The little article below does a nice job of pointing out some of the
facets of cultural change. It gave me some clues as to why the
description of the "Responsible Villager" seemed to be a hybrid of
conservative and progressive values.

Please message your thoughts back to the list. That's what it's here
for :o)

Greg in MO
**********

THE VISION THING
Posted by David Roberts at 12:21 PM on 11 Apr 2006
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/4/11/01558/2613

Over on Worldchanging, Alex addresses a subject that's dear to my
heart, namely what George Bush Sr. famously called The Vision Thing.

He rightly points out that the kinds of solutions being discussed
fall absurdly short of what's needed to avoid the worst of climate
change. Scientists now say we need to cut global GHG emissions by 70
percent in the next decade or so; Kyoto would cut them by 5.5
percent, and it's the best we've got right now, and the U.S. hasn't
ratified it, and the countries that have aren't meeting its targets.

This is to say nothing of the "change a light bulb and properly
inflate your tires" school of solutions one often finds in
mainstream media outlets.

Why the gap? Alex suspects, as do I, that what's missing is a clear
vision: a picture of what a sustainable world would look like.
(Regular readers will be familiar with my obsession with this topic.)

Worldchanging being Worldchanging, they focus pretty heavily on
technical solutions. And thank gawd somebody's bringing all that
stuff together.

But I am equally fascinated by the psychology and sociology of
change. How do people approach and think about large changes? What's
the best way to "sell" sweeping, concerted change in a society that
is, whatever its problems, at least for the moment rich and
comfortable?

People must be able to visualize what they're fighting for before
they will rise to the occasion. And I would add, they must be able
to visualize a desirable future world before they can really absorb
the scale of the problem. The mind's capacity for denial should
never be underestimated. It's much, much easier to pretend the
problem doesn't exist than to face the prospect that everything
you've ever known is in danger of crumbling. That's why climate
denialists have held on long past the point when science has made a
mockery of their positions -- there's a hunger for what they're
saying.

As I keep saying, I'm working on (i.e., periodically thinking and
feeling guilty about) a series of longer posts about this stuff. But
here's some general framing.

The "vision" people are offered will need to be context-sensitive,
depending where they live and their own level of education and
wealth. But any vision at all will need to be not incidentally but
primarily about values.

Talk about values is hopelessly confused and narrow in this country.
Lord knows I'm not talking about gay marriage or repressive sexual
mores. All I mean is that people must be able to envision
themselves, or their children or grandchildren, living a life of
quality, integrity, and meaning. Our vision must be not only
technically possible but resonant with people's non-material needs
and desires.

Complicating matters is the fact that in times of change, people
become more conservative in their values, not less. Anxiety prompts
a reaching out for the familiar, for that which grounds -- family,
community, and tradition. (This is behind the famed tendency of red
states, where regressive economic policy causes the most dislocation
and insecurity, to vote for the very "values candidates" that
implement that policy.)

The scale of change required by climate change is extraordinary.
There will be great anxiety involved. People will be reaching out
for what grounds them. That's why I think the vision we ask people
to fight for must not be framed as something radically new, a sharp
break with human culture and history. It must be framed as a return,
in many ways, to values that the hyper-charged era of cheap oil
almost destroyed: Self-reliance. Rootedness in a place and a
community. Mutual care.

Anyway, more on this, someday over the rainbow.

Just saw these two news bits back-to-back in an online newsletter I
receive ( www.grist.org ). I thought it sounded like these big
mainstream business are wandering down the Responsible Villager
path, though they probably see it as just being good corporate
citizens...

Thoughts?

Greg
****

Don't Discount Him
An interview with Wal-Mart CEO H. Lee Scott

  Could Wal-Mart do for sustainable business practices what it's done
for cheap plastic geegaws? CEO H. Lee Scott thinks so. Though the
world's largest retailer has been slammed for a range of eco-sins --
from promoting sprawl to polluting streams to undermining local
economies -- it has within the last year set ambitious
sustainability goals, and last week called for mandatory caps on
greenhouse-gas emissions. Amanda Griscom Little talks to Scott about
his company's plans to green operations, sell more affordable
organic goods, and "democratize sustainability." You may begin
composing your angry letters now.

new in Main Dish: Don't Discount Him

****

Oh No He Didn't
Chrysler official takes public potshot at oil companies

What's more fun than a quiet, simmering feud between Big Auto and
Big Oil? A public catfight! Chief Chrysler spokesflack Jason Vines
minced no words on a company blog Monday: "Despite a documented
history of ... hoarding their bounty by avoiding technologies,
policies, and legislation that would protect the population and
environment and lower fuel costs, Big Oil insists on transferring
all of that responsibility on the auto companies." The tirade was in
part a reaction to a recent ExxonMobil print ad that called
attention to the auto industry's conspicuous failure to keep up with
energy-efficiency gains in the broader economy. "Each industry is
right that the other is to blame for a big part of the problem,"
said the Sierra Club's Dan Becker, who added of the smackdown: "I'm
happy to watch."


straight to the source: The Detroit News, Josee Valcourt and
Christine Tierney, 11 Apr 2006

straight to the source: MLive.com, Associated Press, 11 Apr 2006

Thanks Henry,

Sounds like you too have been thinking about how the end of cheap
oil could effect the concept of Penturbia.

I wonder if perhaps the name "Responsible Villager" doesn't cause
folks to picture this new culture living primarily in little
villages? And if perhaps that isn't a bit off target?

It's been awhile since I read the books, but didn't Penturbia
consist of small cities and towns that were big enough to provide
the bulk of the facilities and social interactions that people
needed for an interesting life? These would seem to need to be a bit
larger than a tiny village.

Rolling the end of cheap oil (peak oil) into the mix would seem to
lead to Penturbia taking on many of the features of what is now
called New Urbanism. New Urbanism is basicallly the classic walkable
city with residential,commercial and industrial all mixed together
and agricultural and natural areas surrounding the town. Public
transport (remember the old trolleys?) ties the edges and
surrounding small communities back to the city center. This takes
the edge off peak oil and high transport cost by making private cars
unnecessary.

Thoughts?

Greg


--- In schizomania@yahoogroups.com, "Henry T Fiddler"
<htfiddler@...> wrote:
>
> Moderator wrote:
>
> > Something I've been wondering about lately is how the potential
of the
> > petroleum supply falling short of demand in the near future will
> > effect the upcoming Responsible Villager culture? I can see
where it
> > really trips up the Little King's suburban realm, but it seems
like
> > very expensive travel would also cause some problems for the
remote
> > small towns and villages. If anybody hasn't heard about the
issue of
> > the oil supply peaking there are some good books I can recommend
so
> > you can check it out for yourself.
>
> Yes ... this has definitely been on my mind too.  There are 2 ways
to
> look at it.
>
> Negative:
> Oil prices will rise dramatically as we use the remaining 50% of
the
> recoverable oil on Planet Earth, and that will cause a plethora of
> problems for the remote small towns and villages that make up
> Penturbia.
>
> Positive:
> If gas goes to $10, $20 or $50 a gallon, where would you rather
be?
> In LA, or Penturbia somewhere?  The answer is obvious.  There will
be
> problems everywhere, but they will be much more severe in the huge
> population centers.
>
> I was looking at one of Jack's websites a year or two ago, I think
it
> was alternativeeconomics.com.  Jack had a page full of
predictions,
> and one of them (as I recall) was that after a steep rise, oil
prices
> would fall back dramatically, perhaps due to a reduction in
demand.
> I just looked at predicting2020.com and couldn't find it.  Anyway,
> this would be a good question to pose to Jack for the group's
> benefit.
>
> Here are a couple of great sites:
>
> Best site on peak oil I've found yet:
> htp://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
>
> Best site on relocalization of economies I've found yet.  Click on
> relocalization button at the top of page:
> http://www.postcarbon.org/
>
> :-),
> Henry Fiddler
>
> _________________ <<Henry the Fiddler>> __________________
> E-Mail:  htfiddler@...
> Web:    http://www.htfiddler.net/
> =================================================
>

Moderator wrote:

> Something I've been wondering about lately is how the potential of the
> petroleum supply falling short of demand in the near future will
> effect the upcoming Responsible Villager culture? I can see where it
> really trips up the Little King's suburban realm, but it seems like
> very expensive travel would also cause some problems for the remote
> small towns and villages. If anybody hasn't heard about the issue of
> the oil supply peaking there are some good books I can recommend so
> you can check it out for yourself.

