dump of more than 280mm was the region's worst recorded and drove more than 1000 people from their homes.

The country had also been spared floods as large as the Far North deluges in February and March last year which spurred evacuations, swept away buildings, trapped residents, closed roads and cut power, costing insurers $12.5 million.

The impact of climate change is affecting all New Zealanders and it will continue to do so

That was a hot one!

By AMY MILNE - The Southland Times | Tuesday, 30 December 2008

BARRY HARCOURT/ID 135187

TEMPERATURE TRANSITION: Kristen Froude, 14, of Invercargill on her way to a dunking in Lake Te Anau after some assistance from Doug Hall, also of Invercargill. The pontoon at the bathing beach is proving a popular place to cool off these holidays.

Soaring temperatures throughout the south are not expected to extend to New Year's Eve, according to the MetService. MetService forecaster Allister Gorman said people could expect a change today as a front would be passing over the lower South Island, bringing slightly cooler temperatures sad for some but a relief for others. (abridged)

Warm and wet for Hogmanay

Dec 30, 2008 By Yvonne Tahana NZ Herald

New Year's Eve is looking wet across the North Island. Photo / Alan Gibson

Showers will welcome in 2009.

MetService forecaster Allister Gorman says that although he doesn't want to rain on anyone's parade for New Year's Eve, it is looking wet across the North Island.

Fronts moving east from the Tasman Sea are bringing the bad weather, he says.

"Unfortunately, it will probably start the day quite nice but deteriorate towards midnight, with showers moving into many of the western areas.

"It'll be good for a pre-evening celebration barbecue - but if you're heading out at night to watch fireworks or whatever else is going on, you'll find you'll need to pack the umbrella.

"It won't be cold."

New Year's Day, though, is shaping up to be fine and sunny, says Mr Gorman.

"If it was any other day of the year, people would probably be quite happy if it rained during the night and was fine during the day."

Met Society Newsletter

NOVEMBER WEATHER CLIPPINGS

For a printable pdf of this newsletter : http://metsoc.rsnz.org/Newsletter/clipsnov2008.pdf 

MetService shrugs off Far North mayor's icy blast

Saturday Nov 01, 2008 By Angela Gregory NZ Herald

Wayne Brown. Photo / Northern Advocate

Each year the MetService aims to detect and warn of at least 75 per cent of all significant wind, rain or snow events.

And each year it outdoes itself, says weather ambassador Bob McDavitt.

This week the weather forecast service came in for a blasting from Far North Mayor Wayne Brown, who blamed it and television news for thousands of holiday cancellations in Northland over Labour weekend.

Mr Brown was scathing of television reports of a "Noah-like storm" that he said were based on MetService information. He demanded an apology from the service, which he argued was ultimately responsible for the negative predictions.

The MetService has denied any wrongdoing, saying its weather warning played down the significance of any wild weekend weather.

Mr McDavitt said yesterday that MetService records showed it was well exceeding its targets for detecting 75 per cent of heavy rain, snow or wind events. In the 12 months to June it had detected 95 per cent of heavy rain events, 87 per cent of severe snow and 94 per cent of severe gales.

Mr McDavitt said the service was also beating other targets, including that no more than 40 per cent of its warnings turned out to be false alarms. There were just 27 per cent false alarms for heavy rain, 29 per cent for heavy snow and 20 per cent for severe gales. "We are doing okay but we want to do better."

Mr McDavitt said the MetService was therefore changing its targets with an aim to achieve in the next four years a minimum 95 per cent prediction of severe rain warnings.

Philip Duncan, head weather analyst at Weather Watch, said he generally found the MetService to be accurate. He said there had been some heavy localised downpours in Northland over Labour weekend but a lot of the rain had fallen out to sea.

Ozone hole the size of North America

 Wednesday Nov 05, 2008 NZ Herald By Angela Gregory

The blue and purple colours represent the area with the least ozone. Photo / NASA

The Antarctic ozone hole grew to the size of North America in September, the fifth largest recorded in nearly 30 years.

The information released yesterday by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the ozone hole fluctuated in response to temperature and sunlight.

It had grown to the size of North America in a one-day maximum in September, making it the fifth largest since NOAA satellite records began in 1979.

The primary cause of the ozone hole was human-produced compounds called chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which released ozone-destroying chlorine and bromine into the atmosphere.

Earth's protective ozone layer acted like a giant umbrella, blocking the sun's ultraviolet-B rays. Though banned for the past 21 years to reduce their harmful build-up, CFCs still took many decades to dissipate.

The NOAA scientists found that colder than average temperatures in the stratosphere played a part in allowing the ozone hole to develop more fully this year.

Nasa satellites measured the maximum area of this year's ozone hole at 27.2 million sq km and 6.4 km deep on September 12.

Bryan Johnson, a scientist at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, which monitors ozone, ozone-depleting chemicals and greenhouse gases around the globe, said weather was the most important factor in the fluctuation of the size of the hole from year to year.

"How cold the stratosphere is and what the winds do determine how powerfully the chemicals can perform their dirty work."

Greg Bodeker, Niwa principal scientist, told the Herald the ozone hole was shrinking, but very slowly. He said the chemicals that mostly depleted ozone, chlorine and bromine, were decreasing at about 1 per cent a year but there were annual variations.

