Dr. Clay,

I assume you jest, right? The whole thing is a tongue in cheek joke, but
the broadcast is serious to enable those not in the path to see it. I
broadcast all of my occultation expeditions live. This one fits that
category.

If I have run afoul of this lists rules just ignore the message...

Scotty

Santa Fe, NM  USA
http://scottysmightymini.com/
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
scotty@...

Santa Fe, NM  USA
http://scottysmightymini.com/
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
scotty@...
888-687-5444 toll free to my cell


On 5/12/2012 2:34 PM, P. Clay Sherrod wrote:
>
> Curious if this "YouTube" announcement was approved by the minor
> planet list
> moderator?
>
> Dr. Clay
> _____
> Arkansas Sky Observatories
> MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
> MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
> MPC H43 - Conway West
> http://www.arksky.org/
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Scotty Degenhardt" <scotty@...
> <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>>
> To: "Scotty Degenhardt" <scotty@...
> <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>>
> Sent: Saturday, May 12, 2012 3:28 PM
> Subject: {MPML} May 20, 2012 Annular Eclipse broadcast LIVE from Area
> 51's
> Black Mailbox!
>
> > IMMEDIATE PRESS RELEASE
> >
> >
> > YOUTUBE ANNOUNCEMENT: http://youtu.be/nI18UeeKNVw
> >
> > EVENT: May 20, 2012 Annular Solar Eclipse
> >
> > LIVE on Scotty's Sky:http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
> >
> > LOCATION: From Area 51's Black Mailbox
> >
> >
> > EQUIPMENT: Solar filter with orange rendering of sun, color video
> > through an Orion 80mm ST refractor, clock driven, live streaming video
> > and audio on Verizon 3G over iPhone, wireless audio by Lectrosonics.
> >
> >
> > Broadcast begins PROMPTLY
> >
> > With a tour of the equipment @
> >
> > 5:10 PM PDT
> >
> > 6:10 PM MDT
> >
> > 7:10 PM CDT
> >
> > 8:10 PM EDT
> >
> > Eclipse START
> >
> > 5:21 PM PDT
> >
> > 6:21 PM MDT
> >
> > 7:21 PM CDT
> >
> > 8:21 PM EDT
> >
> > Annular START about
> >
> > (depending on what location I am at)
> >
> > 6:32 PM PDT
> >
> > 7:32 PM MDT
> >
> > 8:32 PM CDT
> >
> > 9:32 PM EDT
> >
> >
> > Join us LIVE on Ustream for on hoot of a daytime Star Party!!!
> >
> > Scotty
> >
> > --
> > Santa Fe, NM USA
> > http://scottysmightymini.com/
> > http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
> > scotty@... <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>
> > 888-687-5444 toll free to my cell
> >
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------------------------------
> >
> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> >
> > Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with
> > the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the
> > source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
>
>


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

I agree that the content is valid.
However, it has very little to do with minor planets, and I suspect that if
everyone started posting at random without approval there could be a problem
on any of these forums.
Nothing more.....

Clay
_____
Dr. P. Clay Sherrod
Arkansas Sky Observatories
MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
MPC H43 - Conway West
http://www.arksky.org/

----- Original Message -----
From: "Scott Loucks" <lamp_obs@...>
To: <mpml@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, May 12, 2012 3:43 PM
Subject: RE: {MPML} May 20, 2012 Annular Eclipse broadcast LIVE from Area
51's Black Mailbox!


>
> Well, if not should have been - liked it!
>
> To: mpml@yahoogroups.com
> From: drclay@...
> Date: Sat, 12 May 2012 15:34:02 -0500
> Subject: Re: {MPML} May 20, 2012 Annular Eclipse broadcast LIVE from Area
> 51's Black Mailbox!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>      Curious if this "YouTube" announcement was approved by the minor
> planet list
>
> moderator?
>
>
>
> Dr. Clay
>
> _____
>
> Arkansas Sky Observatories
>
> MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
>
> MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
>
> MPC H43 - Conway West
>
> http://www.arksky.org/
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>
> From: "Scotty Degenhardt" <scotty@...>
>
> To: "Scotty Degenhardt" <scotty@...>
>
> Sent: Saturday, May 12, 2012 3:28 PM
>
> Subject: {MPML} May 20, 2012 Annular Eclipse broadcast LIVE from Area 51's
>
> Black Mailbox!
>
>
>
>> IMMEDIATE PRESS RELEASE
>
>>
>
>>
>
>>     YOUTUBE ANNOUNCEMENT: http://youtu.be/nI18UeeKNVw
>
>>
>
>> EVENT: May 20, 2012 Annular Solar Eclipse
>
>>
>
>> LIVE on Scotty's Sky:http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
>
>>
>
>> LOCATION: From Area 51's Black Mailbox
>
>>
>
>>
>
>> EQUIPMENT: Solar filter with orange rendering of sun, color video
>
>> through an Orion 80mm ST refractor, clock driven, live streaming video
>
>> and audio on Verizon 3G over iPhone, wireless audio by Lectrosonics.
>
>>
>
>>
>
>> Broadcast begins PROMPTLY
>
>>
>
>> With a tour of the equipment @
>
>>
>
>> 5:10 PM PDT
>
>>
>
>> 6:10 PM MDT
>
>>
>
>> 7:10 PM CDT
>
>>
>
>> 8:10 PM EDT
>
>>
>
>> Eclipse START
>
>>
>
>> 5:21 PM PDT
>
>>
>
>> 6:21 PM MDT
>
>>
>
>> 7:21 PM CDT
>
>>
>
>> 8:21 PM EDT
>
>>
>
>> Annular START about
>
>>
>
>> (depending on what location I am at)
>
>>
>
>> 6:32 PM PDT
>
>>
>
>> 7:32 PM MDT
>
>>
>
>> 8:32 PM CDT
>
>>
>
>> 9:32 PM EDT
>
>>
>
>>
>
>> Join us LIVE on Ustream for on hoot of a daytime Star Party!!!
>
>>
>
>> Scotty
>
>>
>
>> --
>
>> Santa Fe, NM  USA
>
>> http://scottysmightymini.com/
>
>> http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
>
>> scotty@...
>
>> 888-687-5444 toll free to my cell
>
>>
>
>>
>
>>
>
>> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>>
>
>>
>
>>
>
>> ------------------------------------
>
>>
>
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
>>
>
>> Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with
>
>> the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the
>
>> source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>>
>
>>
>
>>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with
> the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the
> source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>

Clay is correct in that the post is off topic. Though I do allow occasional off
topic posts that are of interest to list members I do urge every to keep on
topic and stay with asteroids and comets.

Thanks

Richard A. Kowalski
Catalina Sky Survey
-Mobile on my iPhone

On May 12, 2012, at 1:46 PM, Scotty Degenhardt <scotty@...>
wrote:

> Dr. Clay,
>
> I assume you jest, right? The whole thing is a tongue in cheek joke, but
> the broadcast is serious to enable those not in the path to see it. I
> broadcast all of my occultation expeditions live. This one fits that
> category.
>
> If I have run afoul of this lists rules just ignore the message...
>
> Scotty
>
> Santa Fe, NM  USA
> http://scottysmightymini.com/
> http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
> scotty@...
>
> Santa Fe, NM  USA
> http://scottysmightymini.com/
> http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
> scotty@...
> 888-687-5444 toll free to my cell
>
>
> On 5/12/2012 2:34 PM, P. Clay Sherrod wrote:
>>
>> Curious if this "YouTube" announcement was approved by the minor
>> planet list
>> moderator?
>>
>> Dr. Clay
>> _____
>> Arkansas Sky Observatories
>> MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
>> MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
>> MPC H43 - Conway West
>> http://www.arksky.org/
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Scotty Degenhardt" <scotty@...
>> <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>>
>> To: "Scotty Degenhardt" <scotty@...
>> <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>>
>> Sent: Saturday, May 12, 2012 3:28 PM
>> Subject: {MPML} May 20, 2012 Annular Eclipse broadcast LIVE from Area
>> 51's
>> Black Mailbox!
>>
>>> IMMEDIATE PRESS RELEASE
>>>
>>>
>>> YOUTUBE ANNOUNCEMENT: http://youtu.be/nI18UeeKNVw
>>>
>>> EVENT: May 20, 2012 Annular Solar Eclipse
>>>
>>> LIVE on Scotty's Sky:http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
>>>
>>> LOCATION: From Area 51's Black Mailbox
>>>
>>>
>>> EQUIPMENT: Solar filter with orange rendering of sun, color video
>>> through an Orion 80mm ST refractor, clock driven, live streaming video
>>> and audio on Verizon 3G over iPhone, wireless audio by Lectrosonics.
>>>
>>>
>>> Broadcast begins PROMPTLY
>>>
>>> With a tour of the equipment @
>>>
>>> 5:10 PM PDT
>>>
>>> 6:10 PM MDT
>>>
>>> 7:10 PM CDT
>>>
>>> 8:10 PM EDT
>>>
>>> Eclipse START
>>>
>>> 5:21 PM PDT
>>>
>>> 6:21 PM MDT
>>>
>>> 7:21 PM CDT
>>>
>>> 8:21 PM EDT
>>>
>>> Annular START about
>>>
>>> (depending on what location I am at)
>>>
>>> 6:32 PM PDT
>>>
>>> 7:32 PM MDT
>>>
>>> 8:32 PM CDT
>>>
>>> 9:32 PM EDT
>>>
>>>
>>> Join us LIVE on Ustream for on hoot of a daytime Star Party!!!
>>>
>>> Scotty
>>>
>>> --
>>> Santa Fe, NM USA
>>> http://scottysmightymini.com/
>>> http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
>>> scotty@... <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>
>>> 888-687-5444 toll free to my cell
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> ------------------------------------
>>>
>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>>
>>> Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with
>>> the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the
>>> source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with the
stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the source of the
information.Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>

Richard et. al,

My apologies. My assumption that this eclipse would be of interest to
all astronomy enthusiasts was incorrect. I have broadcasts many an
asteroid occultation expedition live in the past and just assumed this
would be equal in interest. I stand corrected.

Scotty

Santa Fe, NM  USA
http://scottysmightymini.com/
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
scotty@...
888-687-5444 toll free to my cell


On 5/12/2012 8:04 PM, Richard A. Kowalski wrote:
>
> Clay is correct in that the post is off topic. Though I do allow
> occasional off topic posts that are of interest to list members I do
> urge every to keep on topic and stay with asteroids and comets.
>
> Thanks
>
> Richard A. Kowalski
> Catalina Sky Survey
> -Mobile on my iPhone
>
> On May 12, 2012, at 1:46 PM, Scotty Degenhardt
> <scotty@... <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>>
> wrote:
>
> > Dr. Clay,
> >
> > I assume you jest, right? The whole thing is a tongue in cheek joke,
> but
> > the broadcast is serious to enable those not in the path to see it. I
> > broadcast all of my occultation expeditions live. This one fits that
> > category.
> >
> > If I have run afoul of this lists rules just ignore the message...
> >
> > Scotty
> >
> > Santa Fe, NM USA
> > http://scottysmightymini.com/
> > http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
> > scotty@... <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>
> >
> > Santa Fe, NM USA
> > http://scottysmightymini.com/
> > http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
> > scotty@... <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>
> > 888-687-5444 toll free to my cell
> >
> >
> > On 5/12/2012 2:34 PM, P. Clay Sherrod wrote:
> >>
> >> Curious if this "YouTube" announcement was approved by the minor
> >> planet list
> >> moderator?
> >>
> >> Dr. Clay
> >> _____
> >> Arkansas Sky Observatories
> >> MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
> >> MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
> >> MPC H43 - Conway West
> >> http://www.arksky.org/
> >>
> >> ----- Original Message -----
> >> From: "Scotty Degenhardt" <scotty@...
> <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>
> >> <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>>
> >> To: "Scotty Degenhardt" <scotty@...
> <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>
> >> <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>>
> >> Sent: Saturday, May 12, 2012 3:28 PM
> >> Subject: {MPML} May 20, 2012 Annular Eclipse broadcast LIVE from Area
> >> 51's
> >> Black Mailbox!
> >>
> >>> IMMEDIATE PRESS RELEASE
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> YOUTUBE ANNOUNCEMENT: http://youtu.be/nI18UeeKNVw
> >>>
> >>> EVENT: May 20, 2012 Annular Solar Eclipse
> >>>
> >>> LIVE on Scotty's Sky:http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
> >>>
> >>> LOCATION: From Area 51's Black Mailbox
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> EQUIPMENT: Solar filter with orange rendering of sun, color video
> >>> through an Orion 80mm ST refractor, clock driven, live streaming video
> >>> and audio on Verizon 3G over iPhone, wireless audio by Lectrosonics.
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> Broadcast begins PROMPTLY
> >>>
> >>> With a tour of the equipment @
> >>>
> >>> 5:10 PM PDT
> >>>
> >>> 6:10 PM MDT
> >>>
> >>> 7:10 PM CDT
> >>>
> >>> 8:10 PM EDT
> >>>
> >>> Eclipse START
> >>>
> >>> 5:21 PM PDT
> >>>
> >>> 6:21 PM MDT
> >>>
> >>> 7:21 PM CDT
> >>>
> >>> 8:21 PM EDT
> >>>
> >>> Annular START about
> >>>
> >>> (depending on what location I am at)
> >>>
> >>> 6:32 PM PDT
> >>>
> >>> 7:32 PM MDT
> >>>
> >>> 8:32 PM CDT
> >>>
> >>> 9:32 PM EDT
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> Join us LIVE on Ustream for on hoot of a daytime Star Party!!!
> >>>
> >>> Scotty
> >>>
> >>> --
> >>> Santa Fe, NM USA
> >>> http://scottysmightymini.com/
> >>> http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
> >>> scotty@...
> <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>
> <mailto:scotty%40scottysmightymini.com>
> >>> 888-687-5444 toll free to my cell
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> ------------------------------------
> >>>
> >>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> >>>
> >>> Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used,
> with
> >>> the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the
> >>> source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>
> >>
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------------------------------
> >
> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> >
> > Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used,
> with the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as
> the source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
>
>


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

> I have broadcasts many an
> asteroid occultation expedition live in the past and just assumed this
> would be equal in interest. I stand corrected.

Since in certain quarters there doesn't seem to be a distinction between
planets, protoplanets and asteroids anymore (hint hint), a partial
occultation of the Sun by Luna does probably qualify for MPML these days.
:-) Anyway, Scotty's is the first firm announcement of a webcast of the
ASE from the U.S. (had seen only announcements for Japan so far), so I'm
grateful for his details. And since the asteroid *occultation* and ASE
communities are intertwined, even in normal times the announcement was
only 99% OT (but better suited for eclipse as well as occultation mailing
lists, of course).

Dan

This is all fine and good, but it is my understanding that all off topic
posts are to receive an okay from the moderators and then they are posted BY
the moderator with his comments as to pertinence of content.  The nature of
the posting was such that it had obviously not been run by the moderator
prior to posting.

The point is simple:  if everyone decided to post "something that could be
in some small way be proved to be relevant" to the topic of this forum
without some restrictions or at least the approval of the group owner, we
would be overwhelmed with automobile ads (they do eclipse one-another on the
highways), prescription medicines (which of course all allow things which
orbit through our bodies to pass more predictably) furniture specials (for
the chairs and desks on which we dwell to read our MPML postings).....etc.,
etc.

I am quite glad that the broadcast is being made....probably will tune in;
but the post should have been run by Richard first.

Clay
_____
Dr. P. Clay Sherrod
Arkansas Sky Observatories
MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
MPC H43 - Conway West
http://www.arksky.org/

----- Original Message -----
From: <dfischer@...>
To: <mpml@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2012 6:02 AM
Subject: Re: {MPML} May 20, 2012 Annular Eclipse broadcast LIVE from Area
51's Black Mailbox!


>> I have broadcasts many an
>> asteroid occultation expedition live in the past and just assumed this
>> would be equal in interest. I stand corrected.
>
> Since in certain quarters there doesn't seem to be a distinction between
> planets, protoplanets and asteroids anymore (hint hint), a partial
> occultation of the Sun by Luna does probably qualify for MPML these days.
> :-) Anyway, Scotty's is the first firm announcement of a webcast of the
> ASE from the U.S. (had seen only announcements for Japan so far), so I'm
> grateful for his details. And since the asteroid *occultation* and ASE
> communities are intertwined, even in normal times the announcement was
> only 99% OT (but better suited for eclipse as well as occultation mailing
> lists, of course).
>
> Dan
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with
> the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the
> source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>

Under a year ago there was a similar issue. I posted part of the welcome message
that gets sent to each new subscriber. I'm away from my computer so can't post
the exact text, but I can refer you to the last post about this.

http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/mpml/message/23166

In it you will find what is on and off topic for this list.