Yes ... this has definitely been on my mind too.  There are 2 ways to
look at it.

Negative:
Oil prices will rise dramatically as we use the remaining 50% of the
recoverable oil on Planet Earth, and that will cause a plethora of
problems for the remote small towns and villages that make up
Penturbia.

Positive:
If gas goes to $10, $20 or $50 a gallon, where would you rather be?
In LA, or Penturbia somewhere?  The answer is obvious.  There will be
problems everywhere, but they will be much more severe in the huge
population centers.

I was looking at one of Jack's websites a year or two ago, I think it
was alternativeeconomics.com.  Jack had a page full of predictions,
and one of them (as I recall) was that after a steep rise, oil prices
would fall back dramatically, perhaps due to a reduction in demand.
I just looked at predicting2020.com and couldn't find it.  Anyway,
this would be a good question to pose to Jack for the group's
benefit.

Here are a couple of great sites:

Best site on peak oil I've found yet:
htp://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Best site on relocalization of economies I've found yet.  Click on
relocalization button at the top of page:
http://www.postcarbon.org/

:-),
Henry Fiddler

_________________ <<Henry the Fiddler>> __________________
E-Mail:  htfiddler@...
Web:    http://www.htfiddler.net/
=================================================

Hello,

This is the list moderator asking everybody to please help make this
discussion list an interesting place by, well, discussing things. :o)

Anything related to Schizomania or Penturbia is great.

Something I've been wondering about lately is how the potential of
the petroleum supply falling short of demand in the near future will
effect the upcoming Responsible Villager culture? I can see where it
really trips up the Little King's suburban realm, but it seems like
very expensive travel would also cause some problems for the remote
small towns and villages. If anybody hasn't heard about the issue of
the oil supply peaking there are some good books I can recommend so
you can check it out for yourself.

But that's just a potential subject for discussion. Feel free to
toss in your own ideas and questions.

So loosing up them fingers and let the typing begin...

Greg

Our Schizomania list just keeps growing, but we sure have been a quiet
bunch! There are 15 members now.

So let's get the conversation rolling. I know there are ideas from the
book that I wanted to see what others thought of, observations of
things happening in our culture that made me think of the
schizomania/penturbia theory, and questions I just wanted to ask
someone else who had read the book.  And I'm sure you all have too.

So post them here and let's talk about them.

To post a message here just e-mail it to:
   schizomania@yahoogroups.com

Thanks,

Greg
Schizomania list moderator

What do you all think of what these two articles have to say in
light of the Penturbia concept?

Greg
****

http://www.landinstitute.org/vnews/display.v/ART/2006/01/05/43c48fcfc
105f
In appreciation of small towns
Aubrey Streit

You don't have to be from a small town to know what one is like.
Your stereotype is right: Old-timers gossip over morning coffee, and
every person at the cafe knows you, and your dog too. Streets are
nearly empty most nights, with only a few teen-agers driving in
circles until they finally accumulate enough velocity to spin out of
town.

I was one of those teen-agers. And my parents supported me. They
thought staying would waste their hard work, my talent.

For the first time in my adolescence, I agreed with them. I would
never get anywhere, I thought, if I stayed in the middle of nowhere.

I decided I would leave to have the freedom to make my own life, to
escape the claustrophobia of a small place, to continue my
education, so I could get a job.

Last summer, with my parents' encouragement, I studied writing at an
institute in upstate New York. I did my best to hide my small-town
past — I tried to change the subject when people asked where I was
from.

One writer was not diverted.

"Rural America is dying," he said, "because creative young people
like you leave."

This was obvious, but I had always thought it applied to someone
else. My parents and my town, by believing my decision to leave
inevitable, had in effect given me permission and absolved me of
responsibility.

The problem is that small towns bank only on potential, and simply
pray that we will someday have a change of heart and return.

That won't be enough to save them. Small towns can't afford to wait.
If small towns want to survive, they must both retain and attract
young adults.

More parents must teach their children that there's no shame in the
stereotype we rightfully perpetuate about small towns. In fact, the
stereotype reveals the best things about small towns. Economically
shaky or not, they're built on the bedrock of human nature.

Yes, small-town life can be riddled with painful gossip. But shared
stories can also weave people and their lives together.

In small towns, people can seem nosy invaders of privacy. But
sometimes this is simply unabashed concern. It's for better, not
worse, that nothing and no one are forgotten.

There may be cracks in small-town sidewalks, but small-town students
don't fall through them. Small class sizes allow teachers to give
the personal attention that can truly keep a student from being left
behind.

Some small towns are in the middle of nowhere. But that's really
somewhere: "now" and "here." Small towns offer an experience of the
present that is wholly unmediated, face to face. With nowhere to
hide, we can stop trying to. And thanks to technology, these places
are no longer isolated from the world outside.

I wanted to leave my small town to be independent. But I've realized
that needing other people isn't dependency, it's community. Being
part of a community is realistic, useful and good. Unlike people in
larger places, small-town residents know that when "somebody has to
pay," that somebody is likely themselves.

This isn't naive idealism. I've never experienced the "good old
days" of small-town life. I don't know anyone who has, or who's
expecting to.

But neither is the stereotype as bleak as we make it sound. By "we,"
I mean all of us — those who live in small towns, those who have
left, those who have never been. All of us know those empty streets,
whether we've walked them or not.

I thought I wanted to leave to find something new. Now I realize
what I've been looking for is something so familiar that I used to
overlook it: a sense of caring, of community, of connection with
humanity — something so apparent in small towns.

—Aubrey Streit grew up in Tipton, Kan., population 235, and wrote
this for the Prairie Writers Circle while she was an intern at the
Land Institute. She is a student at Bethany College in Lindsborg,
Kan.
*****************

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?
AID=/20060205/BUSINESS01/602050316/1005/BUSINESS

Growing demand for organic produce helps young farmers
MICHELLE THERIAULT
THE BELLINGHAM HERALD