Dr Bodeker said it was estimated that ozone would return to 1980 levels in the next 60 to 70 years. Increases in greenhouse gases had contributed to the problem as they trapped infra-red radiation which warmed up the lower atmosphere, or troposphere, up to 15km altitude.

The upper atmosphere, or stratosphere, became cooler as a result, which promoted Antarctic ozone depletion and delayed the recovery of the ozone hole.

Caution urged on South Island roads

Nov 5, 2008  TVNZ

South Islanders have woken to some unlikely spring weather with snow falling for the first time in years in downtown Invercargill.

Snow fell in Invercargill right down to sea level, covering the city with one to two centimetres of powder.

MetService says it's unusual for this time of the year.

Snow's also fallen in Southland through to Southern Otago and Dunedin.

Weather Forecaster Leigh Matheson says motorists should expect snow on roads.

Matheson says the snow is a result of a cold snap and it will continue through the day.

Motorists in the southern South Island are being warned to drive with caution following a dumping of snow.

The Manawatu Gorge also remains closed on Wednesday after a large slip closed both lanes of State Highway 3.

Snow to make way for fine, frosty Election Day

The Press | Friday, 07 November 2008  The Press

David Hallett

Snowvember: Unseasonable weather brought snow overnight to the Port Hills.

Snow is falling in parts of Canterbury this morning but meteorologists are predicting fine, sunny conditions for election day.

Metservice weather ambassador Bob McDavitt says there will be a frosty start to the day for many South Island and central North Island areas.

"Temperatures on Saturday will still be somewhat on the cool side of average. Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin are forecast to reach a mere 12 degrees and Auckland 17.

Over 100 lightning strikes in hour

PAUL EASTON and BRITTON BROUN - The Dominion Post | Fri, 07 November 2008

MATT VELDE

WHITE ROAD: Hail on the Wellington motorway this afternoon as storm hits.

Surface flooding has been reported between Tawa and Porirua following a sudden storm, which broke hit Wellington, Marlborough and Wairarapa and included more than 100 lightning strikes in hour.  Metservice spokesman Andy Downs said hail had fallen around Wellington, including the suburbs of Johnsonville and Karori. More than 100 lightning strikes had been recorded around Wellington, Marlborough and Wairarapa between 2pm to 3pm.

Canterbury vintners on edge

Nov 7, 2008  TVNZ

The next few mornings will have vintners on edge as they anticipate frosty starts.

MetService is forecasting a fine but frosty start around Canterbury at least Saturday morning and maybe on Sunday as well.

Pools take a pounding as heat of summer hits SC

South Canterbury | Monday, 17 November 2008 Timaru Herald

NATASHA MARTIN/Timaru Herald

COOL TIME: The Caroline Bay paddling pool was the perfect place to cool off yesterday. Enjoying a splash are, from left: Jorja Peterson, Georgia McLean, Tylah and Maison Laplanche.

SUMMER arrived. South Canterbury sweltered.

Yes, the MetService had predicted high 20s for Saturday, and yes, they delivered - all 31C.

There was no need to tell South Cantabrians that summer had arrived just in time for the annual Geraldine Arts and Plants Festival, summer sports and social events.

The maximum temperature recorded at the Timaru Airport on Saturday was 31C, the warmest temperature recorded this month.

It wasn't just Timaru that was in the heat on Saturday. The Shell service station at Twizel recorded a temperature of 27C on Saturday, while yesterday by 1.30pm it had reached 20C. Cashier Grace Butler said there was a record number of people pumping petrol into their boats to enjoy a day out on the water.

Hailstorm causes severe, expensive damage in Ashburton

Walnut-sized hailstones

Tue, 18 Nov 2008    3News

Walnut-sized hailstones have pounded Ashburton causing millions of dollars worth of damage.

The hailstorm only lasted five minutes, but it will take lettuce grower Rodger Withell months to recover.

While his glass houses are wrecked and his produce has been showered in debris, it is the noise from yesterday's storm that sticks in his mind.

“It just sounded like bullets going off. You couldn't hear. It was just that noisy it was like bullets going off,” explains Mr Withell. “The hailstones were about as big as good 50 cent pieces.”

Within hours half a dozen clips of the storm had been posted on YouTube.

For Ashburton's gardeners it has been a difficult spring.

“Last week the town suffered from a severe frost that damaged nurseries and vegetable crops,” says Laura Bootham. “What the frost didn't destroy, yesterday's hail finished off.”

For commercial growers the storm came at a cost as damaged produce will need to be thrown out.

“You can't eat glass with lettuce,” explains Mr Withell.

Experts say hailstorms usually hit in December, but they were surprised at the damage this one did.

“There's not many times when hailstorms in New Zealand cause significant damage to cars for instance by denting them,” states Blue Skies Weather Forecaster Tony Trewinnard.

Local panel beaters seem to have benefited from the weather event.

Aden Pulham has secured an extra 18 months work repairing more than $1 million worth of damage.“I got here early this morning and the first customer was already waiting pretty much and the phone hasn't stopped ringing,” says Mr Pulham.

Tornado hits farm 

Mark Story  Hawke’s Bay Today  18.11.2008

Senior Constable Alan Daly Dexter McGhie examine the vine netting.

Haumoana farmer Dexter McGhie now intends to make hay only when the sun shines.

Struggling to get his hay crop in during yesterday's mid-afternoon rain, the part-time secondary school teacher grabbed his dog and jumped into a ditch to avoid a "mini tornado" heading in his direction.

