Big bill for island damage

By AMY MILNE - The Southland Times | Wednesday, 1 August 2007

BARRY HARCOURT/Southland Times/Image ID 108887

DOWN SHE GOES: The sad sight of a yacht that succumbed to the storm at Thule Bay during high winds at Stewart Island.

The bill from slips and other damage on Stewart Island after this week's rain deluge was likely to reach hundreds of thousands of dollars, the Southland District Council said yesterday.

MetService readings show 174mm fell at the South West Cape of the island in four days.

MetService forecaster Oliver Druce said the good news was the worst of it was over. However, that had come too late for some.

Ackers Point residents Philippa Fraser-Wilson and Ian Wilson now have to walk 500m to their vehicles because the road to their house had been closed since Saturday because of slips. Mrs Fraser-Wilson said the road had been unstable for some time and increased traffic in recent years, such as tourist buses, had sped up the problem.

Ready to feel the heat

Sunday August 05, 2007 By Sarah Stuart

New Zealand faces decades of drought, flooding, intense winds and enormous changes to farming and crop production because of global warming, a new book on the future of our weather reveals.

Kiwifruit growing will be squeezed out of some regions, wine will be grown in Southland, olives in Dunedin and average temperatures will rise up to 4C under scenarios painted by science writer Gareth Renowden in Hot Topic: Global Warming and the Future of New Zealand (AUT Media), published next week.

Renowden has drawn on Niwa studies and international research to pinpoint what global warming will mean for New Zealand over the next century, pointing to heatwaves and regional droughts in the north and east of the country, while the west and south faced intense rain and flooding. Renowden, an olive, grape and truffle grower in Canterbury, says New Zealand - like the rest of the world - can expect average temperatures to rise between 2C and 4C by the 2090s. "Heatwaves will become more frequent and we can expect fewer frosts," he writes. "That can already be seen - the number of cold nights and frosts per year has diminished by 10-20 since 1950."

Renowden says that by the end of the century, Taranaki, Manawatu, the West Coast, Otago and Southland will have higher average rainfall, while Hawke's Bay, Gisborne and the eastern parts of Canterbury and Marlborough will be drier. "Large rainfall events are expected to become up to four times more common by the end of the century... rainfall will generally become more intense."

Over the whole of the country, there could be 20 per cent more rain on the three wettest days of the year, he says. On the West Coast that will mean 40mm more rain on each of those days. Canterbury will get 50 per cent more rain in the year's heaviest falls.

Renowden says droughts will also increase; the frequency of a one-in-20-year drought might double by the 2080s in inland and northern Otago, parts of Canterbury and Marlborough and in Wairarapa, Bay of Plenty and Northland. And that is under a "low-to-medium" warming scenario. That same one-in-20-year drought would be four times more likely in many areas under a medium-to-high warming scenario. This will mean demand for irrigation will increase considerably and warmer and shorter winters will mean a higher snowline.

Niwa's latest studies suggest that by the end of the century, Mt Cook could have an average summer temperature increase of 6C (from 14-20C) which would have a major impact on snow levels and could cause large rockfalls and landslides.

Rising sea levels are of most concern in our island nation and Renowden says Niwa is warning of a 20cm rise in sea level by 2050, and a 50cm rise by 2100.

You ask the questions: Gareth Renowden

Sunday August 12, 2007

Gareth Renowden, author of Hot Topic: Global Warming and the Future of New Zealand.

Q. I read last week's article on your new book and a lot of what you say will happen in New Zealand (wine growing in Southland, dryer warmer climate in the east etc) sounds like what our cold, damp isles need. Am I being Pollyanna?

A. There will be parts of NZ that benefit from some increased warmth over the next few decades, but there are others that will suffer. Droughts will increase in frequency down the east coast of both islands, for instance. NZ is expected to warm more slowly than most of the world, but we will still be vulnerable to what happens in the northern hemisphere. Damaging climate changes will affect the world economy, and have knock-on effects down here.

Q. If you were buying a family holiday home over the next few years, which you wanted to pass on to future generations, where would you buy and why?