At Sunseed Farm, Nick Guilford's co-workers are earthworms and
voices from NPR, which plays on a radio in a corner of the
greenhouse.
His cubicle is a few acres of loamy earth along the Nooksack River,
just south of Acme.
There's no timesheet and no overtime. Instead, he follows the
farmer's schedule: Do what needs to be done, even if it takes all
the daylight hours and a few in the dark.
For this organic farmer, the rewards sprout from the dark soil:
tomatoes, raspberries, garlic, and a sense of purpose the 33-year-
old doubts he would have found in an office.
"The greatest reward is the sense of meaning in my life," says
Guilford, who has been a farmer since he was in his early 20s, and
is the sole proprietor of Sunseed Farm.
"I feel like the work I do day to day isn't pointless, I have
customers who've been feeding their kids with my produce for eight
or nine years."
The customers feeding their kids with blueberries and chard are the
same ones making locally grown, organic produce a booming business
in Whatcom County: from restaurants like Nimbus to the Community
Food Co-op and the upcoming Depot Market Square, small local farmers
have more and more customers and venues to sell their wares.
For a new generation of environmentally-minded youths in their 20s
and early 30s, organic farming is a way back to the land, and away
from a desk job. The growing market for what they grow - organics
are the fastest-growing segment in groceries - is giving young,
upstart farmers with little traditional experience or land a chance
to enter the profession.
"Organic agriculture has been one little breath of hope that has
entered the picture and allowed a lot of people with very limited
means to enter into agriculture," says Mike Finger, who has been
growing market produce near Bellingham for 18 years, and has helped
several young farmers learn the trade.
Henry Bierlink of Whatcom Farm Friends, an organization devoted to
promoting agriculture in the county, says that there seems to be two
distinct groups of young farmers emerging in the county.
"There are young farmers who are either children of existing farmers
transitioning into taking over, and a few have just started out on
their own," says Bierlink.
NO DESK JOB
In Whatcom County, organic market produce is still a tiny fragment
of the county's $290 million agriculture industry - large dairy and
raspberry farms account for much of the business. But it's popular
and growing, both nationwide and in Whatcom County, says Jean
Rodgers of the Community Co-op, which purchases produce from small,
local farming operations.
It's unknown how many other Nick Guilfords are out there in Whatcom
County, and many small upstart organics businesses flare out after a
bad crop year or two.
But just walk through the farmers market and you'll see faces much
younger than the statewide average of 55.4 years old for principal
farm operators.
Guilford was raised in Kansas and Idaho by parents who were both
teachers. Life as a farmer wasn't part of the plan. "Not a whole lot
of thought was given to doing manual labor for a living," says the
onetime psychology major.
When Guilford was a student at Fairhaven College in the early 1990s,
his dabbling in the garden began to seem like it could become a
viable livelihood.
The subjects he studied in college were fascinating, says Guilford.
"But none of them were really things I wanted to do every day."
He spent the summer of 1996 working for Brent Harrison's Growing
Garden, a farm established on Metcalfe Road more than 20 years ago.
That was eight years ago, and he's been growing cucumbers, tomatoes,
garlic, plant starts, shallots and berries on three acres ever since.
FARMER'S LIFE
For solo operators like Guilford, fortunes are as variable as the
weather.
There are catastrophes, like last year's raspberry disaster, the
high cost of infrastructure and endless chores.
But while many of his peers have spent the past decade in towns and
cities working jobs with mobility, and time for recreation, Guilford
has devoted himself almost exclusively to the care of his land.
There's no other way - there's always a potting shed to clean, a
barn-full of equipment to inventory, and in the harvest season, the
delicate balancing act of harvesting and selling the product of a
year's toil at market.
It hasn't been easy.
"The level of chronic overwhelm I've had in my life has definitely
taken its toll," he says. It's a life that leaves scant time for
other passions, like river kayaking. Last year, Guilford took three
days off, total.
"I didn't really grasp that," he says.
"I love what I'm doing, I'd like a little more diversity in my life."
But things do keep getting better. He's graduated from walk-behind
Rototiller to a new tractor. And he's expanded his business
significantly.
NEW CROP
Mike Finger, who started his Cedarville Farm 18 years ago, has been
both a young apprentice and a teacher. Over the years, Finger has
hosted six apprentices, mostly young and earnest college-aged would-
be farmers.
It's not like the back-to-the-land movement of the '70s,
when "everybody seemed to be going up into the hills and building a
yurt," says Finger.
But there's a definite appeal for young people.
"Virtually everybody who has ever approached me was interested in
organic farming," says Finger.
"They're definitely interested in healthy food, land stewardship,
sustainability."
The idealism of his apprentices is quickly replaced by experience.
"If they are a little naïve, after a couple of months of working out
here they have the knowledge and maturity to realize farming is
working."
HARD WORK, SWEET REWARD
"There's a lot of best things about it," says Crystine Goldberg, a
32-year-old who recently started Uprising Organics on a few acres of
land near Guilford's with her partner, Brian Campbell, 30.
She was attracted to "watching things grow," business ownership,
being outdoors much of the time, and spending time with her family,
which includes 9-month-old son Rowan.
Goldberg, who worked on farms in Vermont and Oregon and was an
environmental studies student at the University of Oregon, says that
her path to the land was natural.
"Just loving what we do is probably just about the best thing," she
says.
"I can't even imagine being in an office."
It's not all blossoms and sunshine. Sometimes it's harvesting leeks
in a December downpour, or scraping by financially.
"It's not really enough, but it works. I don't think it would be
enough for most people," says Goldberg.
But there are reminders, every harvest season, of the reasons she
continues coaxing edible and beautiful things from the earth.
And if everything goes right - and the weather and earth cooperate -
she hopes they'll end up heaped on a dinner plate.

Here are a couple possible questions we have so far.  Send in your
own questions, to the list or feel free to comment on these.

1. What slice of the American public is currently farthest along
towards being 'Responsible Villagers'?  The rich, middle class or
poor?  The left, moderates, right or the apolitical?  Rural,
suburban or metropolitan?  The young, middle-aged or old?

2. What effect is the upcoming period of maximum oil production
levels (2010 +/-) and the following steady decreases in production
level likely to have on the formation of Penturbia?

Let's add some more questions to the list!  Or even modifications to
these questions.

Hopefully we can get Jack to answer one in February.

Greg



--- In schizomania@yahoogroups.com, "g_baka2002" <g_baka2002@y...>
wrote:
>
> I don't know if this would be possible or not, but perhaps the
group
> could ask Jack to answer a question for us each month?
>
> We could all working on figuring out a question during the month
then
> send it on to him at the end of the month.
>
> Some of the easier questions we may be able to answer for
eachother
> just from info in the books or his other articles.
>
> Like I said, he may not be interesting in doing this. But if there
is
> enough interest from the group I will ask...
>
> Greg
> list moderator
>

I don't know if this would be possible or not, but perhaps the group
could ask Jack to answer a question for us each month?

We could all working on figuring out a question during the month then
send it on to him at the end of the month.

Some of the easier questions we may be able to answer for eachother
just from info in the books or his other articles.

Like I said, he may not be interesting in doing this. But if there is
enough interest from the group I will ask...

Greg
list moderator

A new member named Will sent the following info to me. Check it out -
a new Lessinger article and website!

*Will: to post to the whole list please send the message to:
schizomania@yahoogroups.com

Greg
****

From: Will LastName" <wasrari@...>

There is a new article that was uploaded this morning. Also, it is my
understanding that the data from schizomania.com is in the process of
being ported to the predicting2020.com domain.

http://www.predicting2020.com/TGD

Members new and old: Please share your thoughts or questions on
Schizomania and Penturbia, that's what the list is for...

As a side note, does anybody know what happened to the
www.schizomania.com website?  It seems to have been deactivated. Does
anybody know if Jack Lessinger has produced any new articles or books
lately?

Greg

Hi folks,

We have a new member with an interest in Penturbia and the theory
behind it. Somebody want to take a crack at explaining what it is and
what drives it?

Members old and new, please feel free to post questions and comments
to the list. That's what it is here for...

Greg
list moderator

I've loaned my Penturbia book out to somebody. Would someone here
want to compare the cities listed in this article to see if the ones
with undervalued or overvalued property values match up with the
predicted Penturbia cities? Please post your findings back here to
the list for us to see.

The article does a nice job of showing that not all cities are
experiencing the housing bubble. Here is the link...
http://tinyurl.com/844mt
and below is a little of the article...

Greg in MO
**************

http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/29/real_estate/buying_selling/handicappi
ng_housing_markets/index.htm

Most overvalued housing markets
Latest analysis of 299 markets: See how your hometown ranks.
December 29, 2005: 1:01 PM EST
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Sixty-five of the nation's 299 biggest
real estate markets are severely overpriced and subject to possible
price corrections.

That's according to the latest (third quarter) Housing Market
Analysis conducted by National City Corp, a financial holding
company, in conjunction with Global Insight, a financial information
provider.

The report named Naples, Florida as the most overvalued of all
housing markets in the United States. A single-family, median-priced
home there sells for $329,970, 84 percent more than what it should
cost -- $180,956 -- according to the analysis.

National City arrives at its estimates of what the typical house in
these markets should cost by examining the town's population
densities, local interest rates, and income levels. It also factors
in historical premiums and discounts for each area.

Other markets deemed wildly overpriced included Merced, California
(by 77 percent), Salinas, California (75 percent), and Port St.
Lucie, Florida (72 percent).

Undervalued markets were College Station (-23 percent), El Paso (-18
percent), and Killeen (-16 percent), all in Texas. That state
dominated the discounted markets list with nine of the 10 most
undervalued housing markets. Montgomery, Alabama was No. 8 among the
undervalued markets.