If for any reason you are unsure about a post being on topic, feel free to send
it to me first for review.

Thanks

Richard A. Kowalski
-Mobile on my iPhone

Hello,



I have a question about the observation time of a known comet each
observation night. How long must this be in total minutes or hours, when
achieving a good astrometry and photometric measurements?

For the moment I observe known comets for a period of 30 minutes. Is this
enough? Maybe less of more time is needed?



---------------------------------------------------



Best Regards,



Mr. Pieter-Jan Dekelver

Maasmechelen, Belgium

pieterjan.dekelver@...

www.astronomie.be/pieterjan.dekelver





[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

I believe that I have read a reference from MPC that suggests and interval
of about five minutes between each observation.
In reality, I think that the proper motion of the object on any given night
would suggest that the time may vary:  a faster moving asteroid or comet
might be measured at a shorter interval than one moving quite slow over the
same time period.  For an object that has very little displacement over
time, observing in too short intervals will sometimes result in confusing
and conflicting actual direction and speed of motion simply from the
observer's residual from one measurement to another.

Clay
_____
Dr. P. Clay Sherrod
Arkansas Sky Observatories
MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
MPC H43 - Conway West
http://www.arksky.org/

----- Original Message -----
From: "Pieter-Jan Dekelver" <pieterjan.dekelver@...>
To: <mpml@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2012 6:47 PM
Subject: {MPML} Correct overal astrometry and photometrie time of a comet


> Hello,
>
>
>
> I have a question about the observation time of a known comet each
> observation night. How long must this be in total minutes or hours, when
> achieving a good astrometry and photometric measurements?
>
> For the moment I observe known comets for a period of 30 minutes. Is this
> enough? Maybe less of more time is needed?
>
>
>
> ---------------------------------------------------
>
>
>
> Best Regards,
>
>
>
> Mr. Pieter-Jan Dekelver
>
> Maasmechelen, Belgium
>
> pieterjan.dekelver@...
>
> www.astronomie.be/pieterjan.dekelver
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with
> the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the
> source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>

Correction (fast fingers are not happy fingers tonight....)
"....that suggests and interval ...."
should read:
"....that suggests an interval ....."

Clay
_____
Dr. P. Clay Sherrod
Arkansas Sky Observatories
MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
MPC H43 - Conway West
http://www.arksky.org/



----- Original Message -----
From: "P. Clay Sherrod" <drclay@...>
To: <mpml@yahoogroups.com>; "Pieter-Jan Dekelver"
<pieterjan.dekelver@...>
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2012 9:35 PM
Subject: Re: {MPML} Correct overal astrometry and photometrie time of a
comet


>I believe that I have read a reference from MPC that suggests and interval
>of about five minutes between each observation.
> In reality, I think that the proper motion of the object on any given
> night would suggest that the time may vary:  a faster moving asteroid or
> comet might be measured at a shorter interval than one moving quite slow
> over the same time period.  For an object that has very little
> displacement over time, observing in too short intervals will sometimes
> result in confusing and conflicting actual direction and speed of motion
> simply from the observer's residual from one measurement to another.
>
> Clay
> _____
> Dr. P. Clay Sherrod
> Arkansas Sky Observatories
> MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
> MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
> MPC H43 - Conway West
> http://www.arksky.org/
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Pieter-Jan Dekelver" <pieterjan.dekelver@...>
> To: <mpml@yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2012 6:47 PM
> Subject: {MPML} Correct overal astrometry and photometrie time of a comet
>
>
>> Hello,
>>
>>
>>
>> I have a question about the observation time of a known comet each
>> observation night. How long must this be in total minutes or hours, when
>> achieving a good astrometry and photometric measurements?
>>
>> For the moment I observe known comets for a period of 30 minutes. Is this
>> enough? Maybe less of more time is needed?
>>
>>
>>
>> ---------------------------------------------------
>>
>>
>>
>> Best Regards,
>>
>>
>>
>> Mr. Pieter-Jan Dekelver
>>
>> Maasmechelen, Belgium
>>
>> pieterjan.dekelver@...
>>
>> www.astronomie.be/pieterjan.dekelver
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>>
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------------
>>
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>
>> Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with
>> the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the
>> source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
>>
>>
>>
>

Quoting the MPC "Notes on how to begin your own astrometric program"
(http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/info/Astrometry.html#how):

"It is most efficient to make two or three observations (over a period of an
hour or so) per object per night. Observations of specific objects are best made
on pairs of nearby nights as the accuracy of isolated single-night observations
can be difficult to judge. By observing on pairs of nights any ambiguity is
removed.
You should not make only one observation of each object per night. Neither
should you make many more than three observations per objects per night--it is a
waste of your time and rarely helps the orbit solution.

However, to make observations of a new discovery in groups many hours apart on a
single night can be useful, particularly in the case of an newly-discovered
object that may be close to the earth.

For multi-opposition objects the preferable regimen of observing is observations
on pairs on night in each dark run around each opposition until the object is
numbered."

This is equally true for comets and minor planets. It's important that in your
stacking, you can reach a good S/N.
Making observations with a short time span (5-minutes or so, as mentioned
previously) is dangerous, since you might introduce a bias in the astrometric
database of a given object.

Bye,
Giovanni Sostero (MPC code B90)

Dear MPML users,
I announce some important changes and improvements we @NEODyS and
@AstDyS did during the last months. As you may know, the recent hardware
development goes toward multi-core architectures which can increase
enormously the efficiency and reliability of modern computers. Some
months ago two identical 24-cores servers replaced the machines where
the NEODyS and AstDyS systems were running. In order to increase the
efficiency and the prompt response of our services, we spent the last
months implementing the parallelization for our fortran and perl
routines. This was a big step of our evolution and we hope you all can
benefit of it.
AstDyS:
the most CPU-consuming process for AstDyS is the monthly update, which
happens every month as soon as the MPC releases the monthly batch of
observations. This is a process that usually lasted almost two days,
with many hours of down time. We now parallelized some of the processes,
but still there are some processes which have a huge I/O activities and
therefore we are limited not by the CPU clock or number of cores, but by
the hard disk velocity. Anyway, now the process lasts about 24 hours and
in case of failures it is faster to recover.

NEODyS:
here some experiments of parallelization were already present when the
twin service in Valladolid was active. Every clomon2 run for every
object was launched in a multi-core machine. This was working fine for
regular objects, even if the usual time for a clomon2 run was about 2-3
hours, but it was largely inefficient for some special cases when there
are many close encounters. See for example 2012DA14. Before the recent
implementation it took about 17 hours to complete the run!
Now the parallelization is done not object by object, but inside the
clomon2 process. Now a regular object takes less than 10 minutes to
finish the analysis, while the most challenging ones, like 2012DA14,
take less than 3 hours.
We also implemented some perl scripts that increased our level of
automation. Now from the release of the DOU-MPEC it takes usually less
than one hour to update the system and perform all the daily clomon2 runs.
We hope that you appreciate our efforts.

Best regards,

Fabrizio Bernardi from the NEODyS team
--

spacedys

*FABRIZIO BERNARDI*
*Chief Executive Officier*
e-mail: bernardi@... <mailto:bernardi@...>
cell. +39 345.504.0077
*Space Dynamics Services S.r.l.*
Via Mario Giuntini 63 - 56023 Navacchio di Cascina (PI) - Italy
tel. +39 050.751.9607 - fax +39 050.754.268
e-mail: info@... <mailto:info@...>
web: www.spacedys.com <http://www.spacedys.com>
P.IVA/C.F. IT 02009070505


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Amateur astronomers boost ESA’s asteroid hunt

A partnership with the UK’s Faulkes Telescope Project promises to boost the
Agency’s space hazards research while helping students to discover potentially
dangerous space rocks.

http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEM6YTTWT1H_index_0.html

patrick

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2012-138

NASA Survey Counts Potentially Hazardous Asteroids
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
May 16, 2012

PASADENA, Calif. -- Observations from NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey
Explorer (WISE) have led to the best assessment yet of our solar
system's population of potentially hazardous asteroids. The results
reveal new information about their total numbers, origins and the
possible dangers they may pose.