A. I would be cautious about buying property on low-lying coastal land. Increased flooding caused by heavier rainfall is also likely, so I would be careful about buying property on river flood plains, or anywhere that has a history of flood problems.

Q. I'm a believer in man-made global warming who often ends up in arguments with those who say it is nothing more than a climate blip and will right itself. What is the best argument against these people?

A. About 25,000 years ago, in the middle of the last ice age, when ice caps covered Europe and North America, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was about 180 parts per million and the sea was 120m below the current level. The global average temperature was roughly 5C colder than today. Before we started burning lots of fossil fuels, atmospheric CO2 was 280ppm. Today, CO2 stands at 383ppm - about a third more than in the early 1800s. A 100ppm increase in CO2 was enough to end an ice age, and we've just added another 100ppm. We have pushed the climate system a long way beyond "normal" conditions, so it's no surprise the world is warming up and the sea level rising.

Q. What has been the most startling global and local change in climate over the past 12 months?

A. Arctic sea ice is melting at an amazing rate. US scientists monitoring the ice reported a few days ago it had set a new record low - a month ahead of the end of the melting season when the sea ice is at its lowest extent. This year is going to "annihilate" the old record (set in 2005), they said. The prospect of a North Pole free of ice in summer, until recently not expected to happen in this century, now looks as though it could happen in a few decades. In NZ we've seen extreme weather - floods in Northland and tornadoes in Taranaki. That could be a sign of what we can expect as the climate warms.

Q. Do you think the NZ Government is doing enough to prepare for climate change? What should we be doing?

A. The Government will be announcing a lot of policy over the next couple of months, so it's difficult to criticise without seeing what's proposed. I'd like to see a cross-party accord on climate policy, but that doesn't seem likely in the run-up to an election. What NZ does to cut its emissions will have no effect on global climate - we're too small to make any difference - but if we want to continue to trade with the rest of the world, we'll have to take emissions cuts seriously. At the same time, our exporters will have to ensure they are "climate friendly" if they want to do business in Europe and the rest of the world.

Three new radars to boost weather warning system

By KELLY GREGOR - Waikato Times | Saturday, 11 August 2007

A new radar system will make predicting severe weather easier in the Waikato, the MetService says.

The Government has approved funding for three new radars around the North Island. The first will be installed at New Plymouth airport next June.  MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said the new radars would give them more accurate and faster information about pending weather patterns.

The other two radars will be installed in Gisborne and the Bay of Plenty. Specific sites and dates have not yet been confirmed but they will be installed within the next three years.

The radars will cost about $10 million.

Mr McDavitt said severe thunderstorms caused significant damage very quickly, but the new radars would enable smaller and isolated towns to get plenty of warning before storms hit.

Radars were the only way to track the path and progress of thunderstorms.

The North Island now has two radars - one in Auckland and one in Wellington.

These radars cover only 25 per cent of the North Island. The three new radars will increase coverage to 80 per cent.

The regional council Environment Waikato emergency management officer Adam Munro said the radar in Taranaki "will greatly enhance EW's existing flood warning capability, by enabling the real time tracking and monitoring of severe weather systems coming into the Waikato".

Gale force winds in South and North

Aug 11, 2007 6:53 PM

Winds of up to 140 kilometres an hour brought down main power lines feeding Wanaka, Luggate and Lake Hawea.

More than 6,000 customers were affected and linesmen say repairs were not easy.

In the North Island police closed the Rimutaka road north of Wellington after wind gusts blew a car into a bank. Police were also called to help secure a trawler in Wellington that broke loose from its moorings in high seas.

Lightning forces families from homes

5:00AM Monday August 13, 2007 By Beck Vass 

Susan Takerei says a power surge burned out the meter box in her home and damaged electrical appliances. Photo / Paul Estcourt

A bolt of lightning struck a tree in South Auckland yesterday, knocking a woman off her feet, shattering windows and damaging electrical appliances.  The force of the strike was so loud residents feared a plane had crashed or that a P lab had exploded. But what they heard was lightning striking a tree, causing thousands of dollars of damage in Oakmont Place, Wattle Downs.