The data did produce some evidence of prices moderating, according
to National City's chief economist, Richard DeKaser.

In Massachusetts, for example, one of the hottest of housing markets
over the past few years, each of the seven housing markets analyzed
was still overvalued. Prices, however, had fallen in all seven. That
would indicate the state is trending back toward normal valuations.

The same could not be said of Florida. The Sunshine State had 15
different markets on the list of extremely overpriced metro areas
and all 15 had grown more overpriced during the quarter.

Amidst all these hot and cold markets there were a few judged, like
Goldilock's porridge, "just right." They included Albuquerque New
Mexico, Dayton Ohio, and Omaha Nebraska. In all those towns actually
selling prices closely tracked the expected values.

<SNIP>
<City listing only at the article website>

Got a message this morning from Jack Lessinger, author
of "Schizomania" that he has a new website describing his theories.
The website is not completely finished yet, but you can go to it and
check out the first half. The link is:
http://www.predicting2020.com/

Let us all know what you think of his new site. Seems like it might be
a nice way to introduce folks to the idea if they balk at reading the
whole book.

Also we had a new member join this morning. Welcome haykin7 !
(You mentioned something in your message about a red wagon, I'm not
sure what this is but you're welcome to ask here.)

Greg

The article below is a little old, but it does have a nice map of
the expected Penturbia areas. You will have to go to the linked
website to see it...

Feel free to post folks. Anybody seen evidence lately of the changes
predicted in the Schizomania or Penturbia books coming to reality?

Greg
****

The Rise of New America
http://www.motherearthnews.com/library/1988_March_April/The_Rise_of_N
ew_America

The dominant lifestyle and economy of the 21st century will spring
from certain rural counties. So predicts Jack Lessinger. By Alfred
Meyer.

Issue # 110 - March/April 1988

Migration often precedes renewal.

Once a week in his house in Seattle, land economist Jack Lessinger,
a serious amateur musician, cranks up his violin and, with three
cohorts, embarks on an evening of chamber music. Professor emeritus
of real estate and urban development at the University of
Washington, Lessinger is almost the epitome of the dedicated city-
dweller. Smart and cosmopolitan, he enjoys sophisticated
restaurants, live opera, art exhibits, the well-stocked libraries,
amenities that abound in this vigorous, often rain-swept city on the
Sound.

At the same time, however, another part of him—the academic,
theoretical part; the prophetic part, one might even add-sees
Seattle and, for that matter, most major U.S. cities as dinosaurs
caught in the grip of turbulent change. They are, he senses, less
and less able to provide enough jobs, decent housing and basic
services, let alone an uncongested, healthy living environment. Not
only that, the suburbs—for decades now the embodiment of the middle-
class American dream of security and contentment—are becoming
equally outmoded as they fall victim to similar blights: heavy
traffic, blue air, breaking and entering, the numbing sameness of
nearby shopping malls and fast-food chains.

But these debilities are only symptoms. What caused them is a
national economy dangerously out of kilter with its resources. As a
result, says Lessinger, we are even now in the throes of discarding
our current economic structure and defining its replacement. Put
another way, we are at a crossroads. Not only that, the direction
signs he sees posted there point quite specifically to America's
more rural counties. How he came to read those signs involves our
comings and goings—our migrations as a people—over the span of our
history.

What is distinct about Lessinger's conclusions is that they are not
based on philosophic or subjective analyses, valid though these
might coincidentally prove. Rather, he claims, they are based on
objective criteria, on pure data, on unmistakable messages contained
in the unfolding record of changing property values in America over
the last 200 years. Moreover, those messages describe more than the
face value of real estate. Indeed, they reflect not only the
successes and failures of the economies in which that value arose
and fluctuated, but also the assumptions, tastes and goals of the
society itself.

In short, in a book published in 1986 (Regions of Opportunity, Times
Books) Lessinger states he has detected the first signs of a major
shift in current U.S. demographic patterns. Within the next decade
or two, he foresees not only that certain of the most rural counties
will experience the greatest growth in population and, consequently,
in real estate value, but that they will also become the furnace in
which the dominant lifestyle and economy of the twenty-first century
will be forged. In other words, the back-to-the-land movement that
spiked up in the '70s (and that to some degree typifies the MOTHER
EARTH NEWS reader even today), rather than being an ephemeral,
anomaly, represents instead the leading ede of a vast new migratory
wave. Though still a mere ripple generated by back-to-the-landers,
urban dropouts and even city and suburban residents who maintain a
weekend house "in the country," it will soon be followed by a
massive relocation in the same direction—from obsolescing urban arid
suburban clusters to the more remote and spacious rural counties.
Equally significant in his judgment, this coming migration will
signal the failure and imminent demise of our current economic
structure, while at the same time pointing the way to the emergence
of a more appropriate successor. He has even given this vision
toward which today's pioneers are drawn a name of its own,
Penturbia. "The new migrants," he advises, "are already studying
their maps."

The name penturbia derives in part from the Greek penta, "five," and
was coined by Lessinger because the migration he anticipates follows
on the heels of four previous ones, each closely documented by
census data and real estate records and each following long periods
of relative stability. What triggered these migrations, however, is
not likely to be widely agreed upon. To Lessinger, each resulted
from the exhaustion of a once viable social and economic strategy
and the embrace of a more promising replacement. In his eyes, our
history is a sweeping, dynamic procession involving the rise, reign
and fall of different strategies, one after the other. Once a
strategy begins to falter, a kind of migratory restlessness ensues,
leading to a search not only for new habitats but for new economic
directions and even for new rules with which to exploit them.

Wave of the Future
"Penturbia" refers both to counties likely to see the strongest long-
run growth in the decades ahead and to the quality of life Lessinger
predicts will emerge in them.

While the life history of each of these stages identified by
Lessinger is obviously intricate, each can nevertheless be briefly
summarized. For example, the first migration (1760-1789) followed
the breakdown of what he calls the reign of the Mercantile
Aristocrat, an economic system firmly in the grip of British and
American blue bloods and requiring centralization, large
plantations, government monopolies and rigid social stratification—
all to assure the steady flow of raw materials to England.

Independence, democratic fervor and the rise of states' rights led
to the rejection of this system and the formation of the second
stage, that of the Bantam Capitalist (1789-1900). According to
Lessinger, it was a time of Jeffersonian arousal, the heyday of
the "common man" and Mom and Pop enterprise. Local markets
flourished and Yankee ingenuity created a flurry of products—tools,
utensils and housewares, most of them custom-made—as migrants pushed
into the far reaches of the Mississippi Valley where land was
plentiful and cheap. Wide-ranging, smallscale entrepreneurial
farming took root and small towns arose and prospered.

But inefficiency, duplication and the lack of standardization, says
Lessinger, handicapped this system in the newly emerging, highly
competitive worldwide industrial marketplace. Enter mass production,
the consolidation of capital, the formation of corporations and the
booming rise of mighty cities. Migrants flocked to Chicago and
Minneapolis to staff new factories or headed farther west to work in
mines, quarries, timber lots, fisheries or newly mechanized, large-
scale farms. The economy of the Colossus (1846-1958), the third
stage, had taken hold. Saving was still a virtue, machines elicited
reverence and productivity became the national rallying cry. Urban
real estate soared in value.

However, productive capacity not only gradually outstripped demand
but became an end in itself, leading to overproduction and to the
Depression of the early '30s. By then it had already become clear
that the markets for the increasing array of manufactured goods—
whether appliances, automobiles or home furnishings—were limited by
an ingrained consumer attitude favoring savings and thrift, by the
modest amount of disposable income available and by periods of
widespread unemployment. After World War II, which had seen a
tremendous output of materiel as well as an unprecedented spurt both
in industrial technology and in wages, the need to stimulate these
domestic markets and fuel the postwar economy became acute. The
growth of mass media and the increasing sophistication of product
advertising, coupled with a change in banking policies making
consumer credit almost universally available, did the trick. From a
society of producers we had become a society of consumers, ushering
in the fourth stage, the Little King (1900-2010). Housing
developments proliferated on city outskirts. Credit cards came into
vogue.

