markreiff wrote:

>
>: So the markets say that Goodstein is wrong when he predicts a major
>: social upheaval in the transition away from oil.
>
>
A little too much faith in the markets there.... It's been widely
reported that major political upheaval in Saudi Arabia could quickly
quadruple world oil prices. They're already heading up without that
help. Market faith ignores the time-scales for change: trillions of
dollars of capital investment cannot be replaced overnight in a switch
to new, substitute, technology. The transition to either renewables or
other oil alternatives necessarily will take decades, and no matter what
we do will at times be disruptive when demand outstrips affordable supply.

By the way, I also reviewed Goodstein's book, after some back-and-forth
email with him, a few months back:

http://www.sciscoop.com/story/2004/5/5/204747/7898

Arthur Smith