The lighting bolt came during heavy rain at 10.30am, sending a shard of wood through a window near where an 18-month old toddler was playing.  Several windows exploded and a power surge occurred in three households - which may need to replace all their electrical appliances - as the lightning struck just metres from where Kellie Wooding was standing.

Weather causes havoc across district

Ashburton Guardian August 13 2007

By Sue Newman and Erin

Mayfield firefighters were dodging darkness to clear Anama Station Road on Saturday night after high winds brought down trees and power lines.
Photo Erin Bishop 120807-EB-0002

Bishop 

Up to 1000 power consumers across the Ashburton District found themselves blacked out on Saturday after high winds downed lines and felled trees. Lines supervisor Ken Stirling described the power outages as one of the biggest to hit the district for some time.“It’s certainly one of the worst we’ve had for a while in terms of wind damage,” he said.Worst affected areas were Alford Forest, Staveley, Mt Somers, Anama and the Rangitata Gorge.“One of the linesmen said a customer told him it was the strongest wind they’d had for many years,” Mr Stirling said.
While most consumers had power restored by Saturday night, lines crews were still making final connections late Sunday afternoon. The power outages were caused both by poles toppling in the wind and trees falling across lines.Strong winds hit Southland, Otago and Canterbury with Middlemarch recording a gust of 154km/h late morning. Wanaka residents were without power for several hours, forcing skifields to close.The Rimutaka Hill Road, between Wellington and Wairarapa, was closed mid-afternoon after an earlier weather-related crash on the Upper Hutt side was followed by reports of trucks getting blown about by strong and unpredictable gusts.A front with heavy rain and high winds moving north over the South Island and on to the North Island caused the problems.Fiordland has received 260mm of rain in 24 hours.

Disappearing frosts a concern for agriculture

By MATT CALMAN - The Dominion Post | Monday, 13 August 2007

KIRK HARGREAVES/The Press

FAREWELL FROSTS: Climate scientists are warning that frosts could virtually be a thing of the past in parts of the North Island by the end of the next century.

Frosts in most of the North Island will be virtually "unknown" by the end of the century, a leading climate scientist says.

A decline in frosts was one of the most noticeable signs of climate change and could pose problems for agriculture, said Niwa scientist Jim Renwick.

"(Frost) tells things like fruit trees that they need to get ready to bud in the spring. They need to have winter chilling to do their whole life cycle properly, and a lot of animal and plant pests die off in winter because they get frosted.  "If that doesn't happen then that makes it a lot easier for a lot of pests - especially subtropical species - to survive in New Zealand."

Since the 1950s there has been an average of three fewer frost days per decade. In South Island areas and at higher elevations the decline has been closer to 10 to 15 days per decade.

A decline of three days in 10 years did not sound much, but if the rate of climate change continued it would become more significant, Dr Renwick said.

When he gave public talks, older people told him they could remember icy winters, but their children and grandchildren did not have the same experiences.

Driver dies in Albury snow

By BETHANY MARETT - The Timaru Herald | Tuesday, 14 August 2007

Timaru Herald

SNOW FUN: Albury resident Aaron Upston- Hooper made the most of yesterday's snowfall by skiing with his Newfoundland dog Max.

Albury copped the brunt of a blast of wintry weather yesterday that was a factor in a fatal accident there.

Motorists were last night warned to take special care on the Mackenzie Country roads after snow was a factor in a fatal accident near Albury on State Highway 8.

Yesterday's wintry blast saw several snow flurries in the Mackenzie Country and a drop in temperature in Timaru.  Mid-afternoon Albury copped a solid blast that left about a 10cm coating settled on the ground.  At 9pm last night the snow had stopped falling in Albury but it was still falling lightly in Fairlie.  A sprinkling of snow in Tekapo and Fairlie yesterday morning soon vanished after a burst of sunshine. The snowy weather was forecast to move on during the night but the Metservice warned motorists to take care as roads will be icy following the sub-zero temperatures.