"As the new consensus washed over the mind of America," Lessinger
writes, "the economy devoted to spending became a roaring reality.
Americans migrated to suburbia by the millions to preside as Little
Kings and Queens over their one-sixth-acre domains. They filled
their single-family palaces with freezers, vacuum cleaners, air
conditioners, TVs, electric blankets. Their royal carports and
garages bulged with cars, boats and RVs of every description." For
the most part, they also found themselves deeply in hock.

However, just as excess in one way or another doomed the previous
economies, overconsumption is unraveling that of the Little King,
says Lessinger. Not only are the royal nests being fouled as the
suburbs become increasingly urbanized, but the acquisitive "buy now,
pay later" formula driving the domestic economy also drives the
nation's fiscal policy. Equally taken with the ease of borrowing
against the future, the U.S. as a result finds itself facing a
federal deficit that makes it the largest debtor nation in the
world.

Granting that a major economic restructuring looms and that we are a
population in the early throes of migratory flux, the question
arises: migrating to where?

Geographically, "Penturbia" is simple enough to locate, as the
adjoining map indicates. In general, it is at least three or four
hours from metropolitan hubs and more or less economically
independent of them. Rather than concentrated in a single town, it
is distributed around a regional network of small towns. Community
centers, schools and universities are sprinkled throughout, as are
flea and truck markets, specialty shops and light industries, though
in low profile. Above all, the setting is rural and lies amid farms,
forests, lakes, streams and mountains, locales that provide easy
access to nature.

But what distinguishes Penturbia as an economic system that is
preferable, if not superior, to that of the Little King?
Conservation is Lessinger's answer, an ethic he believes works both
as a lifestyle theme and as an economic strategy, one he calls the
Careful Conserver. What he means is that both the migration and the
low-density communities predicted to take shape as a result will be
animated by values directly contrary to those of the Little King—
conserving will take precedence over consuming, bartering over
buying, nurturing over exploitation, frugality over self-indulgence.

Lessinger's Penturbia is a post-industrial Arcadia whose inhabitants
pride themselves on self-sufficiency, thrift and quality of life,
values already familiar to the vanguard migrants. The new economy,
in addition, demands a curb on waste and pollution, an emphasis on
personal, community and environmental health, and the careful
tending of resources. By these he means human resources, including
the elderly, the handicapped, the poor and minorities; physical,
cultural and natural resources like historic buildings, artworks and
forested parks; and capital resources for investment in
infrastructure (roads and bridges), education and renewal of
national productivity.

While it will seem to some that Penturbia is merely a way of
describing—and in some measure a rationalization for-an America
floundering in straitened circumstances, it will seem to others as
the arrival, long overdue, of an America that is not only less
frantic and gluttonous, but also a place where life can proceed at a
slower but more fulfilling and humane pace.

The handwriting is on the wall, and so are the numbers. "The great
turning point was 1970," he maintains. "Suburban counties, which
began growing after the century mark and especially after World War
II, began declining, and the decline continues in the 1980s. The
core penturban counties peaked in the nineteenth century and then
declined, but after 1970 accelerated."

But the thrust of Lessinger's findings—and of his predictions—goes
well beyond mere real estate speculation or the decline of the
suburbs. What he is saying is that his figures provide him with an
index to the important linkage between changing rates of settlement
and growth and the social and economic realities they reflect.
According to his theories, life in America is on the verge of a
dramatic sea change. A new America, a new consensus is beginning to
form.

THE COMING DECLINE OF BIG SPENDING AND THE NEXT AMERICAN DREAM

By Jack Lessinger

Credit card in hand, we shop 'til we drop. Keeps the economy humming.
Always has and always will, right? Wrong. The slow sales of Christmas
2002 --"weakest in three decades" (AP) --foreshadow a historic shift
in spending habits. Big Spending as we know it today is an isolated
phenomenon that began after World War II. It ran its course and is
now falling into irrelevance.

In the 19th century, Americans transformed a continent (and created
jobs) by saving and investing in mines, railroads, factories and
cities. They continued to scrimp and save right up to World War II.
Spend good seed capital on a car that doesn't earn a cent of
interest? Nonsense. Buy it on credit and pay interest? Scandalous!
The precious few able to afford more than basic necessities saved and
invested in their golden future --up to 40 percent of their income.
That was the American Dream back then. Save and invest now. Get-it-
all later.

Get-it-all and get it now-today's American Dream-first excited a few
rebellious souls around 1900. The new dream-call it the Little King-
made every consumer a king, a little king. With his little queen, the
new mini-monarch would preside over his mini-kingdom in suburbia.

By the 1920s, ladies in bloomers and bustles metamorphosed into short-
skirted, Charleston-dancing flappers. Black utility Model T's
blossomed into colorful roadsters. Nevertheless, the time-encrusted
injunction to save remained the stronger influence. A dangerous split
was developing. (Economists, failing to see the long-run significance
of that split, predicted continuing prosperity. Certainly through the
1930s!)

By the 1930s, visions of little kingdoms were growing fast, but not
fast enough to rescue the millions of unemployed devastated by the
slowing of demand for more and more basic industry. The new dream
would vastly expand demand (and jobs) for consumer goods-houses,
appliances, cars and later, freeways and malls. But the old dream was
still hale and hearty. The economy was paralyzed by two conflicting
dreams, both equally powerful. (Economists, little inclined to study
dreams, blamed the Great Depression on economic factors -- like the
gold standard or flawed trade policies.)

After World War II, the consumer engine caught on, but sputtered with
many recessions. The old dream was still alive, the new one still
shaky. (Economists debated tax and monetary policies.)

By the 1960s, the tired old dream of a golden future was dead, stone
dead. We had become dedicated spenders. The economy thrummed like a
new Ferrari. Not a single recession interrupted that prosperous
decade. Society and economy were in sync. Marriages soared. Divorces
were rare. Young families crowded into suburbia, the new paradise
designed for consumption spenders. Millions of ranch houses bought
and furnished with borrowed money created jobs galore. (Economists
proudly announced they had at last conquered depression! Only
recessions remained.)

But the 1960s also revealed the Little King's dark under side.
Excess. The frenzy to get-it-all now led inexorably to a whatever-it-
takes madness, a blatant disregard for our common future. Consumption
had become overconsumption. We polluted our air and water, eroded our
land, tainted our food, endangered other species, neglected
education. And we ignored the impoverished, the old, the young and
the crippled. And saving increasingly gave way to borrowing.

The dream had gone from vision to mania. Dangerously out of control,
it led to the need for change. It was the fourth time since 1790 that
an American Dream had become a mania and triggered the next American
Dream.

Since 1960, the Responsible Villager, as I call it, opposes the
Little King in all that it is and does. Growing with explosive
momentum, the Responsible Villager is winning the heart and mind of
America. In 1960, "environment" was just another word. "The
environment" had not yet been born. Only forty years later, Al Gore,
a candidate known for his strong environmental positions won the
popular vote for president. In 1960, what's-in-it-for-me took top
billing. In the outpouring of communal feeling on September 11, 2001
we saw how far we had come to what's-in-it-for-us.

By 1990, responsible self-interest became as compelling as the mania
for irresponsible self-interest. Two opposing manias created a
perilous split I call schizomania. Extreme irresponsibility produced
economic bedlam -- market bubbles, greedy CEOs grabbing ill-gotten
billions, cooked books and relaxed accounting procedures. At the same
time, exemplars of responsible self-interest demanded and are
beginning to win strict regulations.

As the pressure to get-it-all-now comes under increasing attack,
today's mania for consumption spending must subside. A significant
trend toward "down-scaling" has already been observed.

What's next? Since 1790, every depression occurred during an episode
of schizomania. And every episode produced at least one depression.
This does not mean that a depression is now inevitable. It does mean
that until 2020, in addition to continuing decline in consumer
spending, we should expect skittish investors, booms, busts and an
elevated probability of depression. Depression, not recession.

