The following article on "The Science of Climate Change" was
published in the Royal Society of New Zealand ALERT dated 10 May 2001

"The Science of Climate Change"
The Royal Society of London recently drafted and circulated this
statement
on Climate Change, which the Royal Society Academy Council has
considered
and endorsed:

The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
represents
the consensus of the international scientific community on climate
change
science. We recognise IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of
information on climate change and its causes, and we endorse its
method of
achieving this consensus. Despite increasing consensus on the science
underpinning predictions of global climate change, doubts have been
expressed recently about the need to mitigate the risks posed by
global
climate change. We do not consider such doubts justified.

There will always be some uncertainty surrounding the prediction of
changes
in such a complex system as the world’s climate. Nevertheless, we
support
the IPCC’s conclusion that it is at least 90% certain that
temperatures
will continue to rise, with average global surface temperature
projected to
increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees centigrade above 1990 levels
by
2100. This increase will be accompanied by rising sea levels, more
intense
precipitation events in some countries, increased risk of drought in
others, and adverse effects on agriculture, health and water balance.

In May 2000, at the Inter Academy Panel (IAP) meeting in Tokyo, 63
academies of science from all parts of the World issued a Statement
on
Transition to sustainable development in which they noted that
“global
trends in climate change … are growing concerns”, and pledged
themselves to
work for sustainability meeting current human needs while preserving
the
environment and natural resources needed by future generations. It is
now
evident that human activities are already contributing adversely to
global
climate change. Business as usual is no longer a viable option.

We urge everyone - individuals, businesses and governments - to take
prompt
action to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. One hundred and
eighty-one
governments are Parties to the 1992 UN Framework Convention on
Climate
Change, demonstrating a global commitment to ‘stabilising atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases at safe levels’. Eighty-four
countries
have signed the subsequent 1997 Kyoto Protocol, committing developed
countries to reducing their annual aggregate emissions by 5.2% from
1990
levels by 2008-2012.

The ratification of this Protocol represents a small but essential
first
step towards stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases. It
will help create a base upon which to build an equitable agreement
between
all countries in the developed and developing world for the more
substantial reductions that will be necessary by the middle of the
century.

There is much that can be done now to reduce the emissions of
greenhouse
gases without excessive cost. We believe that there is also a need
for a
major co-ordinated research effort focussing on the science and
technology
that underpin mitigation and adaptation strategies related to climate
change. This effort should be funded principally by the developed
countries
and should involve scientists from throughout the world.

The balance of the scientific evidence demands effective steps now to
avert
damaging changes to the earth’s climate.