From now on we hope to provide monthly news email updates –EXCKUSIVE to paid up Met Soc members. 

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 From your newsletter editor bobmcd@...

Flood damage still being assessed

http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/411365/1045643

 Apr 2, 2007

The clean-up continued in the Far North on Monday. And as Cabinet considered what its financial response to the floods would be it emerged that 23 homes in the area have been declared unsuitable to live in.

It is estimated the total cost of the clean-up will be around $80 million.

A house-to-house survey of properties in the more severely affected areas of Paihia, Opua and Russell revealed 65 houses have been damaged, either by floodwater inundation or slips. Of those houses, 23 have been declared dangerous and unsuitable to live in and a further five are close to the dangerous category.

The number of houses substantially damaged by the weather event is expected to continue to increase over the next few days as more information comes to hand.

By Monday morning the insurance industry had received around 700 notifications of damage and some 20 claims are understood to have been lodged with the Earthquake Commission. 

The Insurance Council is encouraging those who have suffered damage to lodge their claims as soon as possible. Damage the farming industries in the region is still being assessed. However preliminary reports indicate that damage may not have been as extensive as earlier feared. The majority of rural damage relates to fences lost in the flooding, siltation of pastures and on-farm slips.

Farmers in the region have estimated the total cost to their livelihood will be around $20 million.

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Easter downpours should turn to clear skies

http://nz.news.yahoo.com/070404/2/9lz.html

Wednesday April 4, 02:06 PM. By Darren Bevan

A mixed bag of weather is forecast for the Easter weekend.

MetService is warning of heavy downpours for the central and northern parts of the North Island tomorrow. Good Friday will see a cold front sweep north after coming in from Invercargill, bringing more rain on Saturday.

Global warming puts NZ at risk of disasters (abridged)

http://nz.news.yahoo.com/070410/3/adi.html

NZPA Tuesday April 10, 04:13 PM

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) scientist Dr David Wratt told media while there were things New Zealanders could do to offset any changes, there were likely to be "significant impacts" on water, health, ecosystems and coastlines in New Zealand….

The report's grim findings also extend to the Pacific Islands.

Pene Lefale, of the New Zealand MetService, said global weather change could increase tropical cyclones leading to significant damage to food crops and infrastructure in the Pacific.

Port facilities at Suva, Fiji, and Apia, Samoa, could be swamped by a 0.5 metre rise in sea level combined with waves associated in a one-in-a-half-century cyclone.

Climate change not all doom and gloom (expanded)

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10433431

- NZHERALD STAFF / NZPA     nzherald.co.nz graphic

New Zealand will become more vulnerable to floods, storms and fire as a result of global warming and climate change over the next century, an international report released today claims.

The United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) final draft copy of the Australia and New Zealand chapter was outlined at a press conference in Auckland today.  The IPCC, set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organisation and the UN Environment Programme, is a collaboration of more than 2500 climate change scientists and 130 governments.

Scientists told media the outlook for New Zealand was not all "doom and despondency" despite the report's bleak forecast. However, water security, natural ecosystems and coastal communities are the three sectors most at risk to climate change in New Zealand, the paper said.

Coastal communities

Coastal communities will be the worst hit by climate change in New Zealand, according to the report.

Sea levels have already risen by about 70mm since 1950 and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns not enough is being done.

Coastal development and population growth in areas such as Northland to Bay of Plenty could increase risks from sea-level rise and greater severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050, the report said.

"Vigorous" western swells and increasing westerly winds are predicted.

The report added that "differences in political commitment, lack of strong and clear guidelines from government, and legal challenges by property owners" were significant constraints to tackling the problem.

Other major issues facing New Zealand include risks to water security and natural ecosystems.

NIWA's Dr Jim Salinger, today releasing the local conclusions of a worldwide report finalised in Brussels last Friday, said: "The potential impacts of climate change for New Zealand are likely to be substantial without further adaptation."

However, he said a strong economy and advanced technical and scientific skills left the country well placed to tackle the problem.

The report's findings include a claim that, as a result of reduced rainfall and increased evaporation, water supply problems will intensify by 2030 in Northland and some eastern regions.

Biodiversity could be hit in alpine areas and the sub Antarctic Islands.