"Some severe frosts, freezing fogs and black ice are likely to produce hazardous driving conditions, especially in central parts of the South Island," MetService weather ambassador Bob McDavitt said.  However, the icy conditions are only expected to last a few days.

"After Wednesday a mild northeasterly flow is expected to flush away the cold stagnant pools of air."

The wintry conditions may have contributed to the death of a 67-year-old Cave motorist yesterday when the Toyota Hilux 4WD he was driving left the road near Albury. The man was travelling towards Cave on State Highway 8 when the accident occurred about 3pm.  

The cold blast ripped through Otago and Southland, closing some schools. However the cold snap proved a bonus for skifields with a fresh dumping of snow and capacity crowds.  Treble Cone received between 65 to 75cm of snow on Saturday, the Remarkables a total of 65cm, Cardrona Ski Area had 40cm and Coronet Peak received 25cm to 30cm during the weekend.

Winter chill returns to south

By SOPHIE SPEER - The Southland Times | Tuesday, 14 August 2007

The respite from the wintry weather has broken, with icy conditions and some snow throughout Southland and Central Otago yesterday. About 10cm of snow fell at Ohai and the hills surrounding Nightcaps were caked in thick snow, while flurries fell at Athol and Winton yesterday.  The hills around Waikaka also received a dusting of snow.  A heavy frost meant a day off school for some Southland children yesterday. Several school bus runs were cancelled at Tuatapere and around the Western Southland area yesterday as road conditions proved treacherous.  Invercargill awoke to a 6degC ground frost and an air temperature of just 2degC yesterday morning

BARRY HARCOURT/Southland Times

SNOWBLIND: Sheep found food hard to come by at Ohai yesterday after about 10cm of snow fell. Wintry weather has returned to Southland and Central Otago and the frosty conditions are expected to continue for the next few days.

MetService weather ambassador Bob McDavitt said residents could expect another cold frost this morning.  Wanaka and Gore experienced a 4degC frost yesterday morning, while the temperature in Queenstown was balancing on freezing at 8am yesterday.

"Some severe frosts, freezing fogs and black ice are likely to produce hazardous driving conditions especially in central parts of the South Island on Tuesday and Wednesday morning."  Mr McDavitt cautioned drivers on roads in the south, saying any wet roads would freeze and be treacherous.

The cold weather has provided skifields with a fresh dumping of snow and capacity crowds. Treble Cone received between 65 and 75cm of snow on Saturday, the Remarkables a total of 65cm, Cardrona Ski Area 40cm and Coronet Peak 25cm to 30cm during the weekend.

45S Weather Services forecaster Andy Fraser said the cold snap was normal for this time of year.  "It's still winter, so it's not out of the normal range of weather."

Toxic dust from Australia polluting the South Island
Wed, 15 Aug 2007 06:19p.m.

An Australian scientist has made a surprising discovery in the South Island's glaciers - heavy metals that have blown here from Australia.  For decades researchers have been tracking harmless clouds of dust that has ended up here from across the ditch. But they did not expect it to contain toxic material. This red dust has been carried by the wind from the Australian outback to the South Island's pristine fox glacier - and it has brought a whole lot of other nasties with it too. ‘The dust samples transported to New Zealand are highly enriched in a number of heavy metals that are commonly associated with industrial processes’, Dr Samuel Marx says. They are metals like copper, nickel and lead that belch out of industrial plants and factories along Australia’s east coast before attaching themselves to dust particles that blow across the Tasman. ‘What we don't know at this stage is how much of these pollutants are being incorporated into the environment and that really controls what affect they're likely to be having’, says Dr Marx.

Smoke from Australian bush fires provides a graphic illustration of what the prevailing winds can bring to our shores when the westerly picks up. It's the same wind that is blowing the dust and metals here and while scientists aren't surprised, they say it highlights another threat to New Zealand’s image.
NIWA is considering how to more closely monitor the pollutants to see what long term affects they may have on the environment.

Tech hotspot fires up supercomputer

Thursday August 16, 2007 By Peter Griffin 

An IBM Blue Gene/L chip - New Zealand's gruntiest computer has 4000 of them.