Potentially hazardous asteroids, or PHAs, are a subset of the larger
group of near-Earth asteroids. The PHAs have the closest orbits to
Earth's, coming within five million miles (about eight million
kilometers), and they are big enough to survive passing through Earth's
atmosphere and cause damage on a regional, or greater, scale.

The new results come from the asteroid-hunting portion of the WISE
mission, called NEOWISE. The project sampled 107 PHAs to make
predictions about the entire population as a whole. Findings indicate
there are roughly 4,700 PHAs, plus or minus 1,500, with diameters larger
than 330 feet (about 100 meters). So far, an estimated 20 to 30 percent
of these objects have been found.

While previous estimates of PHAs predicted similar numbers, they were
rough approximations. NEOWISE has generated a more credible estimate of
the objects' total numbers and sizes.

"The NEOWISE analysis shows us we've made a good start at finding those
objects that truly represent an impact hazard to Earth," said Lindley
Johnson, program executive for the Near-Earth Object Observation Program
at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "But we've many more to find, and it
will take a concerted effort during the next couple of decades to find
all of them that could do serious damage or be a mission destination in
the future."

The new analysis also suggests that about twice as many PHAs as
previously thought are likely to reside in "lower-inclination" orbits,
which are more aligned with the plane of Earth's orbit. In addition,
these lower-inclination objects appear to be somewhat brighter and
smaller than the other near-Earth asteroids that spend more time far
away from Earth. A possible explanation is that many of the PHAs may
have originated from a collision between two asteroids in the main belt
lying between Mars and Jupiter. A larger body with a low-inclination
orbit may have broken up in the main belt, causing some of the fragments
to drift into orbits closer to Earth and eventually become PHAs.

Asteroids with lower-inclination orbits would be more likely to
encounter Earth and would be easier to reach. The results therefore
suggest more near-Earth objects might be available for future robotic or
human missions.

"NASA's NEOWISE project, which wasn't originally planned as part of
WISE, has turned out to be a huge bonus," said Amy Mainzer, NEOWISE
principal investigator, at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena,
Calif. "Everything we can learn about these objects helps us understand
their origins and fate. Our team was surprised to find the overabundance
of low-inclination PHAs. Because they will tend to make more close
approaches to Earth, these targets can provide the best opportunities
for the next generation of human and robotic exploration."

The discovery that many PHAs tend to be bright says something about
their composition; they are more likely to be either stony, like
granite, or metallic. This type of information is important in assessing
the space rocks' potential hazards to Earth. The composition of the
bodies would affect how quickly they might burn up in our atmosphere if
an encounter were to take place.

The WISE spacecraft scanned the sky twice in infrared light before
entering hibernation mode in early 2011. It catalogued hundreds of
millions of objects, including super-luminous galaxies, stellar
nurseries and closer-to-home asteroids. The NEOWISE project snapped
images of about 600 near-Earth asteroids, about 135 of which were new
discoveries. Because the telescope detected the infrared light, or heat,
of asteroids, it was able to pick up both light and dark objects,
resulting in a more representative look at the entire population. The
infrared data allowed astronomers to make good measurements of the
asteroids' diameters and, when combined with visible light observations,
how much sunlight they reflect.

JPL manages, and operates the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer for
NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington. The principal
investigator, Edward Wright, is at UCLA. The mission was competitively
selected under NASA's Explorers Program managed by the Goddard Space
Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. The science instrument was built by the
Space Dynamics Laboratory, Logan, Utah, and the spacecraft was built by
Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp., Boulder, Colo. Science operations
and data processing and archiving take place at the Infrared Processing
and Analysis Center at the California Institute of Technology in
Pasadena. Caltech manages JPL for NASA.

More information is online at http://www.nasa.gov/wise and
http://jpl.nasa.gov/wise .

Whitney Clavin 818-354-4673
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
whitney.clavin@...

J.D. Harrington 202-358-5241
Headquarters, Washington
j.d.harrington@...

2012-138

Hi,

On which journal are the findings going appear?

Regards,
Pasquale

--
Pasquale Tricarico, Ph.D.
Planetary Science Institute
http://orbit.psi.edu/~tricaric



On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 2:59 PM, Ron Baalke <baalke@...> wrote:
>
>
>
>
> http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2012-138
>
> NASA Survey Counts Potentially Hazardous Asteroids
> Jet Propulsion Laboratory
> May 16, 2012
>
> PASADENA, Calif. -- Observations from NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey
> Explorer (WISE) have led to the best assessment yet of our solar
> system's population of potentially hazardous asteroids. The results
> reveal new information about their total numbers, origins and the
> possible dangers they may pose.
>
> Potentially hazardous asteroids, or PHAs, are a subset of the larger
> group of near-Earth asteroids. The PHAs have the closest orbits to
> Earth's, coming within five million miles (about eight million
> kilometers), and they are big enough to survive passing through Earth's
> atmosphere and cause damage on a regional, or greater, scale.
>
> The new results come from the asteroid-hunting portion of the WISE
> mission, called NEOWISE. The project sampled 107 PHAs to make
> predictions about the entire population as a whole. Findings indicate
> there are roughly 4,700 PHAs, plus or minus 1,500, with diameters larger
> than 330 feet (about 100 meters). So far, an estimated 20 to 30 percent
> of these objects have been found.
>
> While previous estimates of PHAs predicted similar numbers, they were
> rough approximations. NEOWISE has generated a more credible estimate of
> the objects' total numbers and sizes.
>
> "The NEOWISE analysis shows us we've made a good start at finding those
> objects that truly represent an impact hazard to Earth," said Lindley
> Johnson, program executive for the Near-Earth Object Observation Program
> at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "But we've many more to find, and it
> will take a concerted effort during the next couple of decades to find
> all of them that could do serious damage or be a mission destination in
> the future."
>
> The new analysis also suggests that about twice as many PHAs as
> previously thought are likely to reside in "lower-inclination" orbits,
> which are more aligned with the plane of Earth's orbit. In addition,
> these lower-inclination objects appear to be somewhat brighter and
> smaller than the other near-Earth asteroids that spend more time far
> away from Earth. A possible explanation is that many of the PHAs may
> have originated from a collision between two asteroids in the main belt
> lying between Mars and Jupiter. A larger body with a low-inclination
> orbit may have broken up in the main belt, causing some of the fragments
> to drift into orbits closer to Earth and eventually become PHAs.
>
> Asteroids with lower-inclination orbits would be more likely to
> encounter Earth and would be easier to reach. The results therefore
> suggest more near-Earth objects might be available for future robotic or
> human missions.
>
> "NASA's NEOWISE project, which wasn't originally planned as part of
> WISE, has turned out to be a huge bonus," said Amy Mainzer, NEOWISE
> principal investigator, at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena,
> Calif. "Everything we can learn about these objects helps us understand
> their origins and fate. Our team was surprised to find the overabundance
> of low-inclination PHAs. Because they will tend to make more close
> approaches to Earth, these targets can provide the best opportunities
> for the next generation of human and robotic exploration."
>
> The discovery that many PHAs tend to be bright says something about
> their composition; they are more likely to be either stony, like
> granite, or metallic. This type of information is important in assessing
> the space rocks' potential hazards to Earth. The composition of the
> bodies would affect how quickly they might burn up in our atmosphere if
> an encounter were to take place.
>
> The WISE spacecraft scanned the sky twice in infrared light before
> entering hibernation mode in early 2011. It catalogued hundreds of
> millions of objects, including super-luminous galaxies, stellar
> nurseries and closer-to-home asteroids. The NEOWISE project snapped
> images of about 600 near-Earth asteroids, about 135 of which were new
> discoveries. Because the telescope detected the infrared light, or heat,
> of asteroids, it was able to pick up both light and dark objects,
> resulting in a more representative look at the entire population. The
> infrared data allowed astronomers to make good measurements of the
> asteroids' diameters and, when combined with visible light observations,
> how much sunlight they reflect.
>
> JPL manages, and operates the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer for
> NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington. The principal
> investigator, Edward Wright, is at UCLA. The mission was competitively
> selected under NASA's Explorers Program managed by the Goddard Space
> Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. The science instrument was built by the
> Space Dynamics Laboratory, Logan, Utah, and the spacecraft was built by
> Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp., Boulder, Colo. Science operations
> and data processing and archiving take place at the Infrared Processing
> and Analysis Center at the California Institute of Technology in
> Pasadena. Caltech manages JPL for NASA.
>
> More information is online at http://www.nasa.gov/wise and
> http://jpl.nasa.gov/wise .
>
> Whitney Clavin 818-354-4673
> Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
> whitney.clavin@...
>
> J.D. Harrington 202-358-5241
> Headquarters, Washington
> j.d.harrington@...
>
> 2012-138
>
>

I also would like to know where the details of this study might be found.
In particular, I would like to know the basis of the assumption:

".....The project sampled 107 PHAs to make
> predictions about the entire population as a whole. Findings indicate
> there are roughly 4,700 PHAs, plus or minus 1,500, with diameters larger
> than 330 feet (about 100 meters). So far, an estimated 20 to 30 percent
> of these objects have been found.
....."