Agriculture and forestry production is predicted to decline by 2030 over parts of eastern New Zealand due to increased drought and fire.

But western and southern areas and close to major rivers could see initial benefits due to a longer growing season, less frost, and increased rainfall.

A southward shift in agricultural pests and diseases is likely.

The general findings of its latest report were unveiled in Brussels last week.

The report was based on 550 research studies.

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report says changes already observed in New Zealand since 1950 include:

* A warming in mean temperature of 0.4degC;

* A decreased in cold nights and frosts by 10 to 20 days a year;

* Sea level rise of about 70mm;

* Loss of at least a quarter of alpine ice mass;

* Increased seed production in beech forest.

And what climate change means for future:

* Water security problems to intensify by 2030 in Northland and some eastern regions;

* Sites at risk of loss of biodiversity include the alpine areas and sub-Antarctic islands;

* Coastal development and growth in Northland and Bay of Plenty will exacerbate risks from sea-level rise and increases in the number and severity of storms and coastal flooding by 2050;

* Agriculture and forestry production to decline by 2030 over eastern parts due to increased drought and fire;

* Initial benefits to agriculture and forestry in western and southern areas and along major rivers due to longer growing season, less frost and increased rainfall;

New Zealand Climate Science Coalition spokesman Augie Auer said, that the report was more of the same.

The projections had no realism at all, with a computer generating different outcomes based on contrived situations, he said.

"They have no way of determining what will happen."

Mr Auer said he had noticed an attempt to not be as bleak in this report as on previous occasions, with the use of a more optimistic forecasts.

Despite this the debate was being led by alarmists, he said.

"Jim Salinger has come out and said in drier places, it will get drier.

"In wetter places, it will get wetter.

"Well that's a real no brainer, isn't it?"  Mr Auer said the science was not settled on the issue and debate was needed. The involvement of the MetService in the latest report was also questionable, he said.

Climate change report: Act now, or face flood and fire

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10433599

5:00AM Wednesday April 11, 2007, By Angela Gregory 

Photo / Brett Phibbs

New Zealand would be increasingly vulnerable to serious events like major floods if the predicted temperature rise happens.

New Zealand is being warned to prepare for floods, droughts and fire over the next century as a result of climate change and global warming.

The outlook comes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) whose key findings on impacts were released yesterday in a worldwide series of regional briefings.

The IPCC was formed in 1988 to provide scientific advice on climate change and assesses current knowledge in six yearly reports.

Dr David Wratt, a review editor and leader of Niwa's national climate centre, said in Auckland that the IPCC was an impartial body and "not trying to prove anything", allowing the science to speak for itself.

It involved over 1200 scientific authors and 2500 expert reviewers from more than 130 countries, and in a report this year concluded that global warming was indisputable and "very likely" to be man-made.

Dr Wratt said there was no doubt the world was seeing the effects of climate change caused by human activity since 1750, especially the burning of fossil fuels.

Changes observed in New Zealand since 1950 included a warming in mean temperature of 0.4 degC, a decrease in cold nights and frosts by 10 to 20 days per year, a sea level rise of about 70mm, and a loss of at least a quarter of alpine ice mass.

The report predicted that by 2080 there could be up to a 3.5 degC rise in average temperatures and increased rainfall except in the eastern North Island and the northern South Island.

Dr Wratt said New Zealand was more resilient to climate change than many other countries as it was surrounded by oceans but was nonetheless vulnerable to serious events such as major floods.

The IPCC report identified a need to plan for climate changes but said little research had been done.

There were major implications for New Zealand communities including the costs of injury and trauma due to increased storm intensity and higher extreme temperatures, degraded beaches due to sea levels rising and larger storm surges.

There were risks to flora and fauna from climate change in alpine zones and freshwater habitats.

Heat-related deaths were likely to double from 14 to 28 people aged over 65 each year.

There could be an increase in agricultural production up to the year 2050 in parts of the country because of higher carbon dioxide concentrations, longer growing seasons and less frost but that would be offset by increased droughts and fire risks in other areas.

Dr Wratt said efforts could be made to avoid the risks of climate change such as restricting development in flood prone areas or building larger stormwater drains.

But the report identified barriers including ongoing scepticism, a lack of integrated assessments of climate change impacts and weak linkages between levels of government to deal with it.

