Hi folks,

It looks as if Mt. Lemmon has found the first object
(currently on NEOCP) with a near certainty of hitting
the earth. It won't be anything more than a spectacular
meteor (H=30.5), and the orbit isn't solid enough to say
exactly where and when it will hit... too bad; I'm never
looking the right way when a nice meteor appears.
Pseudo-MPEC is at

http://home.gwi.net/~pluto/mpec.htm

Note that the nominal perigee distance is 5866 km.
The Earth's equatorial radius is 6378 km. Impact time
would be a few minutes before the nominal perigee time,
October 7 at 1:53 UT.

I did get a few Monte Carlo orbits that missed the
earth, but about 90% had perigee < earth radius.

It's not of much more than theoretical interest,
since we don't know exactly where or when it will hit.
Still, I thought some note should be taken of it.

-- Bill