Minutes earlier, working in a paddock on his Tukituki Road property, Mr McGhie noticed a sudden drop in temperature.

"There was this weird cooling sensation, and next thing you know this vortex full of hay and dirt was headed my way," he said.

"It was like something off TV, and really scary when you know the potential of these things.

I wanted nothing to do with it, so I moved pretty quickly."

Seventy-five metres of bird netting fell from the sky as the vortex changed its northerly direction and headed south towards Haumoana.

"Two or three guys couldn't lift this netting, so it shows what sort of power we're talking about," Mr McGhie said.

"I don't know of any netting used near this property, so I'm guessing it could have come all the way from the other side of the river. This would have to rate as the most unusual event of my life."

Neighbour Mark Johnson also witnessed the phenomenon, which he said flew slowly over his house. "With the netting inside it, it looked like a big swirling spider web. It was huge, very impressive."

Metservice forecaster Ian Miller said the reports were surprising, given tornadoes were typically associated with thunder and lighting.

"Yet they're (tornadoes) not always the result of stormy weather. In this case, it's more likely it was caused by strong winds flying over rugged terrain, which can often give rise to these eddies.

"Essentially we're talking about turbulence on a big scale."

Takaka hit by worst flooding in 20 years

By STAFF REPORTERS - Nelson | Wednesday, 26 November 2008

HAYLEY GALE/Nelson Mail

WATER WORLD: Commercial St, Takaka, seen when the flood was around its peak, at about 8pm on Monday.

MARION VAN DIJK/Nelson Mail

SLIP-SLIDING: Adela Knottenbelt, 17, left and Jess Bygate, 16, both of Nelson, had fun in a puddle at the Maitai Cricket Ground.

Mopping up began Tuesday morning after what is described as the worst flood to hit Takaka since 1986.

In Nelson, a timely break in the weather saved the city from major flooding during Monday's downpour.

As the flood peaked in Takaka at 7.30 Monday night, water poured down Commercial St, which had been closed to traffic, and seeped into low-lying shops. Some shopkeepers placed sandbags around the doors to try to prevent floodwaters going inside.

Takaka was cut off from 4.45pm with both State Highway 60 in the Takaka Valley and Waitapu Bridge towards Collingwood closed by heavy flooding.

Schools in Takaka closed early on Monday to enable children in the worst-affected areas to return home safely.

Council hydrologist Matt McLarin said 300 millimetres of rain fell in the Anatoki high country within 24 hours from 6pm on Sunday to 6pm Monday. At Kotinga, just above Takaka, 200mm of rain fell in the same 24-hour period.

The Takaka River has a base flow rate of around 20 cubic metres per second at Kotinga bridge, but when the flood peaked, the flow rate reached 1500 cumecs, he said.

One of Nelson's main weather monitoring sites in Stoke received about 90mm of rain during the past three days. The average rainfall for November is about 79mm.

Forecasting advance tipped as lifesaver

By PAUL GORMAN - The Press | Friday, 21 November 2008

Millions of lives could be saved from natural disasters around the world by the biggest revolution in weather forecasting since the introduction of computers.

Weather forecasters from all corners of the globe, including New Zealand, are joining forces to push back the prediction limits of severe weather such as tropical cyclones, thunderstorms and tornadoes, torrential rain, heatwaves and heavy snow.

Extreme weather cannot be forecast accurately beyond two or three days at present but the 10-year Thorpex (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) study is effectively thumbing its nose at that.

Its aim is to develop a system that will give extended-range warnings up to two weeks ahead, providing more time for communities and governments to prepare for life-threatening events.

A giant "ensemble" computer model is being developed that will combine all the best points of dozens of models used in everyday weather forecasting and, hopefully, increase the accuracy of predictions.

Thorpex Southern Hemisphere regional co-chairman Neil Gordon, of MetService, told this week's joint Meteorological Society of New Zealand and New Zealand Hydrological Society conference that New Zealand had an important role to play in the programme.

This was due to its expertise on the region's complex, chaotic weather systems and of Antarctic weather patterns.

"This will lead to a fundamental change in the way forecasting is done around the world."

Thorpex was focused on providing the best weather warnings to lessen the loss of life and property.

Gordon told The Press weather was a mixture of predictability and chaos, which meant that beyond a certain period it was almost impossible to know what the atmosphere would do.

However, Thorpex was breaking new ground.

"We are pushing back the bounds of chaos.

"We are learning more and more how to exploit chaos, in the sense that it is not completely chaotic and there are probabilities we can use. But there's a limit to how far we can do that."

The hope was the new forecast system would be specific enough to enable environmental-hazard predictions to be made, such as where landslips might occur after heavy rain, Gordon said.

Severe weather predictions of the future would likely involve probabilities, stating there was, for example, a 20 per cent chance something would happen.

Rain is pennies from heaven

By WAYNE MARTIN - Nelson | Thursday, 27 November 2008 The Nelson Mail

COLIN SMITH

GREEN FINGERS: Greenacres Golf Club course superintendent Craig Westley, left, and head greenkeeper Nick Van Leeuwen.

Nelson's unseasonably wet spring has meant utter frustration for most casual club golfers.