(Jack Lessinger is Professor Emeritus, Business, Government and
Society, School of Business, University of Washington. His latest
book is SCHIZOMANIA: Split Society, Perilous Economy 1990-2020. More
www.schizomania.com)

Copyright 2003 by Jack Lessinger

Hello Doug,

Welcome to the Schizomania list. I see from your info that you are in
the real estate business. Have you noticed any desire for Penturbia
type locations from your customers?

We haven't had much action on this list yet (I still have hope...),
but by all means feel free to post questions or thoughts. We even
have means to contact the author, Jack Lessinger, if we come up with
a good question we would like him to tackle.

Greg

In the book "Schizomania" Lessinger warns of a potential for economic
depression during the crossover period. The article below echos and
updates that warning...

Greg
****

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356

Economic `Armageddon' predicted
By Brett Arends/ On State Street
Tuesday, November 23, 2004

Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan
Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.

      But you should hear what he's saying in private.

      Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week,
including a group at Fidelity.

      His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance
of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''

      Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has
obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at
one meeting said, ``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it
seemed to me, than in public.''

      Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent
chance that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual
armageddon.''

      The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.

      In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's record trade
deficit means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners buying
T-bills and prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve
Chairman Alan Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates
further and faster than he wants.

      The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their
eyeballs, will get pounded.

      Less a case of ``Armageddon,'' maybe, than of a ``Perfect
Storm.''

      Roach marshalled alarming facts to support his argument.

      To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the
world, he said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every
working day.

      That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings.

      Sustainable? Hardly.

      Meanwhile, he notes that household debt is at record levels.

      Twenty years ago the total debt of U.S. households was equal to
half the size of the economy.

      Today the figure is 85 percent.

      Nearly half of new mortgage borrowing is at flexible interest
rates, leaving borrowers much more vulnerable to rate hikes.

      Americans are already spending a record share of disposable
income paying their interest bills. And interest rates haven't even
risen much yet.

      You don't have to ask a Wall Street economist to know this, of
course. Watch people wielding their credit cards this Christmas.

      Roach's analysis isn't entirely new. But recent events give it
extra force.

      The dollar is hitting fresh lows against currencies from the yen
to the euro.

      Its parachute failed to open over the weekend, when a meeting of
the world's top finance ministers produced no promise of concerted
intervention.

      It has farther to fall, especially against Asian currencies,
analysts agree.

      The Fed chairman was drawn to warn on the dollar, and interest
rates, on Friday.

      Roach could not be reached for comment yesterday. A source who
heard the presentation concluded that a ``spectacular wave of
bankruptcies'' is possible.

      Smart people downtown agree with much of the analysis. It is
undeniable that America is living in a ``debt bubble'' of record
proportions.

      But they argue there may be an alternative scenario to Roach's.
Greenspan might instead deliberately allow the dollar to slump and
inflation to rise, whittling away at the value of today's consumer
debts in real terms.

      Inflation of 7 percent a year halves ``real'' values in a
decade.

      It may be the only way out of the trap.

      Higher interest rates, or higher inflation: Either way, the
biggest losers will be long-term lenders at fixed interest rates.

      You wouldn't want to hold 30-year Treasuries, which today yield
just 4.83 percent.

An interesting take on "Schizomania"...

http://www.independencejournal.com/schizo.htm

The lifestyle companion site to www.urbansurvival.com





Jack Lessinger's vision of America's future

Schizomania



It's perhaps a bit out of character for Independence Journal to write
a book report, but there are darned few books around that give such a
clear set of economic boundaries for our future freedoms as Jack
Lessinger's new book Schizomania.



Lessinger, now professor emeritus of business and history from the
University of Washington is no newcomer to the writing game.  His
book Penturbia, published a dozen years ago has been a classic text
that accurately forecast the rise of the land beyond suburbia.
Driven by the Internet, UPS, and the whole notion of ubiquitous data
access embodied in wireless communications, along with Bill Gate's
vision of .NET™, it's now possible for businesses to exist almost
anywhere.



But let's not get ahead of the story.  Lessinger begins the first
couple of chapters of Schizomania by describing what he classifies as
two paradigms – or ruling manias – that run our world today.



The existing paradigm, the dominant one, had its roots in the big
cities that resulted from industrialization and led to mass
consumption.  Mass consumption, in turn, spawned the modern suburbs.
But in Lessinger's view, the suburb is in serious trouble.  So much
so that we should not be surprised to see suburban housing prices
fall 50% or more, in real terms, within the next 10 years.



The new paradigm, emerging since the Haight-Ashbury days of the
1960's, is the opposite of mass consumerism.  The new paradigm is
worried about environmental issues, long-term sustainable economics,
paring down debt, and most important of all, it's casting off the
yoke of consumerism.



He predicts a decade long showdown between consumerism on the one
hand – promoting the old mass consumption paradigm – and the
Responsible Villager paradigm of thrift and debt free living on the
other.



We may be overstating things a bit labeling this as a watershed
book.  But it goes a long way toward explaining the forces that will
place boundaries around our personal freedoms, especially those
related to consumer choice, in years ahead.



As far as we know, the book is not available from major booksellers
yet, perhaps because of its almost subversively simple approach.  It
can be ordered from Lessinger's web site, www.schizomania.com.



As we relate in another article, "We finally bought the farm"
Lessinger's ideas about growth fit in nicely with our views of the
economy which we've written about on our companion economics site,
www.urbansurvival.com.



If you think you might someday like to escape from the big city and
try your hand at a more relaxed pace of life, then Lessinger's
vision - not to mention his book - are worthy of serious study.





Contact Information:

Publisher: george@...

Editor: elaine@...

Privacy Policy

All contents © 2004 George A. Ure

Sounds like an interesting book. It looks at some of
Lessinger's "Penturbia" theory.

http://www.forbes.com/2004/07/27/cz_rk_0727karlgaard_print.html

Life 2.0
Rich Karlgaard

The following was adapted from the introduction of Life 2.0: How
People Across America Are Transforming Their Lives by Finding the
Where of Their Happiness (Crown Business, $24.95), a new book by Rich
Karlgaard, the Forbes publisher and Digital Rules columnist.

Three years ago a Forbes magazine colleague living in San Francisco
told me that all her thirty-something friends were leaving town.

"Where is everybody going?" I asked.

"You'd be surprised," she said. "Sacramento. Portland. Boise. Tucson.
Smaller places than that, even."

On one level I wasn't surprised. Housing costs in San Francisco had
gone to the moon during the 1990s. The dot-com bust that began in mid-
2000 had done nothing to slow down house-price inflation. Tiny two-
bedroom condos in San Francisco were fetching $600,000. Try paying
the mortgage on that without a job. My colleague's friends simply had
to leave town. They were running out of money.

Yet on another level I was surprised. People who had lived in a
sophisticated city such as San Francisco, I was certain, would hold a
snob's view of "boonyack" towns such as Boise. It would never occur
to fancy urban dwellers to move there. Yet they have moved there--in
droves.

OK. Let's stop here for a reality check.

I realize that "droves" is an imprecise word and, moreover, that out-
migration from a dot-com boomtown such as San Francisco was to be
expected during an economic bust. Also, haven't we heard this turn
before? As I began to study U.S. internal migration patterns and
regional economic development for Life 2.0, I learned that some
carefully reasoned books had appeared during the last 15 years that
had predicted just such an out-migration from cities to smaller
cities and towns. One of them, Penturbia, was written in 1991 by a
University of California professor named Jack Lessinger. Penturbia
asserted that high costs and urban crowding would drive the middle
class out of cities and suburbs.

But it didn't happen. In fact, the booming 1990s economy produced
quite the opposite result. It sucked the professional middle class
into cities and their suburbs. (Was Lessinger wrong or just 15 years
ahead of his time? Good question. I think he was ahead of his time.)