"You don't buy these things, they get offered to a select few," says the University of Canterbury's Professor Tim David, who is in charge of New Zealand's most powerful computer.

It's hard to talk over the roar of cooling fans in the air-conditioned room that holds the "Blue Fern" supercomputer.

In obtaining the 4000-processor computer, the university joins a group of 25 academic institutions with that level of computing power, including Harvard and MIT. It might appear to be overkill then for a smaller institution like the University Canterbury to have the only one of its type in Australasia. But that underestimates the ambition of the institution, which is a hotspot for technology research and development.

Canterbury already has a P-series IBM supercomputer. Professor David's hope is that the two supercomputers will be able to be used to simultaneously work on the same research projects.

The types of tasks Blue Fern will tackle include one for Professor Andy Sturman of the Centre for Atmospheric Research. He has been measuring wind flows over the South Island to provide data to companies to build wind farms. Steve George, from the Department of Physics and Astronomy at Canterbury, has been modelling weather patterns - essential to understanding climate change.

Upper North Island hit by storm

11:04AM Friday August 17, 2007 By Tony Gee  and Edward Gay 

Floods have been lapping Northland roads. Photo / Paul Estcourt

Another storm brought down trees and caused flooding in the north of the North Island last night. The wind and rain caused minor flooding in Whangarei and some tree branches were down in some parts of Auckland.

Households in western Bay of Plenty were left without power this morning while three homes were flooded overnight in Stanmore Bay, north of Auckland. Powerlines were knocked down in Massey, west Auckland, and Milford on the North Shore and firefighters helped residents with leaky roofs.

In Wellington, police said flooding on roads and reduced visibility was causing problems for morning commuters.

Kaeo, ravaged by floods in March and again last month, escaped another inundation although it had 77.5mm of rain in 12 hours to late yesterday.

Northland Regional Council hydrologist Dale Hansen said 14mm an hour was falling on the town at one stage, similar to Ohaeawai, near Kaikohe, which had 72mm in the same period.

Kerikeri's western hills had 82.5mm, and Puhipuhi north of Whangarei recorded 70mm. Whangarei got 45mm and Kaitaia 38.5mm. on the west coast, Opononi recorded 23mm.

Scientists address climate change at marine conf

Monday, 20 August 2007, Press Release: University of Waikato

As climate change dominates conversations all over the world, top scientists will gather at the University of Waikato to discuss the impacts the phenomenon on marine systems at the Annual New Zealand Marine Sciences Society Conference, 29 -31 August.

'The worm snail that ate the reef' will be among the 180 presentations featured at the conference, alongside 'A cocktail of urban influx in estuaries: Hangovers for biota?' and 'I get around: Dispersal by macroalgae', to name a few.

This year the conference will host six plenary speakers, including the Minister for Climate Change, the Hon. David Parker. The plenary speakers will all draw on their expertise to discuss how marine systems might respond to climatic fluctuations in response to recent scientific reports documenting likely increases in global temperatures.

Dr Jim Renwick, Chief Climate Scientist at NIWA, will speak about the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and discuss some of the key messages in its recent Assessment Report. Dr Renwick leads a major research programme on climate variability and change, and is interested in Southern Hemisphere climate variability and impacts of climate on the New Zealand environment.

Also from NIWA is Dr Simon Thrush, a coastal ecosystems science leader. Dr Thrush will address the impacts of climate change on coastal soft sediment ecosystems. Dr Thrush will also demonstrate how Antarctica is such an important region for understanding ecological responses to climate change, drawing on his visits to the Ross Sea, where he investigated the biodiversity of the Antarctic marine environment.

Global warming sceptic Associate Professor Chris de Freitas from the University of Auckland School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science and marine ecologist Professor David Schiel from the University of Canterbury will also speak.

Visit: nzmss.rsnz.org/conference.html

Winemakers due south as climate changes

Saturday August 25, 2007

Climate change is allowing winemakers to grow grape cultivars further south and at higher altitudes. Photo / Babiche Martens

Climate change will enable New Zealand winemakers to grow grape cultivars further south and at higher altitudes than their existing ranges, says a senior climate scientist.