But for Greenacres Golf Club course superintendent Craig Westley, head greenkeeper Nick Van Leeuwen and his apprentice Hamish Campbell, the ever-present rain has been like liquid gold as they continue their final preparations for next week's Toro men's interprovincial golf tournament.

"The weather's been brilliant; we couldn't have asked for anything better," said Westley.

Floods won't keep boy from mum

Maike van der Heide - The Marlborough Express | Wednesday, 26 November 2008

CHRISTINE CORNEGE/The Marlborough Express

SWIMMING FOR MUM: Canvastown youngster James Hodgson, 10, swam through floodwaters to reach his Mother, Mary, after she became stuck on Wakamarina Road which was swamped by the river on Monday night.

A pyjama-clad 10-year-old swam through rising floodwaters to be with his mother who was trapped in her car on a flooded Canvastown road on Monday night.

Torrential rain had caused the Wakamarina River to break its banks and spill over the lower Wakamarina Rd and surrounding properties.

James Hodgson was at home when his mother Mary called from her cellphone to say she was trapped in the rising water near their home.

James and his father Mark drove to her in their four-wheel-drive but by then the water was too deep to drive into.

James said he argued with his father about what to do, but he wanted to be with his mother. He waded in, then swam to his mother's side. Although he was not afraid, James said the current was quite strong where bushes did not block the flow.

The pair were rescued a short time later by a friend in a larger vehicle.

Wakamarina Rd farmer Tony Mathews, who was yesterday clearing fallen tree branches from Wakamarina Rd, said his Niwa rain gage showed 117.5mm of rain fell in the 24 hours from 9am Monday. The day before, just 40mm fell.

Winds play havoc with Cape pointers

Thursday Nov 27, 2008 NZ Herald / Northern Advocate

DoC says aluminium signs had struggled to withstand the strong winds over the year. Photo / Northern Advocate

A famous signpost at Cape Reinga is due for a makeover after all 10 signs pointing to cities around the world were ripped off by high winds.

The signpost, next to the lighthouse, stands bare after Department of Conservation staff say wild weather throughout this year stripped the attraction of its famous pointers.

DOC visitor asset manager William Macrae said the aluminium signs had struggled to withstand the strong winds over the year and, due to metal fatigue, had been torn off in blustery gales.

"It's a tough environment up there and is subjected to sand blasts, strong winds and sea salt. The wind is so bad some days you have to be there to believe it."

Niwa records show the strongest wind gust at Cape Reinga in the past 12 months was 174km/h on July 26, from the southwest.

MetService warns UV levels up already

Thu, 02 Oct 2008 1:54p.m.  3 News /NZPA

As the country heads into summer and the holiday season people will now be able to check the Ultra Violet (UV) level of the sun on the MetService website.

MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said information would be available for 42 places around the country.

A UV reading of six or more for longer than 30 minutes will result in sunburn, Mr McDavitt said.

"UV levels are rising faster than the temperature. These (burning) levels are already happening. But with the recent swing back to cool temperatures, along with cloudy and windy days, people may not be feeling the warmth that normally accompanies sunlight. This is especially so on the ski fields where UV is higher and there is more reflected light."

Mr McDavitt said the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica was bigger this year which would mean higher than normal UV levels.

Region takes pounding

TRACEY CHATTERTON – Timaru Herald | Monday, 06 October 2008

MetService warns UV levels up already

Thu, 02 Oct 2008 1:54p.m.  3 News /NZPA

As the country heads into summer and the holiday season people will now be able to check the Ultra Violet (UV) level of the sun on the MetService website.

MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said information would be available for 42 places around the country.

A UV reading of six or more for longer than 30 minutes will result in sunburn, Mr McDavitt said.

"UV levels are rising faster than the temperature. These (burning) levels are already happening. But with the recent swing back to cool temperatures, along with cloudy and windy days, people may not be feeling the warmth that normally accompanies sunlight. This is especially so on the ski fields where UV is higher and there is more reflected light."

Mr McDavitt said the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica was bigger this year which would mean higher than normal UV levels.

Region takes pounding

TRACEY CHATTERTON – Timaru Herald | Monday, 06 October 2008

THIS IS YOUR OFFICIAL NOTICE OF

THE 29th ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING

OF MET SOCIETY

TO BE HELD IN THE EVENING

OF TUESDAY 18 NOVEMBER 2008

As part of the joint

Met Soc/Hydro Soc Annual

Conference At

Shantytown/ Greymounth, Westland.

All financial members are invited to attend  or send in an apology to bobmcd@... .

If you wish to raise an item for the agenda or to nominate a fellow financial member for a position on the committee then please let one of the committee know beforehand .

A copy of the Society’s annual accounts follows: 

News Email from Met Soc

printable pdf file is at http://metsoc.rsnz.org/Newsletter/clipsep2008.pdf

'Record-breaking' wild weather for South Island

By MICHAEL FORBES - The Press | Monday, 01 September 2008

A record high-pressure system is expected to drop more rain on parts of the South Island, over the next three days, than Hurricane Gustav will on New Orleans, according to the MetService.

In a weather warning issued at 8:59am this morning, the MetService is predicting a weather front to stall over Fiordland and South Westland which could bring in excess of 500mm of rain to the Westland Ranges and Southern Alps.

That would exceed the 200mm Hurricane Gustav is expected to dump on parts on the United States when it hits, according to MetService Weather ambassador Bob McDavitt.