Then in 1998 a futurist named Harry Dent, in a book called The
Roaring 2000s, took a similar tack. He said white-collar
professionals in big cities and suburbs "lived with the daily stress
of trying to handle two imperatives: being a success at work and
creating a comfortable home. For many of us, this has meant buying a
house in the suburbs where we could raise our families safely and
comfortably--and paying for it every day with an exhausting commute."

Ouch. Sound familiar?

Dent went on to say: "We are about to see the next great population
migration in our country, which will be the force driving real-estate
appreciation in the next decade. An enormous number of people will
escape overcrowded, expensive suburbs and move to a variety of small
towns, new-growth cities, exurban areas beyond the suburbs, and even
back to trendy urban areas. Whether you're looking for a new home or
a new investment, you can be among those to reap the huge profits."

My verdict on Dent is that he got it mostly right. What Dent got
wrong is the relationship between the stock market--The Roaring 2000s
foresaw "a Dow that would reach at least 21,500 and possibly 35,000
by the year 2008"--and out-migration. Dent thought a boom and out-
migration marched together. I believe the relationship is exactly the
opposite. A sustained poor or flat stock market is what will trigger
the professional middle-class flight out of cities and suburbs. The
logic is easy to understand. We will suffer with a small house, a
hefty mortgage and a grinding commute if we think by these sacrifices
we can retire by age 55, thanks to our rapidly appreciating house and
retirement portfolio. But take away double-digit annual appreciation
of our two biggest assets and throw in worries about retirement, and
we begin to feel like slaves.

Since Lessinger wrote Penturbia in 1991 and Dent wrote The Roaring
2000s in 1998, these developments have occurred:

In Economics: The stock market may have entered a 15-year period
during which it will underperform relative to the historical average
(the boomlet of 2003 notwithstanding). There goes your portfolio and
retirement savings! As to your salary, well, China, India and other
low-cost nations have entered the scene. They are pouring scores of
millions of hardworking, white-collar workers into the global labor
force. This could dampen American salaries and bonuses for at least a
generation to come.

In Technology: Broadband Internet and search tools such as Google
have made it possible to perform sophisticated white-collar work in
small towns. The long-predicted "death of distance" era has arrived.

In Culture: The sophistication gap between urban areas and smaller
cities and towns has narrowed, thanks to technology (broadband
Internet, cable television, satellite radio, overnight delivery,
etc.). Yet smaller cities and towns remain vastly cheaper from a
housing standpoint. They are also freer of the numerous "status
competitions" (the social pressure to drive a fancy car, enroll the
children in private schools and take European vacations) that further
drive up the cost of professional middle-class life in the big cities
and suburbs.

In Demographics: The median age of America's largest population
bulge, the baby boomers, is now 50. This age group is beset by time
and financial burdens on all sides: college tuition, care for aged
parents and the need to save for retirement. (Most of us are way
behind on that!) Many of America's 77 million baby boomers have
reached the conclusion that they must reduce their household costs in
order to meet their financial obligations and goals.

In Spirituality: America has entered what many observers think is a
Spiritual Great Awakening touched off by a turbulent global economy,
post-Sept. 11, 2001 fears and insecurities, and an aging population
(baby boomers in particular) that feels life's calendar winding down.
I believe this search for meaning will beckon Americans out of
pricey, status-competitive, time-robbing large population centers and
toward more serene and pastoral places.

OK, enough of the theorizing. In Life 2.0 you'll meet real folks who
are living larger lives in smaller places right now--people who have
found a fulfilling Second Act for their lives. I met them during
personal visits over past two years, when I set out in a small
airplane to fly around the country and have a look at how Americans
were coping with major structural changes in the economy. During this
journey I met countless ordinary folks doing stunning, creative
things with their work and lives in places you'd least expect.

My hope is that you'll be inspired by their stories of personal
reinvention and triumph--especially if you are among the millions of
Americans who feel pressured by the costs, treadmills, stresses,
status competition and insecurities of post-boom, post-Sept.11 urban
coastal living. A growing number of Americans are seeking a larger
life in a smaller place. Many are finding it.

Hello Kevin,

Welcome to the Schizomania list. Ralph and I have been the only
members for awhile and it is great to have another.

So have you read Schizomania or Penturbia yet? What are your thoughts
on Lessinger's theories?

Ralph, please feel free to jump in too.

Greg
Schizomania moderator

The Schizomania and Penturbia yahoogroup is still open, just not very
active...yet.

If you've read these books and would like to ask questions or share
your thoughts, please join!

For those who stop by this site and wonder if it is still active...it
is, but just hasn't filled out with members yet.

Filling a list with active members is a magical equation that doesn't
start rolling until a few adventurous folks take a chance and sign up.

So please join and post your thoughts or questions.

Welcome aboard,

Greg
Schizomania moderator

Hi Ralph, Welcome aboard!

I've got a copy of Penturbia from the library that was published in
1991. So the outlook for some counties may have changed a tiny bit,
but since it is based mostly on historical trends it should still be
valuable info. If you look at his website there is a more recent book
about the penturbia counties.

The book I have divides the counties up into 7 catergories. The
category 1 (prime penturbia) counties for IL are: Effingham, Johnson,
and Menard. There are lots of category 2 and 3 counties (secondary
and latent penturbia). Many others are "on the edge", meaning that
growth and planning decisions made now will either push them into the
old suburbia mold or will allow them the capacity to become
penturbias in the future. Many counties with small cities seem to
fall into this category.

If you're thinking of moving I would suggest reading the book, it is
really helpful in being able to evaluate a county or city and make a
good guess on which direction it is headed. Was there a particular
county you are curious about? (I only have the book for another day
or two before it is overdue...)

Greg



--- In schizomania@yahoogroups.com, "Ralph K." <ralphkaz@y...> wrote:
> I have not purchased the book yet, however Dr. Lessinger's theories
> certainly intrigue me.  Would someone please post the county's in
> Illinois that Jack feels are going to realize the most gain from
> the '5th migration' ?
>
> Thanks.

I have not purchased the book yet, however Dr. Lessinger's theories
certainly intrigue me.  Would someone please post the county's in
Illinois that Jack feels are going to realize the most gain from
the '5th migration' ?

Thanks.