Wine styles likely to "migrate" south include sauvignon blanc - now grown in the Wairarapa and Marlborough - which is likely to be grown in Canterbury in 20 or 30 years, said Dr Jim Salinger of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa).

"The warming will allow the spread of the latitude range of wine styles further south, with red wines becoming more important in the east of the North island," he said in a presentation to the annual Romeo Bragato conference at Auckland yesterday.

But in the northern wine-grape regions a key issue will be whether, with the warming, there will be changes in rainfall and winter chilling.

"Should growing season rainfall increase, particularly in the autumn then there could be negative impacts on grape quality," said Dr Salinger.

Over the same period, cabernet sauvignon, merlot and franc cultivars grown in the Auckland region are likely to give way to types such as grenache and carignane.

In the Gisborne area, chardonnay was likely to be replaced by shiraz, grenache and zindafel, while chardonnay and merlot were likely to be replaced by shiraz and malbec in Hawke's Bay.

Wairarapa's pinot noir could be supplanted by merlot, malbec and cabernet franc grapes while cabernet sauvignon and merlot were likely to replace sauvignon blanc in Marlborough.

In Canterbury, sauvignon blanc could replace chardonnay, while the pinot noir very suited to both Canterbury and Otago, could spread out to higher altitude sites in these regions.

Dr Salinger said climate change was an important issue for wine-grape growers, because vineyards have a life of about 20-30 years.

In viticultural areas, a warming of 0.1-degC to 1.4degC was likely with stronger westerly winds and lower rainfalls in eastern areas. Most wine-growing areas would experience a drop in rainfall, and by the 2030s there would be 120 more "degree days" - a measure of heat used by growers. There would be a lot fewer frosts with a longer frost-free season in the South Island and the lower North Island. The annual number of frosts in these areas was likely to drop by 10.

Automatic MetService weather-watcher joins crewmates

5:00AM Thursday August 30, 2007

The MetService has begun minute-by-minute monitoring of weather around coastal New Zealand by mounting an automatic station on a ship.  Previously, forecasters relied on calls by sailors every 12 hours to tell them about the conditions. The first station has been fitted on to the Spirit of Competition, sailed by Pacifica Shipping between Wellington and Lyttelton.

Measuring wind, temperature and barometric conditions, the stations, adapted from MetService's land-based ones, send the information collected back through Vodafone's cellular link.

MetService marine observations manager Julie Fletcher said the aim was to put the stations onto more ships and expand the area covered.

Boaties get new weather service

The Nelson Mail | Saturday, 1 September 2007

Nelson boaties now have access to up-to-the-minute weather information through new forecasting technology.

The Nelson Volunteer Coastguard flicked the switch on the NowCasting VHF radio-based weather reporting system on Thursday.  Coastguard New Zealand central region manager Phil Pollero said the Nelson region's service was introduced as part of the national organisation's plan to install NowCasting in sites nationwide.

The $30,000 system installed in Nelson provides the latest weather conditions at certain locations within the VHF radio coverage area. It works by obtaining data from five weather sites operated by the Coastguard and MetService plus wind and wave data from the Port Nelson outer leading beacon.

There are weather sites at Farewell Spit, Stephens Island and the newly installed north cardinal mark in Tasman Bay. Mr Pollero said weather data collected from these sites is then sent automatically in digitised form to the Mt Campbell broadcast site in the Arthur Ranges, and "turned into words" that are fed immediately through the VHF radio network.

"The information is continually updated so that what you hear on the VHF radio is up-to-the-minute data, which provides excellent information for sound decision-making for those planning to put to sea," Mr Pollero said.  The service can be used on VHF channel 22.

NowCasting was first introduced into the Hauraki Gulf by Auckland Coastguard about 20 years ago. The service was introduced last year into the Wellington-Cook Strait area providing coverage of Wellington Harbour, Cook Strait, Marlborough Sounds and west coast of the North Island to Foxton.