FYI,

"Review: Out of Gas"
Space Review
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/231/1

: In David Goodstein's Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil, a grim
: picture is painted of "Civilization as we know it" coming to an
: end. The basic argument is as follows: "In the 1950s, M. King
: Hubbert predicted that the rate at which oil would be extracted
: from wells in the United States would peak around 1970 and decline
: rapidly after that." The so-called "Hubbert's peak" in extraction
: occurs when about half the oil is gone. Hubbert's prediction for
: the US was spot on. Goodstein extrapolates a global Hubbert's peak
: and comes up with sometime between now and 2020.

: This might open up a case for lunar platinum exports (see "Review:
: Moonrush", The Space Review, August 16, 2004) and solar satellites.

: If Earth-based solar is good, space-based solar could be better.
: Goodstein says that about 800 solar satellites the size of
: Manhattan in geosynchronous orbit would do the trick. At $1,000 per
: kilogram we would only need to spend $15 trillion or so on launch
: costs to heft 15 billion kilograms of solar cells, which would only
: be about one-fourth as much as 200,000 square kilometers because
: there's about four times as much light up there with no clouds and
: no night. Throw in another $10 trillion for the cells and some more
: for the microwave ground stations and we have a pretty good case
: for solar orbital.

: So the markets say that Goodstein is wrong when he predicts a major
: social upheaval in the transition away from oil.

: Solar satellites may do better than terrestrial solar, but that is
: not really relevant until the price of oil hits $0.80/liter or the
: price of space access drops.

Mark Reiff