Where is the 4,700 number coming from and how do we "know that"?  From that,
how can we possibly know if "20 to 30 percent" of all 330 foot PHAs have
been found?  We cannot assign numbers - sizes nor quantities - of objects
that have yet to be discovered.  One program's short term results cannot be
used as a basis for quantitative projections.

Speculating on the total number of undiscovered NEOs based on the number
already found seems to me ludicrous and quite unscientific.

Clay
_____
Dr. P. Clay Sherrod
Arkansas Sky Observatories
MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
MPC H43 - Conway West
http://www.arksky.org/

----- Original Message -----
From: "Pasquale Tricarico" <tricaric@...>
To: "Ron Baalke" <baalke@...>
Cc: "Minor Planet Mailing List" <mpml@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, May 16, 2012 5:43 PM
Subject: Re: {MPML} NASA Survey Counts Potentially Hazardous Asteroids
(WISE)


> Hi,
>
> On which journal are the findings going appear?
>
> Regards,
> Pasquale
>
> --
> Pasquale Tricarico, Ph.D.
> Planetary Science Institute
> http://orbit.psi.edu/~tricaric
>
>
>
> On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 2:59 PM, Ron Baalke <baalke@...>
> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2012-138
>>
>> NASA Survey Counts Potentially Hazardous Asteroids
>> Jet Propulsion Laboratory
>> May 16, 2012
>>
>> PASADENA, Calif. -- Observations from NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey
>> Explorer (WISE) have led to the best assessment yet of our solar
>> system's population of potentially hazardous asteroids. The results
>> reveal new information about their total numbers, origins and the
>> possible dangers they may pose.
>>
>> Potentially hazardous asteroids, or PHAs, are a subset of the larger
>> group of near-Earth asteroids. The PHAs have the closest orbits to
>> Earth's, coming within five million miles (about eight million
>> kilometers), and they are big enough to survive passing through Earth's
>> atmosphere and cause damage on a regional, or greater, scale.
>>
>> The new results come from the asteroid-hunting portion of the WISE
>> mission, called NEOWISE. The project sampled 107 PHAs to make
>> predictions about the entire population as a whole. Findings indicate
>> there are roughly 4,700 PHAs, plus or minus 1,500, with diameters larger
>> than 330 feet (about 100 meters). So far, an estimated 20 to 30 percent
>> of these objects have been found.
>>
>> While previous estimates of PHAs predicted similar numbers, they were
>> rough approximations. NEOWISE has generated a more credible estimate of
>> the objects' total numbers and sizes.
>>
>> "The NEOWISE analysis shows us we've made a good start at finding those
>> objects that truly represent an impact hazard to Earth," said Lindley
>> Johnson, program executive for the Near-Earth Object Observation Program
>> at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "But we've many more to find, and it
>> will take a concerted effort during the next couple of decades to find
>> all of them that could do serious damage or be a mission destination in
>> the future."
>>
>> The new analysis also suggests that about twice as many PHAs as
>> previously thought are likely to reside in "lower-inclination" orbits,
>> which are more aligned with the plane of Earth's orbit. In addition,
>> these lower-inclination objects appear to be somewhat brighter and
>> smaller than the other near-Earth asteroids that spend more time far
>> away from Earth. A possible explanation is that many of the PHAs may
>> have originated from a collision between two asteroids in the main belt
>> lying between Mars and Jupiter. A larger body with a low-inclination
>> orbit may have broken up in the main belt, causing some of the fragments
>> to drift into orbits closer to Earth and eventually become PHAs.
>>
>> Asteroids with lower-inclination orbits would be more likely to
>> encounter Earth and would be easier to reach. The results therefore
>> suggest more near-Earth objects might be available for future robotic or
>> human missions.
>>
>> "NASA's NEOWISE project, which wasn't originally planned as part of
>> WISE, has turned out to be a huge bonus," said Amy Mainzer, NEOWISE
>> principal investigator, at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena,
>> Calif. "Everything we can learn about these objects helps us understand
>> their origins and fate. Our team was surprised to find the overabundance
>> of low-inclination PHAs. Because they will tend to make more close
>> approaches to Earth, these targets can provide the best opportunities
>> for the next generation of human and robotic exploration."
>>
>> The discovery that many PHAs tend to be bright says something about
>> their composition; they are more likely to be either stony, like
>> granite, or metallic. This type of information is important in assessing
>> the space rocks' potential hazards to Earth. The composition of the
>> bodies would affect how quickly they might burn up in our atmosphere if
>> an encounter were to take place.
>>
>> The WISE spacecraft scanned the sky twice in infrared light before
>> entering hibernation mode in early 2011. It catalogued hundreds of
>> millions of objects, including super-luminous galaxies, stellar
>> nurseries and closer-to-home asteroids. The NEOWISE project snapped
>> images of about 600 near-Earth asteroids, about 135 of which were new
>> discoveries. Because the telescope detected the infrared light, or heat,
>> of asteroids, it was able to pick up both light and dark objects,
>> resulting in a more representative look at the entire population. The
>> infrared data allowed astronomers to make good measurements of the
>> asteroids' diameters and, when combined with visible light observations,
>> how much sunlight they reflect.
>>
>> JPL manages, and operates the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer for
>> NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington. The principal
>> investigator, Edward Wright, is at UCLA. The mission was competitively
>> selected under NASA's Explorers Program managed by the Goddard Space
>> Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. The science instrument was built by the
>> Space Dynamics Laboratory, Logan, Utah, and the spacecraft was built by
>> Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp., Boulder, Colo. Science operations
>> and data processing and archiving take place at the Infrared Processing
>> and Analysis Center at the California Institute of Technology in
>> Pasadena. Caltech manages JPL for NASA.
>>
>> More information is online at http://www.nasa.gov/wise and
>> http://jpl.nasa.gov/wise .
>>
>> Whitney Clavin 818-354-4673
>> Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
>> whitney.clavin@...
>>
>> J.D. Harrington 202-358-5241
>> Headquarters, Washington
>> j.d.harrington@...
>>
>> 2012-138
>>
>>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with
> the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the
> source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>

> I also would like to know where the details of this study might be found.

It seems to be an update to the paper http://arxiv.org/abs/1109.6400 -
this (and a preceding NASA press conference) was discussed in some detail
on MPML last September:
http://skyweek.wordpress.com/2011/09/29/neo-zensus-mit-wise-40-weniger-mit-1-km
links to some key postings.

The new numbers were announced about 22 hours ago in one of the first
sessions of the ACM in Japan: https://mobile.twitter.com/asrivkin
frantically tweeted that session and the many numbers provided there.
O.k., you wanted a paper and get just a few hectic tweets instead - but
still more than nothing ... :-)

Dan

The paper is Mainzer et al. (2012). I believe it is  in preparation for
Astrophysical Journal. Use the NASA ADS service to watch for its release, where
ever that might be.

   http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html

Search for Mainzer in 2012.

I'm at ACM where the findings were announced. If I can get something more
specific, I'll pass it along.


\Brian Warner, Palmer Divide Observatory

A member of the WISE team just advised me that the paper will be on AstroPH
(ArXiv) in a few hours. I'd say "tomorrow" but it's already tomorrow here. Just
keep an eye out.

