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Check the software matches the rules   Message List  
Reply | Forward Message #1410 of 1482 |
Re: [stv-voting] Check the software matches the rules

It appears that the mixup may have been a parameter setting.

If you compare the results from Burlington, VT, which used AV for its
mayoral election in 2009.

http://www.burlingtonvotes.org/20090303/2009%20Burlington%20Mayor%20Round.htm

And Cambridge, MA which used multi-seat STV for its city council
elections in 2007.

http://www.cambridgema.gov/election/Electionresults_archives.cfm

And Aspen, CO which used AV for its mayoral elections and city council
elections in 2009.

http://www.aspenpitkin.com/depts/38/

They were all apparently done with the same vote tallying software. In
Burlington the "system" was "Instant Runoff Voting", and had no
parameters for handling surpluses. In Cambridge and Aspen it was
"Choice Voting", and the paremeters described for handling surpluses
(or avoiding surpluses). If you follow the link at the bottom of the
result pages, you will see that "Choice Voting" = multi-seat STV.

Cambridge, like the Republic of Ireland, transfers selected ballots
from surpluses, rather than all ballots from a transfer with a
fractional transfer value.

But Cambridge prevents surpluses on subsequent counts. Ballots are
transferred serially, and once a candidate reaches the quota during a
count, subsequent transfers to that candidate are redirected to the
next preference. If all expressed preferences have been exhausted, a
ballot that forms part of the quota, and does have further preference
may be transferred in place. If you look at the Cambridge results,
you will notice that elected candidates always exactly reached the
quota, since any ballots that would have formed a surplus or further
distributed in the same count.

That is what happened in Aspen. The exclusion of the 3rd place
candidate caused the leading candidate to reach the quota in a fairly
close race. This was after 93.9% of the 3rd place candidate's votes
had been transferred. The remaining 6.1% of the ballots were
redistributed to the 2nd place candidate or exhausted.

Overall, it changed the distribution of Erspamer's votes from the
actual:

Ireland 40%; Marks 43%; exhausted 17%, to that shown on election night
of Ireland 34%; Marks 47%; and exhausted 19%. Thus the election night
results were not totally implausible.

Had the count been something like Ireland 49%; Marks 31%, and Erspamer
20% before Erspamer's elimination, the election night results could
have shown Marks receiving 90%+ of Erspamer's transfers, and
consequently almost catching Ireland.

Cambridge has an additional quirk. They continue to transfer ballots
even after it is impossible for a candidate to be elected (eg when N+1
candidates are either elected or continuing). In Cambridge, the
ballots of the last placed candidate are formally transferred. In a
multi-candidate STV election, this will tend to cause all elected
candidates to achieve the quota (see 10th round of the 2007 Cambridge
election).

But in the city council elections in Aspen, the winning candidate did
not reach the quota after elimination of the 3rd place candidate
(there were more candidates running for city council, and Aspen used a
weird way of applying AV, so that more exhausted preferences were
likely). So in those races, the ballots of the 2nd place candidate
was redistributed, which pushed the winning candidate up to the quota,
but then caused most ballots to be exhausted since there were NO
continuing candidates. As a result, all elected candidates in Aspen
received exactly 1273 votes on election night.

On Thu, 28 May 2009 23:20:59 -0000, "James Gilmour"
<jgilmour@...> wrote:

>City of Aspen Press Release:
>Mayoral Vote Tally Corrected; Outcome Stays the Same
> http://theredant.squarespace.com/storage/TallyCorrectedTB.pdf
>
>This should be a wake-up call to all who are working on or using computer
programs to count STV ballots.
>
>It is essential that the algorithm in the program implements the specified
election rules exactly. Ideally, all programs used in public elections should
be independently certified against the relevant election rules before they are
used.
>
>The feature that reportedly caused the problem here is specific to the
Cambridge MA election rules for multi-seat STV elections. This feature is of no
relevance for single-seat STV elections and should not have been enabled for a
count of a single-seat election.
--
Jim Riley



Fri May 29, 2009 10:17 pm

jimrtex
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Message #1410 of 1482 |
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City of Aspen Press Release: Mayoral Vote Tally Corrected; Outcome Stays the Same http://theredant.squarespace.com/storage/TallyCorrectedTB.pdf This should be...
James Gilmour
jgilmour2001
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May 28, 2009
11:21 pm

Software endorsed by the Electoral Reform Society has been through a validation process, thanks to Brian Wichmann. Colin Rosenstiel...
Colin Rosenstiel
rosenstiel@...
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May 29, 2009
1:11 am

It appears that the mixup may have been a parameter setting. If you compare the results from Burlington, VT, which used AV for its mayoral election in 2009. ...
Jim Riley
jimrtex
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May 29, 2009
10:19 pm

These observations are very interesting but the incident in Aspen cannot be dismissed simply as a mix-up in the parameter setting. It is irresponsible...
James Gilmour
jgilmour2001
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May 30, 2009
11:26 am

I was not dismissing it as simply a mix-up in the parameter settings. As I noted, the same software (apparently) was used in Burlington, VT two months ago for...
Jim Riley
jimrtex
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May 30, 2009
11:23 pm

Jim Apologies fro being so long in replying, but I didn't loose sight of it because you have raised several interesting issues. ... So the fault was to select...
James Gilmour
jgilmour2001
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Jul 30, 2009
4:48 pm

On Thu, 30 Jul 2009 17:46:07 +0100, "James Gilmour" ... AFAIK, whether an election is counted as a "Choice Election" or an "Instant Runoff Voting" is itself a...
Jim Riley
jimrtex
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Jul 31, 2009
2:23 pm

Jim Riley > Sent: Friday, July 31, 2009 3:22 PM <CUT> ... This is also done in Ireland where the ballots are randomised before the first sort. That order...
James Gilmour
jgilmour2001
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Jul 31, 2009
4:36 pm

... Although the NI rules still follow Newland and Britton, first edition (1973), they differ in some other respects that are significant. NI handles full...
Colin Rosenstiel
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Aug 1, 2009
5:13 pm

Colin Rosenstiel > Sent: Saturday, August 01, 2009 6:11 PM ... Colin raises an interesting, but separate, point. In fact these various sets of rules are full...
James Gilmour
jgilmour2001
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Aug 2, 2009
3:09 pm

I forgot to mention that I thought the changes in the NI rules were the work of Pat Bradley, now retired Chief Electoral Officer. Colin Rosenstiel...
Colin Rosenstiel
rosenstiel@...
Send Email
Aug 2, 2009
5:48 pm

Colin Rosenstiel > Sent: Sunday, August 02, 2009 6:43 PM ... Yes, I think you are probably right, Colin. I should have checked ALL the documents in my...
James Gilmour
jgilmour2001
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Aug 2, 2009
6:55 pm

... I think the change was made in 1985. Colin Rosenstiel...
Colin Rosenstiel
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Aug 2, 2009
8:43 pm

On Sun, 2 Aug 2009 16:09:29 +0100, "James Gilmour" ... Was this system also used in the early (STV) elections of the Northern Ireland Parliament? Have the...
Jim Riley
jimrtex
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Aug 3, 2009
11:37 pm

Jim Riley > Sent: Tuesday, August 04, 2009 12:37 AM ... Almost certainly - but the relevant legislation is not available on-line. The Government of Ireland...
James Gilmour
jgilmour2001
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Aug 5, 2009
11:04 pm
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