THE FIFTH MIGRATION

By Jack Lessinger

Demographers are beginning to collect data and documentation that
proves that the fifth major population disbursement of the United
States is underway. The first migration shifted southward along the
Atlantic seaboard, hemmed in by mountains. The second shift was a
move into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys and on westward. The
third shift cleared the agricultural regions and concentrated the
population in large metropolitan cities. The fourth shift began
slowly, as early as 1920, and peaked in 1960.
This fourth migration was lead by the growing middle class and
returning veterans. People wanted homes and space away from crowded
cities; the flight to the suburbs began. It should be noted that most
people still worked in the city. Commuting became a way of life.
Since the sixties, suburban growth has plateaued and begun to taper
off.
The fifth migration is to small communities beyond the suburbs,
usually 75 to 90 miles outside of large metro centers.
Research confirms that a number of common events occur before and
during each migration. With each shift, a new "leading region" is
established. A "leading region" is an area where population growth is
faster than the national average. Each new leading region, at its
peak, contains approximately 50% of the nations population. If past
history holds true, we can expect a similar occurrence by the year
2020.
Currently, about 41 million people populate small fifth migration
counties. Conservative estimates indicate that the number will grow
to about 100 million by 2020. That means a relocation of about 60
million additional citizens. Dr. Jack Lessinger, of the University of
Washington, is a recognized authority on population migration. He
projects that 1,708 counties will absorb this growth; about 35,000
people per county in 2020.
People relocate for a number of reasons. Most often, it is a desire
to improve standard of living and quality of life. People move for
better jobs, lower cost of living, and better amenities. Retirees
generally pioneer the movement in their search for peaceful closure.
This certainly seems to be the pattern in the 90's.
Each migration has been preceded by a change in technologies,
especially transportation technology. When technology made canal
building possible, vast new land areas were opened. River boats
brought people to the river valleys. The automobile and telephone
sparked the move to suburbia. Interstate systems increased the
velocity and now leads the way to the communities of the fifth
migration. Electronics will accelerate this shift.
A number of occurrences gave rise to the fifth migration. Suburban
areas began to experience high inflation in property costs. Traffic
problems, overcrowding, pollution, and crime moved in on the suburbs.
The problems that had plagued the big cities followed the population
to the suburbs. The middle class began to be squeezed by a rising
cost of living. Some demographers project that the suburbs, which
held 50% of the population in 1970, may dwindle to approximately 30%
by 2020.
The past migrations coincided with periods of prolonged economic
instability. The Depression occurred during the third migration. High
inflation and the onslaught of global competition accompanied the
fourth migration. Corporate downsizing and restructuring of economic
regions will cause the instability during the fifth migration.
One last common factor of migration patterns is that a new kind of
city and a new kind of society was created. Much of this has to do
with the mind set of our citizenry. Each migration and mind set is
unique. The third migration created a large blue collar work force
and a managerial elite. The fourth migration, accompanied by rising
inflation, created a consumption oriented, "get it now" mind set with
the unheeded threat of high levels of personal, governmental, and
corporate debt. The fifth migration appears to be ushering in a mind
set of conservativeness, environmental concern, and a tendency to
save and preserve wealth.
The fifth "leading region" will include selected small towns across
the nation. They will not be typical of the small towns of the 19th
century. This region will be connected to the world by interstate
highways. These small towns will have a cosmopolitan feel; with
theaters, live entertainment, sporting events, good restaurants, good
bookstores, and a diverse culture. They will be near universities and
airports, still accessible to metro centers by a comfortable commute.
The fifth leading region will be wired. Fiber optics, computers,
modems, the Internet, cellular phones, and pagers will make these new
towns different from any our nation has ever seen.
As the economy and corporate America change to compete in a global
marketplace, the towns of the fifth migration will grow and prosper
with new growth industries, new jobs, and new opportunity. New homes,
businesses, and lifestyles will be created, with all the accompanying
ramifications that are associated with such growth.
Retirees will bring financial injection and a wide variety of
experience. They will be more active and involved than their
predecessor generation of retirees. Citizens of the fifth migration
will desire nature outside their window and recreation nearby. Lake
areas, golf courses, and health clubs will be at a premium.
The distinctive form of the new "leading region" is a stimulant to
prosperity. The fifth migration communities will thus be the center
for this growing stimulant.
Community leaders in these regions must understand this migratory
pattern. They must shape their marketing plans and their development
strategies to capitalize on this trend. Some growth will occur
naturally, but those communities that pro-act will capture the lions
share.
(Jack Lessinger is Professor Emeritus, Business, Government and
Society, School of Business, University of Washington. His latest
book is SCHIZOMANIA: Split Society, Perilous Economy 1990-2020. More
www.schizomania.com)

Copyright 2003 by Jack Lessinger

THE COMING DECLINE OF BIG SPENDING AND THE NEXT AMERICAN DREAM

By Jack Lessinger

Credit card in hand, we shop 'til we drop. Keeps the economy humming.
Always has and always will, right? Wrong. The slow sales of Christmas
2002 --"weakest in three decades" (AP) --foreshadow a historic shift
in spending habits. Big Spending as we know it today is an isolated
phenomenon that began after World War II. It ran its course and is
now falling into irrelevance.

In the 19th century, Americans transformed a continent (and created
jobs) by saving and investing in mines, railroads, factories and
cities. They continued to scrimp and save right up to World War II.
Spend good seed capital on a car that doesn't earn a cent of
interest? Nonsense. Buy it on credit and pay interest? Scandalous!
The precious few able to afford more than basic necessities saved and
invested in their golden future --up to 40 percent of their income.
That was the American Dream back then. Save and invest now. Get-it-
all later.

Get-it-all and get it now-today's American Dream-first excited a few
rebellious souls around 1900. The new dream-call it the Little King-
made every consumer a king, a little king. With his little queen, the
new mini-monarch would preside over his mini-kingdom in suburbia.

By the 1920s, ladies in bloomers and bustles metamorphosed into short-
skirted, Charleston-dancing flappers. Black utility Model T's
blossomed into colorful roadsters. Nevertheless, the time-encrusted
injunction to save remained the stronger influence. A dangerous split
was developing. (Economists, failing to see the long-run significance
of that split, predicted continuing prosperity. Certainly through the
1930s!)

By the 1930s, visions of little kingdoms were growing fast, but not
fast enough to rescue the millions of unemployed devastated by the
slowing of demand for more and more basic industry. The new dream
would vastly expand demand (and jobs) for consumer goods-houses,
appliances, cars and later, freeways and malls. But the old dream was
still hale and hearty. The economy was paralyzed by two conflicting
dreams, both equally powerful. (Economists, little inclined to study
dreams, blamed the Great Depression on economic factors -- like the
gold standard or flawed trade policies.)

After World War II, the consumer engine caught on, but sputtered with
many recessions. The old dream was still alive, the new one still
shaky. (Economists debated tax and monetary policies.)

By the 1960s, the tired old dream of a golden future was dead, stone
dead. We had become dedicated spenders. The economy thrummed like a
new Ferrari. Not a single recession interrupted that prosperous
decade. Society and economy were in sync. Marriages soared. Divorces
were rare. Young families crowded into suburbia, the new paradise
designed for consumption spenders. Millions of ranch houses bought
and furnished with borrowed money created jobs galore. (Economists
proudly announced they had at last conquered depression! Only
recessions remained.)

But the 1960s also revealed the Little King's dark under side.
Excess. The frenzy to get-it-all now led inexorably to a whatever-it-
takes madness, a blatant disregard for our common future. Consumption
had become overconsumption. We polluted our air and water, eroded our
land, tainted our food, endangered other species, neglected
education. And we ignored the impoverished, the old, the young and
the crippled. And saving increasingly gave way to borrowing.

The dream had gone from vision to mania. Dangerously out of control,
it led to the need for change. It was the fourth time since 1790 that
an American Dream had become a mania and triggered the next American
Dream.

Since 1960, the Responsible Villager, as I call it, opposes the
Little King in all that it is and does. Growing with explosive
momentum, the Responsible Villager is winning the heart and mind of
America.  In 1960, "environment" was just another word. "The
environment" had not yet been born. Only forty years later, Al Gore,
a candidate known for his strong environmental positions won the
popular vote for president. In 1960, what's-in-it-for-me took top
billing. In the outpouring of communal feeling on September 11, 2001
we saw how far we had come to what's-in-it-for-us.

By 1990, responsible self-interest became as compelling as the mania
for irresponsible self-interest. Two opposing manias created a
perilous split I call schizomania. Extreme irresponsibility produced
economic bedlam -- market bubbles, greedy CEOs grabbing ill-gotten
billions, cooked books and relaxed accounting procedures. At the same
time, exemplars of responsible self-interest demanded and are
beginning to win strict regulations.

As the pressure to get-it-all-now comes under increasing attack,
today's mania for consumption spending must subside. A significant
trend toward "down-scaling" has already been observed.

What's next? Since 1790, every depression occurred during an episode
of schizomania. And every episode produced at least one depression.
This does not mean that a depression is now inevitable. It does mean
that until 2020, in addition to continuing decline in consumer
spending, we should expect skittish investors, booms, busts and an
elevated probability of depression. Depression, not recession.

(Jack Lessinger is Professor Emeritus, Business, Government and
Society, School of Business, University of Washington. His latest
book is SCHIZOMANIA: Split Society, Perilous Economy 1990-2020. More
www.schizomania.com)

Copyright 2003 by Jack Lessinger

Welcome to the "Schizomania" and "Penturbia" book discussion group.

A great feature of this discussion group is that the author,
Professor Jack Lessinger, has agreed to occasionally answer questions
from the group! I figured we could all decide among ourselves which
questions best fit our interests and present one or two to him each
month.

The next few messages will contain articles from Lessinger that
highlight some of the concepts from his book. More articles will be
posted as they become available.

I will post a few bits for us to start discussing soon also.

Greg, group moderator.