<<Model-driven and event-driven architectures are two technologies
expected to have a big impact on developers over the next decade. And
while many IT professionals are in the dark about much of Gartner's
"Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies," these architectures, along
with AJAX apps, have very bright futures.

The Gartner report released last week includes an analysis of 36
technologies and trends that are expected to mature within the next 10
years in a five-step process Gartner calls the "hype cycle."

Emerging trends begin at the "technology trigger" stage with a product
launch, move on to the "peak of inflated expectations" stage thanks to
media-generated buzz, then advance to the "trough of disillusionment"
period when the technology fails to meet developers' expectations,
proceeds to the "slope of enlightenment" phase when IT professionals
continue to experiment and apply the technology despite the decline in
media coverage, and finally peak at the "plateau of productivity"
stage, as the industry absorbs and accepts its advantages. And the
increasing popularity of SOA is responsible for these emerging
technologies.

"SOA&#9472;that's the current big wave that everyone needs to be aware of
and tapped into," said Jackie Fenn, Gartner fellow and creator of the
hype cycle.

While Fenn explains that some enterprises have already begun
implementing service-oriented architectures, many have yet to explore
migration of their event-driven and model-driven apps to SOA. But that
will likely change. "We think this is becoming a hyped and focused-on
approach."

Event-driven architecture (EDA) is a common style for distributed apps
that are typically designed into modular, encapsulated, shareable
components with event services. The services can be created through an
app, an adapter or agent acting non-invasively. According to the
report, those in the financial trading, energy trading,
telecommunications and fraud detection industries have begun using EDA
technology, along with the Department of Homeland Security. But
Gartner says EDA is at least five years from mainstream maturity.

As for Model-driven architecture (MDA), a technology from the Object
Management Group, the process will turn the heads of developers simply
for its increased flexibility through SOA. The technology
distinguishes biz-level functionality from the technical complexity of
its implementation, enabling the apps to be modeled by standards like
Unified Modeling Language. This allows the models to operate free from
potential platform limitations and instantiate them into specific
runtime implementations using a target platform of choice. Fenn says
both MDAs and EDAs will find their niche with developers largely
thanks to SOA and their bottom-line boosting perks.

And Fenn says a third "high impact" technology, AJAX, will soon enough
prove influential to the dev lifecycle and should reach maturity
within the next two years.

"AJAX gives you that more responsive user experience in the browser
environment," Fenn says.

The Web 2.0 technology is a combination of processes that developers
use to increase functionality for their end users, metamorphosing a
limited and frustrating Web app into a more readable service. While
the improvements may not be extreme, the report says AJAX apps have
the ability to raise bottom lines by enhancing the user-friendliness
and reliability of such Web apps.

The "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2006" is one of 78 `hype
cycle' reports Gartner released this year. The report evaluated nearly
2,000 information technologies and trends among more than 75
industries. Gartner analysts reviewed and debated each technology
within a "cross-industry view," rating performance, services and how
each technology will impact an org's bottom line.

According to Fenn, those emerging technologies deemed "high impact"
will pay the biggest dividends for businesses over the next decade.
But while each trend's maturity rate remains constant, she cautions
that each technology's benefits will vary throughout industries.

"Be selectively aggressive&#9472;identify which technologies could benefit
your business, and evaluate them earlier in the hype cycle," she says.
"For technologies that will have a lower impact on your business, let
others learn the difficult lessons, and adopt the technologies when
they are more mature.">>

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Gervas