"The difference is, Fiordland is used to this much rain but New Orleans ain't," he said.

The wild weather is the result of a record-breaking, 1040HP high-pressure system, which McDavitt said is a first for New Zealand

"It's breaking all records, we've never seen a high this big over the country before.

"We haven't got any explanation as to why this high-pressure is so high."

Strong winds are also expected to batter the South Island, with gusts up to 140kmh predicted for inland and exposed parts of Southland, Otago, and Canterbury this afternoon, easing later tonight.

McDavitt said the winds would be strong enough to remove insecure objects and cause damage to tress and power lines.

The rain is expected to become heavy for Fiordland after about midday today, with 100 to 120mm predicted to fall in the next 24 hours.

The same amount of rain is also expected to fall in the headwaters of Otago and Canterbury from 6pm tonight until midnight Tuesday.

Lakes look to weather bomb for big boost

Tuesday September 02, 2008 By Jarrod Booker, NZ Herald

Lake Pukaki North of Twizel is one of the major Hydro lakes.

Records are under threat in a clash of weather systems expected to provide a desperately needed boost to dwindling hydro lakes.

A high pressure system to rival the most intense ever recorded in New Zealand is hovering over the South Island, blocking an active front that may drop about 500mm of rain before easing tomorrow - more than twice the rainfall expected from Hurricane Gustav in parts of the United States.

With the southern hydro lakes so low in the south that some may be lowered below minimum operating levels, the rain was coming at a crucial time.

MetService severe weather forecaster Erick Brenstrum said the hydro lakes would benefit from the heavy rain spilling over "without a shadow of a doubt".

"It's just a question of how much. I think it is going to be significant."

Hydrologist Dave Stewart said the rain was "extremely timely" with North Island electricity production working "flat out" to send power south. "A large boost will take a hell of a lot of pressure off."

Mr Brenstrum said the high pressure system over the south was expected to have a central pressure of 1049 hectopascals "which is extremely high for this part of the world".

The centre of this system was over the sea, but the highest pressure over land recorded in New Zealand was 1046hp, in the late 1800s. (Abridged)

Christchurch flights delayed by fog

The Press | Wednesday, 10 September 2008

Daniel Tobin

Take-off: A Jetstar flight leaves Christchurch International Airport today. It was one of the few flights that managed to get out as fog disrupted operations.

Thousands of passengers face delays after fog caused disruption at Christchurch International Airport this morning.  At least 25 domestic and international flights were cancelled, delayed or diverted as thick fog made flying conditions at the airport dangerous.

The fog lifted at about 11am and the airlines are working to clear backlogs.

Climate blamed for glaciers' melt

Sep 14, 2008  TVNZ

Global warming is being blamed for New Zealand's disappearing southern glaciers.

National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) scientists have recorded the lowest ice volume for the Southern Alps since records began 32 years ago.

They say the 50 glaciers surveyed have suffered an ice loss more than twice the size of Auckland's Rangitoto Island.

"It means that we're losing our snow and ice resource and of course this is important for tourism and it's also important for water resources that flow into the Southern Lakes," says NIWA Principal Scientist Dr Jim Salinger.

Using a small fixed wing aircraft, NIWA has been recording the height of the snow line at the end of each summer.

Salinger says between April 2007 to March 2008, the Southern Alps glaciers lost 2.2 billion tonnes of permanent ice, the fourth largest annual loss since the study began.

He says the glaciers are showing the lowest ice mass on record.

Salinger blames La Nina conditions over New Zealand, more easterlies and warmer than normal temperatures for the rapid shrink rate of the glaciers. They meant less snowfall in the Southern Alps, and more snowmelt.

Worldwide, glaciers are melting at a rate of half a metre a year.

Heavy snow likely to bolster southern glaciers

Paul Gorman Science reporter - The Press | Monday, 15 September 2008

Alan Wood

RETREATING: Heavy alpine snowfalls in the South Island this winter could temporarily halt or even reverse the continuing decline of glaciers in the Southern Alps.

Heavy alpine snowfalls in the South Island this winter could temporarily halt or even reverse the continuing decline of glaciers in the Southern Alps.

The latest survey by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) draws the gloomy conclusion that the country's glaciers are shrinking at an alarming rate.

The total ice volume of the Southern Alps' glaciers is 44.9 cubic km, the least since the annual survey began 32 years ago. However, the stormy winter means the snowpack in some parts of the Southern Alps is the greatest it has been for about a decade.

Power company Meridian Energy is eagerly awaiting a large spring thaw and the boost it will give to its southern hydro-lakes, which are only just starting to recover from very low levels throughout the winter.  Niwa principal climate scientist Jim Salinger said that extra snow could boost the ice mass quite quickly in some smaller glaciers but would not show up in larger glaciers for years.

"It depends what happens over the summer. We've still got the snow melt to come that's November to February and maybe March. If it's a cold summer, it might halt the decline a little, but the general trend is downward." (Abridged)

Hole in the ozone layer widens in 2008

by Rich Bowden - Sep 18 2008, 23:29  TECH HERALD

Ozone hole in Sept. 2006. Credit: NASA

The hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will be wider in 2008 than reported in 2007, a new U.N. study has said.

The U.N.'s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has advised that the observed changes in the stratospheric measurements will delay the repair of the ozone hole and called on its member states to continue to support observations and prevent further damage.