\Brian Warner, Palmer Divide Observatory

Thanks very much for this Brian.....
I reality and to put credit where it is due, the concept of PHAs probability
based on actual numbers is something that was perhaps first introduced by
Timothy Spahr.  Certainly mathematically the projections can be valid.

My point was to provide a platform for discussion, not so much about the
actual numbers out there, which I think is still undecided by a long shot,
but to also remind everyone that we cannot base any such probability on ONE
set of data from one relatively new program; there are too many very fine
survey programs out there with tremendously skilled team members who have
been at this a long time.

Over time, the WISE program will reap rewards.....in the meantime, we cannot
ignore the success of other survey organizations who were providing
discoveries and data long before.

Clay
_____
Dr. P. Clay Sherrod
Arkansas Sky Observatories
MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
MPC H43 - Conway West
http://www.arksky.org/

----- Original Message -----
From: <Brian@...>
To: "Pasquale Tricarico" <tricaric@...>; "Ron Baalke"
<baalke@...>
Cc: "Minor Planet Mailing List" <mpml@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, May 16, 2012 6:14 PM
Subject: Re: {MPML} NASA Survey Counts Potentially Hazardous Asteroids
(WISE)


> The paper is Mainzer et al. (2012). I believe it is  in preparation for
> Astrophysical Journal. Use the NASA ADS service to watch for its release,
> where ever that might be.
>
>  http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html
>
> Search for Mainzer in 2012.
>
> I'm at ACM where the findings were announced. If I can get something more
> specific, I'll pass it along.
>
>
> \Brian Warner, Palmer Divide Observatory
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with
> the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the
> source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>

On Wed, 2012-05-16 at 17:48 -0500, P. Clay Sherrod wrote:

>
> Speculating on the total number of undiscovered NEOs based on the number
> already found seems to me ludicrous and quite unscientific.


      If you think you have a good handle on your detection limits,
it is entirely reasonable to make such statements.  The trick is
deciding that you _really_ know what's going on, and haven't
underestimated the uncertainties involved (the usual case)
by some factor.
      The press blurb says "roughly 4,700 PHAs, plus or minus 1,500",
which sounds like there is an estimate of the uncertainty,
amounting to 1/3 of the value itself (i.e. rather large).  So the
characterization "roughly" is well warranted.


\Brian

Good point.  As I explained privately a moment ago to a researcher of some
note, the probability could be skewed to the low end if we are not yet
familiar with possible large population clumpings or groupings of PHAs
objects, which may or may not exist.

I do like the "....plus or minus 1,500".  I suspect in time we will see both
the "4700" and the "1500" numbers go up remarkably higher.

Clay
_____
Dr. P. Clay Sherrod
Arkansas Sky Observatories
MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
MPC H43 - Conway West
http://www.arksky.org/

----- Original Message -----
From: "Brian Skiff" <bas@...>
To: "P. Clay Sherrod" <drclay@...>
Cc: "Minor Planet Mailing List" <mpml@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, May 16, 2012 6:58 PM
Subject: Re: {MPML} NASA Survey Counts Potentially Hazardous Asteroids(WISE)


>
> On Wed, 2012-05-16 at 17:48 -0500, P. Clay Sherrod wrote:
>
>>
>> Speculating on the total number of undiscovered NEOs based on the number
>> already found seems to me ludicrous and quite unscientific.
>
>
>     If you think you have a good handle on your detection limits,
> it is entirely reasonable to make such statements.  The trick is
> deciding that you _really_ know what's going on, and haven't
> underestimated the uncertainties involved (the usual case)
> by some factor.
>     The press blurb says "roughly 4,700 PHAs, plus or minus 1,500",
> which sounds like there is an estimate of the uncertainty,
> amounting to 1/3 of the value itself (i.e. rather large).  So the
> characterization "roughly" is well warranted.
>
>
> \Brian
>
>

Thanks Brian, it's online now:

http://arxiv.org/abs/1205.3568

Pasquale

--
Pasquale Tricarico
Planetary Science Institute
http://orbit.psi.edu/~tricaric



On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 4:32 PM,  <brian@...> wrote:
> A member of the WISE team just advised me that the paper will be on AstroPH
(ArXiv) in a few hours. I'd say "tomorrow" but it's already tomorrow here. Just
keep an eye out.
>
> \Brian Warner, Palmer Divide Observatory
>
>

> Speculating on the total number of undiscovered NEOs based on the number
> already found seems to me ludicrous and quite unscientific.

In other words, you're claiming that it is ludicrous for Congress
to direct NASA to find 90 percent of the NEOs larger than 1 km
within 10 years, because we can't possibly know the number of
undiscovered NEOs based on the number already found and thus can't
compute that percentage???

Yet as the surveys have progressed, we've refined the number of
kilometer-sized and larger NEOs, from around 2000 back in the
days of Shoemaker's early estimates, to around 1000 now?

The only difference here is that the size threshold has been
moved from 1 km down to 100 m.  The techniques used to estimate
the size of the population are still valid.

> Over time, the WISE program will reap rewards.....in the meantime, we cannot
> ignore the success of other survey organizations who were providing
> discoveries and data long before.

It's not a matter of ignoring other surveys.  The WISE survey
is less biased by having observed the ENTIRE sky, not just the
portion north of -30 deg declination, for example, and by
observing at thermal wavelengths, which more directly measure
diameters.  Reflected light surveys are more susceptible to
assumptions about albedo.  Remember, going from 6 percent to
12 percent albedo is a huge factor of 2 for reflected light
observations, but less than a 10 percent effect for thermal
wavelengths (88 to 94 percent emission).  And WISE didn't
have to worry about clouds affecting the results.  Such
uniformity of sensitivity makes life much simpler.  A ground
survey would have to track the detection threshold of every
exposure (clouds, seeing, atmospheric extinction variations).

Not sure that I understand exactly here, but I DO think that it is indeed
ludicrous for Congress
to EXPECT NASA to find 90 percent of the NEOs larger than 1 km
within 10 years....

This simply points to bureaucracy rather than realism.  As soon as we have
"all the big ones" tallied and accounted for, we will be blasted by the one
we overlooked.

Clay
_____
Dr. P. Clay Sherrod
Arkansas Sky Observatories
MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
MPC H43 - Conway West
http://www.arksky.org/

----- Original Message -----
From: "Dave Tholen" <tholen@...>
To: <mpml@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, May 16, 2012 8:00 PM
Subject: Re: {MPML} NASA Survey Counts Potentially Hazardous Asteroids
(WISE)


>> Speculating on the total number of undiscovered NEOs based on the number
>> already found seems to me ludicrous and quite unscientific.
>
> In other words, you're claiming that it is ludicrous for Congress
> to direct NASA to find 90 percent of the NEOs larger than 1 km
> within 10 years, because we can't possibly know the number of
> undiscovered NEOs based on the number already found and thus can't
> compute that percentage???
>
> Yet as the surveys have progressed, we've refined the number of
> kilometer-sized and larger NEOs, from around 2000 back in the
> days of Shoemaker's early estimates, to around 1000 now?
>
> The only difference here is that the size threshold has been
> moved from 1 km down to 100 m.  The techniques used to estimate
> the size of the population are still valid.
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with
> the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the
> source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>

> Not sure that I understand exactly here, but I DO think that it is
> indeed ludicrous for Congress to EXPECT NASA to find 90 percent of
> the NEOs larger than 1 km within 10 years....

It's not a question of expectation.  It's a question of whether
it's unscientific to estimate the size of the unknown population.

Suppose, for example, that you look for NEOs and keep finding
nothing, night after night after night.  Are you saying that
that result tells you absolutely NOTHING about the population?

At the other extreme, suppose you find a new NEO in every exposure.
Does that result tell you absolutely NOTHING about the population?

You can simulate a survey and simulate a population, which allows
you to make predictions about the discovery rate of that survey.
If the actual discovery rate is quite different from the
expectations, then there is either something wrong with your
survey, or with your population estimates.  Assuming you
understand your survey's detection capabilities, who CAN reach
conclusions about the population.  People have been doing it
for decades.  Not at all unscientific.  Or ludicrous.

Dear colleagues,

We inform you that there will be a session dedicated to the exceptional
2011 Draconids meteor shower at the EPSC2012 in Madrid in September 2012.