The report had found water security, natural ecosystems, and coastal communities were the three sectors most vulnerable to climate change in New Zealand and identified hotspots.

The coast in Northland and the Bay of Plenty was at particular risk from sea-level rises and storms by 2050, the eastern lowland regions were at risk from increased drought, and the Southern Alps at risk from glacial shrinkage and loss of biodiversity.

As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems were projected to intensify by 2030 in Northland and some eastern regions.

Niwa scientist Dr Jim Salinger, lead author of the chapter in the report referring to Australia and New Zealand, said the potential impacts of climate change were likely to be substantial without further adaptation.

Dr Salinger said New Zealand had the capacity to cope with small amounts of climate change due to its well-developed economy and strong scientific and technical capabilities.

Climate change set to erode house values

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10433806

5:00AM Thursday April 12, 2007 by Martha McKenzie-Minifie 

Photo / Hawke's Bay Today

Some sought-after coastal properties could fall in value because insurers are refusing to cover them for extreme weather events linked to global warming.

The insurers' tough line against properties in flood and erosion-risk areas could make it impossible for buyers to get mortgages.

The move comes as climate change experts warn New Zealand will be hit by more severe storms, coastal erosion and flooding.

Already, insurers are refusing to cover some flood-prone Hawke’s Bay and Coromandel Peninsula properties. Insurance Council chief executive Chris Ryan expects the refusals to increase during the next 20 years.

At worst thousands of properties could be affected, he said.

Mr Ryan said this week's United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report was a warning for homeowners.

New Zealanders must expect consequences from buying high-risk properties. "Over the next two decades, there will be far harder questions asked by insurers when people come to insure their homes about the risks that apply."

Mr Ryan said there had been a "rush to the coast" at a time when risks were dramatically increasing.

"The changing weather that we are experiencing will raise the risk for some particular properties. In a worst-case scenario, those properties might not get insurance."

Local authorities also might be asked to pay to better protect properties and bolster flood banks, he said.

The Australia and New Zealand chapter of the UN report said climate change was "very likely" to affect property values because of the increased hazards. It predicted erosion, rising sea levels and more storms affecting coasts.

And it said the price and availability of insurance would also take a hit: "Insurance costs are very likely to rise in areas with increased risk."

Mortgage Brokers Association chief executive Megan Salt said some lenders already would not provide mortgages for properties in flood-prone areas. "Whether that's now likely to extend to some coastal properties, they'll be assessing that."

She said any fallout from climate change was likely to be several years away because the timeframe for extreme weather predictions stretched to 2050. "Most mortgages are only 25 years anyway so we are a few years away from it yet."

Untimely cold snap poses problems for Central grape harvest

http://www.stuff.co.nz/southlandtimes/4024310a6011.html

By AIMEE WILSON and SOPHIE SPEER - The Southland Times Friday, 13 April 2007

Central Otago winemakers are bracing themselves for a challenging few days on the eve of this year's harvest, as the latest cold snap threatens grape vines.

Wind machines have been cranked into action for the first time this year in the past few nights, as temperatures neared freezing point.

Central Otago Winegrowers Association President Martin Anderson said many growers had been holding off picking to allow the fruit to develop, but this week's cold weather may make them think twice about leaving fruit on the vines too long.

"Most winemakers are letting it hang a bit longer, to let the flavour through, but they will have to pick it if the weather continues like this," he said.

This year's yield would likely be down by between 20 and 30 percent on last year, because the bunches were smaller, but the tonnage would remain strong because the area in production had increased, he said.

Last year the area produced more than 6500 tonnes from more than 2000ha. Mr Anderson said predictions for 2010 to 2011 were for double that, estimated at 13,000 tonnes.

The 2005 season was hindered by rain during flowering and in 2004 the vineyards were badly affected by frost.

The canopies on many vineyards were looking very green, which was an effective barrier from the rain, Mr Anderson said.

"Everyone's pretty nervous about the weather forecast over the next few days. But we don't want everyone picking at the same time. They need to stagger it," he said.

Mt Difficulty winemaker Matthew Dicey said their grapes were almost at the picking stage so weren't on the cusp of a disaster, but they had wind machines in place if needed.