Speaking at the International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer on September 16, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said it would take many years before the ozone layer fully recovers from damage caused by chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).

“After decades of chemical attack, it may take another 50 years or so for the ozone layer to recover fully. As the Montreal Protocol has taught us, when we degrade our environment too far, nursing it back to health tends to be a long journey, not a quick fix,” he said.

The 1987 Montreal Protocol was signed amongst member nations to phase out substances harmful to the ozone layer. Among these were CFCs and HCFCs (hydrochloroflourocarbons).

According to the most recent measurements taken by the WMO, the ozone hole, though appearing later in the year than usual, will exceed the size reached in 2007 as it reaches its peak towards the end of September and early October.

Using ground observations, measurements from balloons and satellites, and accompanying meteorological information, WMO scientists found that the hole covered an area of 27 million square kilometres on September 13 of this year. The maximum area reached in 2007 was 25 million square kilometres.

The scientists say they are aware of the effect climate change is having on the ozone hole. According to a statement released by the WMO, an excess of greenhouse gases, while causing a warming effect in the troposphere and on the Earth's surface, results in a cooling effect in the stratosphere, accelerating the ozone damage.

"Increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will lead to warmer temperatures in the troposphere and at the Earth’s surface," the statement said.

"In the stratosphere, at altitudes where we find the ozone layer, there will be a cooling effect. A cooling of the stratosphere in winter over the last decades has indeed been observed, both in the Arctic and in the Antarctic. Lower temperatures enhance the chemical reactions that destroy ozone," it added. 

"At the same time, the amount of water vapour in the stratosphere has been increasing at the rate of about one per cent per year. A wetter and colder stratosphere means more polar stratospheric clouds, which is likely to lead to more severe ozone loss in both polar regions."

Antarctica to have biggest ozone hole in ``one or two weeks''

SIFY News Wednesday, 17 September, 2008, 11:55

Toronto: A new Canadian study says that cosmic rays, not chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), are the main cause of the depletion of the ozone layer in the earth's atmosphere. The study also predicts that the largest ozone hole - larger than the size of the US and Canada combined - will occur over Antarctica in ``one or two weeks.''

The ozone layer in the earth's atmosphere absorbs the sun's high-frequency ultraviolet rays which are deadly for life on earth and cause diseases such as skin cancer and cataracts.

Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Waterloo and a specialist in the study of ozone depletion, said on Tuesday that his study belies the two-decade-old theory that the earth's ozone layer is depleted by chlorine atoms produced by sunlight-induced destruction of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere.

On the contrary, he said, more and more evidence points to a new theory that the cosmic rays - energy particles that originate in space - play a major role in the destruction of the ozone layer. Lu said data from several sources, including satellites of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), confirmed a strong link between cosmic ray intensity and ozone depletion.

He said laboratory measurements also demonstrated a mechanism by which cosmic rays cause drastic reactions of ozone-depleting chlorine inside clouds over the South Pole (Antarctica).

Satellite data from 1980 to 2007, covering two full 11-year solar cycles, also demonstrated a significant link between cosmic rays and ozone depletion, he said.

``This finding, combined with laboratory measurements, provides strong evidence of the role of cosmic-ray driven reactions in causing the ozone hole and resolves the mystery why a large discrepancy between the sunlight-related photochemical model and the observed ozone depletion exists,'' said Lu.

Recent experiments by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, which use photochemical models, predict the earth's ozone hole will increase by one to 2.5 per cent and the Antarctic springtime ozone hole by five to 10 per cent between 2000 and 2020.

In sharp contrast, Lu said, his study predicted the severest ozone loss — resulting in the largest ozone hole — over the South Pole (Antarctica) this month.  He also predicted another large ozone hole around 2019.

Maaaaarvelous weather for lambs

By Neal Wallace on Fri, 19 Sep 2008   Otago Daily Times

Telford Rural Polytechnic student Nathan Wedd (left) and farm technician Charles Millward show off some of the lambs at Telford this week.

A wet, cold end to winter caused some grief for dairy farmers, but several weeks of settled, warm weather has coincided with lambing, with farmers reporting a relatively easy and enjoyable start to spring.  There are reports of high lamb survival rates, despite scans revealing varied pregnancy rates after a tough summer and autumn.  (Abridged)

Turoa snow base reaches 5m milestone

Friday, 19 September 2008 STUFF NEWS-NZPA

Another 24 hours of snow falling on the southern slopes of Mt Ruapehu has seen Turoa's snow base reach a record five metres today.

In mid-August, the snow measuring stake at Turoa had to be extended from its previous maximum of 3.8m to allowed continued measurement as the snow kept coming.

The skifield set a record for any ski area in New Zealand when its snow base reached 4.5m.

With the snow stake measuring 4.88m on Monday, Ruapehu Alpine Lifts announced that Turoa would extend its season until November 16.

The Whakapapa side of the mountain currently has a base of 3.77m, the deepest since 1995.

Mt Ruapehu marketing manager Mike Smith said the continuous snowfalls from mid-July to late August had created the record conditions.  (Abridged)

Weather with a jazz beat

Sep 21, 2008  Herald on Sunday  Anna Leask and Anna Rushworth

Forecaster Bob McDavitt

Kiwis can expect a little bit of everything when it comes to the weather this summer. Conditions are usually determined by the dominant weather in spring, but MetService weather ambassador Bob McDavitt said the pattern until November would be neutral, between El Nino and La Nina.