On 8 October 2011 around the 20 UT, the Draconids displayed an
exceptional outburst, as predicted by several researcher teams. An
international observation campaign was organized for the event. It
involved two European research airplanes each carrying a dozen cameras,
as well as hundreds of ground-based observation stations. This session
will highlight the results of the campaign.

Additional information and abstract submission :
http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EPSC2012/session/11490

Deadline for abstract submission: May 23rd 2012

Jeremie Vaubaillon & co-convenors

Hello,



I observed several comets past few days:

You can find all information on my website:

www.astronomie.be/pieterjan.dekelver



COD X13

COM Long. 5 40 46.6 E, Lat. 50 56 30.1 N, Alt. 20m

CON Pieter-Jan Dekelver, Observatory Grömme, Heirstraat 496, Maasmechelen
3630, Belgium [pieterjan.dekelver@...]

OBS P-J Dekelver

MEA P-J Dekelver

TEL 0.20m f/4.5 Refl + CCD

ACK MPCReport file updated 2012.05.14 21:09:08

AC2 pieterjan.dekelver@...

NET UCAC-3

0029P        KC2012 05 13.91359 12 06 25.813-10 45 04.08         15.77N
X13

0029P        KC2012 05 13.91811 12 06 25.614-10 45 02.70         15.92N
X13

0029P         C2012 05 13.92150 12 06 25.479-10 45 00.19         15.91N
X13

0029P        KC2012 05 16.89081 12 05 57.719-10 39 16.38         15.44N
X13

0029P        KC2012 05 16.89759 12 05 57.641-10 39 16.19         15.51N
X13

0029P        KC2012 05 16.90663 12 05 57.609-10 39 15.70         15.47N
X13

     CK11F010 KC2012 05 13.00261 14 46 22.905+56 03 09.50         14.78N
X13

     CK11F010 KC2012 05 13.00938 14 46 22.295+56 03 07.15         14.79N
X13

     CK11F010 KC2012 05 13.01840 14 46 21.524+56 03 03.79         14.86N
X13

     CK11F010 KC2012 05 13.94743 14 45 02.879+55 57 23.88         14.83N
X13

     CK11F010 KC2012 05 13.95420 14 45 02.340+55 57 21.48         14.92N
X13

     CK11F010 KC2012 05 13.96322 14 45 01.558+55 57 18.38         14.88N
X13

     CK11F010 KC2012 05 16.98388 14 40 49.131+55 36 32.19         14.79N
X13

     CK11F010 KC2012 05 16.99066 14 40 48.542+55 36 29.12         14.79N
X13

     CK11F010 KC2012 05 16.99066 14 40 48.542+55 36 29.12         14.79N
X13

     CK11F010 KC2012 05 16.99968 14 40 47.796+55 36 25.02         14.81N
X13

     CK10S010 KC2012 05 14.01826 23 29 02.573+51 41 22.58         14.90N
X13

     CK10S010 KC2012 05 14.02503 23 29 02.557+51 41 24.96         14.90N
X13

     CK10S010 KC2012 05 14.03405 23 29 02.543+51 41 27.57         14.84N
X13

     CK10R010 KC2012 05 13.97968 15 24 37.496+07 35 58.51         16.89N
X13

     CK10R010 KC2012 05 13.98651 15 24 36.962+07 36 00.47         16.97N
X13

     CK10R010 KC2012 05 13.99566 15 24 36.250+07 36 02.06         16.59N
X13

     CK09P010 KC2012 05 13.88399 08 50 22.845+32 22 36.00         13.11N
X13

     CK09P010 KC2012 05 13.89369 08 50 22.958+32 22 22.40         12.92N
X13

     CK09P010 KC2012 05 13.90461 08 50 23.076+32 22 07.01         13.01N
X13

     CK09P010 KC2012 05 16.91913 08 51 04.570+31 13 33.26         13.02N
X13

     CK09P010 KC2012 05 16.92883 08 51 04.700+31 13 20.26         13.03N
X13

     CK09P010 KC2012 05 16.93974 08 51 04.876+31 13 05.35         13.06N
X13

     CK12C17H KC2012 05 16.95231 10 50 08.114+35 36 18.49         17.53N
X13

     CK12C17H KC2012 05 16.95908 10 50 08.209+35 36 17.88         17.71N
X13

     CK12C17H KC2012 05 16.96810 10 50 08.575+35 36 12.57         17.88N
X13

     CK06S030 KC2012 05 17.04765 17 11 15.158-12 52 47.70         14.06N
X13

     CK06S030 KC2012 05 17.05441 17 11 14.543-12 52 47.35         13.94N
X13

     CK06S030 KC2012 05 17.06343 17 11 13.739-12 52 46.70         13.97N
X13



----- end -----





COD X13

CON Pieter-Jan Dekelver, Observatory Grömme

CATALOG: USNO A2.0 / CMC-14 - BAND: R



                                    10x10  20x20  30x30  40x40  50x50  60x60
SNR   SB   COD

OBJECT        DATE       TIME        +/-    +/-    +/-    +/-    +/-    +/-
N  FWHM  CAT

------------  ---------- --------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
----  ----  ---

29P           13/05/2012 22:00:27  15.36  14.45  14.00  13.78  13.66  13.54
6.8  16.6  X13

29P           13/05/2012 22:00:27*  0.05   0.10   0.11   0.12   0.16   0.15
5   5.1  CMC

29P           16/05/2012 21:33:36  15.18  14.55  14.19  13.94  13.77  13.64
8.4  16.9  X13

29P           16/05/2012 21:33:36*  0.04   0.07   0.09   0.10   0.14   0.14
9   5.1  CMC

C/2009 P1     16/05/2012 22:18:05  12.76  11.94  11.53  11.24  11.02  10.83
17.8  17.1  X13

C/2009 P1     16/05/2012 22:18:05*  0.02   0.02   0.01   0.01   0.02   0.02
9   4.9  CMC

C/2011 F1     13/05/2012 00:14:35  14.81  14.03  13.71  13.54  13.45  13.39
12.8  18.3  X13

C/2011 F1     13/05/2012 00:14:35*  0.07   0.05   0.07   0.07   0.06   0.07
9   5.2  USN

C/2011 F1     13/05/2012 22:55:40  14.93  14.19  13.87  13.69  13.57  13.48
14.8  18.4  X13

C/2011 F1     13/05/2012 22:55:40*  0.02   0.03   0.04   0.04   0.04   0.04
10   5.2  USN

C/2011 F1     16/05/2012 23:47:37  14.88  14.12  13.81  13.63  13.52  13.45
13.2  18.5  X13

C/2011 F1     16/05/2012 23:47:37*  0.02   0.05   0.07   0.08   0.09   0.08
9   4.9  USN

C/2010 S1     14/05/2012 00:37:07  15.00  14.45  14.30  14.23  14.14  14.13
11.6  17.0  X13

C/2010 S1     14/05/2012 00:37:07*  0.04   0.07   0.10   0.12   0.15   0.15
9   4.8  USN

C/2010 R1     13/05/2012 23:41:41  16.88  16.58  16.62
5.9  17.5  X13

C/2010 R1     13/05/2012 23:41:41*  0.41   0.35   0.39
9   5.0  CMC

C/2012 CH17   16/05/2012 23:03:01  17.55  16.98  16.88  16.58  16.40  16.44
5.1  17.7  X13

C/2012 CH17   16/05/2012 23:03:01*  0.32   0.30   0.47   0.19   0.24   0.36
5   5.2  CMC

C/2006 S3     17/05/2012 01:19:25  13.91  13.35  13.07  12.89  12.77  12.69
15.1  16.6  X13

C/2006 S3     17/05/2012 01:19:25*  0.04   0.05   0.06   0.06   0.07   0.07
9   4.8  CMC





FoCAs 3.33

www.astrosurf.com/cometas-obs

es.groups.yahoo.com/group/Cometas_Obs



---------------------------------------------------



Best Regards,



Mr. Pieter-Jan Dekelver

Maasmechelen, Belgium

pieterjan.dekelver@...

