The seminar below should be avery interesting one, with a very knowledgable and
entertaining speaker. It is an open seminar - all Met Society Wellington members
are invited.


Regards,
Jim Renwick
Wellington VP, Met Society of NZ
------- Forwarded message follows -------
From: "Victoria McIntyre" <v.mcintyre@...>
Subject: Seminar - Abrupt climate change: are the pentagon and Hollywood
right?
Date sent: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 08:56:56 +1300
Organization: NIWA


NIWA Seminar

Abrupt climatic change: are the pentagon and Hollywood right?

Professor Stefan Rahmasdorf

Professor of Physics of the oceans
University of Potsdam, Germany

Last year, the risk of abrupt climate changes has repeatedly made newspaper
headlines. In February, a Pentagon study investigating the possible consequences
of
an abrupt change in Atlantic ocean currents became public. In May, the Hollywood
thriller œThe Day After Tomorrowhit movie theatres world-wide, based on a very
similar
scenario. What is the scientific background of such scenarios, and where is the
line
separating facts from fiction?

Data from the Greenland ice cores and deep sea sediments reveal that large and
abrupt climate changes (within ~10 years) have occurred frequently in the past.
In the
absence of abrupt climate forcing, this suggests a highly non-linear response of
the
climate system to gradual forcing. Does this mean that abrupt climate changes
could
happen again in future as a result of anthropogenic warming, or can they only
occur
under glacial conditions?

The talk attempts to summarise our current knowledge of the causes and
mechanisms
of abrupt climate changes. It will discuss possible scenarios of future
non-linear climate
responses such as changes in ocean circulation. To evaluate the risk of such
"low
probability - high impact" events, a risk assessment approach is needed.

Friday, 25 February
10.30 a.m.

Main Conference Room, Allen Building
NIWA, Greta Point


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