"The worst thing that could happen would be all the leaves drop off and the grapes stop ripening. But they are almost ripe now anyway."

Wednesday night was not bad, and he had not heard of any winegrower who had been badly affected by the weather, but last night was predicted to be colder.

Collaboration between NIWA and Metservice

Thursday, 12 April 2007, 4:34 pm,

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC0704/S00030.htm

In a joint statement MetService Chief Executive Mr Paul Reid and NIWA's Acting Chief Executive Dr Bryce Cooper say: "The relationship issues reported in the media are not those of the current people involved. Both organisations are continuing to work together to ensure that any investments made by either organisation are maximised and coordinated for the benefit of all New Zealanders."

MetService and NIWA are currently in joint discussions using an external facilitator, Alison Patterson. There have been rapid advances in forecasting technology over the last few years, and the discussions are aimed at ensuring that New Zealanders can benefit from these advances.

Snow falls in Dunedin, severe gales forecast for Auckland

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10434050

12:45PM Friday April 13, 2007

Snow fell in Dunedin's hill suburbs this morning, as sleet, rain and wind hit other parts of the city.

Meanwhile, MetService said strong winds in Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula could reach severe gale force around lunchtime.

It said the southwesterlies could peak with gusts of up to 120 km/h.

A warning of severe gales in some exposed coastal parts of Southland, eastern Otago and Banks Peninsula was also in place until late afternoon or evening. The temperature in Dunedin was sitting at about three degrees all morning.

Police say there have not been any weather related problems so far, but they are urging motorists to continue driving to the conditions.

MetService is forecasting southwesterly winds of up to 130 km/h in exposed coastal areas for the rest of the day.

It said: "Gusts of this strength have the potential to cause damage to trees and power lines, and make driving difficult for high sides vehicles and motorbikes."

Cold snap 'almost off the ice'

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/southlandtimes/4025545a6568.html

By SARAH KILKELLY - The Southland Times Saturday, 14 April 2007

JOHN HAWKINS/Southland Times/Image ID 102886

BRRRRRR: Samantha Moseley, 15, and Kartn Sanders, 15, of Central Otago, found the weather in Invercargill decidedly frigid on their visit yesterday.

Parts of the South Island were in the thrall of an unforgiving Antarctic tempest yesterday.

However, MetService forecaster Bob Lake said the squall doesn't have to mean the end of the golden weather.  The cold southerly lashing the south yesterday was "almost coming off the ice”, with the South Otago coast and parts of Eastern Southland affected by strong winds.

The MetService was maintaining a warning of severe south-west gales in those areas yesterday afternoon, with gusts of up to 120kmh expected until late last night.

The MetService said such wind gusts had the potential to cause damage to trees and power lines and made driving difficult for high-sided vehicles and motorbikes.

Mr Lake said the strong winds get "knocked around" by the topography of the South Island, because the wind was funnelled around the coast or around a headland and over a hill and whip up to gale force.

Hydro lakes at good levels

http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaruherald/4028477a6010.html

By HELEN PICKERING - The Timaru Herald Tuesday, 17 April 2007

South Canterbury's hydro lakes are in a good state and there are no fears for winter power supplies.

Meridian Energy spokesperson Helen Morgan-Banda said the lake levels were around average or a bit higher than average for this time of year.

"We are comfortable with where they are at for this time of year.

"There is a bit more water than usual going through the Waitaki system at the moment but we have no intention of spilling water at this stage."

Mountains deteriorating with changes in climate

http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaruherald/4030744a6010.html

By ROB KERR - The Timaru Herald Thursday, 19 April 2007

Climate change isn't a theory for mountain guide Gottlieb Braun-Elwert – it's as real as avalanches, growing crevasses and hectares of ice breaking off glaciers.

He said in 30 years the fragile Southern Alps environment has changed with retreating glaciers, increasing crevasses, avalanches and decreasing snow pack. This, along with permafrost thawing, will restrict access, increase danger, and compromise the area's beauty.

Mountain guide Gottlieb Braun-Elwert believes the Southern Alps are being affected by global warming.

Mr Braun-Elwert believes that eventually the structure of the mountains themselves will be threatened.

He said deep glaciers held up the sides of young and unstable mountains.