"There will be more variety. Not one weather system - hot or cold - will dominate. They will share it," McDavitt said.

"El Nino and La Nina will take turns taking over the main weather theme. All the weather patterns will dominate - but they are not going to fight over it."

McDavitt compared weather patterns to an orchestra.

When El Nino is the composer, we get "marching music", La Nina is more "more romantic", and a neutral pattern is like jazz - everyone gets a turn being the boss.

During an El Nino pattern New Zealand tends to experience stronger or more frequent winds from the west in summer, typically leading to drought in east coast areas and more rain in the west.  A La Nina summer was usually characterised by more northeasterly winds, which tend to bring rainy conditions to the northeast of the North Island, and reduced rainfall to the south and southwest of the South Island.

"Each pattern will hang on for a week or two, so we'll get hot then cold, wet then dry," said McDavitt. "We'll get a variety of weather but it won't be erratic."

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research senior climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger said the official summer seasonal forecast would be released in November.

"It's too early to predict what that forecast will be but it might be a bit warmer than normal," he said.

Weather Watch analyst Philip Duncan said neutral periods could be hard to forecast and spring was not an indication of what we would get in summer. He said there were further difficulties with predictions because of the range of "micro climates" in New Zealand and its size.

"We are two small islands stuck bang in the middle of the southwest Pacific."

Duncan said that in the short term, the neutral spring would bring more westerly winds, meaning warmer weather for the east coast but cooler spells in the west of the country.

But if the neutral system continued into summer Duncan predicted Auckland, Bay of Plenty and Hamilton would have a wetter, but warmer, summer than the last.

Humidity levels would be high, increasing the chance of more showers.

In Northland there was always the chance of a tropical cyclone brushing the region in cyclone season between November and April, he said.

One weather analyst preferred to use the cycles of the moon rather than satellites for long-range weather predictions. Ken Ring has been using the technique for 35 years and said it gave him an edge over mainstream weather experts.

"We have alternative medicine and alternative music, I like to think this is just alternative weather."

He is predicting a sudden rise in temperature around mid-November before rain in the month's last 10 days.

Ring also predicted heavy rain in the first week of December but mid-December to February would be mainly dry for Northland, Auckland, Canterbury, Hawke's Bay and the Bay of Plenty.

For Christmas Day Ring predicts the best weather in the top half of the North Island and east of the South Island, but says it will be cloudy through inland Otago and Southland.

The hottest places may be Gisborne and Hawke's Bay in the North Island and Canterbury and South Canterbury in the South Island.

Wellington was Ring's pick for the best New Year weather, while Christchurch would be cloudy and Auckland could have rough weather in the Hauraki Gulf.

Weather depresses lamb count

By DIANE BISHOP - The Southland Times | Tuesday, 23 September 2008

ID 130290/DIANE BISHOP

Three's company: A triplet and her lambs.

Southland plains farmers are not expecting to break any lambing records this season.

Those spoken to by The Southland Times reported an average to below-average lambing at the halfway point — the varying results because of different peak lambing dates.

Riverton farmer Leon Black said his lamb deaths had been high, with both newborn and several-day-old lambs succumbing to the ongoing wet conditions. Since heavy rain fell in early September there had been very little drying and many paddocks remained waterlogged.

Central Southland Vets veterinarian Andrew Roe said lamb deaths had been higher than usual because of the wet weather. "A lot of farmers who lamb in early September were caught out by the heavy rain," he said. Federated Farmers Southland meat and fibre chairman Martin Hall, who farms on the coast at Kapuka, and has just started lambing, said plenty of sunshine was needed to improve grass growth.  (Abridged)

Winds thrash the south but little damage

By KYLIE WILSON and BRUCE FRASER - The Southland Times | Wednesday, 24 September 2008

ID 130912/TRACEY McKENZIE

BOUNCING BACK: Strong winds yesterday took off with Tracey McKenzie's family trampoline and left it hanging in the trees at Mimihau in Eastern Southland.

Wild weather continued to batter the southern region yesterday as strong north-west winds swept through Southland but little damage was reported.

The MetService issued a severe weather warning yesterday for inland Southland and Stewart Island as winds were expected to reach 70kmh, with gusts up to 130kmh.  Strong winds had the potential to damage trees and power lines, and could make driving hazardous, particularly for motorcycles and high-sided trucks, it said.  (Abridged)

Sightseers run for lives as side of mountain falls

By MIKE HOULAHAN - The Press | Friday, 26 September 2008

NEW SCAR: An aerial photo looking along the highway towards Milford Sound, where an old slip on Mount Underwood is shown on the left and the new slip on the right.

Wet weather gear and gumboots are not designed for speed but two Milford Sound women ran like Olympic sprinters when they heard several hundred tonnes of mud, rock and foliage roaring towards them.

Iben Hall and Maria Kuster were sightseeing with five other locals on Tuesday afternoon when the group stopped to admire Mount Underwood, site of a big landslide in 1993.

Hall and Kuster lingered to admire the view while their friends drove further down the road.

Soon after they set off to walk after the group a crash warned the women another slide was on its way and it was about to sweep them away with it.

"We were nearly under it," said Kuster, who works at the Milford Sound Observatory.