www.astronomie.be/pieterjan.dekelver




   ----------

COD X13
COM Long. 5 40 46.6 E, Lat. 50 56 30.1 N, Alt. 20m
CON Pieter-Jan Dekelver, Observatory Grömme, Heirstraat 496, Maasmechelen 3630,
Belgium [pieterjan.dekelver@...]
OBS P-J Dekelver
MEA P-J Dekelver
TEL 0.20m f/4.5 Refl + CCD
ACK MPCReport file updated 2012.05.14 21:09:08
AC2 pieterjan.dekelver@...
NET UCAC-3
0029P        KC2012 05 13.91359 12 06 25.813-10 45 04.08         15.77N      X13
0029P        KC2012 05 13.91811 12 06 25.614-10 45 02.70         15.92N      X13
0029P         C2012 05 13.92150 12 06 25.479-10 45 00.19         15.91N      X13
0029P        KC2012 05 16.89081 12 05 57.719-10 39 16.38         15.44N      X13
0029P        KC2012 05 16.89759 12 05 57.641-10 39 16.19         15.51N      X13
0029P        KC2012 05 16.90663 12 05 57.609-10 39 15.70         15.47N      X13
     CK11F010 KC2012 05 13.00261 14 46 22.905+56 03 09.50         14.78N      X13
     CK11F010 KC2012 05 13.00938 14 46 22.295+56 03 07.15         14.79N      X13
     CK11F010 KC2012 05 13.01840 14 46 21.524+56 03 03.79         14.86N      X13
     CK11F010 KC2012 05 13.94743 14 45 02.879+55 57 23.88         14.83N      X13
     CK11F010 KC2012 05 13.95420 14 45 02.340+55 57 21.48         14.92N      X13
     CK11F010 KC2012 05 13.96322 14 45 01.558+55 57 18.38         14.88N      X13
     CK11F010 KC2012 05 16.98388 14 40 49.131+55 36 32.19         14.79N      X13
     CK11F010 KC2012 05 16.99066 14 40 48.542+55 36 29.12         14.79N      X13
     CK11F010 KC2012 05 16.99066 14 40 48.542+55 36 29.12         14.79N      X13
     CK11F010 KC2012 05 16.99968 14 40 47.796+55 36 25.02         14.81N      X13
     CK10S010 KC2012 05 14.01826 23 29 02.573+51 41 22.58         14.90N      X13
     CK10S010 KC2012 05 14.02503 23 29 02.557+51 41 24.96         14.90N      X13
     CK10S010 KC2012 05 14.03405 23 29 02.543+51 41 27.57         14.84N      X13
     CK10R010 KC2012 05 13.97968 15 24 37.496+07 35 58.51         16.89N      X13
     CK10R010 KC2012 05 13.98651 15 24 36.962+07 36 00.47         16.97N      X13
     CK10R010 KC2012 05 13.99566 15 24 36.250+07 36 02.06         16.59N      X13
     CK09P010 KC2012 05 13.88399 08 50 22.845+32 22 36.00         13.11N      X13
     CK09P010 KC2012 05 13.89369 08 50 22.958+32 22 22.40         12.92N      X13
     CK09P010 KC2012 05 13.90461 08 50 23.076+32 22 07.01         13.01N      X13
     CK09P010 KC2012 05 16.91913 08 51 04.570+31 13 33.26         13.02N      X13
     CK09P010 KC2012 05 16.92883 08 51 04.700+31 13 20.26         13.03N      X13
     CK09P010 KC2012 05 16.93974 08 51 04.876+31 13 05.35         13.06N      X13
     CK12C17H KC2012 05 16.95231 10 50 08.114+35 36 18.49         17.53N      X13
     CK12C17H KC2012 05 16.95908 10 50 08.209+35 36 17.88         17.71N      X13
     CK12C17H KC2012 05 16.96810 10 50 08.575+35 36 12.57         17.88N      X13
     CK06S030 KC2012 05 17.04765 17 11 15.158-12 52 47.70         14.06N      X13
     CK06S030 KC2012 05 17.05441 17 11 14.543-12 52 47.35         13.94N      X13
     CK06S030 KC2012 05 17.06343 17 11 13.739-12 52 46.70         13.97N      X13

----- end -----

COD X13
CON Pieter-Jan Dekelver, Observatory Grömme
CATALOG: USNO A2.0 / CMC-14 - BAND: R

                                    10x10  20x20  30x30  40x40  50x50  60x60  
SNR   SB   COD
OBJECT        DATE       TIME        +/-    +/-    +/-    +/-    +/-    +/-    
N  FWHM  CAT
------------  ---------- --------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ----- 
----  ----  ---
29P           13/05/2012 22:00:27  15.36  14.45  14.00  13.78  13.66  13.54  
6.8  16.6  X13
29P           13/05/2012 22:00:27*  0.05   0.10   0.11   0.12   0.16   0.15    
5   5.1  CMC
29P           16/05/2012 21:33:36  15.18  14.55  14.19  13.94  13.77  13.64  
8.4  16.9  X13
29P           16/05/2012 21:33:36*  0.04   0.07   0.09   0.10   0.14   0.14    
9   5.1  CMC
C/2009 P1     16/05/2012 22:18:05  12.76  11.94  11.53  11.24  11.02  10.83 
17.8  17.1  X13
C/2009 P1     16/05/2012 22:18:05*  0.02   0.02   0.01   0.01   0.02   0.02    
9   4.9  CMC
C/2011 F1     13/05/2012 00:14:35  14.81  14.03  13.71  13.54  13.45  13.39 
12.8  18.3  X13
C/2011 F1     13/05/2012 00:14:35*  0.07   0.05   0.07   0.07   0.06   0.07    
9   5.2  USN
C/2011 F1     13/05/2012 22:55:40  14.93  14.19  13.87  13.69  13.57  13.48 
14.8  18.4  X13
C/2011 F1     13/05/2012 22:55:40*  0.02   0.03   0.04   0.04   0.04   0.04   
10   5.2  USN
C/2011 F1     16/05/2012 23:47:37  14.88  14.12  13.81  13.63  13.52  13.45 
13.2  18.5  X13
C/2011 F1     16/05/2012 23:47:37*  0.02   0.05   0.07   0.08   0.09   0.08    
9   4.9  USN
C/2010 S1     14/05/2012 00:37:07  15.00  14.45  14.30  14.23  14.14  14.13 
11.6  17.0  X13
C/2010 S1     14/05/2012 00:37:07*  0.04   0.07   0.10   0.12   0.15   0.15    
9   4.8  USN
C/2010 R1     13/05/2012 23:41:41  16.88  16.58  16.62                       
5.9  17.5  X13
C/2010 R1     13/05/2012 23:41:41*  0.41   0.35   0.39                         
9   5.0  CMC
C/2012 CH17   16/05/2012 23:03:01  17.55  16.98  16.88  16.58  16.40  16.44  
5.1  17.7  X13
C/2012 CH17   16/05/2012 23:03:01*  0.32   0.30   0.47   0.19   0.24   0.36    
5   5.2  CMC
C/2006 S3     17/05/2012 01:19:25  13.91  13.35  13.07  12.89  12.77  12.69 
15.1  16.6  X13
C/2006 S3     17/05/2012 01:19:25*  0.04   0.05   0.06   0.06   0.07   0.07    
9   4.8  CMC


FoCAs 3.33
www.astrosurf.com/cometas-obs
es.groups.yahoo.com/group/Cometas_Obs


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Hi all -

Clay, as you point out, you have theories, and then you have data.

Of course, one of the problems with making estimates based on limited data is
the underlying assumptions about the total population to be estimated.

While some focus on manned missions and resource utilization, one key goal is to
estimate the impact hazard, the total number of potential impactors. It is my
contention that this population includes comets as well as asteroids.

In this case, as for all of NASA's work, the assumption is that dead comet
fragments are not a significant part of the hazard, but instead impacts are due
to asteroids (95%). In large part this is based on Morrison's early work on
lunar impacts, which conveniently ignored the fact that the Moon is part of a 2
body system, the Earth and the Moon.

In the case of ELEs, they can pretty well be shown to have been caused by comet
impact.

While it is difficult to retrieve data from recent larger impacts, most appear
to be comet fragments. (I would have loved to have found an asteroid impact, and
to have sold meteorites from it.)

It is going to be interesting to compare the WISE data and the optical data, to
gain a better understanding of what's out there.

The lack of Hubble IR imaging of 73P's debris stream by NASA is particularly
aggravating to me right now.

E.P. Grondine
Man and Impact in the Americas