The bracing at the base helped stability to the summit. With the retreat of ice, erosion was increasing.

"They are very young rock and if you take the lateral pressure of the ice away, those slopes on the sides will simply collapse."

He said the folded Southern Alps could be compared to books in a shelf: remove the end supports and they simply fell apart.

Mr Braun-Elwert believed many land slides, including one on Mt Fletcher above the Maud Glacier in 1992, could be attributed to down-wasting of the glacier (losing depth). Landslides were natural processes, but they became more common.

The creation of glacial lakes and loss of large amounts of glacier ice undercut by the lakes was a "showcase" for global warming. "This is like the canary in the coalmine."

He said that in a few decades access to popular routes, including the Copland Pass, have been compromised by the loss of tens of metres of depth off glaciers.

"You can see it already where the moraine wall (loose rock bank left on the side of a glacier when it melts) is growing quite dramatically"

He said access to the Beetham Valley was now severely restricted.

"We need to accept there is global warming. From a mountaineering point of view it's pretty obvious. With crevasses opening up we just can't do what we did 20 years ago."

The loss of snow pack and increased crevasses on the neve (top of the glacier) were a clear sign – with serious repercussions for climbing and skiing.

This summer access to easy peaks, such as the Hochsteter Dome, on the Tasman Glacier was more difficult by mid-summer.

He said the snowline, the transition between snow and ice, was slowly moving further up the mountains – a bad sign for the glaciers.

Mr Braun-Elwert said many people would never visit the alps, but eventually everyone would be affected.

Flows into the Tasman River were boosted over summer by an estimated four cumecs (an extra four cubic metres of water flowing past every second).

"Once the ice has gone there will be a drought, there is no doubt about it."

He believed greater thawing of the permafrost made anchor stones (big rocks to tie a rope to) unstable and rock slides more common.

"I can send you a photo of an almost continuous rock avalanche coming off the Anzac Peaks which happened in March. I wanted to take a movie, house-sized boulders were coming down there every day."

Mr Braun-Elwert said no one was affected on the Anzac Peaks because it was not a known climbing route. However, the extended avalanche, which has slowed with the return of colder autumn temperatures, indicated the instability in the mountains.

No water, feed for HB farms

http://www.hbtoday.co.nz/localnews/storydisplay.cfm?storyid=3731857&thesection=localnews&thesubsection=&thesecondsubsection=

30.04.2007 By Rebecca Harper, Hawke’s Bay Today.

A severe lack of feed and no rain in sight is the grim reality faced by many Hawke's Bay farmers, who are starting to truck in supplementary feed in from all over the North Island.

While Bay farmers are used to dry summers, many were relying on March rain to kickstart autumn grass growth and see them through the winter. However, the lack of rain with winter fast approaching and very little feed on the ground has urged many into action. Mike Kettle, of Mike Kettle Contracting Ltd in Havelock North, said his phone had been ringing constantly for weeks and there was no supplementary feed to be found in the region.

"We don't have any available now. It's all coming in from outside the area - Waikato, Manawatu, and the Wairarapa," he said.

Freight costs were also driving the overall cost of supplementary feed up.

"What you're buying it for isn't outrageous, but once you stick on another $800 to $1000 for haulage it adds up," Mr Kettle said.

The root of the problem was a cold spring, which meant very little hay or grass silage was made compared to usual. "If we'd had a normal hay season we wouldn't be in the situation we're in now."

Mr Kettle said while some farmers still had hay, it was hard to know how long the dry period would last, so many wanted to be prepared.

Another consequence of the weather was low stock prices: "People are having trouble getting stock up to weight so they can kill - it's a vicious cycle and we're stuck in the middle."

Rod Parsons of Middle Hills Contracts Ltd based in Central Hawke's Bay said there was "a very big zero" amount of supplementary feed available in the region. He said people were coming to the end of their reserves and a lot was being trucked in from the Manawatu, however it was "starting to price itself out of the market". A round bale of baleage was worth about $65 in the Manawatu, but he estimated the total cost per bale would be closer to $100 once trucked to the Bay and unloaded.

Mr Parsons said it would be interesting to see what happened when dairy cows started drying off for the winter and needed grazing. Many dairy cows came to the Bay for winter grazing and, given the situation now, grazing rates would probably go up.