"There was this massive rumble, and we saw trees heading towards us ... if we hadn't started running we would have been 20m into it. It was quite scary and absolutely amazing to see that close.

"To actually see rock peel off and comprehend what does it is quite amazing. Especially when you think that just a second longer here taking wet weather gear off, or admiring a waterfall, has saved your life.

"I definitely didn't (know I could run that fast), especially in over-sized gumboots.

A kilometre down the road, Hall and Kuster's friends heard the slip and feared the worst.

Carter and four others were trapped in their van on the other side of the slip by the torrent of water slewing across the road.

At the lodge yesterday, Kuster said there had been 90mm of heavy rain in two hours on Tuesday afternoon, which had flushed a lot of the fallen trees and other debris away.

New Zealand Transport Agency spokesman Murray Clarke said the slip had carpeted 200m of the Te Anau-Milford highway. It would take until Sunday, weather permitting, to clear one lane of the road. (Abridged)

South pacific faces 8 to 10 storms this season

By MICHAEL FIELD - Fairfax Media | Friday, 26 September 2008

Climatic conditions this summer give New Zealand an increased risk of being hit by a tropical cyclone, NIWA says in a forecast.

"There is just over a four out of five chance of an ex-tropical cyclone passing within 500 kilometres of the country sometime between November and May, with the highest risk districts being Northland and Gisborne," NIWA says.

"By the time such systems reach New Zealand they are no longer classified as tropical cyclones, but can still cause strong winds and heavy rainfall."

The most common months for ex-tropical cyclones to affect New Zealand are January to March.

New Zealand is at an increased risk because of the neutral El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions.

Across the Pacific the coming tropical cyclone season, from November 2008 - May 2009, will see a normal risk of cyclones.

There is a reduced risk in parts of French Polynesia.

"There is a good chance that the first tropical cyclone of the coming season in the South Pacific region may occur before the end of December, which is normal during neutral seasons."

They expect on average eight to ten cyclones over the entire South Pacific region during a neutral ENSO season.

Peak cyclone occurrence is usually from January to March.

In seasons with similar climate backgrounds, several tropical cyclones usually occur in the region between Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, and Tonga, while a few affect other areas.

In an average season about half of the tropical cyclones that develop reach hurricane force with mean wind speeds of at least 64 knots (118 km/h).

Blossom festival draws thousands

By Rosie Manins on Sat, 27 Sep 2008  Otago Daily Times

Bad weather delayed Alexandra's annual Blossom Festival float parade by an hour today, although thousands of people still managed to brave cold, windy, and wet conditions to watch the procession.

More snow is on the way

Mon, 29 Sep 2008 Otago Daily Times

Sheep straggle through snow-covered paddocks on the Crown Range above Arrowtown on Saturday. Photo by Matthew Haggart.

Residents in the Queenstown Lakes district and Central Otago may want to think twice before packing away their winter woollies, after a snowfall over much of the region on Saturday and with more forecast for tonight.

A MetService weather forecaster said snow fell to about 300m on Saturday morning.

Arrowtown recorded 10cm in places and Jollys Pass, about 20km north of Lumsden on State Highway 6, recorded 15cm.  The MetService said 13cm was recorded at St Bathans and 10cm at Naseby.  (Abridged)

Morning whiteout: frost sends growers scrambling

29.09.2008  JOE DAWSON   Hawke’s Bay Today

The frigid temperatures did not put off these hardy souls training at Hawke's Bay race course.

Vineyard managers will have an anxious wait today until the damage of a heavy overnight frost can be accurately gauged.  Frost-fighting helicopters, wind turbines and sprinklers were in full effect until 8am in places, desperately trying to stir up air that had dropped to below zero degrees.  (Abridged)

Daylight Saving Brings Skin Cancer Warning

29 September, 2008   NZ Herald

New Zealanders are being warned of rapid increases in ultraviolet radiation as people enjoy the longer days of daylight saving.

Dr Richard McKenzie of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) says the switch to daylight saving should remind us that this is a transition period for New Zealand, when the sun is higher in the sky each day.

“It means the sun’s rays have less distance to travel through the atmosphere to reach earth. The shorter the distance the rays have to travel, the less ultraviolet radiation is absorbed by gases in the atmosphere – like ozone – and the more radiation hits earth.”

He says over the last week alone, we have seen ultraviolet radiation rise from six to seven in the north of the country.  With UV rays peaking at over 12 in the summer, people are being urged to protect themselves from the harmful effects of the sun, while still enjoying the outdoors.

Dr McKenzie says that because the sun elevation angle is a strong indicator of UV intensity, an easy way of judging how high the UV radiation is likely to be is by observing the length of your shadow.

“As your shadow gets shorter, you know the UV risk is getting bigger. If your shadow is less than twice the length of your body, there is a risk of damage from UV. At this time of year, your shadow length at midday is about the same length as your body and it will get shorter each day as summer approaches.”

He says the key time for New Zealand is over the December-January period when the sun is high in the sky so the ultraviolet intensity reaches its maximum values. At that time of the year, New Zealand can also be influenced by the break up of the ozone hole in Antarctica.

The precise date of break-up of the Antarctic ozone hole is not yet predictable. But it is usually in the early summer. NIWA provides daily forecasts of UVI to the media via MetService. Forecasts are also available at http://www.niwa.co.nz/services/free/uvozone.  (Abridged)

ENDS